From Crown Weather - posted this morning at 8 EDT.
Invest 94-L and Invest 95-L: I continue to monitor two tropical disturbances over the central and eastern Atlantic. The first disturbance, dubbed Invest 94-L is located a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the Windward and Leeward Islands today into tonight. The second disturbance, dubbed Invest 95-L is located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Invest 95-L is producing disorganized shower activity and significant development is not expected with 95-L over the next couple of days, but seems more likely with Invest 94-L.
Currently, wind shear analysis is showing 10 to 20 knots of shear over both 94-L and 95-L. There appears to be better vorticity or spin with Invest 94-L and I am giving this Invest a better chance at development than 95-L. The environmental conditions are forecast to become quite favorable for development next week and I do think Invest 94-L will become a tropical depression by Monday or Tuesday, if not before then. Therefore, for the rest of this discussion, I am going to discuss 94-L as it is the greater threat, in my opinion.
The track model guidance forecast 94-L to track just south of Barbados and through the Windward Islands tonight. This track will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Barbados, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands today through tonight. After that, the track model guidance forecasts 94-L to track west-northwest through the eastern and central Caribbean and threaten Hispaniola and Jamaica as a hurricane by Wednesday and Thursday. As for the global models, the Canadian model forecasts that both 94 and 95-L will develop over the next few days and forecasts 94-L to impact Hispaniola around the middle part of next week while 95-L is forecast to stay well north of all of the Caribbean Islands. The Canadian model ultimately forecasts 94-L to track into the Gulf of Mexico while 95-L stays east of the US East Coast. The GFS model does not forecast any type of development. The NOGAPS and UKMET models also forecast development from 94-L and in fact the UKMET model forecasts significantly lowering pressures over the entire Caribbean in 5 to 6 days signaling something looks to really pop down there. Lastly, the European model forecasts 94-L to develop next week and forecasts it to be located somewhere in the vicinity of the southeastern Bahamas on Friday.
So, based on all of this, I still think Invest 94-L will be the one to develop and looking at the environment near and ahead of this disturbance, I do not expect tropical cyclone development from 94-L for the day or two, however, as conditions become more favorable next week, I suspect that it will become a tropical depression by Monday or Tuesday.
This system will need to be watched very closely in the Caribbean and it does pose a threat to Hispaniola, Cuba and Jamaica around the middle of next week. Further down the road, based on the overall pattern next week into the following week, this system may get very close to and possibly impact the US Coastline. I will be monitoring this situation very closely and keep you all updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 10 am EDT Sunday morning.