Portofino Resort- Now with a new BEACH BAR!!
Topic Options
#254573 - 10/27/07 11:31 PM 90L
Marty Online   happy

A surface low pressure system (90L), near 16N 71W, about 150 miles south of the Haiti/Dominican Republic border, is moving west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain continuing to affect the region. Thunderstorms have gotten more organized in the past few hours, and a more circular center has developed. Wind shear has fallen to 20-25 knots this afternoon, and is expected to fall below 15 knots on Sunday. This should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression on Sunday.

This morning's 12Z (8am EDT) computer model forecasts have made a major change: the three major intensity forecast models--the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models--all agree that 90L will intensify into a hurricane. The GFDL and HWRF predict 90L will move northwesterly across Haiti and western Cuba, and into the Bahamas on Tuesday, and intensify into a hurricane over the central Bahamas on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure would then swing 90L northeastwards out to sea. This forecast track seems unreasonable, as 90L has headed more to the west today than these models predicted.

The ECMWF and GFS models predict 90L will track along the length of Cuba early next week, then pass within 50 miles of Miami on Thursday before recurving northeastwards out to sea. These models do not intensify 90L into a hurricane, due to the amount of time the storm spends over the mountainous terrain of Cuba. This is a reasonable forecast, should 90L track over Cuba for a long distance.

I believe the forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which predict a more southerly track into the Western Caribbean, just south of Cuba, are the most reasonable ones. This track would favor 90L developing into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, since the heat content of the waters in the Western Caribbean is high.

One possible wild card is the disturbed area of weather that has formed in the extreme Western Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance is currently very disorganized, but is under only 10 knots of wind shear. If it starts to develop early next week, it could alter the path and development of 90L.

I am expecting 90L to develop into a tropical storm by Monday, and a into hurricane later in week, if the system does not track directly along the length of Cuba. The eastern 2/3 of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm affecting them on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, these regions, plus western Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas, and Mexico's Yucatan, are at risk of a hurricane.

#254604 - 10/28/07 03:10 PM Re: 90L [Re: Marty]
elbert Offline
Where is that good tracking map ?
The Dive Shops Daily Blog

#254606 - 10/28/07 03:15 PM Re: 90L [Re: elbert]
elbert Offline

Edited by elbert (10/28/07 03:18 PM)
The Dive Shops Daily Blog

#254623 - 10/28/07 04:40 PM Re: 90L [Re: elbert]
Bill Mc Ghee Offline
Never Use money to measure wealth

#254624 - 10/28/07 04:45 PM Re: 90L [Re: Bill Mc Ghee]
elbert Offline
Yeah , good one, thanks!
The Dive Shops Daily Blog

#254797 - 10/30/07 12:11 AM Re: 90L [Re: elbert]
Portofino Offline
I always watch Weather Underground - have the RSS-Feed in my bookmarks bar and always watch the computer models: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ When a storm gets close I switch over to Crown Weather as they have a collection of the most interesting maps from different sites: http://crownweather.com/tropical.html
Portofino Restaurant & Beach Resort
North Ambergris Caye
Facebook: http://facebook.com/PortofinoBelize

#254878 - 10/30/07 04:41 PM Re: 90L [Re: Portofino]
elbert Offline
Thanks , I bookmarked those as well.
The Dive Shops Daily Blog

#254921 - 10/30/07 08:20 PM Re: 90L [Re: elbert]
seashell Offline
Sure wish you guys would start a new thread. Every time I see this one come up, my heart gives a hard thump. So? 90L is *not* threatening Belize, is that correct?
A fish and a bird can fall in love, but where will they build their nest?


Click for excellent scuba lessons with Elbert Greer!

Things to do

Daily News
Daily Weather

Classified Ads
San Pedro Sun
Ambergris Today
SP Town Council
Channel 7
Channel 5
Love FM
The Reporter
Caye Caulker

TV Newscasts
Radio Stations

Click for our
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites

Event Guides
Event Calendar
Specials & Events
Things to Do
iTravel Belize
Paradise Theater

San Pedro Scoop!
Tia Chocolate
My Beautiful Belize
I-Travel Belize
Belize Adventure
Belize Hub
Romantic Travel
Bound for Belize
Conch Creative
As The Coconuts Drop
More Blogs...
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites
Chaa Creek is an award-winning luxury Belize Resort, rated as one of the worlds best Eco Lodges. We are a pioneer in adventure travel to Belize since 1981!
White Sands Dive Shop - 5 Star PADI Dive Facility - Daily diving, SCUBA instruction and Snorkeling
Caribbean Inspired All Natural Condiments & Spice Blends, Over 100 are Gluten Free!
We manage a variety of homes, apartments, condos and commercial properties here on Ambergris Caye. Our minimum lease on ALL properties is six months.
Conch Shell Inn: All rooms are right on the beach in the heart of San Pedro, so within walking distance to anything and everything!!
Lilí Alphonse has snorkel equipment to fit anyone as well as Marine Park Tickets and flotation devices to assist those not as experienced.
Coastal Xpress offers a daily scheduled ferry run to most resorts, restaurants and private piers on the island of Anbergris Caye. We also offer  private and charter water taxi service.
Mini Chat

Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
Who's Online
1 registered (Marty), 47 Guests and 9 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Stats
18,722 Registered Members
44 Forums
64,389 Topics
463,259 Posts

Most users ever online: 1,262 @ 06/10/07 07:16 PM

AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com SanPedroDaily.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.