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#2711 - 10/01/00 09:54 PM 3pm Official reports
Marty Offline
<img align=right width=201 height=149 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/sun4pclouds.jpg">early report on 3pm official reports, main printout not ready yet:
wobbling westward into belize:
4pm
17.9 87.9

slight jog to west. right over san pedro.

winds down from 135 to 125
category 3 now
951mb
rainfall over 20 inches
sustained winds of 120 mph in San Pedro

here's the report:
HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000
<br clear=all>
<img align=right width=194 height=145 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/tropsatsun4psm.jpg">
...KEITH EDGING VERY SLOWLY ONSHORE...POUNDING BELIZE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM
NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
<br clear=all>
<img align=right width=226 height=334 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/GOES5sm.jpg">
KEITH IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SAN
PEDRO ON AMBERGRIS CAY...IN THE WEST EYEWALL OF KEITH...RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WITH THE SLOW MOTION
OF THE HURRICANE...DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE PATH
OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 2O INCHES.
<br clear=all>
<img align=right width=231 height=194 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/10-14pstrike.gif">
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...17.9 N... 87.9 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 951 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000

KEITH IS WEAKENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF EFFECTS. RECON REPORTS
THAT THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 950 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 109 KT. WITH A PORTION OF THE EYEWALL OVER LAND
TODAY...THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT KEITH IS EXPERIENCING SOME UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE
DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS EAST...AND THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST IS
BEING RESTRICTED AS WELL. A RECENT DROPSONDE REPORTED A LOW-LEVEL
LAYER-MEAN WIND OF 119 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT
100 KT. WITH A RECENT REPORT FROM AMBERGRIS CAY OF 120 MPH...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 110 KT AT THIS TIME. KEITH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MORE OF ITS CIRCULATION EDGES ONSHORE.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
THE GULF COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND SOME
REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AFTER A BRIEF WOBBLE TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLIER TODAY...KEITH HAS
RETURNED TO A GENERAL MOTION OF 270/2. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT THE UKMET AND AVN SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND INCREASE
THE STEERING FLOW SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. THE UKMET BUILDS THIS
RIDGE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE AVN AND AS A RESULT ITS TRACK IS FARTHER
TO THE WEST THAN THE AVN. THE NEW GFDL IS NOT AS FAST AS ITS
PREDECESSOR AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WITH THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION...DEVASTATING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE PATH OF KEITH.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     01/2100Z 17.9N  87.9W   110 KTS
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N  88.0W    95 KTS
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.6N  88.3W    80 KTS...INLAND
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 20.3N  88.6W    50 KTS...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 22.0N  89.5W    45 KTS
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  91.5W    75 KTS
  
</font>


[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]

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#2712 - 10/01/00 10:17 PM Re: 3pm Official reports
Marty Offline
updated with pics

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#2713 - 10/01/00 11:54 PM Re: 3pm Official reports
Anonymous
Can't thank you enough for the reports! What a blessing all of you are to those of us who seek updates. No more questions from here. I'll just read what you send.

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