It is officially time for you to dust off your hurricane plans, stock up and be prepared to take care of yourself and possibly others if the need arises.

And if that isn't enough to get you up and moving:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html

Look at today's discussion (May 19th) might turn out to be nothing....

Good site, thanks Amanda. A definite "watch".

GFS model still predicting some tropical action off the coast of Belize in about a week.

Just keep a wary eye and please seriously think about formulating your hurricane evacuation plan. Even if you plan to evacuate you should consider storing some basic hurricane supplies during the season. If we are caught off-guard, or the conditions become too dangerous too fast you might not be able to leave the island and will need to hunker down. So the best advice you can ever get is BE PREPARED. If you can take care of yourself then you will not be a burden to others. And if you are prepared you can lend assistance if necessary to others that are less fortunate or able bodied.

This is going to be my first year in a hurricane zone, and even after reading everything I can, I'm still freaking out!

How many people stay on the island?

Hi Scott

Don't freak out - NEMO (the national emergency management organization) is conducting exercises right now in preparation for the season.

If we are threatened then all low lying coastal areas and the cayes are ordered to evacuate. This is a mandatory order. I would highly recommend that you make a plan of evacuation. AND have a plan B back up plan if you can't leave.

The island would have police & BDF soldiers on the island and curfews would be imposed for those that stay. How many? Who knows, I think there were about 2,000 residents that remained when Wilma threatened 2 years ago. I wasn't here for Dean last year.

It seems like every expat I talk to stays? I have an invitation to go with a local family to their house in Belmopan, but I'm positive that that house will be brimming with human beings, and the idea of being trapped there for a week or more could be a nightmare in the making.

I live in a cement building, and have already collected all my supplies. I've just never been through anything like this, and I hear people talking about having hurricane parties? That just seems insane to me?

What else are you going to do while sitting around? Worry? If you decide to stay you have to live with the consequences, may as well make the best of it. Just make sure you're not getting tanked up like some and become a danger to yourself and others if the sh_t hits the fan.

Who am I kidding!? I'm going to run so fast to Belmopan there will be a smoking trail behind me!

So far we have flashlights, dot lights and lasko soy drink powder. A bit behind on stocking up food stuff this year.

Thanks for the reminder Amanda.

Scott last year we stayed for both and it was very good practice. Our friends had been through Wilma so they were coaching us.

No sooner did we get half unpacked from Dean when we had to pack it all up again for Felix.

Remember experiencing some winds or seas from a storm isn't the same as experiencing a direct hit.

Depending on the size of the storm and the eyewall you only need to be a few miles away from the strongest winds to simply have a mild effect - such as San Pedro saw in Dean last year. 100 mph winds coming from the north is not the same as 140 mph winds coming from all directions in rotation. Extremely different circumstances.

It's hard to make the judgement call on whether to stay or go, expecially since you really need to make the decision before you are all that sure about a hit or a miss.
If you are not prepared and do not know what to expect or do, it's really best for you to evacuate. You will be safer that way, and those who are left behind will be able to focus on their own survival.
For those who are new to this concern, search old threads here on the messge board - you will find lots of advice, lists of things to have on hand etc.
The hurricane is danger #1 --- if there is a hit, the aftermath is a real headache. Distribution of goods is disrupted and in the case of Keith, some of us were without power for over 6 weeks. A large part of the preparation is stocking up on stuff for afterwards.

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Monday, May 26, 2008 725 am EDT

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This morning's surface tropical weather analysis showed a frontal system positioned across the northern part of the Caribbean Sea, a high pressure ridge that stretches from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward into the southeastern United States and two tropical waves, one over the central Caribbean and the other about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands. It should be noted that there is an area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific about 400 miles south of Tehuantepec, Mexico tracking eastward. This low pressure system may track into the southwestern Caribbean by the end of this week and be the trigger for some type of tropical cyclone development either in the extreme eastern Pacific or the southwestern Caribbean late this week. Infared satellite imagery showed plenty of dry air across the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic and this is unfavorable for any type of development. IR satellite imagery did show some moisture over the deep southwest Caribbean and wind shear values in the deep southwest Caribbean are running anywhere from 15 to 30 knots.
It should be noted that pretty much all of the computer forecast guidance is forecasting tropical development late this week and then a subsequent track to the north towards western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula next week. So, let's take a look at the models:
The GFS model starts to show development on Wednesday night and Thursday morning very near the coast of Costa Rica. The GFS model then forecasts this system to track north-northwestward along the central America coast late this week and track into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula this coming weekend. Looking ahead to next week, the GFS model forecasts this system to track northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico next Monday and then turn northeastward towards Florida next Tuesday and then across central and northern Florida next Wednesday.
The Canadian model forecasts that the low pressure system now over the eastern Pacific will cross central America late this week and emerge north of Honduras and east of Belize on Friday. The Canadian model then forecasts a northward track into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and then a turn to the northeast early next week. The Candian model is forecasting this system to cross south Florida next Tuesday.
The NOGAPS model is on board with developing this system and tracking it into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday, while the European model is showing really no development of this system and the Euro model completely suppresses it.
Okay, now let's take a step back and compare the forecast models with the current tropical weather analysis: Right now, the surface weather analysis and satellite imagery does show a low pressure system over the eastern Pacific and this looks to be the trigger for tropical development later this week. The latest tropical development forecast guidance does indicate that the western and southwestern Caribbean will become more favorable for development by Friday.
Here are my thoughts: With all of these signals both in the current trend and the forecast trend, I do think that we will have a tropical depression form in the southwestern Caribbean somewhere along the coast of Nicaragua or Costa Rica on Thursday or Friday. After that, the entire upper level flow should be such that a track to the north next weekend towards the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize seems very possible with strengthening into a tropical storm also possible.
So, keep checking back with these discussions as I will be monitoring things very closely this week and I will keep you all updated on the latest developments concerning this potential system.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Tuesday morning.

Still calling for something this week:

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 535 am EDT

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Things have become more uncertain this morning in terms of whether we will have tropical cyclone development in the far southwest Caribbean later this week. This morning's surface tropical weather analysis showed a weakening frontal system located over the northern Caribbean just northwest of Jamaica, a tropical wave tracking westward across the central Caribbean and an area of low pressure now located over the eastern Pacific just south of El Salvador tracking eastward. I am watching both the tropical wave over the central Caribbean and the area of low pressure just south of El Salvador to see if either of these two systems will trigger tropical cyclone development later this week in the southwestern Caribbean. Infared satellite imagery does show some convection over the southwestern Caribbean, however, there is currently a lack of deep organized convection in that area. It should be noted that wind shear values in the western Caribbean are very unfavorable for development, however, they should become more favorable by Thursday and Friday.
This morning's computer forecast guidance has become more wishy-washy on development in the southwest Caribbean later this week into this weekend. Now, obviously I always look at the current trends of the tropical weather situation and then blend in the models. As of right now, it appears that tropical cyclone formation is not expected for at least the next couple of days as wind shear values are too high and there is a lack of deep convection in the southwest Caribbean. Now, let's take a look at model land:
The GFS model shows a weak low pressure system hugging the coast of Central America through Friday and then tracking across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. As for next week, the GFS model forecasts that this storm system will remain over the Yucatan Peninsula through at least next Tuesday. The GFS model pretty much keeps the system just inland from the Caribbean and never really develops the low.
The Canadian model forecasts that the low pressure system now over the eastern Pacific will cross central America on Thursday and be located near Belize on Friday. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to cross the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and briefly emerge into the Bay of Campeche this weekend before diving south into Mexico on Monday.
The NOGAPS model forecasts that a broad area of low pressure will form in the western Caribbean over the next 72 hours and then track slowly into the northern Caribbean this weekend. The NOGAPS model then forecasts this system will cross central and western Cuba on Sunday into Monday before tracking northeast just east of the US East Coast on Tuesday.
Here are my thoughts on this: I still think we will have a tropical depression form somewhere in the southwest Caribbean late this week, probably around Thursday or Friday. I think the trigger will be the low pressure system now located to the south of El Salvador. As for a possible forecast track, that is even harder as that depends on the stength of high pressure to the north. If the high holds tough, then a track more towards inland Mexico (Canadian model track) would be more likely. If the high pressure system breaks down or forms a weakness (NOGAPS model track) then a track to the north and northeast would be more likely. As for possible strength, that all depends on how close the system remains to land, if the potential depression remains close to land, then little or no strengthening is likely. If the potential depression is able to get out into the Caribbean more, then strengthening into a tropical storm is possible.
So, keep checking back with these discussions as I will be monitoring things very closely this week and I will keep you all updated on the latest developments concerning this potential system.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Wednesday morning.

Well, chances are we are going to get our normal June 1st downpour this year. Time to wash off those roofs and clean the gutters and storm drains!