Well it looks like that by august gas will rise to 17bzd per gallon-this obviously will not help any of the tour dive companies and indeed the people who fly us here-if we do not watch out we will end up losing all our visitors to Playa del carmen et al

VivaAreobus flies Austin Cancun $119 RT, then bus down.

Is VivaAreobus flying down a bunch of fuel for the dive operators too????

A Blue Hole dive trip must be approaching $325usd.

How much of that $325 is for gas?

But the trip would still be worth it! Blue hole trip is about 120 miles round trip - assuming they don't have to divert to the "long way" which adds another 40 miles.

The blue hole trip is $250. us and includes the 40 us park fee and 10% sales tax. its been the same price for years and i don't hear any of the operators planning to change it.
It takes 2 to 2 and one half hours to get there and the same back.
i send the trip out about three times a week.

It's possible to maintain prices with full boats. But with boats half full or less it is unlikely to be tenable in the long term.

This is all moot.
There is no problem.
Prices for the Blue hole have not changed in years and
it hasn't gotten any longer or shorter of a trip.
Gas prices haven't done anything but go up since the invention of the combustion engine.
...and unless there is a plan to move Playa del carmen out of Mexico were not going to lose any business to them :-)

The ostrich speaks-someone who has never run(paid for) a commercial boat in his life-has no major investment in his business-Elbert gas is going to double in the next few months -this is going to make diving at least 50% more expensive-this is going to stop some people from coming here which means less divers which means smaller groups of divers on the boats which means % more to run the boats-look at rice/flour/beans all have doubled and it is getting worse-look at the occupancy of the hotels all going down with the expenses of running said places going up-electricity will have risen over 50% by september within a year-next year could and imo will be a problem

Peter,I've created a big successful dive shop with little to no capitol investment or liability exposure, some people think thats smart business. I feel very qualified after 20 years in San Pedros diving industry to give opinions on it.
Hows the Pizza business doing?

Elbert-you do not run your own boats,own your own dive shop etc.(ie you can pack up and leave at a moments notice)-you run a successful business by advertising,using other peoples machinery and property-therfore to you it does not matter if gas or anything else goes up as you will just continually add your % on and therefore your profit will remain the same-however the people who have put their money into capital investment will at some stage have to put their prices up which will determine where people go on vacation-you might have missed the news that the US and europe(the majority of our tourists come from these countries) are in a pretty deep recession and saving money or even not having a vacation comes into play for most middle class families and couples-you are not giving opinions on diving but on economics which you are patently not qualified.

The undercard for WWF in San Pedro; Pedro1 vs Elbert.

This is confusing , I thought you knew me, Hi I'm Elbert I'm an American born Belizean citizen and own my own home and dive shop on Ambergris Caye.My life and lively hood is extremely dependent on Tourism in Belize.
I'm not going anywhere but in the San Pedro Graveyard from here.
Gloom and Doom hysteria is what I object to on this thread.
Have some faith the gas prices always go up , sometimes big jumps and nothing really changes ,does it?
All I see in the Belize Tourism market is growth and development providing wealth and success for those involved.
Those that don't succeed whine and blame something other than themselves like The price of oil.

Elbert you do not own the shop you rent it(owning the shop would be called capital investment)-this is not doom and gloom -we should as a country worry about our no. 1 industry which is tourism and that is governed by how much money people have to spend and where they get the best bang for their buck,and we should work out ways to make sure that we give them this.
Look at all the trips you sell which will go up-ypou make a minimum of 20% by making a telephone call.
If you did not have hotels ie people who invest you would not have a business -now there is not one hotel on this island that is not worried about the recession,prices of flight tickets (800usd r/t to Houston),food prices etc.-you just need to look at the message board at people coming down via Cancun-you really have to want to come here to go this route-it is a bloody miserable trip and it takes two days from the US to AC-therefore 4 days travelling to come here and return- not a great advert.
You run a dive business with no boats-that is fairly unusual and you are totally dependant on others for your business to flourish.

Elbert - you're incredibly naive to think that you will not be affected in this economic struggle that this world faces due to rising energy prices. If you've found the golden ticket to a well-insulated business than I suggest you write a book and run for president/prime minister. Good luck to you sir.

This business of mine seems to disturb you for some reason.
I look at it as a great idea thats working well. Making everyone involved happy and successful. my logic of having the operators own their own boats is incentive to the operators. When he is owner of the boat and has an investment to watch out for, his judgment is different and I feel safer with my butt being on his boat.
but thats not the topic is it.
What do you propose we do about the oil prices going up and don't you think they went up in Mexico as well?

Elbert it is not your business that disturbs me but your posts which state that you really have no idea what is going on in the world.
In answer to your question gas is cheaper in Mexico than in the free zone -Mexico subsidise oil but you surely knew that as we live next door.The reason they do this is to protect amongst other industries their tourism.

Whats the solution? You stated in you original post 'if we don't watch out ' what are we watching for?

Your saying Belize should help with the jet fuel prices to get people here?

Elbert you are showing very little intelligence here-
1. Perhaps we should not charge landing fees
2. perhaps we should not tax jet fuel
3. perhaps we should look at the BTB on how they use their tax money.
4. perhaps we should teach tourism up to degree standard at schools
5. Work out better deals with the airlines to bring people here
6. there are hundreds of things we can do.

Come on Pedro, give him a little slack. There are a lot of things Belize could do if they were in the financial position of Mexico.

Whoops, I was about to comment on political issues and I cannot vote in Belize.

I was answering his uninformed questions

Sounds Idealistic to not charge these taxes and fees they pay for some services that are necessary.
Mexico has had the cheap air fare since the early 80's with no effect on Belize, We offer something entirely different and they offer the cheap air fare in desperation for tourist trade.
The tourist using the mex/air then bus to Belize are just cheap tourist taking advantage of Mexico's desperation.

Oh Elbert, don't make me have to agree with Pedro on your comments. The lower cost air fare to Mexico definatly effects Belize tourisim. I know persoally people who have gone right up the coast to Mexico instead of Belize because of price. And I think when it comes to "desperate for tourism", it better describes Belize than Mexico.

Elbert stick to your rental business

Jeez guys...Elbert you really, really, really need a wake up call and I'm suspecting that you'll get one very soon unfortunately. Kind of hard to charge 20% on zero. Calling a tourist cheap because the prices to travel via Mexico are about 30-40% cheaper is ridiculous. The fact of the matter is that the thing that has always appealed to the North American tourist is the relative ease of trip between Belize/Houston/Toronto etc. Once this is gone because price makes it inaccessible my friend, so does your business. "Cheap tourists" are what have been increasing the tourisim growth here.

And maybe these dive boat operators might figure out not paying commission would be a good way to offset higher costs. After all, if someone wants to take a dive trip, dive boat operators aren't that hard to locate and book direct with.

Now your getting nasty :-)

The fact of the matter is this, and hopefully it adds a little something to this discussion;

1) ultimately there is little we can do to off-set the immediate strain that these coming times will bring

2) times of stuggle and slow-down are a great point at which new ideas should be brought out in order to mitigate against future similar situations

3) no one is immune - ESPECIALLY if you are in the tourism business in any sort of degree

Now is the time to think of reasonable ways we can come together to make our businesses better in the future and to support each other when the tough times (oh and they will) hit.

BTW - the ironic thing about the two of you arguing is that you both are in the business of the things I love most in this world - diving and pizza!

Thank you for that Canam.

Just my two cents.... last Dec. came to SP and US Airways charged $667.00 per person from GSP (Greenville/Spartanburg) to Charlotte and then to Belize City. Now -- for this Dec. the exact same Flight numbers and times and the fare is............. $1,267.00 per person.

Can't handle that kind of increase so looked around and have to drive to Charlotte and go American Airlines to Miami ant then to Belize City -- fare only $850.00 now. That is a 27% increase in one year!!

So, Elbert, as a newcomer that loved SP the first time... can't say when I will be coming back after this Dec. -- so yes, the whole thing (gas prices, falling dollar, increasing cost of travel) will have a big effect on how many mid-income tourists come down to Belize. I hate it, but it is true...

Julian

The future doesn't look very bright for Belize does it? The tropical storm and the rain followed by it set our country back $100 million, at the same time tourism is crumbling, and prices are rising out of control. GOB, BTB, SPBA, BHA, BTIA, SPTGA, need to get together and undertake some coordinated action.

I hope you aren't just going to roll over and die until you see a real effect of this and not just internet hysteria.

I don't want to sound cruel and uncaring but the tropical storm effected the mainland it was business as usual here on the islands shortly after the storm , we are and always will be a different world than the mainland of Belize.
Folks don't really understand that when they see and here news like'Belize Devastated'.
I was surprised by that post on a sunny day before I went diving with a boat load of happy tourist.

Elbert the tropical storm did not just effect the mainland. It was worse a million times over but the news lumps Belize as a whole. Many people are now thinking twice about coming here and I had to reassure several clients that we were fine. Also when the news headlines the first Hurricane of an active hurricane season hits Belize then a lot of people think of going elsewhere.
Gas prices are effecting all of us! We cost a lot more then other vacation destinations.
It is not doom and gloom it is business owners trying to figure out what we can do to make things better. I fully agree with short our tourism boards and business associations need to find a plan of action to counter balance the slump.

fares come, fares go. book early if you can. i have seen fares from eugene oregon vary from 600 to 1300 over the last 15 years not including this gas insanity period. previous to that. so that fluctuation has always been there.

There are some solutions in the making; some airlines fly slower to conserve energy, some consider alternative jet fuel from algae and my personal favorite: Nuclear-Powered Planes!

But seriously, all the interest groups in Belize Tourism together should be able to come up with a master plan don't you think?

PS, I know the Nuclear Planes idea is an oldie.

I think that the BTB and the various groups can only do so much. In general Belize has a lot of work to do with regards to nurturing it's tourism industry and they should focus on what they CAN control (image, advertising etc). All the meetings in the world won't be able to off-set any major decline seen due to this current economic situation. I like the idea of the nuclear planes short, lol.

I had some guests booked to arrive last weekend and dive for the week. I gather they didn't even turn up at the hotel they'd booked. I don't know yet, but remembering previous conversations with them I suspect they went somewhere other than Belize.

I'm afraid I also believe that Belize has a mountain to climb. Air fares to come here are sky rocketing, just at the same time that most people are tightening their belts because of recession at home, and people are now looking for the best bang for their buck. Belize doesn't provide it.

This may be a temporary insane period for oil prices, but many industry experts don't think so. The general concensus seems to be that the day of cheap air fares affordable by anybody are over. I hope they're wrong but I fear they're not.

I think fuel is going to double in the next two years - better be prepared! See quote from Alexei Miller: "Gazprom chief forecasts oil price will reach $250"
(As usual the source and unfortunately no joke this time...)

Oil prices have about reached their peak (for this go-round). The Saudis are convening a summit on oil. Oil does not want alternative sources of energy, and the current increases are beginning to create investment in other sources. Oil will not allow this to happen. They will stablize the price.

Wanna make a friendly bet?

Whether in the next two years I don't know, but in the foreseeable future I'm sure you're right. I think the price will continue going up and will not come back down again. It's going to change all our lives drastically.

oil should go up. we gotta get used to it. its ludicrous its stayed so cheap so long. we are going to have to adapt. and we will. just had my first 100 dollar fillup and i was a happy boy. we are way overdue for this.

i realize mine is a minority view.

We are long overdue, but that's not really the point. Our economies are based upon cheap oil, and will be for a long time. Because "big oil" has kept other technologies from coming to fruition in the market place we are way behind in alternative forms. These will be extremely tough years until we can figure out how to run the world via other means across the board (developing nations included).

Not to throw salt on any wounds but in the UK gas is outrageous as well but they have adapted by taking trains, and using public transportation. It is going to be very painful here in the States for a while as we adapt but I agree with Marty it had to go up.
As far as trips to Belize, you just have to play the “check the fare game” all the time, a trip to San Pedro this November is running about 700.00 (not the highest I have ever paid) but I want to wait till Continental does their canceling of flights before I book. I remember flying to BZE via New Orleans for about 500.00 and the flight to New Orleans from Memphis was the most expensive part of the leg and that was in the late 80’s

Oh and Elbert, I got your back Memphrica will be on the island in just 22 more sleeps!

Going back to the original point of the thread, one of them, it IS going to have a major effect here in San Pedro. Firstly on the number of visitors, put off by the high air fares and less available cash because everything back home has gone up as well, and secondly because all our costs here will go up. Obviously fuel for boats is directly and greatly affected, but all supplies are brought here by boat and will go up as well.

Without intelligent government action, and even perhaps with it, I fear enormous consequences. Not necessarily catastrophic.

Interesting times.

Yes, yes, yes but where does the power come from to run the trains and the buses and the subways and the ferries and the trolleys and the rick-shawawallas? Oil will always go up. This is good for the long-run as it forces us into a different way of doing things. But to think that train tickets and bus tokens will be the answer....

At any rate, let's all come up with solutions that the BTB can possibly implement in order to help with the rising costs of Belize-related tourism (however fluctuating).

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25010939

Read the second page regarding tax income

"It all adds up to a conundrum for government officials — high fuel prices send passengers to mass transit but drive down tax revenue and strain fuel budgets."