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#305382 - 10/19/08 05:08 PM invest 91
Amanda Syme Offline
just off shore.

possible something further south and east - keep a wary eye folks.


#305384 - 10/19/08 05:56 PM Re: invest 91 [Re: Amanda Syme]
Marty Offline

#305386 - 10/19/08 06:05 PM Re: invest 91 [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean Sea. This is not a reincarnation of Tropical Depression 16, but does have some of the moisture from that storm. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance has slowly increased over the past day (Figure 1). Wind shear is a high 20 knots, and is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days. This may allow some slow development of the disturbance. None of the computer models develop the disturbance, and NHC is giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. A slow west-northwestward motion across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to begin by Wednesday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan over the next three days.

#305443 - 10/20/08 09:09 AM Re: invest 91 [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Thunderstorm activity associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the Northwestern Caribbean sea  about 100mls east of the coast of Belize has changed little in organization over the past several hours. Additional development of this system is still possible before it moves inland over Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula in day or two. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula.

#305445 - 10/20/08 09:17 AM Re: invest 91 [Re: Marty]
SimonB Offline
Just went through the data on Cal's weather station. The rain started on September 15th, since that date there have been 4 days without rain. Total rainfall since September 15th - 19.33 inches! Best data I can find shows we usually average 7-10 inches for the same period. Hopefully I91 is the last of the rain for a while!

#305446 - 10/20/08 09:21 AM Re: invest 91 [Re: SimonB]
Amanda Syme Offline
Cal and I were away when Arthur hit the island. The power had gone out for so long even our back-up ran out of juice so the weather station couldn't report to the website. But the weather station itself runs for days so when we returned home we checked the stats. There were 26 inches of rain in about 3 days and a gust of 100mph winds.

Love this weather station.

#305454 - 10/20/08 10:00 AM Re: invest 91 [Re: Amanda Syme]
Marty Offline
man, 26 inches in THREE DAYS. WOW!!!! i love that weather station too!! i think we all do!!!!!

#305457 - 10/20/08 10:01 AM Re: invest 91 [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Jeff Masters this AM:
The forecast for 91L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days, which should allow some slow development of the disturbance. Steering currents are weak, and a slow movement west to a point near the Belize coast is possible today through Tuesday. Heavy rains will affect Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Wednesday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida on Friday or Saturday. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and I doubt 91L would be able to intensify into a hurricane in the face of that kind of shear.

#305458 - 10/20/08 10:07 AM Re: invest 91 [Re: Amanda Syme]
elbert Offline
Kate and I stayed. we stood some of the downed trees back up and it worked.
Author was very interesting erosion wise.
The beach is still recovering.
all those sea walls are going to be an erosion issue in the future.
The Dive Shops Daily Blog

#305466 - 10/20/08 11:00 AM Re: invest 91 [Re: elbert]
ScubaLdy Offline
I don’t remember exactly when it was in ‘03 or ‘04 but I lived above Manelly’s Ice Cream when we had a storm that hung right over down town all night. In an eight hour period we had 12” of rain.
Take only pictures leave only bubbles

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