This is from one of my favorite weather forecasters: Ray Lightbown of Crowne Weather Services. http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html
Pass the word along to folks on the Texas coast.
I wanted to point out a couple of things to consider regarding the potential of fairly rapid intensification starting around Monday: The model runs of the GFS, HWRF, GFDL, and Canadian are somewhat concerning as they are not only portraying something rather extreme, but that it will get there pretty rapidly. The reason why I am concerned is that it is the weekend and there are less individuals paying attention to the news and weather and any developments of this system. With this system just a tropical wave, most people are not paying attention to its progress and probably won't until bedtime Sunday night or during the Monday morning commute. So, please spread the word that there is a tropical system in the central Caribbean that could undergo rapid intensification starting Monday and may come ashore along the Texas coast on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
I don't mean to be fear monger, but I do want to point out the potential long before any advisories, watches or warnings go up. Please continue to monitor the latest information regarding this system. I will be closely monitoring this system and will keep you all updated. Again, please spread the word to your coastal Texas friends and family that there is a tropical system in the central Caribbean that could undergo rapid intensification starting Monday and may come ashore along the Texas coast on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Finally, I would like to once again thank Chuck Nusbaum and the crew at Old City Web Services for hosting Crown Weather Services' website this hurricane season. Chuck and his crew at Old City Web Services are gracious and generous enough to host our website and keep us going. So, please thank them when you get a chance for hosting our site and keeping us going. Without them, we wouldn't be here!! So, thank you Chuck and everyone else at Old City Web Services!!
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 8 am EDT Sunday morning.
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.