No Tropical Development is Expected

Last Update: 21-NOV-2009 06:15am EST

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. No tropical development is expected through the weekend.





http://hurricane.accuweather.com/

I plan to be in Caye Caulker this Friday thru tuesday. weather forecasts say thunderstorms everyday. Does that mean nice beach weather then an afternoon thunderstorm, then clear again? or overcast storms all week?

Would really appreciate any input as I have the option to postpone the vacation if the weather is not conducive to enjoy the beach, ocean, etc. some thunderstorms would be enjoyed as well...

Thank you

ignore those forecasts. the rain generally falls briefly on the cayes

:-)
yep, da Sooth speak!

Good news. Guess I'll get on the plane tomorrow. Thanks for the beta

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather has the following comments on what we might expect in the next few weeks.

Possibility For An Active End of September Into Early October:

Looking at the overall pattern across the entire Atlantic Basin, it appears that a pattern change is coming. Currently, much of the Atlantic Basin is unfavorable for tropical development due to the combination of strong wind shear and sinking air. It appears that another upward pulse in the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) may arrive in the Atlantic by the end of this month and continue into early October. This will have to be watched very closely as there are signs in the long range model data that the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico may become more active over the next 3 to 4 weeks. I am not and I repeat NOT forecasting a hurricane for these areas, but I am saying that these areas will need to be monitored very closely for tropical development as we head into late September and early October. Whether something forms remains to be seen, but it will be watched closely.

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather gives us this brief update on what we might expect in the next week or two.

Considering it’s late September, things are very quiet in the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Depression #8 formed yesterday in the far eastern Atlantic and it is forecast to be pulled northwest and northward into the open Atlantic over the next couple of days and is expected to dissipate in about 3 to 4 days.

Satellite imagery also showed a more impressive tropical disturbance located to the southeast of TD 8 and is located just off of the coast of Africa. This disturbance is at a further south latitude and it may slowly organize over the next few days. None of the forecast guidance forecasts that this disturbance will develop, however, environmental conditions may be favorable enough to warrant keeping an eye on this disturbance, however, any development will be slow to occur.

Elsewhere, there is no other areas of concern this morning and the forecast guidance forecasts no tropical cyclone development for at least the next 5 to 7 days. It should be noted, however, that the European model keeps forecasting some type of tropical development in the southwest Caribbean in about 7 to 9 days (October 3rd to October 5th). As for the other model guidance, the NOGAPS model forecasts some sort of tropical system to form in the southwest Caribbean on Friday and forecasts it to be located just offshore of the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua next Saturday. The GFS model only hints at something forming, but never really closes anything off. This is a climatologically favored area for development in October, so this is something that will need to be watched for closely.

From Dr. Jeff Masters / Weather Underground

Invest 91
A large tropical wave near 12N 46W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and is over warm waters, 29°C, which is 3°C above the threshold typically needed to allow tropical storm formation. Last night's QuikSCAT pass <http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds26.png> showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. The wave is poorly organized at present, with no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should continue to track west-northwest over the next 2 - 3 days, and spread heavy rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. By Thursday, the trough of low pressure that is pulling 91L to the north should bypass the storm, allowing a high pressure ridge to build in and force 91L due west. NHC is giving 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

*********
Since the posting above, NHC has increased the chance of development to "medium" - 30-50%.



**************

Rob Lightbown / Crown Weather posts:

I am keeping a close eye on a tropical disturbance, labeled Invest 91L <http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200991_model.html> . This disturbance is producing widespread, but disorganized, showers and thunderstorms and is located about 1150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This disturbance is under somewhat favorable environmental conditions and slow development seems likely, especially since it is so large in size as larger disturbances take longer to organize and develop. None of the global model guidance develops this system and this should be taken in account as the global models may be catching onto an environment that is not that favorable. The hurricane track models and hurricane intensity models forecast that Invest 91L will slowly intensify and may become a tropical storm over the next 2 to 3 days or so as shear values are forecast to be favorable over the next 24 hours and then become unfavorable during Tuesday and Wednesday and then become favorable again late this week. So, my thinking is that slow development seems possible over the next few days.

Again, what is interesting to me is that the global computer guidance forecasts development in the short term and then forecasts it to “poof” later this week. I’m not sure what the global models are seeing as conditions appear that they will become favorable as we head into late this week with a large area of high pressure building over and to the north of this disturbance. The fact that the global models are not developing this disturbance may be a good sign that nothing will come of Invest 91L.

If Invest 91L does develop, the steering flow suggests that it may track through the Caribbean and then turn to the north as it reaches the western Caribbean as a frontal system tracks into the Gulf of Mexico and across Florida by this weekend. This would be considered a classic October setup and I am hoping Invest 91L goes “poof” and that we don’t have to worry about it. At this time, Invest 91L does have my attention and I will be watching it closely

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200991_model.html
my favorite weather site

Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2009
A tropical wave (91L) near 17N, 52W, about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to generate considerable heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under high wind shear, 20 - 25 knots, and is over warm waters, 29°C. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no closed circulation, and top winds of 30 mph. However, satellite loops show that 91L now has a closed surface circulation, though strong upper-level winds out of the west are keeping the heavy thunderstorm activity confined to the east side of the center. Since there is not much dry air to the storm's west, the shear will not have as great a negative impact as we've seen in similar high-shear situations this year.

None of the computer models develop the wave, and they show moderate to high wind shear affecting 91L over the next 2 - 3 days. The storm will be steered northwest for the next 2 - 3 days by a trough of low pressure passing to the north. The northern Lesser Antilles may see some heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the southern portion of 91L on Thursday and Friday. By Friday, the trough will have passed far to the east, and high pressure will build in, which may force 91L to the southwest into the Caribbean, according to some model projections. Wind shear is expected to fall to the low to moderate range 3 - 5 days from now. If 91L holds together for the next 2 - 3 days and avoids interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola late this week, the storm could be trouble. NHC is currently giving 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, and the Hurricane Hunters are not on call to fly the storm. I think the storm has more potential to develop than NHC does, and put the odds of development over the next two days at medium (30 - 50%).

The first cool northern breeze of the season started last night , sure makes for a pretty Sunday morning.Sunny and light jacket weather but still with shorts and bare feet. A nice break from the hot days last week.Makes me smile when I read the weather mans report of 'Cold Front'

thank goodness the COLD front is here and the breeze is blowing the sweat from my overheated body. The electric storm last night was awesome and the many rain showers that moved through should help fill the cisterns. We needed a break!

LOVE this "cold front"!!!
Dr. Jeff Masters says that models are developing a system late next week in the SW Carib - we can sure use the rain.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass <http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds20.png> showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.

Jeff Masters

Posted by MaxWeather the Sailor's friend .....

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A massive fast moving cold front has slipped to the south and east now becoming stationery from Costa Rica to Bermuda. As it has moved across the southeast temperatures have significantly fallen off and winds picked up lots ...

The Atlantic north of 40 N is to say the least, hostile and will remain so for some time to come ....

The focus of a few is the western half of the Caribbean Sea and rightfully so! grrr

With a developing stationary Low over east coastal Costa Rica and the extended stationary Cold Front extending through the Bahamas to the rock containing significant precipitation not confined to Honduras and Nicaragua and the Caymans. A massive assembly of convection occupies the better part of the western third of the Caribbean Sea and very slowly slipping to the north and east.

Models though sketchy vary from nothing to oh yea! I go with the oh yea, this is going to be a tropical something within the next few days, let's say Friday at the latest! grrr

The stationary line is a compression point of northerly meeting easterly winds over the surface. The cooler air slipping under the warm moist Caribbean air is going to produce significant convection that is all ready producing cloud tops in excess of 50,000 feet in spite of dramatic shearing winds aloft. My focus extends along 80 W to Cuba and over eastern Cuba to the Turks and Caicos! The Turks should get the needed rains by Thursday as conditions develop.

Let's make a box, from 75-85 W and 10-25 N, that is the focus point for the next 72 hours! grrr Beyond the box the lower Bahamas and Bermuda are in for some winds and rains now. These conditions may prevail for the next 24-48 hours?

After the next three days, lets say Thursday, the upper level winds are going to subside and conditions significantly improve for tropical development and those within or near the box would be well advised to pay close attention to local and marine forecasts. grrr

Belize and the Yucatan should not pass this off as a miss just yet? Mucho depends on where and when this system within the box takes root? Once it establishes itself, it will become its own driving force and destination yet to be announced? This is the right place at the right time for a late season storm? There are considerable variables so we need to give it its due! grrr

Don't just sit and wait, prepare as you would and should for anything associated with a developing system! Significant precipitation is being incurred from Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras to the Cayman Islands and are not expected to stop soon! Jamaica, watch!

Always keep an eye to weather and be safe out there and right now most of the western Caribbean is not a very safe place!
Max

row of tropical waves across the atlantic today.... four of them. one in the neighborhood see Diane's post above...

Today's posting on 94L from WeatherUnderground.

Nothing alarming at all at this time - main message - be aware.  It would be a good idea to pull out your storm plan and read it over .......  check your fuel, clean your gutters, make sure you haven't eaten all that yummy hurricane food yet and check to see that your flashlights work.   

Western Caribbean Disturbance 94L Organizing
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:59 PM GMT on October 20, 2009
A broad 1010 mb low pressure area has developed near 13N 81W in the Western Caribbean, about 300 miles east of the Nicaraguan coast. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and not even much of a shift in wind direction associated with the low. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which will aid development. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 94L has not increased in intensity or areal coverage much over the past 24 hours, but it has begun getting more organized, with some curved bands beginning to form, indicating that a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere may be starting to spin up. The disturbance will bring 3-day rain totals of 4 - 8 inches to eastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras through Thursday, as 94L moves slowly northwestward. As the storm organizes, it may begin to pull moisture from the Pacific across Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, resulting in flooding rains of 4 - 8 inches along the Pacific slopes of those countries Wednesday through Friday.




The forecast for 94L
The SHIPS model forecasts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. Most of the models foresee a path taking 94L very close to the coast of Nicaragua and then along the north coast of Honduras, and the storm may move inland over one of these countries before it has time to develop into a tropical depression. Due to proximity to land, I give 94L just a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization, Friday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Wednesday or Thursday. The ECMWF model foresees that 94L will move northwards next week across Cuba and threaten South Florida, but none of the other models are predicting this. It is too early to know if 94L will be a threat to more than just Central America.

Monday - 2 Nov - the weather bloggers are a little more interested in our area this morning .........


Jeff Masters - WeatherUnderground
Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.


Rob Lightbown - Crown Weather
Possible Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Development Late This Week Into Next Week:The various model guidance including the GFS <http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_10m_gfs_00z.htm> , NAM, <http://www.txtornado.net/NAM/wna_slp_nam_12z.htm> Canadian <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmcloop.html> and European <http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP168.gif> models are all pointing to some sort of tropical cyclone development in either the western Caribbean or the Bay of Campeche late this week or this weekend. This has been a scenario that the model guidance has been hinting at on and off for at least the past week or so and I think it is something that really merits our attention..................... It appears that the trigger for this tropical development to happen is a high pressure system that will track eastward into the eastern United States behind a frontal system and low pressure development off of the New England coast on Thursday and Friday. This high pressure system will help bundle the energy and lower surface pressures in the western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend. Needless to say, I will be watching this entire situation very closely this week and will keep you all updated.

From the National Hurricane Center

700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

=======================

JEFF MASTERS TODAY

An area of low pressure with a surface circulation has developed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica. This disturbance, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days. Satellite loops clearly show that 97L has a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands have begun to develop. There is not very much heavy thunderstorm activity, though it is steadily increasing. An ASCAT pass from 10pm EST last night showed top winds of about 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

The disturbance is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 - 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range for the next five days over the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development over the next three days. The main limiting factor for development will be the slow movement of the 97L, which will allow it to stir up cold water from the depths, cooling surface SSTs.

The forecast for 97L
Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L's circulation, bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model; an alternate solution, provided by the GFS model, keeps the storm farther south, pushing it into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. With the storm just beginning to organize and steering currents weak, it is impossible to rate the likelihood of these scenarios. NHC is currently giving 97L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I rate 97L's chances at high (greater than 50%). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 97L on Wednesday afternoon.

===================
Rob Lightbown / Crown Weather Today

Possible Development In The Southwest Caribbean:

I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather located in the southwest corner of the Caribbean this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deeper thunderstorm activity this morning along with a evident spin in the clouds. QuikSCAT showed no low-level circulation, so I suspect that there is a mid-level circulation associated with this area of disturbed weather. Wind shear analysis indicates that there is around 10 knots of shear in this area and this is favorable for development. The entire area of disturbed weather is stationary and the wind aloft around this system are very weak and this suggests little movement over the next couple of days.

There are three possibilities for this system:

The first is that this system remains nearly stationary for the next two to three days and then tracks slowly northwestward just offshore of the coast of Central America this weekend before coming onshore on the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. The first scenario is being forecast by the GFS model.

The second possible scenario is that the energy and moisture from this system is pushed westward into Panama and eventually the eastern Pacific as we head into this weekend and next week. This is being forecast by the NOGAPS model.

The third possible scenario is that this system remains stationary through the end of this week and then tracks northward to near the Cayman Islands by Monday morning and then is pushed west-northwest by building high pressure to the north and it brushes the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late next Tuesday. This is being forecast by the European model.

Right now, I’m leaning more towards scenarios 1 and 3 and think that this system will remain nearly stationary for the next two to three days and that we will start seeing some forward motion from it this weekend. A track northwestward through the western Caribbean is quite possible this weekend into early next week with development and intensification through this entire timeframe. In addition to all of this, it appears that this area is supportive of development as wind shear profiles are forecast to be favorable for at least the next few days and the synoptic setup in this entire area is still summer-like and this area still has not experienced a strong enough cold front to end the Hurricane Season.

So, here is my thinking of this system: First, I am very surprised that this system has not been designated an Invest and I strongly suspect that it will be tagged as an Invest at some point today (It has now been declared Invest 97L as of 745 am EST). I expect slow development over the next two to three days as this disturbed weather remains stationary over the southwest corner of the Caribbean. It would not surprise me to see this system upgraded to a tropical depression by the end of this week. By this weekend, I think this system will slowly track northwestward just offshore of the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua as it slowly intensifies. As we get into next week, I think this system will be in the western Caribbean, possibly as a tropical storm, on Monday or Tuesday halfway between Belize and the Cayman Islands.

I will be keeping a very close eye on this area of disturbed weather and will keep you all updated. All interests in the western and southwestern Caribbean should keep close tabs on the progress of this area of disturbed weather. Check back at least once a day for the latest.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EST Wednesday morning.

Invest 97L Information
Model Track Forecast:

From National Hurricane Center;
700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.



From Crown Weather:
Southwestern Caribbean Tropical Disturbance - Invest 97L:
The area of low pressure in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean is now designated Invest 97L. This system continues to show signs of organization and the Hurricane Hunters will be out there this afternoon to investigate it. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development and intensification and I suspect that 97L will be classified as a tropical depression either today or tomorrow (at the latest).

For the couple of days, I expect little forward motion from 97L as it is caught in an area of very light winds. As for a future track after Friday, the model guidance are mixed on where they want to track 97L and in fact they point once again towards about four possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: That the system will track slowly northwestward and either come ashore on the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras this weekend or just skirt the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua this weekend and that 97L will be located in the western Caribbean just east of Belize on Monday. This scenario is supported by the consensus guidance, the Canadian model and a couple of the BAM models.

Scenario 2: That 97L will track a little further offshore and end up just west of the Cayman Islands early next week. This scenario is being forecast by the GFDL model.

Scenario 3: This system will remain caught down in the southwest Caribbean for the next 5 to 7 days and not pull northwestward. This is a scenario that is being forecast by the UKMET and European models.

Scenario 4: That the energy from Invest 97L will be transferred over to the eastern Pacific and that a storm would then form in the eastern Pacific instead. This is a forecast that is being presented by the GFS model and the NOGAPS model.

So, first for the “easy” part. I foresee very little forward motion for the next two days or so and in addition I think 97L will be upgraded to a tropical depression either today or at the latest tomorrow. Satellite imagery this morning showed a disturbance that is becoming better organized with each new satellite frame. Now, after Friday: we need to step back and see what’s going to be happening at a synoptic level and also look over to the eastern Pacific and see what’s going on there. Satellite imagery showed an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific as well and should the eastern Pacific system ramps up intensity wise it will increase the shear over the western Caribbean and put a stop to any development of Invest 97L and this is what the GFS and NOGAPS model may be picking up on.

I think right now it is a wait and see scenario, I am leaning somewhere between Scenario 1 and Scenario 3 and think that an extremely slow forward motion to the northwest this weekend seems most plausable so that by Monday morning this system will be located in the western Caribbean near the northeast coast of Honduras (16 North Latitude, 84 West Longitude) as perhaps a weak tropical storm.

With that said, I am not ruling out any of the above scenarios as they all are quite possible. In fact, should 97L intensify quickly, then a track northward towards the Cayman Islands would occur as it would take advantage of the upper level wind flow and this what is being forecast by the GFDL model. At the same time, if 97L tracks inland into Nicaragua and Honduras, then very little development would occur and that is just as likely a scenario.

I will be keeping a very close eye on Invest 97L and will keep you all updated. All interests in the western and southwestern Caribbean should keep close tabs on the progress of this area of disturbed weather. Check back at least once a day for the latest.

Weaher Update: http://www.sanpedrodaily.com/weather.html

JEFF MASTERS

Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.

Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

=====================


CROWN WEATHER:
Hurricane Ida:
Here is the 7 am Eastern Time Information On Hurricane Ida:
Location: 12.8 North Latitude, 83.4 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph.
Movement: Northwest or 310 Degrees at a forward speed of 7 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 millibars or 29.15 inches.

Ida continues to intensify this morning and according to satellite estimates it is close to hurricane strength; in fact, I would not be surprised to see Ida attain hurricane strength at some point this morning before it comes ashore in Nicaragua this afternoon. Once ashore, Ida is expected to weaken tonight through Friday and the storm is expected to reemerge over the northwestern Caribbean on Saturday where it will be in an area of favorable environmental conditions and warm sea surface temperatures and strengthening is once again likely this weekend as the storm tracks from the northwestern Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. It’s entirely possible that Ida may not survive its journey over land, especially if it pushes inland further west than the current forecast track; but I am not forecasting this and expect Ida to survive its journey over land. My take on this is that Ida may actually track more along the coast and not push too far inland and if this is indeed the case, then slow weakening, slower than the NHC forecast would be on the tables and Ida could then be stronger than forecast once it reaches the northwestern Caribbean on Saturday. More on these thoughts in the next paragraph.

Ida is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 7 mph. Ida is forecast to track to the northwest between a weak high pressure system over the north-central Caribbean Sea and a trough of low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ida is then forecast to turn to the north-northwest and perhaps even due north this weekend into next week as a trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico tugs it northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The long range guidance like the GFS and European models forecast Ida to make it as far north as the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday before it is pushed back to the south by building high pressure on Wednesday and next Thursday. Now, my take on this is that slow moving tropical systems tend to want to stay over the water as long as possible and I would not be surprised today to see Ida first stall just offshore of Nicaragua and then crawl north or north-northwest right along the shoreline. I do believe that the GFDL model is way overdone in its forecast of a upper Category 3 hurricane near western Cuba in 5 days; however, I do not believe that Ida will track as far inland as the NHC forecast suggests and in fact looking at satellite imagery it shows that the cloudmass associated with Ida has been stretched to the north overnight and that tells me that this could be a precursor to a forward movement to the north-northwest or even north right along the coast or just offshore of the coast for a while today before it crosses the coast and then tracks just inland from the coast from later today through Friday.

A track a bit further east like I am thinking could mean two things: One is that it emerges over the northwestern Caribbean sooner as early as Friday evening and two is that it does not weaken as quickly as the NHC forecast and it emerges as a stronger system and thus strengthens into a stronger storm this weekend into next week. As I have already mentioned, I think the GFDL model is way overdone and think that Ida could still be a low end tropical storm when it emerges in the northwestern Caribbean and then strengthens into possibly a hurricane this weekend as it tracks from the northwestern Caribbean over the weekend to the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

It needs to be emphasized that life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are likely over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras for at least the next couple of days.

All interests in the western and southwestern Caribbean should keep a very close eye on the progress of Ida and this includes Central America, the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EST Friday morning.

Hurricane Ida Information:

Track Forecast:

Navy Track

I like this hurricane site the best.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[b]Tropical Storm Ida Eyes Belize[/b]

After a blessedly slow hurricane season, with November here, it was just beginning to look like Belize might be home free....but it won’t be that easy to escape this hurricane season unscathed. Tropical Storm Ida – the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed this afternoon off the coast of Nicaragua. It is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour and it is moving northwest at about 6 miles per hour. And that is the news tonight because that northwest track has it heading in Belize’s direction. So is Tropical Storm Ida a threat? That is what we asked Meteorologist Frank Tench.

Frank Tench, Meteorologist
“The model products are suggesting that there is a good chance for this system to intensify over the next few days and model forecasts are suggesting a variety of paths with the most probable path that the storm will emerge over the northwest Caribbean by Saturday morning.”

Keith Swift,
“When will it affect Belize?”

Frank Tench,
“At this time the threat of this form to Belize is very minimal but project paths do suggest that the storm would be over the waters of the northwest Caribbean by Saturday morning and from that point of view, monitoring the system is of greatest importance.”

Keith Swift,
“When will we know if it will be a threat to Belize?”

Frank Tench,
“Well that is a day to day situation because first the storm has to move over land, either over Nicaragua or Honduras between today and Friday and then once it emerges back over the waters of the northwest Caribbean on Saturday, we still have to monitor the progress and the state the storm is in once it gets over the waters. So it is too early to really say how much it is going to affect our country.”

Keith Swift,
“Worst case scenario, will it be mainly a rain event?”

Frank Tench,
“At this time it seems that most of the rain is going to remain over the sea or along the coast over the next few days as the storm heads nearer to the coastland of Belize. And also fairly strong winds will increase as early as tomorrow along coastal waters of Belize.”

Keith Swift,
“For the person at home watching tonight, what is your advice to them?”

Frank Tench,
“Monitoring the progress of the system on a day to day basis, listen to the report issued by the weather service. That would be the key thing for the general public to do at this time.”

The storm is moving slowly and experts predict that it will likely strengthen into a hurricane. It is the 9th named storm in a season that many thought was all but over. Tench says that there’s a reason the season doesn’t end until November 30th.

Frank Tench,
“Storms have occurred in November before. For Belize it is probably going to be a rare thing to track a storm in November but storms do occur in November and the fact of the matter is the hurricane season ends officially November 30th.”

Keith Swift,
“And this has been a very quiet season, especially for us here in this part of the Caribbean. Where did this storm come from?”

Frank Tench,
“It comes from the preferred area where storms generally tend to form this time of the year, the western or southwest Caribbean. That is the preferred area that storms tend to form at that beginning and at the end of the hurricane season. So from that point of view, it is not unusual.”

It is of note that both hurricanes Hattie and Mitch formed in the southwest Caribbean. Click here to track Ida.

Brief Update -

Ida is a Category One hurricane currently impacting Honduras and
Nicaragua.
Check your list of various weather websites for continued forecasts &
updates on Ida and it's progress.

Regarding Ida and Belize: the message from NEMO is that at this time
there are no warnings issued for Belize / stay informed and be ready
to act if the storm poses a threat over the weekend.

Issued by NOAA at 1:00 pm today... IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM.

IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TODAY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM EST.

Ida Now a Tropical Depression

All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued at this time. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the northeast coast of Honduras from Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

The most dangerous aspect of this storm over the next several days will be life-threatening rainfall. Rainfall in excess of 15 to 20 inches will fall across eastern Nicaragua and parts of eastern Honduras through the weekend, leading to dangerous flooding and mudslides.

No storm warnings for our area.
Flooding expected on mainland.
For your records, please note NEMO emergency number below.

Excerpt from last night's news:

NEMO will remain activated over the weekend.
Their national toll free hotline number is 636.
That’s right, just three numbers, 6-3-6. It can be called from any telephone.
The number can be used for disaster related emergencies.


==================


Ida survives its Central American crossing

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

NAVY:


=======

JEFF MASTERS:
Ida strengthens, could be a hurricane for the Yucatan

Tropical Storm Ida is slowly strengthening, as it heads north-northwest towards an encounter with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ida's heavy thunderstorms are expanding in area, and the cloud tops are cooling, indicating that the updrafts in the storm are growing stronger and pushing higher into the atmosphere. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and is forecast to remain moderate through Sunday night. SSTs are a warm 29°C, and the total ocean heat content is over 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for intensification. The rains have ended over Nicaragua and Honduras, and Ida dumped up to eleven inches of rain along the coast in Nicaragua, causing flooding that damaged thousands of homes, but caused no deaths or injuries as of yet.


Figure 1. Satellite-estimated rainfall from Ida. The dark red colors (275 mm) represent rainfall in excess of about eleven inches. Image credit: NASA/TRMM project. Wunderground meteorologist Dr. Rob Carver presents another estimate of Ida's precipitation in his blog today.

The forecast for Ida
The moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots should allow for continued slow but steady intensification of Ida through Sunday afternoon, as long as the center remains over water. I give Ida a medium (30 - 50% chance) of reaching Category 1 hurricane strength before arriving at the Yucatan, since the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is so high. We'll have a better idea of Ida's current strength early this afternoon, when the Hurricane Hunters have had time to investigate the storm.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 46% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. The odds of receiving hurricane force winds are given as 3%. Given the current trend in organization of Ida, these numbers should probably be bumped up to about 60% and 5%, respectively.

Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.

==============

CROWN WEATHER:
Hurricane Ida:
Here is the 6 am Eastern Time/5 am Central Time Information On Hurricane Ida:
Location: 20.8 North Latitude, 85.7 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 mph.
Movement: Northwest or 325 Degrees at a forward speed of 12 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 millibars or 29.03 inches.

Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found a 90 mph hurricane late last night with a 984 millibar central pressure. I expect Ida to strengthen some more today and for it to reach Category 2 strength either today or tonight. The reason for this thinking is because Ida will be over some very warm ocean waters for the next 24 hours or so and the environment is somewhat favorable. I suspect that Ida will peak at between 100 and 105 mph later this afternoon and tonight. As we get into Monday and Tuesday, Ida will start to track into cooler sea surface temperatures during Monday and also into an area of higher wind shear; although I continue to believe that Ida’s forward motion will line up with the southwesterly wind shear and cause a net shear of nearly zero and thus not weaken as quickly as you would normally see. The global models forecast that Ida will start to become extratropical during Tuesday. I’m not convinced that Ida will be extratropical by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The latest GFDL model forecasts that Ida will come ashore as a Category 1 hurricane near Mobile, Alabama late Monday night. The latest HWRF model forecasts that Ida will come ashore as a Category 1 hurricane near Pensacola, Florida around midnight Monday night. In addition, the cyclone phase evolution webpage forecasts that Ida will remain a warm cored tropical system right through landfall. So, I have to disagree with the National Hurricane Center and I do believe that Ida will still be a tropical system and come ashore as a tropical system.

Ida is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph. Ida is forecast to come very close to the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula by early this afternoon and Ida will then track into the Gulf of Mexico tonight and then speed up in forward speed on Monday. Based on the latest model guidance and also the strength of the incoming trough, I have to disagree with the NHC on the timing of Ida. I think the storm will reach the northern Gulf much quicker than the NHC forecast; in fact, the GFS model forecasts Ida will make landfall in the extreme western Florida panhandle on Tuesday morning. The European model forecasts that Ida will be ashore on Monday night as does the GFDL, HWRF and Canadian models. So, my thinking is that Ida will be in the northern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening and then come ashore somewhere between Apalachee Bay, Florida and Gulfport, Mississippi with the most likely area being between Mobile, Alabama and Fort Walton Beach, Florida. The time of landfall will be between midnight Monday night and 9 am Tuesday morning. The strength of Ida at landfall looks to be somewhere between a 65 mph tropical storm and a 80 mph Category 1 hurricane.

The northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel will have hurricane conditions today, especially late this morning into this afternoon. Very heavy rainfall, hurricane force winds and a storm surge of up to 4 feet above ground level is likely in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.

Ida will effect much of the northern Gulf coast with heavy rainfall of 2 to 6 inches, tropical storm force winds, high seas and coastal flooding starting on Monday and continuing through Tuesday. I understand, but respectfully disagree, on the National Hurricane Center letting the local NWS offices handle Ida with local watches and warnings and not issue a Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane Watch for parts of the northern Gulf Coast. So, residents and vacationers along the northern Gulf coast should closely monitor local media or their local National Weather Service office for the latest watches and warnings.

this morning we get the classic view of a storm heading thru the chute between cancun and cuba.