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#304007 - 10/13/08 04:38 PM Tropical Disturbance 16
Tradewind Offline
Heads up.

Tropical formation near Nicaragua 99L.

BAM models hook system towards Belize. Too early to say but potential is there enough for notice.

- Tradewind

Edited by Tradewind (10/14/08 04:43 PM)

#304009 - 10/13/08 04:43 PM Re: Invest 99L [Re: Tradewind]
Tradewind Offline

Edited by Tradewind (10/13/08 04:46 PM)

#304012 - 10/13/08 04:52 PM Re: Invest 99L [Re: Tradewind]
Tradewind Offline

#304080 - 10/13/08 10:11 PM Re: Invest 99L [Re: Tradewind]
Loansum-Al K Offline
Current models have it going through the most southern tip of the mainland.....so far.
I'm happier than a pig in s__t...a foot on the sand...and a Belikin in my hand!

#304085 - 10/13/08 11:04 PM Re: Invest 99L [Re: Loansum-Al K]
Diane Campbell Offline
Weather Underground Posting - about an hour ago .............. southern Belize does not need this kind of rain!

Disturbance 99L off the coast of Nicaragua
An area of disturbed weather (99L) has formed in the Southwest Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua. An ASCAT pass from 11:28 am EDT showed a circulation center developing near 14N 83W, about 100 miles offshore from Puerto Cabeza, Nicaragua. The pressure there was 1005 mb and falling at 3 pm EDT today. The region is under low wind shear, 5-10 knots. Satellite loops show a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms that is increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Heavy rain has moved into extreme northeast Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras.

The forecast for 99L
Most of the models forecast development of a tropical depression in this region by Wednesday. The system is expected to track northwest, just off the coast of Central America, until Tuesday afternoon. On Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing 99L to the west. It currently appears that the center of 99L will remain over water, which should allow the storm to intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water more than 50 miles from land and does not stall out, intensification should occur. The system will likely bring 5-10 inches of rain to northern Honduras tonight through Thursday, potentially causing flash flooding and destructive mudslides. Heavy rains may also spread over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon. It is 40% likely that the counterclockwise flow of air around the storm will grow large and strong enough to tap the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture, triggering very heavy rains of 10-15 inches along the Pacific coasts of northern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador, Tuesday through Thursday. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing severe flooding and life-threatening mudslides. By Thursday, 99L could be as far west as Belize (as forecast by the GFDL model), or wandering erratically in the Western Caribbean (as forecast by the NOGAPS model). Heavy rains will likely begin affecting Belize, northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wednesday. No models are currently forecasting a threat to the U.S. in the coming seven days from 99L.

Figure 3. Current satellite image of 99L.

#304164 - 10/14/08 04:21 PM Re: Invest 99L [Re: Tradewind]
Tradewind Offline

Whoa, what happened to my last reply?

This thing is headed where the models say, west. Thought there would be more business on this board because of that.

Not sure what the intensity will be. Watch official advisories.

#304170 - 10/14/08 04:39 PM Re: Tropical Storm Omar [Re: Tradewind]
Tradewind Offline

Edit: Thanks for the correction Amanda. Not sure how strong this will get.

Got hurricanes in my hair like rasta dreadlock knots! lol Welp, you guys can take it from here.

Edited by Tradewind (10/14/08 04:47 PM)

#304171 - 10/14/08 04:41 PM Re: Tropical Storm Omar [Re: Tradewind]
Amanda Syme Offline
Omar is way over in the eastern caribbean.

we are more threatened by TD 16 at this time.

#304180 - 10/14/08 05:11 PM Re:TD 16 [Re: Amanda Syme]
Marty Offline

#304181 - 10/14/08 05:13 PM Re:TD 16 [Re: Marty]
natalie p Offline
I think this will be 'Paloma' if and when it gets to Tropical Storm strength.NEMO has us on 'standby'

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