Like everywhere, there is a 100% chance of dying.
Living in SAT, where I do, a city of 1.5 million or so souls, I reside in an area where the random chance of being a murder victim, given that I'm not involved in drugs or gangs, is low. But I also go to areas where such random murders have happened in the city to good people. In Belize, with about 300,000 souls living in the whole country, making your "close neighbors" many, the randomness of being a violent crime victim is directly proportional to the living of a high-risk lifestyle or having a lifestyle that would be attractive as a source of goods or cash to a violent criminal.