Hurricane Felix Discussion Number 9
5:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007

there has been rapid strengthening of the hurricane today. Felix
has a spectacular presentation on satellite images with a well-
defined eye embedded in a circular central dense overcast. The
hurricane hunter crew reported a stadium effect in the eye and that
the eye diameter had shrunk to 12 N mi. The Air Force plane also
measured a peak 700 mb flight level wind of 132 kt and...for a
system of such convective vigor...the 90 per cent ratio of surface
to flight level winds should certainly apply here. This would
equate to peak surface winds of about 120 kt. A GPS dropsonde in
the northern eyewall measured a surface wind of 128 kt but this is
a spot wind that is not necessarily representative of a 1-minute
average. Thus the current intensity is set at 120 kt. A central
pressure of 957 mb was measured by dropsonde...with 15 kt winds at
the surface. So the minimum pressure is estimated to be slightly
lower or 956 mb. This corresponds to a fall in central pressure at
a rate of 3.4 mb per hour over the past 7 hours or so...which is
one of the more rapid deepening rates we have observed. Felix will
remain in a very low shear tropospheric environment and will be
passing over waters of extremely high oceanic heat content over the
next couple of days. In addition...to exacerbate the situation...
there is a warm eddy over the central Caribbean that Felix is
projected to move over in 12 hours or so. The official intensity
forecast could be conservative and there is certainly the potential
for US to have another category five hurricane on our hands before
all is said and done.

A swift west-northwestward motion...285/17...continues. I have made
essentially no change to the track forecast and the reasoning
behind it. A well-established deep layer ridge to the north of
Felix should more or less maintain the current motion for the next
day or two. Some slowing of the forward speed is called for by day
3 as the ridge weakens. The exact fate of Felix over the Gulf of
Mexico remains somewhat uncertain since there is some possibility
that a trough over the central U.S. Could erode the ridge more than
currently anticipated. However it should be noted that none of the
dynamical track guidance models turn Felix significantly to the
right through 120 hours. In fact...the latest GFDL model run has
shifted well to the south of the other guidance. Again...because
of the uncertainties...we advise against putting too much emphasis
on the exact NHC forecast track at 4 and 5 days.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 02/2100z 13.6n 72.0w 120 kt
12hr VT 03/0600z 14.1n 74.5w 125 kt
24hr VT 03/1800z 14.8n 78.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 04/0600z 15.4n 81.1w 135 kt
48hr VT 04/1800z 16.0n 83.5w 135 kt
72hr VT 05/1800z 17.3n 87.7w 135 kt
96hr VT 06/1800z 19.5n 91.5w 80 kt
120hr VT 07/1800z 21.5n 95.0w 90 kt


$$
forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Felix Special Discussion Number 10

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007

reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Felix
has intensified and is now a category five hurricane. The aircraft
reported peak flight-level winds of 152 kt...with peak SFMR winds
of 142 kt in the southwest quadrant. Higher SFMR winds were found
in the northeast quadrant...up to 163 kt...but these may have been
contaminated by groupel. A dropsonde released in the southwest
quadrant landed in the northeast quadrant...and this drop yielded a
surface estimate of 139 kt based on the lowest 150 M layer average.
Based on these data...the peak surface winds are estimated to be at
least 145 kt. An eye sonde measured a surface pressure of 936 mb
with surface winds of 24 kt. Because of the extreme turbulence and
groupel that the aircraft experienced...the mission is being
aborted and the aircraft is returning to St. Croix.

This special advisory is being issued to update the initial and
forecast intensities. No other changes to the forecast are being
made. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the
scheduled intermediate advisory.




Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 03/0000z 13.8n 72.9w 145 kt
12hr VT 03/0600z 14.1n 74.5w 150 kt
24hr VT 03/1800z 14.8n 78.0w 145 kt
36hr VT 04/0600z 15.4n 81.1w 145 kt
48hr VT 04/1800z 16.0n 83.5w 145 kt
72hr VT 05/1800z 17.3n 87.7w 135 kt
96hr VT 06/1800z 19.5n 91.5w 80 kt
120hr VT 07/1800z 21.5n 95.0w 90 kt


$$
forecaster Franklin/Brown

Hurricane Felix Discussion Number 11


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007


since the time of the last reconnaissance penetration of Felix at
23z...the satellite presentation has not changed appreciably...with
the highest objective Dvorak raw T numbers reaching t7.3 around
00z. Given no net trend in the satellite presentation since the
time of the last fix...the initial intensity is held at 145 kt.
The outflow pattern remains impressive...and Felix has yet to pass
over the very high heat content waters of the western Caribbean.
Latest microwave imagery does not show concentric eyewall
structure...so there could be a little more short-term
intensification. There do not appear to be any large-scale factors
to cause appreciable weakening until the hurricane interacts with
the land mass of Central America.

The initial motion is 280/18. There has been a slight acceleration
over the last 12 hours as Felix moves to the south of a deep-layer
anticyclone. This pattern is expected to break down only very
slightly over the next couple of days...enough only to slow the
forward speed a bit...before Felix moves to the south of additional
ridging in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Little change in heading is
expected over the next three days. After that...it remains unclear
whether there will be any interaction between the hurricane and a
mid-level trough forecast to be moving through the Southern Plains
and the Gulf states during days 4-5. Model guidance...which was in
good agreement six hours ago...is more diverse now. The major
model shift is with the GFS...which now keeps Felix over Central
America and out of the Bay of Campeche. The official forecast is
shifted a little bit southward...but still lies in the northern half
of the guidance envelope.




Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 03/0300z 13.9n 73.9w 145 kt
12hr VT 03/1200z 14.5n 76.6w 150 kt
24hr VT 04/0000z 15.0n 79.8w 145 kt
36hr VT 04/1200z 15.6n 82.8w 145 kt
48hr VT 05/0000z 16.2n 85.2w 145 kt
72hr VT 06/0000z 17.5n 89.0w 135 kt...inland
96hr VT 07/0000z 19.5n 93.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 08/0000z 21.5n 96.5w 90 kt


$$
forecaster Franklin

WTNT31 KNHC 030256
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HONDURAS AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
HURRICANE FELIX MOVES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMEMLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...
550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 625 MILES...1010 KM
...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER FELIX IS EXPECTED
TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...13.9 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT31 KNHC 031155
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY
WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON
WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Here's the latest tracking information showing Felix farther south and due to weaken over Guatemala and intersecting Belize south of Dangriga and Punta Gorda.

http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm

HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND REMAINS A
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS NICARAGUA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
585 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY
FOUR OR FIVE STATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...14.3 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Hi Jesse, my son and daughter-in-law are on Banyon Bay. Any new news about evacuations? tnx

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