The first cool northern breeze of the season started last night , sure makes for a pretty Sunday morning.Sunny and light jacket weather but still with shorts and bare feet. A nice break from the hot days last week.Makes me smile when I read the weather mans report of 'Cold Front'

thank goodness the COLD front is here and the breeze is blowing the sweat from my overheated body. The electric storm last night was awesome and the many rain showers that moved through should help fill the cisterns. We needed a break!

LOVE this "cold front"!!!
Dr. Jeff Masters says that models are developing a system late next week in the SW Carib - we can sure use the rain.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass <http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds20.png> showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.

Jeff Masters

Posted by MaxWeather the Sailor's friend .....

**************

A massive fast moving cold front has slipped to the south and east now becoming stationery from Costa Rica to Bermuda. As it has moved across the southeast temperatures have significantly fallen off and winds picked up lots ...

The Atlantic north of 40 N is to say the least, hostile and will remain so for some time to come ....

The focus of a few is the western half of the Caribbean Sea and rightfully so! grrr

With a developing stationary Low over east coastal Costa Rica and the extended stationary Cold Front extending through the Bahamas to the rock containing significant precipitation not confined to Honduras and Nicaragua and the Caymans. A massive assembly of convection occupies the better part of the western third of the Caribbean Sea and very slowly slipping to the north and east.

Models though sketchy vary from nothing to oh yea! I go with the oh yea, this is going to be a tropical something within the next few days, let's say Friday at the latest! grrr

The stationary line is a compression point of northerly meeting easterly winds over the surface. The cooler air slipping under the warm moist Caribbean air is going to produce significant convection that is all ready producing cloud tops in excess of 50,000 feet in spite of dramatic shearing winds aloft. My focus extends along 80 W to Cuba and over eastern Cuba to the Turks and Caicos! The Turks should get the needed rains by Thursday as conditions develop.

Let's make a box, from 75-85 W and 10-25 N, that is the focus point for the next 72 hours! grrr Beyond the box the lower Bahamas and Bermuda are in for some winds and rains now. These conditions may prevail for the next 24-48 hours?

After the next three days, lets say Thursday, the upper level winds are going to subside and conditions significantly improve for tropical development and those within or near the box would be well advised to pay close attention to local and marine forecasts. grrr

Belize and the Yucatan should not pass this off as a miss just yet? Mucho depends on where and when this system within the box takes root? Once it establishes itself, it will become its own driving force and destination yet to be announced? This is the right place at the right time for a late season storm? There are considerable variables so we need to give it its due! grrr

Don't just sit and wait, prepare as you would and should for anything associated with a developing system! Significant precipitation is being incurred from Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras to the Cayman Islands and are not expected to stop soon! Jamaica, watch!

Always keep an eye to weather and be safe out there and right now most of the western Caribbean is not a very safe place!
Max

row of tropical waves across the atlantic today.... four of them. one in the neighborhood see Diane's post above...

Today's posting on 94L from WeatherUnderground.

Nothing alarming at all at this time - main message - be aware.  It would be a good idea to pull out your storm plan and read it over .......  check your fuel, clean your gutters, make sure you haven't eaten all that yummy hurricane food yet and check to see that your flashlights work.   

Western Caribbean Disturbance 94L Organizing
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:59 PM GMT on October 20, 2009
A broad 1010 mb low pressure area has developed near 13N 81W in the Western Caribbean, about 300 miles east of the Nicaraguan coast. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and not even much of a shift in wind direction associated with the low. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which will aid development. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 94L has not increased in intensity or areal coverage much over the past 24 hours, but it has begun getting more organized, with some curved bands beginning to form, indicating that a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere may be starting to spin up. The disturbance will bring 3-day rain totals of 4 - 8 inches to eastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras through Thursday, as 94L moves slowly northwestward. As the storm organizes, it may begin to pull moisture from the Pacific across Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, resulting in flooding rains of 4 - 8 inches along the Pacific slopes of those countries Wednesday through Friday.




The forecast for 94L
The SHIPS model forecasts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. Most of the models foresee a path taking 94L very close to the coast of Nicaragua and then along the north coast of Honduras, and the storm may move inland over one of these countries before it has time to develop into a tropical depression. Due to proximity to land, I give 94L just a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization, Friday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Wednesday or Thursday. The ECMWF model foresees that 94L will move northwards next week across Cuba and threaten South Florida, but none of the other models are predicting this. It is too early to know if 94L will be a threat to more than just Central America.

Monday - 2 Nov - the weather bloggers are a little more interested in our area this morning .........


Jeff Masters - WeatherUnderground
Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.


Rob Lightbown - Crown Weather
Possible Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Development Late This Week Into Next Week:The various model guidance including the GFS <http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_10m_gfs_00z.htm> , NAM, <http://www.txtornado.net/NAM/wna_slp_nam_12z.htm> Canadian <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmcloop.html> and European <http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP168.gif> models are all pointing to some sort of tropical cyclone development in either the western Caribbean or the Bay of Campeche late this week or this weekend. This has been a scenario that the model guidance has been hinting at on and off for at least the past week or so and I think it is something that really merits our attention..................... It appears that the trigger for this tropical development to happen is a high pressure system that will track eastward into the eastern United States behind a frontal system and low pressure development off of the New England coast on Thursday and Friday. This high pressure system will help bundle the energy and lower surface pressures in the western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend. Needless to say, I will be watching this entire situation very closely this week and will keep you all updated.

From the National Hurricane Center

700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

=======================

JEFF MASTERS TODAY

An area of low pressure with a surface circulation has developed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica. This disturbance, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days. Satellite loops clearly show that 97L has a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands have begun to develop. There is not very much heavy thunderstorm activity, though it is steadily increasing. An ASCAT pass from 10pm EST last night showed top winds of about 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

The disturbance is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 - 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range for the next five days over the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development over the next three days. The main limiting factor for development will be the slow movement of the 97L, which will allow it to stir up cold water from the depths, cooling surface SSTs.

The forecast for 97L
Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L's circulation, bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model; an alternate solution, provided by the GFS model, keeps the storm farther south, pushing it into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. With the storm just beginning to organize and steering currents weak, it is impossible to rate the likelihood of these scenarios. NHC is currently giving 97L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I rate 97L's chances at high (greater than 50%). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 97L on Wednesday afternoon.

===================
Rob Lightbown / Crown Weather Today

Possible Development In The Southwest Caribbean:

I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather located in the southwest corner of the Caribbean this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deeper thunderstorm activity this morning along with a evident spin in the clouds. QuikSCAT showed no low-level circulation, so I suspect that there is a mid-level circulation associated with this area of disturbed weather. Wind shear analysis indicates that there is around 10 knots of shear in this area and this is favorable for development. The entire area of disturbed weather is stationary and the wind aloft around this system are very weak and this suggests little movement over the next couple of days.

There are three possibilities for this system:

The first is that this system remains nearly stationary for the next two to three days and then tracks slowly northwestward just offshore of the coast of Central America this weekend before coming onshore on the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. The first scenario is being forecast by the GFS model.

The second possible scenario is that the energy and moisture from this system is pushed westward into Panama and eventually the eastern Pacific as we head into this weekend and next week. This is being forecast by the NOGAPS model.

The third possible scenario is that this system remains stationary through the end of this week and then tracks northward to near the Cayman Islands by Monday morning and then is pushed west-northwest by building high pressure to the north and it brushes the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late next Tuesday. This is being forecast by the European model.

Right now, I’m leaning more towards scenarios 1 and 3 and think that this system will remain nearly stationary for the next two to three days and that we will start seeing some forward motion from it this weekend. A track northwestward through the western Caribbean is quite possible this weekend into early next week with development and intensification through this entire timeframe. In addition to all of this, it appears that this area is supportive of development as wind shear profiles are forecast to be favorable for at least the next few days and the synoptic setup in this entire area is still summer-like and this area still has not experienced a strong enough cold front to end the Hurricane Season.

So, here is my thinking of this system: First, I am very surprised that this system has not been designated an Invest and I strongly suspect that it will be tagged as an Invest at some point today (It has now been declared Invest 97L as of 745 am EST). I expect slow development over the next two to three days as this disturbed weather remains stationary over the southwest corner of the Caribbean. It would not surprise me to see this system upgraded to a tropical depression by the end of this week. By this weekend, I think this system will slowly track northwestward just offshore of the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua as it slowly intensifies. As we get into next week, I think this system will be in the western Caribbean, possibly as a tropical storm, on Monday or Tuesday halfway between Belize and the Cayman Islands.

I will be keeping a very close eye on this area of disturbed weather and will keep you all updated. All interests in the western and southwestern Caribbean should keep close tabs on the progress of this area of disturbed weather. Check back at least once a day for the latest.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EST Wednesday morning.

Invest 97L Information
Model Track Forecast: