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#259365 - 12/11/07 03:17 PM What the Heck?
SimonB Offline
WTNT32 KNHC 110232
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1100 PM AST MON DEC 10 2007

...LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DE
MANZANILLO AT THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLGA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM...EAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
300 MILES...485 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE
CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT...AND
NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER APPROACHES THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41043 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 38 MPH...61 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 5 METERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. ST.
THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1006.4 MB...29.72 INCHES.

SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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#259367 - 12/11/07 03:23 PM Re: What the Heck? [Re: SimonB]
Otteralum Offline
dang! was up with that?
_________________________
I will have a Belikin -- put it on klcman's tab.

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#259370 - 12/11/07 03:29 PM Re: What the Heck? [Re: Otteralum]
SimonB Offline
Thankfully the water is too cold for it to develop into anything.

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#259402 - 12/11/07 07:15 PM Re: What the Heck? [Re: SimonB]
divingcowgirl Offline
No kidding!
_________________________
Take the road less traveled

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#259416 - 12/11/07 09:12 PM Re: What the Heck? [Re: SimonB]
Bill Mc Ghee Offline
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/17L.OLGA/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

Looks like you might want to be ready for 25/30 kt winds. This thing is on a straight course and doesn't look like it's veering off at all.
_________________________
Never Use money to measure wealth

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#259428 - 12/11/07 10:46 PM Re: What the Heck? [Re: Bill Mc Ghee]
SimonB Offline
25 to 30 is nothing but good windsurfing weather.

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#259433 - 12/11/07 10:57 PM Re: What the Heck? [Re: SimonB]
Bill Mc Ghee Offline
Then you going to have lots of fun next week. smile
_________________________
Never Use money to measure wealth

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#259488 - 12/12/07 03:03 AM Re: What the Heck? [Re: Bill Mc Ghee]
Amanda Syme Offline
Oh man... this sucks. The kids have an outdoor play on friday night and their Xmas dance show saturday night at central park.

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#259491 - 12/12/07 03:32 AM Re: What the Heck? [Re: Amanda Syme]
Marty Offline
super minor it appears. winds 25-35 knots as far as navy shows it, thru the 14th at 6pm. just west of Georgetown.

here's another set of numbers

SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
2100 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007

INITIAL 11/2100Z 18.5N 68.8W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.5N 71.4W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.6N 74.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 13/0600Z 18.9N 77.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/1800Z 19.2N 80.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
============================
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 68.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.5N 71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...210NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.6N 74.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.9N 77.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.2N 80.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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#259493 - 12/12/07 03:37 AM Re: What the Heck? [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


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