Heads up.

Tropical formation near Nicaragua 99L.

BAM models hook system towards Belize. Too early to say but potential is there enough for notice.

- Tradewind

Caribbean Visible Satellite Shot

Computer Models Track

Current models have it going through the most southern tip of the mainland.....so far.

Weather Underground Posting - about an hour ago .............. southern Belize does not need this kind of rain!


Disturbance 99L off the coast of Nicaragua
An area of disturbed weather (99L) has formed in the Southwest Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua. An ASCAT pass from 11:28 am EDT showed a circulation center developing near 14N 83W, about 100 miles offshore from Puerto Cabeza, Nicaragua. The pressure there was 1005 mb and falling at 3 pm EDT today. The region is under low wind shear, 5-10 knots. Satellite loops show a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms that is increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Heavy rain has moved into extreme northeast Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras.

The forecast for 99L
Most of the models forecast development of a tropical depression in this region by Wednesday. The system is expected to track northwest, just off the coast of Central America, until Tuesday afternoon. On Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing 99L to the west. It currently appears that the center of 99L will remain over water, which should allow the storm to intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water more than 50 miles from land and does not stall out, intensification should occur. The system will likely bring 5-10 inches of rain to northern Honduras tonight through Thursday, potentially causing flash flooding and destructive mudslides. Heavy rains may also spread over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon. It is 40% likely that the counterclockwise flow of air around the storm will grow large and strong enough to tap the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture, triggering very heavy rains of 10-15 inches along the Pacific coasts of northern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador, Tuesday through Thursday. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing severe flooding and life-threatening mudslides. By Thursday, 99L could be as far west as Belize (as forecast by the GFDL model), or wandering erratically in the Western Caribbean (as forecast by the NOGAPS model). Heavy rains will likely begin affecting Belize, northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wednesday. No models are currently forecasting a threat to the U.S. in the coming seven days from 99L.


Figure 3. Current satellite image of 99L.

Whoa, what happened to my last reply?


This thing is headed where the models say, west. Thought there would be more business on this board because of that.

Not sure what the intensity will be. Watch official advisories.

Edit: Thanks for the correction Amanda. Not sure how strong this will get.

Got hurricanes in my hair like rasta dreadlock knots! lol Welp, you guys can take it from here.

Omar is way over in the eastern caribbean.

we are more threatened by TD 16 at this time.

I think this will be 'Paloma' if and when it gets to Tropical Storm strength.NEMO has us on 'standby'

Gonna be windy and wet for a few days!!

forecasters saying winds are maxing out under 75mph

Do I need to re-stock my hurricane supplies?
(I mainly just ate all of the good stuff, like chips, and drank the beer )

here's the first track and wind speed data from Navy, who i consider the best



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

hey bunkster,, that's yer house! heads up!!

Yeah, but yer right there on the bad side Barn...

The 16th depression of the season, which would be called Paloma if it strengthened into a tropical storm, was expected to come ashore somewhere between eastern Honduras and Belize.

Its eventual strength would depend on how much time it spent over warm Caribbean waters.

The hurricane center's official forecast did not foresee the system becoming a hurricane before landfall.

Belmopan, Belize 14 October - A tropical storm watch has been issued for southern Belize as tropical depression No. 16 approaches the area. At 5 PM EDT 2100 UTC.the government of Belize through its National Emergency Organisation, NEMO, issued a tropical storm watch from Belize City southward to to the Guatemala border. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

NEMO head Noreen Fairweather chaired a meeting of the emergency coordinating organisation this afternoon and after a brieing from the Belize Meteorology Service, the tropical storm watch was declared. The National Coast Guard has deployed units to issue warnings to residents on the southern cayes (islands) and Turneffe Caye off the coast of Belize.

NEMO has advised residents in southern Belize to make urgent plans to move to higher ground and all vessels have been advised to seek safe harbour. Belize is in the rainy season and there is concern that the movement of Tropical Depression 16 over already water saturated land could lead to flash floods.


current track and data



The forecast for TD 16
Conditions are favorable for TD 16 to intensify into a tropical storm. The system is expected to track very coast to the coast of Honduras, and this proximity to land should limit intensification potential. A west-southwesterly motion into the northern coast of Honduras is not expected, since the latest set of model runs keeps TD 16 just offshore. However, it would not take much of a deviation in track for TD 16 to make landfall in northern Honduras. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water within 50 miles of land, slow intensification should occur, and the GFDL and HWRF models are expecting TD 16 to make landfall Thursday morning in Belize as a 50-55 mph tropical storm. If TD 16 manages to move farther from land, more significant intensification could occur, but that doesn't appear likely at this time.

==========================

Tropical depression threatening southern Belize

Since the beginning of October, Belizeans have been keeping their fingers crossed hoping that the month would pass quickly without any threats from natural disasters. Today it appears it’s not meant to be as around nine this morning tropical depression number sixteen formed just off the coast of Honduras and heading to southern Belize. According to Acting Chief Meteorologist Ramon Frutos, they have been monitoring the situation since the weekend and he advises residents in low lying areas to do the same as recent rainfalls can complicate matters.

Ramon Frutos, Acting Chief Meteorologist
“The general track of all the models combined have this thing moving westwards into southern Belize, so it is possible that tropical depression sixteen could intensify into a tropical storm tomorrow and if it reaches that strength before the tropical depression south of Puerto Rico, it will be called Marco. If the centre of tropical depression number sixteen remains offshore, then it is very possible that it could intensify into tropical storm tomorrow. That is something we will continue to monitor very closely and keep the general public abreast. What we are worried about in connection with this system is the rainfall it is bringing. The hurricane centre is predicting some four to eight inches of rainfall associated with tropical depression number sixteen as it moves over northern Honduras, north-eastern Nicaragua and southern Belize. In the hilly terrain and mountainous terrains of the region including southern Belize, they can expect rainfall in excess of fifteen inches and this amount of rainfall and the amount that we have been getting over the past couple of days could be very dangerous because it will cause rapid runoff and flash flood conditions in the hilly terrain of the Stann Creek, Toledo and even Cayo District. How early can this begin to materialize or occur? It could be as early as tonight or during the day tomorrow and Thursday night. My advice is for our citizens living in low lying areas close to rivers in the flood plains areas—because many of our communities in the south and central part of Belize are in the flood plains—should continue to monitor this very closely and begin to make preparations in case they need to evacuate and the evacuation could occur in the middle of the night so we should be prepared.”

District Emergency Committees have been notified of the storm and are on alert. As for the new Doppler radar, Frutos says it has been installed but it is still being tested and won’t be ready until the beginning of next month. The hurricane season closes at the end of November.

Belize joined Honduras in posting tropical storm warnings Wednesday as Tropical Depression 16 moved west with torrents of rain.

Both countries issued warnings for the entirety of their coasts and a tropical storm watch was in effect for the east coast of Guatemala, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami reported.

Toledo District (south) just announced the closing of all schools today at mid-day - the schools will remain closed Thursday and Friday. This is to be sure kids can get home before roads flood, and to be sure families can make preparations for evacuations if necessary.
LOVEFM news indicated that Rio Hondo (north) is rising now and nearly at flood stage.

Schools here in the Stann Creek Dist. are closed too.

A dive center friend of mine in Placencia told me last night that it was pretty damp down there. His biggest problem is keeping his boats afloat at the dock, as the rain keeps filling them up.

That is one of the major benefits of having a boat on a lift.

Tropical storm warnings have been dropped for northern Belize and Honduras as Tropical Depression 16 headed west Wednesday, U.S. forecasters said.
Both countries issued warnings for their coastlines earlier in the day. A tropical storm warning remained in effect for southern Belize to the Guatemala-Honduras border, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami reported.
At 5 p.m. the center of the depression had winds of 35 mph and was about 25 miles south-southeast of Limon, Honduras, and about 215 miles east of Monkey River Town, Belize. It was moving west about 7 mph., forecasters said.
Strengthening to tropical storm status with sustained winds of more than 39 mph was expected by Wednesday night, the report said.
Rainfall of as much as 8 inches was possible over northeastern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula with isolated rainfall up to 15 inches, the report said.
If the depression reaches tropical storm status, it will be named Paloma.

In the latest official discussion TD16 has been declared a remnant low.

Tropical Depression 16 moved ashore over northern Honduras yesterday and dissipated. However, moisture from the depression remains over the region, which could see additional heavy rains of 2-4 inches today. It is possible that the remains of TD 16 could move over the Eastern Pacific and regenerate into a tropical storm. Both the GFDL and UKMET models have indicated this possibility in recent runs.

No computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Tropical Depression Sixteen Situation Report # 1: Impact on Belize


Event:

Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 16 began affecting the southern areas of Belize from the evening of Wednesday October 15. The system is producing a lot of rainfall and this has resulted in flooding in number of the flood prone in the southern districts.

Prognosis

The system has moved inland over Central Guatemala and Western Nicaragua and is a remnant low which continues to weaken and dissipate. However, as of October 16, 2008 4.45pm(AST) The The National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) in Belize reported that the Moho, Sittee and South Stann Creek and Blue Creek Rivers were rising and that the communities of Machakila and Graham Creek were under flood warning. Flooding along the main tributary of the Belize River was also expected as heavy rains were experienced in the El Peten area in Guatemala.

The Meteorological Ofiice in Belize is predicting that an increase in shower activity may start affecting the country early next week due to an area of low pressure in the region.

The Situation

The National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) in Belize has reported that there is flooding in the Stann Creek and Toledo Districts. Hope Creek Village is severely affected and at the time of reporting (October 16, 2008) seven (7) families from that community were at the ITVET Shelter in Stann Creek.

Flooding was also reported in San Antonio, Douglas and San Roman Villages in Northern Belize.

The Kendal temporary crossing (the bridge was washed away earlier this year following the passage of Tropical Storm Arthur) was under six feet of water. The Belize Defence Force has been deployed to the area and has been facilitating crossing in a military craft.

As a precautionary measure, the Coast Guard, Fisheries and other crafts are strategically prepositioned in villages in the river valleys to provide quick evacuation in the event of flash floods.

In the Orange Walk District in the North, persons from Albion Island and San Antonio have voluntarily evacuated. No shelters have been opened.

National Actions

A National Meeting was held in the morning (Thursday, October 16) to discuss the situation and deploy assistance as required. Support is being provided for

NEMO District Committees in the South and North remain on high alert as the FLOOD WATCH remains in effect. Support has been prepositioned for evacuation in threatened areas.

Regional Actions

The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency Coordinating Unit (CDERA CU) continues to monitor the situation and will provide updates as required.

The Regional Response Mechanism remains on standby.

Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/EDIS-7KHSGU?OpenDocument