I can't seem to post the weather map from Weatherunderground, but all should take notice of this disturbance. It has potential for making trouble in our neighborhood. Do not confuse it with the earlier 94L that came and went in july.

its in the ballpark for sure

From Crown Weather - posted this morning at 8 EDT.

Invest 94-L and Invest 95-L: I continue to monitor two tropical disturbances over the central and eastern Atlantic. The first disturbance, dubbed Invest 94-L is located a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the Windward and Leeward Islands today into tonight. The second disturbance, dubbed Invest 95-L is located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Invest 95-L is producing disorganized shower activity and significant development is not expected with 95-L over the next couple of days, but seems more likely with Invest 94-L.
Currently, wind shear analysis is showing 10 to 20 knots of shear over both 94-L and 95-L. There appears to be better vorticity or spin with Invest 94-L and I am giving this Invest a better chance at development than 95-L. The environmental conditions are forecast to become quite favorable for development next week and I do think Invest 94-L will become a tropical depression by Monday or Tuesday, if not before then. Therefore, for the rest of this discussion, I am going to discuss 94-L as it is the greater threat, in my opinion.
The track model guidance forecast 94-L to track just south of Barbados and through the Windward Islands tonight. This track will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Barbados, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands today through tonight. After that, the track model guidance forecasts 94-L to track west-northwest through the eastern and central Caribbean and threaten Hispaniola and Jamaica as a hurricane by Wednesday and Thursday. As for the global models, the Canadian model forecasts that both 94 and 95-L will develop over the next few days and forecasts 94-L to impact Hispaniola around the middle part of next week while 95-L is forecast to stay well north of all of the Caribbean Islands. The Canadian model ultimately forecasts 94-L to track into the Gulf of Mexico while 95-L stays east of the US East Coast. The GFS model does not forecast any type of development. The NOGAPS and UKMET models also forecast development from 94-L and in fact the UKMET model forecasts significantly lowering pressures over the entire Caribbean in 5 to 6 days signaling something looks to really pop down there. Lastly, the European model forecasts 94-L to develop next week and forecasts it to be located somewhere in the vicinity of the southeastern Bahamas on Friday.
So, based on all of this, I still think Invest 94-L will be the one to develop and looking at the environment near and ahead of this disturbance, I do not expect tropical cyclone development from 94-L for the day or two, however, as conditions become more favorable next week, I suspect that it will become a tropical depression by Monday or Tuesday.
This system will need to be watched very closely in the Caribbean and it does pose a threat to Hispaniola, Cuba and Jamaica around the middle of next week. Further down the road, based on the overall pattern next week into the following week, this system may get very close to and possibly impact the US Coastline. I will be monitoring this situation very closely and keep you all updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 10 am EDT Sunday morning.

Thanks Diane and Marty. Bob is on the island for a week, hopefully he's brought good luck and the storm will go in another direction.

Let's hope for rapid forward speed, lots of early interaction with land and a big fizzle.

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the low pressure
area located over the central Caribbean about 250 miles south of
Santo Domingo continues to show signs of organization. Upper-level
winds are favorable for additional development...and the system
could become a tropical depression at any time today or tonight.
Watches and/or warnings may be required for portions of Hispaniola
later today. Interests in Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of the low as it
moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Jeff Masters:
The models have had a tough time properly handling 94L, due to the fact they have been getting this system entangled with the other disturbance (95L) a few hundred miles to the northeast of Puerto Rico. The latest (2 am EDT Monday) GFDL forecast appears believable--and presents a strong case of deja vu. It's an almost exact repeat of Fay's track. The GFDL predicts 94L will continue to move northwest and hit the Haiti/Dominican Republic region on Tuesday, then get turned to the west by a strengthening ridge of high pressure. The storm will cross over to eastern Cuba on Wednesday, then travel along the length of Cuba through Friday night. On Saturday, the GFDL has 94L popping off the coast of Cuba at the same spot Fay did, then intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane that moves over Key West towards a landfall in Southwest Florida. While it is unlikely that the exact details of this deja vu forecast will come true, it does give one a general idea of the land areas 94L is likely to affect.

No wonder, models are handling this!

Now TS Gustav

I am so confused. I don't understand all of the terminology! If something major is happening, will you send a shout out and "dumb it down" for me? :)Otherwise you may just see me walking around in a hurricane!

Okay, the disturbance was first named Invest 94 (this is a name given to an area that has the potential to develop into a tropical storm.) It was then upgraded to a tropical depression. Now the tropical depression has been upgraded to a tropic storm - this means that it has maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or more and has a closed circulation (rotates.)

At the moment the computer models best guess is that the Tropical Storm Gustav will be heading in the vicinity of the Dominican Republic/Haiti. Then they guess it will cross over Cuba and then curve back a little and head to the Bahamas.

These forecast tracks can be very accurate at times, and at other times be completely wrong.

JUST ADDED: From all of the blogs, chat boards etc I am gathering that the National Hurricane Center is NOT comfortable that the computer models are even close to accurate at the moment. There was another storm feature that has been interfering with the forecasting. So be sure and check the weather channel #28 at 10 minutes to each hour and check the wunderground tropical weather page and the crown weather tropical weather page to get a broad idea of what the new forecast models will be predicting over the days to come. Some of the models are predicting landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula - so be prepared.

If you are living in Belize my advice to you would be to ensure that you have a hurricane plan and supplies. In most cases you are expected to evacuate any low lying areas and the cayes if a Tropical Storm (or hurricane) is threatening our area. You should always try and have access to some evacuation funds.

If a storm threatens your area you will hear official broadcasts on the radio and television. Your village or town will have the flag system. The flag on Ambergris Caye is at the town hall.

You must not listen to rumours on the street - only listen to the public advisories.

If you don't have a plan - make it now. If you don't have the right supplies (including medicines and pet foods) get them together now. If you don't have evacuation funds, start saving - now.

Whether or not you evacuate you are typically expected to be fairly self sufficient. You should have your own supply of food, clothes, water, toiletries, medicines, blankets etc.

Hurricane shelters will not accept pets.

Being prepared will mean that you will be a lot less stressed if a storm does threaten or hit.

As always, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Thanks Amanda! We are on Ambergris Caye as well. Appreciate all the info!

If a storm is pending many of the regular boarders will provide the blow by blow (yes pun intended) information and advice.

If the island boarders go quiet it means no power, no internet etc. This is usually a short interruption.

Things can get stressful and scary very quickly. Even if you are prepared you might find that others may need assistance too.

Be safe.

I am in the Florida Panhandle .. just sent Fay packing after 21 incehes of rain, flooding and down trees. Hope this one peters out by it does not sound like it will ....

As of 2pm this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression 7 to Tropical Storm Gustav, based on data received from Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Gustav is now a 60 mph storm, located about 225 miles SSE of Port-Au-Prince, Haiti. Gustav is moving to the NW at 14 mph. Hurricane warnings and watches are in place for western Haiti.

Forecast track has TS Gustav strengthening to a hurricane tomorrow morning and crossing the SW portion of Haiti mid-day Tuesday. Longer term, Gustav will cross the SE portion of Cuba on Wednesday morning and weaken to a Tropical Storm. Through Saturday, Gustav is predicted to hug the northern coast of Cuba.

Computer models are somewhat divergent, but most take Gustav across Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, some along the northern coast near the Florida Straits, others to the western gulf toward the Yucatan Peninsula. We should have a clearer picture on this in the next day.

Here's the latest graphic: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/181113.shtml?5day#contents

Uh-Oh...The models are shifting westward.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html

For those that are unfamiliar with the term "merge" it means putting all of the pieces of the same subject together into the same thread. This is to assist viewers by not requiring that they read 3 posted threads in order to read about one singular subject.

Jeez Jesse - trying to merge here!!

Uh-oh. Moving more westward.Getting bigger!

As a tourist showing up next week I am hoping someone can explain the flag system for me. Also, as a tourist what should I know in case of evacuation? I'm sorry if these questions have been answered before, but just a little bit of a worrier.

Now I'm worried , I've never seen a flag to indicate anything about a hurricane, don't even know where to look and I've been here 22 years and rode through all the hurricanes the sea can throw out.
I check the ambergriscay.com weather report.
now there is a flag for you.

Usually the flag would be raised at the Town Council, Police Station, Fire Station.

Lets keep our fingers and toes crossed and hope for the best.

The latest track models suggest it crossing the western tip of Cuba, looks like A/C will dodge the bullet, at least for now.

You can never say we have dodged the bullet until the storm is out of the Caribbean Basin and back into the atlantic or in the gulf.

As a tourist you will be the first to be given an evacuation order. I believe Tourists have priority of outgoing planes. If there is no time to evacuate your hotel will place you in the safest location they can on the island.

The flag system is described on the NEMO - National Emergency Management Organization website. http://www.nemo.org.bz/

My Dear Amanda, I issued a C.Y.A. with "at least for now"

Nug_luvr - ordinarily being a worrier is not such a good thing. BUT in this case it is totally warranted, and wise.
About the flags ........they are an old custom that just tells us how far away the storm is (used before phones radio and internet)- if you want to know details, check out the Belize NEMO site.
The most important thing to know is that when there is a hurricane in the region, even if you are fortunate enough to be in a place with perfect weather, you will probably experience effects. Travel in the region will be disrupted, flow of goods will be disrupted and people will be distracted.
On top of that, please note that most resorts and major restaurants close in September as a matter of course.
Airlines will not cancel flights until the last minute, so do not use their agents for advice on whether to come.
As for arriving on Monday - if you check <stormcarib.com> you can choose the "closest point of approach" tool. According to the predictions made a few hours ago, the closest point of approach to Ambergris Caye will be 2 am Sunday. If the storm slows down - and it is predicted to do so - then the closest point may be a bit later, the storm may be closer and it will for sure be stronger than now predicted. If I were planning a trip on Monday I'd be packed and ready to go (to Belize), but glued to the computer and tv screen on Sunday. Make your decision on Sunday night. If at 5pm Sunday the storm is north of AC and more than 200 miles away, then you are probably good to go.
Please do not arrive in a climate of uncertainty - you will have a lousy time and will add to the pressures we already face.

We want tp host you on a wonderful vacation in this country - and if we're busy preparing for a disaster we cannot provide you with anything close to that experience. So............ had you asked should you come in on Thursday I'd have said no. Monday is another story - you may be able to do it just fine - then again, check your flight route because you may be routed through a US city that is also in the path of gustav.

I have what seems like total recall (PTSS?) of Mitch - and how it was going to Cuba --- but ended up in Honduras and even so, managed to destroy all the piers on AC. Also of note was Keith who was just a little bitty TS at supper time, but landed on us at 7 am as a cat 4. Forecasts are just not able to give us the pinpoint accuracy we wish for. The only certainty is that anything can happen.
The upper level high is our boogey-manright now - it will determine how much the storm slows and how far south the track dips. Unfortunately this high is building and each prediction puts the storm further west and south.
My personal bets are for AC to be ok, but with some big water.
That being said, better safe than sorry - don't get complacent about this one.
Dito Everything Amanda said.


My fears are for New Orleans. American Red Cross has already anounced they are mobilied to respind to a hit on Houston or New Orleans.

Thank you for the advice. We are actually not arriving until the end of next week. Never know what can happen. Hubby is the proverbial cool cucumber so I know things will be just fine. Can't wait to get back to SP.

The big "cone of uncertainty" has just dropped again at the 2pm EDT advisory - now included Chetumal.

Doesn't mean anything... yet.

But be sure to check on this storm at least once a day till it enters the gulf of Mexico.

From Tuesday evening, Channel 5 broadcast:

Met office urges vigilance over Gustav
We are smack in the middle of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and so it’s no surprise that tonight the Met Office is telling Belizeans to keep an eye out for Gustav, a storm churning its way in the Caribbean Sea. The category one hurricane made landfall on the southwest peninsula of Haiti this afternoon and while some weakening is expected as it moves over that country, it is forecasted that Gustav will re-intensify and may take up a more westerly instead of northwesterly track. We spoke to Acting Chief Meteorologist Ramon Frutos this afternoon and he told us they are monitoring the situation.

Ramon Frutos, Acting Chief Meteorologist
“Projections have Gustav moving towards the Northwest and the force speed is expected to decrease. However, some of the models have Gustav moving more towards the west than towards the northwest and this is a concern to Belize. For example, the European models have Gustav moving towards the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday somewhere around the central part of the Yucatan Peninsula and it is something we must be concerned about. My message to Belizeans tonight is to continue to remain vigilant. Gustav is still some distance away from our coast. It is possible along the projected path that we have right now; the latest, Gustav will just very extreme northeastern part of our preliminary phase if it continues along that path. Conditions in the northwestern Caribbean, especially around Cuba and that there area around Cayman are very conducive to further strengthening of Gustav before it enters into the Gulf of Mexico. So it is possible that we could have a major hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean before or just at the beginning of the weekend. We will continue to monitor Gustav during tonight and tomorrow and tomorrow in the afternoon we will have a better idea of where Gustav will be headed.”

For reference on interpreting the geographical references of most weather prdictions - when "they" refer to Yucatan, that tends to include Ambergris Caye.

Hello, we are scheduled to fly in this Friday from Miami. Any updates on this storm and the odds of us not being able to get there? I'm getting a little nervous!

i'm thinkin you are fine. the navy guys are the BEST prognosticators
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/07L.GUSTAV/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html



big version of this map here:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2008/al072008.08082712.gif

Jeff Masters this AM
The track forecast for Gustav
The latest 6Z (2 am EDT) model runs are in good agreement that Gustav will turn west and pass through the narrow channel between Cuba and Jamaica after leaving Haiti. Gustav is small enough that the Kingston, Jamaica airport on the south side of the island may be able to stay open Thursday as the storm passes to the north. However, the Montego Bay airport on the north side of the island is likely to close. Heavy rain will be the primary threat to Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

The trough of low pressure that was steering Gustav northwest has moved off to the east, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. This ridge of high pressure will force Gustav west. There is now better agreement in the longer term track of Gustav. All of the models foresee a turn to the north over western Cuba, followed by a landfall on the central U.S. Gulf Coast Sunday or Monday. The final landfall location of Gustav depends on the strength and speed of a trough of low pressure forecast to move across the Midwest U.S. late this week. While it currently appears that Louisiana is the most likely target, keep in mind that if you're in the cone of uncertainty, you're not safe. Final landfall of Gustav could occur anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. The latest GFDL model predicts landfall near New Orleans on Sunday night as a Category 3 hurricane. The HWRF model picks Mississippi on Monday morning, as a Category 3 hurricane. The NOGAPS prefers the Florida Panhandle on Sunday night, and the ECMWF targets central Louisiana on Monday morning.

here is the flag system explained and a Belize Hurricane tracking map
http://ambergriscaye.com/art/HurricaneTrackingMapBelizeCUT.jpg

we just got done recovering from Fay a few days ago, and now we have Gustav, as well as a possible tropical storm Hanna, which seems to pose more of a threat to my location i.e. Florida east coast...

yep, the storm season is gearing into full swing. prepare and be safe.

I flew from Orlando to Belize during Tropical Storm Fay. The planes go around or up and over the storms (far as I can tell.) So unless a storm is imminently threatening us, it won't cause a problem. Of course if there is a hurricane threatening your departure city that could cause delays and cancellations.

At this time Belize should not be a problem to travel to tomorrow - unless you are coming in via Cuba or Jamaica.

I wish you guys would stop stretching my screen.

this better ernie? no stretch thisaway...

the track has dropped south a tad but still swings north


big version of this map here

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2008/al072008.08082812.gif

MUCH BETTER MARTY ! now i can read it without loosing my place.