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#303666 - 10/11/08 10:56 AM South Beach vs Credit Crunch
Don Greife Offline
Us tourists really can offer little in the way of vocal concerns with local politics, developers and other corrupt groups but we do wonder just how a continuation of real dirt turning construction at South Beach is going to be financed in light of the worlds failure to provide credit even to buy a new ice box. IMHO;;; Ain't gonna happen soon.
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#303828 - 10/12/08 10:40 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Don Greife]
Danny2 Online   content

Don, I think you are correct. Big new changes are cumming like a freight train. Things like they were ain't never cumming back.

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#303957 - 10/12/08 08:44 PM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Danny2]
indygal Offline
Oh please - never is a long time.
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#303958 - 10/12/08 08:55 PM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: indygal]
Don Greife Offline
Well,, Being 78,,at least NEVER in my lifetime.
AND; I'm going to just wait till SP condos are reduced in price 30% like in Miami. How long do you think it will take?
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#303964 - 10/12/08 09:58 PM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Don Greife]
ScubaLdy Offline
For the last two years there have been a lot of us shaking our heads about over building here. I have a feeling we are not going to have much of a season this year.


Edited by ScubaLdy (10/13/08 11:47 AM)
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#303972 - 10/13/08 06:31 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: ScubaLdy]
Danny2 Online   content

Here's part of the scam that often is overlooked, imo. The cost of these projects, big picture, is $ per sq. ft. I have no idea what that is, none. I do know at first you get a big bang for the buck and during the finish stages a lot of money is needed but often not there. The general contractor or project manager over bills for work completed per sq. ft. He pays the sub contractor little and has money left over to seed other projects. By the time it comes to the finish roads, landscaping, lighting and all the rest of detailing the money is gone.

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#304033 - 10/13/08 11:01 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Danny2]
Canam Online   content
I still don't understand why more and more projects like these or "pillows" get approved, with less and less "heads" to rest upon them. There are enough unfinished timeshares/condo developments that call themselves "hotels and resorts" here. The problem is that none of these have any sort of financial cushion to help them through the tougher rental periods. They simply turn into defunct eye-sores, barely finished, if finished at all. The very few hotels/resorts that are here are not exactly bursting at the seams 24-7, 365.


Edited by Canam (10/13/08 11:02 AM)

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#304041 - 10/13/08 11:51 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Canam]
ScubaLdy Offline
We used to hear quoted that we had a 40% vacancy rate. Now I am hearing 40% occupancy rate. Airlines are cutting back on the number of planes they are bringing in each week. I tried to book on American for December and the web site says only Thursday, Friday and Sunday.
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#304078 - 10/13/08 03:04 PM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: ScubaLdy]
LOANSUM - AL K. Offline
Harriette, it appears Reef Village may have an occupancy rate of maybe 10%......looks like a ghost town to me.....of course if you have a boat it's easier to get to!
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#304090 - 10/13/08 05:33 PM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: LOANSUM - AL K.]
GBZ39 Offline
Occupancy at RV doesn't matter to Jeff.

His interest is in what is sold.

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#304178 - 10/14/08 10:04 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: GBZ39]
Don Greife Offline
We were at Banyun Bay last week and there were very few lights on after dark,, maybe 25%
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#304215 - 10/14/08 01:12 PM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Don Greife]
Sally1 Offline
My research, which is based on realtors I talked to in the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos, and is pretty conservative, has shown that you figure on a 30% occupancy rate for the entire year for your ocean front condo. property that you plan to put into a rental pool. That can vary depending on how you promote your own property. If you have no mortgage, then you really aren't swetting it too much. If there is a property on AC with a 25% occupancy rate in October, that's actually not too bad.

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#304296 - 10/14/08 08:14 PM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Sally1]
Short Offline
You MUST be kidding, unless you are talking about a resort with no staff, and no amenities like bar, restaurant, front desk, housekeeping, maintenance, security, concierge, transfers, rentals, etc. and then still... Lan Sluder captured the answer (60 to 65%) on his News and Opinion Blog with his August 20, 2006 article that I will quote below:
Originally Posted By: Lan Sluder's News and Opinion Blog
HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES LAG IN BELIZE Hotel occupancy rates in Belize lag those in other countries in the region and the world, studies show.

Occupancy rates vary significantly by area of the country. Over many years they have been highest in San Pedro (Ambergris Caye) and Belize District, which includes Belize City. They traditionally have been lowest in Toledo and Corozal districts, and remain that way.

Average annual hotel occupancy rates may be as low as 29%, according to one recent study.

Below are the reported occupancy rates for 2004, the latest official rates available. The Belize Tourism Board used to release occupancy stats regularly in news releases, but no longer does so.

Belize District 43.8%
Ambergris Caye 46.8
Caye Caulker 34.1
Cayo 33.5
Corozal 25.9
Orange Walk 46.5
Stann Creek 37.8
Placencia 41.2
Toledo 23.0
Offshore Islands 35.6
Average 40.7

Some analysts say that the actual occupancy rates in Belize are lower than the reported rates. One reason is that the BTB only samples about one-fourth of hotels in Belize for its statistics and does not monitor unregistered guesthouses and other hotels at all. Overall annual occupancy rate is actually about 27 to 29%, according to a 2006 report prepared for the Inter-American Development Bank. In other words, about three-fourths of hotel rooms are vacant on a given night. However, other observers say some hotel owners may not report all their guests, to avoid paying taxes, so that occupancy rates in some cases may actually be higher than reported.

Occupancy is less seasonal in some areas than other -- for example, occupancy rates drop significantly in late summer and fall in Stann Creek District, notably Placencia, while they stay higher in Caye Caulker and San Pedro.

To put these statistics in perspective, here are some annual occupancy rates (2005) for other countries and selected cities:

U.S. 69%
United Kingdom 73%
France 66%
Spain 66%
Italy 64%
Germany 60%
US Virgin Islands 67%
Barbados 73%
Bermuda 55%
Amsterdam 88%
New York City 87%
London 87%

Summer 2006 occupancy rates in the U.S. are projected at over 74%.

While operating costs vary greatly from hotel to hotel and area to area, in developed countries most hotel experts say that ideally hotels should achieve occupancy rates of 60 to 65% to operate efficiently and profitably.

Belize currently has about 5,500 hotel rooms. Most experts believe that, given that the country gets only a little over 230,000 overnight international visitors annually, the market is overbuilt and becoming more so, especially with the development of condotel projects and the opening of many small, sometimes unregistered hotels and guesthouses. (August 20, 2006)

Don't forget that realtors only want to sell and get their commission, and are not in the slightest interested whether you will actually make a buck out of your investment or loose money on it - worse, when you want to sell you have to go through them again, so they earn twice on you! Amanda, obviously I do not include you in those "bad realtors".

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#304338 - 10/15/08 07:56 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Short]
Sally1 Offline
Short, what I said is that the realtors in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, were the ones telling me that I should not DEPEND ON an occupancy rate higher than 30% in their areas of the Caribbean, for the entire year(which means 109 days rented out) in order to make the numbers work for covering taxes, assessments, insurance, management fees, utilities, and mortgage payments. I am conservative and I know that we can probably boost those numbers up with marketing, etc. What you are saying is that on AC, the occupancy rates are higher than that 30% rate I was counting on. You are reaffirming our decision to buy on AC instead of elsewhere in the Caribbean.

The beauty of AC is that the prices are low now and it's easier to pay cash so no mortgage is involved or if you have a mortgage, the payments are so low that you can weather the up's and down's of the market. My partners and I will make a decent profit with occupancy rates of 30%; with your occupancy rates, we will actually be sitting pretty. And remember, I haven't even figured in appreciation or the fact that we will have a place to stay at and enjoy for years to come. Bottom line is, if you are considering buying a home in the tropics, now would be a good time to do so on AC.

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#304344 - 10/15/08 08:25 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Sally1]
Pedro1 Offline
My business would and does lose money on a 45% occupancy-wages,taxes,electricity,upkeep,water,gasoline,general costs -for example the price of imported cheese has doubled in a year.
All the people who think they can come here buy something,and through rentals pay their maintenance/taxes(property taxes are so low they are a joke),running costs/upkeep/replacement furniture,social security,cost of employing a management company etc.(a mgmt company will always make money) are in for a major shock.


Edited by Pedro1 (10/15/08 08:33 AM)

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#304363 - 10/15/08 09:52 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Pedro1]
Sally1 Offline
Pedro, HELLO.. that's why I did a lower occupancy rate and didn't go higher. There are always ups and downs with any investment. Jesus, have you looked at any of your investment balance sheets in the last week? You're talking to someone whose family has been very involved in the real estate investment/rental property area. You have to crank the numbers yourself and then decide where to buy. You should always have a contingency/replacement fund. Remember that this is more of a pleasure/fun investment that just happens to be making a profit, more or less, depending on the market. We're taking a chance on the property appreciating and we're taking a chance on the rentability also. I think that we'll be just fine on both of those points, especially using the higher occupancy rate than what I used.

After having cranked the numbers, we have decided that AC is still a good place to buy right now. How can you argue with that since you are making a major investment yourself on AC as we speak, er, type? And something tells me, and of course I can't be sure about this, but I bet your investment is not "for fun" but rather "for profit", and that probably would be big profit.

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#304367 - 10/15/08 10:00 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Sally1]
Short Offline
Sally1, please don't forget that this thread is about South Beach!

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#304401 - 10/15/08 11:49 AM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Short]
Sally1 Offline
You're absolutely right. But it doesn't matter what development you are buying into, whether on AC or anywhere, you still have to crank your numbers to make sure that the investment works, if you want it to be an investment, that is. I sense in a lot of the writing in this blog a sense of wanting to protect AC from over development and reef destruction, etc., and believe me, I get it more than you may know. I am a diver. I love the ocean and the reef. To think that you can just buy into something for a quick, thoughtless profit, is not the way anyone should be buying down on AC. It's a beautiful place and we all need to be protective of it even those of us who are not lucky enough to live there full time. This should be a long term investment where you try to do the right things for the environment and for the people of AC.

I, for one, am not thrilled to see such a large gambling/casino development on AC. It's definitely not my bag and I am concerned about it. I think that most of us are on the same page, for that issue at least.

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#304408 - 10/15/08 12:06 PM Re: South Beach vs Credit Crunch [Re: Sally1]
Peter Jones Offline
Serious gambling/casinos attract get-rich-quick types (my personal word is scum). In such a lawless place you can expect those types to be much in evidence - just look at the track record here. I hope and expect that any casino opened at SB won't last long before someone sees his chance and walks off with the takings.

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