Well, we have now arrived at a difficult phase in regards to this hurricane - the waiting game.

Should I stay or should I go?

This is a small window of opportunity.

This morning the models have shifted the storm south, slamming into Nicaragua/Honduras and emerging the Gulf of Honduras briefly before entering Belize in the deep south.

Of course as the eyewall collapses and regenerates this track can change, fluctuations in speed of forward motion will affect the direction too.

We'll be keeping our eyes on this one today.

Continue to pray, it might work and spare us the brunt of this monster.

I wouldn't attempt to aid on such a life or death decision, but the good news is Felix has gone way south of track. And it's a good thing because he has become like Wilma at her worst with a devilishly tight eye and compact category 5 shape. The good thing is it looks like a southern track into Nicaragua/Honduras has established, possibly clearing Belize of the worst of any direct hit. BUT - hurricanes do strange things and can change course suddenly. ALSO they are still saying it will reemerge and hit very southern Belize after going back out over water from Honduras. So if it doesn't pull up by later today you could start feeling better in northern Belize.

There's going to be hell where this hits in Nicaragua.

Yes the storm has moved south. It is imperative that we in Belize do not let our guard down. LOVE FM is encouraging all Belizeans to stay on alert. The storm could go into the Bay of Honduras and sneak back up on us.

Remember Mitch, or was it Keith - the one that appeared to miss us completely then realised its mistake and came back for another go, and once it had found us decided to stay for a while. I wasn't here then, but people who were speak of it in awe.

Believe that was Mitch... Barefoot Skinny wrote a song about 'him'.. and there were paper placemats that showed the dance around Belize.. don't know if any of those are still in existance. Maybe ask at BC's, think they had one posted on the wall for some time.
Yes never too soon to let down your guard when a hurricane is in the neighbourhood.
Gail

Here is a good link for historical info
http://belizetrip0.tripod.com/belizeweather/id1.html

It was Mitch that did the dance around Belize

At the moment, Felix is aimed squarely at those of us in the south (I am between Dangriga and Placencia). But...

Felix is narrow (like Iris was) -- only 30 mile radius hurricane winds and about 100 mile radius TS -- so: devastating right where it lands and just a lot of wet and blow to each side.

And, from where it sits now (barring a Mitch) it will be scraping Honduras, meaning...

An inch further south and it'll fizzle out over Honduras (mudslides and loss of life there), an inch further north and it stays more over water and some place in southern Belize gets creamed, and another inch north of that and it wheels up to y'all there in the north and we southerners are getting off easy again...

Of course, this all presumes no unexpected change in the track between now and Wednesday morning.

Yeah, right.

'Lena

Regarding the stay-or-go quandry:

At present, I myself am up in the Seattle area on business and faced with the same question. I have decided not to go until afterward, if needed.

My reasoning is that, as uncertain as these tracks can be, and especially as narrow as Felix is, the probabilty of any particular village being hit is small.

Of course, some village is gonna get it in the teeth.

'Lena

Just a reminder to tune into reef radio for updates. Jim Janmohamed was speaking earlier. he is head of NEMO here and very solid information.

http://reefradiofm.tripod.com/

I am also doing updates on my blog http://tacogirlblog.blogspot.com/ so people can check or write comments in regarding people and information.

Still headed for Nicaragua and not pulling up. A pressure rise has occurred with wind decrease (slight weakening). Belizians should hope Honduras will rip Felix apart. That, unfortunately, will involve a bad situation for Hondurans.