Portofino Resort- Now with a new BEACH BAR!!
Topic Options
#2961 - 10/02/00 03:40 AM Sun 8pm Official Reports
Marty Offline
<img align=left width=113 height=103 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/loop9pmsun1.gif"><img align=right width=271 height=199 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/clouds9psun.jpg">HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000

...KEITH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...CONTINUES TO POUND BELIZE...AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND ABOUT 40 MILES
...60 KM NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
<br clear=all>
<img align=right width=270 height=247 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/strike9psun.gif">
KEITH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 48 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.30 INCHES.

THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...EASTERN MEXICO...BELIZE AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WITH THE SLOW
MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
THE PATH OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 2O INCHES.
<br clear=all>
<img align=right width=200 height=191 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/geos9sm.jpg">
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...HAVE LIKELY BEEN OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...17.9 N... 87.9 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT...MONDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

<br clear=all>
<img align=right width=254 height=195 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9psun.gif">
HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000

THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM SIX HOURS
AGO AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC AS SHOWN IN THE 18Z AVIATION 500 MB FIELDS. THE GFDL
AND AVIATION MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE A LITTLE EASTWARD BEFORE
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND THE AVIATION MODEL KEEPS
THE CENTER OVER WATER AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOVING THE CENTER SLOWLY ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 72
HOURS.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS 958 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...UP 16 MB
IN 18 HOURS. THERE IS NO LONGER AN EYE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
BUT THE RECON MISSION REPORTED A CLOSED CIRCULAR EYEWALL AS RECENTLY
AS 23Z ALONG WITH 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 133 KNOTS A
FEW MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A DROPSONDE MEASURED WINDS
OF 95 KNOTS NEAR THE SURFACE. EARLIER AT 21Z...A HAM RADIO REPORT
OF 125+ MPH WAS RECEIVED FROM SAN PEDRO ON AMBERGRIS CAY BELIZE.
THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 100 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY AND SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AS MUCH OR ALL OF THE
CIRCULATION STAYS OVER LAND. KEITH IS FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE
STRENGTH AT 72 HOURS AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
 INITIAL     02/0300Z 17.9N  87.9W   100 KTS
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N  87.9W    80 KTS
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N  88.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.3N  88.6W    50 KTS...INLAND
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 22.0N  89.5W    45 KTS
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 26.0N  92.0W    75 KTS
  
</font>

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]

Top
#2962 - 10/02/00 03:57 AM Re: Sun 8pm Official Reports
Marty Offline
updated

Top
#2963 - 10/02/00 04:06 AM Re: Sun 8pm Official Reports
Marty Offline
Its so weird how they say its at 17.9 and 87.9, exactly at san pedro, yet the pics show it off to the west a little...

where's our meteorological folks for that one?

Top
#2964 - 10/02/00 04:49 AM Re: Sun 8pm Official Reports
Marty Offline
I asked Shannon, a meterologist, why the center is still defined as over the island, when it looks on the maps that its further west...
here's what she said:
====
Since the eye is no longer defined, they are guestimating the position of
the hurricane's center based on the lowest pressure their planes found and
the satellite images:

THERE IS NO LONGER AN EYE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE RECON
MISSION REPORTED A CLOSED CIRCULAR EYEWALL AS RECENTLY AS 23Z [23Z = 1700
Belize time] ALONG WITH 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL [850mb = about 1.5 kilometers
here] WINDS AS HIGH AS 133 KNOTS A FEW MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
A DROPSONDE MEASURED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS NEAR THE SURFACE.

Note that at the surface the measured speed was "only" 95 knots - still
quite strong, to be sure, but not like the 153 that someone posted on the
board earlier. And that was at 5pm local time. The wind speed at the
surface is nearly always much lower than that at flight level. It does
look to me like the center of circulation is still pretty close to the
island, although most of the clouds and rain are over the mainland now.
The storm is being eroded as more of it drifts over the land. Probably the
*worst* of the wind and storm surge is over for San Pedro, but it looks
like they're still getting plenty of rain.

Having a strong hurricane park right on top of the island is one of the
worst things that could happen. I hope the damage is all to property and
not to people.

Shannon

Top

Links
Click for excellent scuba lessons with Elbert Greer!


Things to do

News
Daily News
Daily Weather

Classified Ads
BelizeNews.com
San Pedro Sun
Ambergris Today
SP Town Council
Channel 7
Channel 5
Amandala
Love FM
The Reporter
Caye Caulker
Chronicles

PLUS TV
TV Newscasts
Radio Stations

Click for our
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites

Event Guides
Event Calendar
Specials & Events
Things to Do
SanPedroScoop
iTravel Belize
Paradise Theater

Blogs
San Pedro Scoop!
Tia Chocolate
Tacogirl
My Beautiful Belize
I-Travel Belize
Belize Adventure
Belize Hub
Romantic Travel
Bound for Belize
Conch Creative
As The Coconuts Drop
More Blogs...
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites
Chaa Creek is an award-winning luxury Belize Resort, rated as one of the worlds best Eco Lodges. We are a pioneer in adventure travel to Belize since 1981!
White Sands Dive Shop - 5 Star PADI Dive Facility - Daily diving, SCUBA instruction and Snorkeling
Caribbean Inspired All Natural Condiments & Spice Blends, Over 100 are Gluten Free!
We manage a variety of homes, apartments, condos and commercial properties here on Ambergris Caye. Our minimum lease on ALL properties is six months.
Conch Shell Inn: All rooms are right on the beach in the heart of San Pedro, so within walking distance to anything and everything!!
Lilí Alphonse has snorkel equipment to fit anyone as well as Marine Park Tickets and flotation devices to assist those not as experienced.
Coastal Xpress offers a daily scheduled ferry run to most resorts, restaurants and private piers on the island of Anbergris Caye. We also offer  private and charter water taxi service.
Mini Chat

Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
December
S M T W T F S
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Who's Online
3 registered (wiley, 2 invisible), 33 Guests and 5 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Stats
18,675 Registered Members
44 Forums
64,060 Topics
462,316 Posts

Most users ever online: 1,262 @ 06/10/07 07:16 PM




AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com SanPedroDaily.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.