bywarren, have you been following oil prices? They will increase again when all the talk about alternative sources fades. Seen this show too many times.

ubbit. Im not bywarren but I do know a little about the commodity markets. Oil is down for the following reasons; (1) consumption is down (2) The Dollar is up against the Euro, Pound and Yen.

Gold and silver are down to a two month low, because the $ is up.

The question is, how far are the Central Banks going to go in manipulating the prices of commodities. Our Fed is just as involved as the other Central Banks.

My monthly royalty checks keep me appraised of the price of oil. Thanks for asking.

Oil will keep dropping -- there will be periodic ups and downs, but it'll be back under $100 very soon.

GO SHORT, OTTER, GO SHORT !

And how do you think it will do today after Russia took over Georgia and is stopping the shipment of oil from that region?

Danny, I don't know who your question is directed to, but oil is up $1.00 to $115 this morning which should also affect the gold prices. As a matter of fact, I just looked at the London opening and it is up $4.00 to$863. The COMEX also has followed at $862. This should be an interesting day.

Better check your oil prices again!!

I get a running quote, i know what they are. Thanks

The dollar is up and oil is down for one reason only and that is because the US has been intervening in the currency markets. The US has been selling Euros and buying dollars using the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). IMHO this is a desperation move to try and stem the bleeding dollar. Fundamentally it changes nothing, but so far it is having the desired effect.

http://www.treas.gov/press/international-reserve-position.html

All credit for the below graph made from the above Treasury Department data goes to Bart13 over at www.siliconinvester.com That big drop in the blue line is Euros being spent to buy dollars.

The ECB as well as the BOE are helping to prop up the dollar.

I'm really learning here. Thanks.

I would disagree that it findamentally changes nothing. If the Fed's action results in a perception that the dollar has bottomed-out and changing course, the subsequent result is very real.

Ernie is right! (did I say that?) With the EU decisioning on core interest rates and declining crude costs -- we've continued to see a strengthening dollar since the Fed's move.

Yeah, you said that Otter ! I printed it out and stuck it on the fridge.

Technically that would be a technical move in the dollar not a fundamental one. Yes an up move is an up move and in the end the money made or lost is all that counts, but when I think of dollar fundamentals I am thinking about the health of the balance sheet of the US (income versus outgo and the associated debt) and interest rates versus inflation.

Short term technicals (basically the human behavioral factor) bounce things around good. Long term fundamentals always win.

With careful timing and some coordination, manipulation can do a good job of influencing the technicals and flipping the switch that convinces people that now is a good time to buy, but it does not change the fundamentals and eventually the fundamentals will push back. IMHO

Well put, Chris.

I think you may be on the wrong message board Chris?

You seem both reasonable an intelligent.

Yeah! Who let him in??

Okay, help me to understand an example of a "fundamental" move in the dollar. Serious question.

In recent weeks ...

Oil is down 20%
Corn is down 33%
Rice is down 25-35%
Copper is down 15%
Gold is down near 20%
Platinum is down 30%

Has the commodities bubble burst? Well, seems like more than a minor technical correction, but what do I know.

--Lan Sluder

This may not be THE answer but its one. Historically commodities (gold) bottoms out for the year in August and again in October. This creates buying opportunities. It also ticks up after all the shorts cut and run. OK, now beat me up.

A fundamental move would be one reacting to good housing numbers, employment figures, balance of trade gap closing or some sort of predictable or measurable move of the US economy in a good direction, as opposed to an engineered move such as a central bank liquidation or purchase...

Or I could be full of sh*t, and just trying to sound clever to get chicks

Yeah, Pug, chicks go crazy over economists!!! Greenspan had hotties all over him!!

It must work, Andrea Mitchell is 20 years younger than Alan!! And he dated "Baba Wawa" back in the day!!

Balance of payments is one of the fundamentals that moves a country's currency. Paying their balances is what moves chicks in your direction.

lol - I love it! Don't let Mrs. Pug know you're flirting -- hehehe.

Who decides when a dollar movement is due to "predictable or measurable move of the US economy in a good direction?"

From what I can recall, there are basically two schools of thought when it comes to making investment and/or trading decisions:
The technical school basically says that the market moves in trends and these trends, essentially historical performance, are the only true indicator of future performance. The true technical analyst looks solely at actual commodity price, assuming that actual price has already taken into account things like profit/loss, company strength, economic and political factors, etc. before the investor even knows those factors exist. The goal is to analyze marketplace changes in the trends over time, and then act accordingly.
In contrast, fundamental analysis ascribes to all market commodities an intrinsic, or true, value which results from the all of the information one would generally find in a prospectus: profit/loss, corporate governing bodies, balance sheets, forecasted returns, etc. These are assessed and intrinsic value is estimated. The goal then is to compare the estimate to current market price and base decisions to buy/sell on the differences.
It's been quite a while since college economics, thus my need for a professional; plus criteria that are based on more than return rates. Is it even worthwhile to ask if anyone is involved at all in what is commonly termed "socially responsible investing?"

It's all manipulated and therefore not proper and fair for the little man. The Fed and the hedge funds are in it together. Who really are hedge fund managers and investors? How many hedge funds are there? Don't these people get some kind of tax break? How does the average joe blow make 5 maybe 10 million a year. What do they really do but make money. Most of them probably never made anything but money. The average joe blow worker never made any real money but real things for people to use and live in. I sorry if this sounds like sour grapes so I'll shut up. I got to go chase the dear out of the garden.

LA "Is it even worthwhile to ask if anyone is involved at all in what is commonly termed "socially responsible investing?"

Yes, I'm for that and I like to spread around my risk. One night I'll invest in BC's, the next at the Road Kill, ect.