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#294371 08/23/08 10:30 AM
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I can't seem to post the weather map from Weatherunderground, but all should take notice of this disturbance. It has potential for making trouble in our neighborhood. Do not confuse it with the earlier 94L that came and went in july.

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Joined: Oct 1999
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its in the ballpark for sure


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From Crown Weather - posted this morning at 8 EDT.

Invest 94-L and Invest 95-L: I continue to monitor two tropical disturbances over the central and eastern Atlantic. The first disturbance, dubbed Invest 94-L is located a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the Windward and Leeward Islands today into tonight. The second disturbance, dubbed Invest 95-L is located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Invest 95-L is producing disorganized shower activity and significant development is not expected with 95-L over the next couple of days, but seems more likely with Invest 94-L.
Currently, wind shear analysis is showing 10 to 20 knots of shear over both 94-L and 95-L. There appears to be better vorticity or spin with Invest 94-L and I am giving this Invest a better chance at development than 95-L. The environmental conditions are forecast to become quite favorable for development next week and I do think Invest 94-L will become a tropical depression by Monday or Tuesday, if not before then. Therefore, for the rest of this discussion, I am going to discuss 94-L as it is the greater threat, in my opinion.
The track model guidance forecast 94-L to track just south of Barbados and through the Windward Islands tonight. This track will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Barbados, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands today through tonight. After that, the track model guidance forecasts 94-L to track west-northwest through the eastern and central Caribbean and threaten Hispaniola and Jamaica as a hurricane by Wednesday and Thursday. As for the global models, the Canadian model forecasts that both 94 and 95-L will develop over the next few days and forecasts 94-L to impact Hispaniola around the middle part of next week while 95-L is forecast to stay well north of all of the Caribbean Islands. The Canadian model ultimately forecasts 94-L to track into the Gulf of Mexico while 95-L stays east of the US East Coast. The GFS model does not forecast any type of development. The NOGAPS and UKMET models also forecast development from 94-L and in fact the UKMET model forecasts significantly lowering pressures over the entire Caribbean in 5 to 6 days signaling something looks to really pop down there. Lastly, the European model forecasts 94-L to develop next week and forecasts it to be located somewhere in the vicinity of the southeastern Bahamas on Friday.
So, based on all of this, I still think Invest 94-L will be the one to develop and looking at the environment near and ahead of this disturbance, I do not expect tropical cyclone development from 94-L for the day or two, however, as conditions become more favorable next week, I suspect that it will become a tropical depression by Monday or Tuesday.
This system will need to be watched very closely in the Caribbean and it does pose a threat to Hispaniola, Cuba and Jamaica around the middle of next week. Further down the road, based on the overall pattern next week into the following week, this system may get very close to and possibly impact the US Coastline. I will be monitoring this situation very closely and keep you all updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 10 am EDT Sunday morning.

Joined: Aug 2007
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Thanks Diane and Marty. Bob is on the island for a week, hopefully he's brought good luck and the storm will go in another direction.

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Let's hope for rapid forward speed, lots of early interaction with land and a big fizzle.

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Satellite and surface observations indicate that the low pressure
area located over the central Caribbean about 250 miles south of
Santo Domingo continues to show signs of organization. Upper-level
winds are favorable for additional development...and the system
could become a tropical depression at any time today or tonight.
Watches and/or warnings may be required for portions of Hispaniola
later today. Interests in Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of the low as it
moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

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Jeff Masters:
The models have had a tough time properly handling 94L, due to the fact they have been getting this system entangled with the other disturbance (95L) a few hundred miles to the northeast of Puerto Rico. The latest (2 am EDT Monday) GFDL forecast appears believable--and presents a strong case of deja vu. It's an almost exact repeat of Fay's track. The GFDL predicts 94L will continue to move northwest and hit the Haiti/Dominican Republic region on Tuesday, then get turned to the west by a strengthening ridge of high pressure. The storm will cross over to eastern Cuba on Wednesday, then travel along the length of Cuba through Friday night. On Saturday, the GFDL has 94L popping off the coast of Cuba at the same spot Fay did, then intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane that moves over Key West towards a landfall in Southwest Florida. While it is unlikely that the exact details of this deja vu forecast will come true, it does give one a general idea of the land areas 94L is likely to affect.

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No wonder, models are handling this!

Joined: Jan 2003
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Now TS Gustav

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