Portofino Resort- Now with a new BEACH BAR!!
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#3192 - 10/02/00 12:33 PM Mon4am Official Resport
Marty Offline
HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON OCT 02 2000


...KEITH NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING BUT STILL A DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...POUNDING THE COAST OF BELIZE AND EASTERN YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT
70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

KEITH IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...HAVE LIKELY BEEN OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.


NOTE...IN ADDITION TO THE STORM SURGE FLOODING...RECENT REPORTS
INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EMPTIED THE BAY OF
CHETUMAL AND THAT PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WALKING ACROSS THE BAY. THIS IS
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION BECAUSE THE BAY WATER CAN RAPIDLY
RETURN AND FLOOD THE ENTIRE BAY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN SHORT
NOTICE. ALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BAY OF CHETUMAL SHOULD
REMAIN INSIDE AND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS AT ALL TIMES. THIS IS
A POTENTIALLY DEADLY SITUATION SO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTION NOW TO
SAVE YOUR LIFE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW.


HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...EASTERN MEXICO...BELIZE AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE PATH OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 20
INCHES.


REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...17.6 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion
HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000

HURRICANE KEITH HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT
LATEST RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT KEITH MAY HAVE BECOME STATIONARY...
AGAIN. RECON FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 975 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 85 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY OR A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN TAKING KEITH SLOWLY NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. OF COURSE...THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS AND IT
STILL HAS NOT OCCURRED. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT AND
THE MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THAT MEANS THAT KEITH COULD EASILY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR ANOTHER 12
TO 24 HOURS BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. OBVIOUSLY...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
KEITH...IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM CENTER FINALLY MOVES INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
 INITIAL     02/0900Z 17.6N  87.8W    85 KTS
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N  87.8W    80 KTS
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N  88.4W    50 KTS...INLAND
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.5N  89.0W    45 KTS
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 25.5N  91.5W    75 KTS
  
  
</font>

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-02-2000).]

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#3193 - 10/02/00 12:36 PM Re: Mon4am Official Resport
Anonymous
thank you for the update Marty!

Anything on Journey's End Resort or the Fox crew at that particular one?

Lenore Andriel

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