From National Hurricane Center;
700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.



From Crown Weather:
Southwestern Caribbean Tropical Disturbance - Invest 97L:
The area of low pressure in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean is now designated Invest 97L. This system continues to show signs of organization and the Hurricane Hunters will be out there this afternoon to investigate it. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development and intensification and I suspect that 97L will be classified as a tropical depression either today or tomorrow (at the latest).

For the couple of days, I expect little forward motion from 97L as it is caught in an area of very light winds. As for a future track after Friday, the model guidance are mixed on where they want to track 97L and in fact they point once again towards about four possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: That the system will track slowly northwestward and either come ashore on the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras this weekend or just skirt the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua this weekend and that 97L will be located in the western Caribbean just east of Belize on Monday. This scenario is supported by the consensus guidance, the Canadian model and a couple of the BAM models.

Scenario 2: That 97L will track a little further offshore and end up just west of the Cayman Islands early next week. This scenario is being forecast by the GFDL model.

Scenario 3: This system will remain caught down in the southwest Caribbean for the next 5 to 7 days and not pull northwestward. This is a scenario that is being forecast by the UKMET and European models.

Scenario 4: That the energy from Invest 97L will be transferred over to the eastern Pacific and that a storm would then form in the eastern Pacific instead. This is a forecast that is being presented by the GFS model and the NOGAPS model.

So, first for the “easy” part. I foresee very little forward motion for the next two days or so and in addition I think 97L will be upgraded to a tropical depression either today or at the latest tomorrow. Satellite imagery this morning showed a disturbance that is becoming better organized with each new satellite frame. Now, after Friday: we need to step back and see what’s going to be happening at a synoptic level and also look over to the eastern Pacific and see what’s going on there. Satellite imagery showed an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific as well and should the eastern Pacific system ramps up intensity wise it will increase the shear over the western Caribbean and put a stop to any development of Invest 97L and this is what the GFS and NOGAPS model may be picking up on.

I think right now it is a wait and see scenario, I am leaning somewhere between Scenario 1 and Scenario 3 and think that an extremely slow forward motion to the northwest this weekend seems most plausable so that by Monday morning this system will be located in the western Caribbean near the northeast coast of Honduras (16 North Latitude, 84 West Longitude) as perhaps a weak tropical storm.

With that said, I am not ruling out any of the above scenarios as they all are quite possible. In fact, should 97L intensify quickly, then a track northward towards the Cayman Islands would occur as it would take advantage of the upper level wind flow and this what is being forecast by the GFDL model. At the same time, if 97L tracks inland into Nicaragua and Honduras, then very little development would occur and that is just as likely a scenario.

I will be keeping a very close eye on Invest 97L and will keep you all updated. All interests in the western and southwestern Caribbean should keep close tabs on the progress of this area of disturbed weather. Check back at least once a day for the latest.

Weaher Update: http://www.sanpedrodaily.com/weather.html

JEFF MASTERS

Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.

Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

=====================


CROWN WEATHER:
Hurricane Ida:
Here is the 7 am Eastern Time Information On Hurricane Ida:
Location: 12.8 North Latitude, 83.4 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph.
Movement: Northwest or 310 Degrees at a forward speed of 7 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 millibars or 29.15 inches.

Ida continues to intensify this morning and according to satellite estimates it is close to hurricane strength; in fact, I would not be surprised to see Ida attain hurricane strength at some point this morning before it comes ashore in Nicaragua this afternoon. Once ashore, Ida is expected to weaken tonight through Friday and the storm is expected to reemerge over the northwestern Caribbean on Saturday where it will be in an area of favorable environmental conditions and warm sea surface temperatures and strengthening is once again likely this weekend as the storm tracks from the northwestern Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. It’s entirely possible that Ida may not survive its journey over land, especially if it pushes inland further west than the current forecast track; but I am not forecasting this and expect Ida to survive its journey over land. My take on this is that Ida may actually track more along the coast and not push too far inland and if this is indeed the case, then slow weakening, slower than the NHC forecast would be on the tables and Ida could then be stronger than forecast once it reaches the northwestern Caribbean on Saturday. More on these thoughts in the next paragraph.

Ida is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 7 mph. Ida is forecast to track to the northwest between a weak high pressure system over the north-central Caribbean Sea and a trough of low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ida is then forecast to turn to the north-northwest and perhaps even due north this weekend into next week as a trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico tugs it northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The long range guidance like the GFS and European models forecast Ida to make it as far north as the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday before it is pushed back to the south by building high pressure on Wednesday and next Thursday. Now, my take on this is that slow moving tropical systems tend to want to stay over the water as long as possible and I would not be surprised today to see Ida first stall just offshore of Nicaragua and then crawl north or north-northwest right along the shoreline. I do believe that the GFDL model is way overdone in its forecast of a upper Category 3 hurricane near western Cuba in 5 days; however, I do not believe that Ida will track as far inland as the NHC forecast suggests and in fact looking at satellite imagery it shows that the cloudmass associated with Ida has been stretched to the north overnight and that tells me that this could be a precursor to a forward movement to the north-northwest or even north right along the coast or just offshore of the coast for a while today before it crosses the coast and then tracks just inland from the coast from later today through Friday.

A track a bit further east like I am thinking could mean two things: One is that it emerges over the northwestern Caribbean sooner as early as Friday evening and two is that it does not weaken as quickly as the NHC forecast and it emerges as a stronger system and thus strengthens into a stronger storm this weekend into next week. As I have already mentioned, I think the GFDL model is way overdone and think that Ida could still be a low end tropical storm when it emerges in the northwestern Caribbean and then strengthens into possibly a hurricane this weekend as it tracks from the northwestern Caribbean over the weekend to the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

It needs to be emphasized that life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are likely over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras for at least the next couple of days.

All interests in the western and southwestern Caribbean should keep a very close eye on the progress of Ida and this includes Central America, the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EST Friday morning.

Hurricane Ida Information:

Track Forecast:

Navy Track

I like this hurricane site the best.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[b]Tropical Storm Ida Eyes Belize[/b]

After a blessedly slow hurricane season, with November here, it was just beginning to look like Belize might be home free....but it won’t be that easy to escape this hurricane season unscathed. Tropical Storm Ida – the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed this afternoon off the coast of Nicaragua. It is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour and it is moving northwest at about 6 miles per hour. And that is the news tonight because that northwest track has it heading in Belize’s direction. So is Tropical Storm Ida a threat? That is what we asked Meteorologist Frank Tench.

Frank Tench, Meteorologist
“The model products are suggesting that there is a good chance for this system to intensify over the next few days and model forecasts are suggesting a variety of paths with the most probable path that the storm will emerge over the northwest Caribbean by Saturday morning.”

Keith Swift,
“When will it affect Belize?”

Frank Tench,
“At this time the threat of this form to Belize is very minimal but project paths do suggest that the storm would be over the waters of the northwest Caribbean by Saturday morning and from that point of view, monitoring the system is of greatest importance.”

Keith Swift,
“When will we know if it will be a threat to Belize?”

Frank Tench,
“Well that is a day to day situation because first the storm has to move over land, either over Nicaragua or Honduras between today and Friday and then once it emerges back over the waters of the northwest Caribbean on Saturday, we still have to monitor the progress and the state the storm is in once it gets over the waters. So it is too early to really say how much it is going to affect our country.”

Keith Swift,
“Worst case scenario, will it be mainly a rain event?”

Frank Tench,
“At this time it seems that most of the rain is going to remain over the sea or along the coast over the next few days as the storm heads nearer to the coastland of Belize. And also fairly strong winds will increase as early as tomorrow along coastal waters of Belize.”

Keith Swift,
“For the person at home watching tonight, what is your advice to them?”

Frank Tench,
“Monitoring the progress of the system on a day to day basis, listen to the report issued by the weather service. That would be the key thing for the general public to do at this time.”

The storm is moving slowly and experts predict that it will likely strengthen into a hurricane. It is the 9th named storm in a season that many thought was all but over. Tench says that there’s a reason the season doesn’t end until November 30th.

Frank Tench,
“Storms have occurred in November before. For Belize it is probably going to be a rare thing to track a storm in November but storms do occur in November and the fact of the matter is the hurricane season ends officially November 30th.”

Keith Swift,
“And this has been a very quiet season, especially for us here in this part of the Caribbean. Where did this storm come from?”

Frank Tench,
“It comes from the preferred area where storms generally tend to form this time of the year, the western or southwest Caribbean. That is the preferred area that storms tend to form at that beginning and at the end of the hurricane season. So from that point of view, it is not unusual.”

It is of note that both hurricanes Hattie and Mitch formed in the southwest Caribbean. Click here to track Ida.

Brief Update -

Ida is a Category One hurricane currently impacting Honduras and
Nicaragua.
Check your list of various weather websites for continued forecasts &
updates on Ida and it's progress.

Regarding Ida and Belize: the message from NEMO is that at this time
there are no warnings issued for Belize / stay informed and be ready
to act if the storm poses a threat over the weekend.

Issued by NOAA at 1:00 pm today... IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM.

IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TODAY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM EST.

Ida Now a Tropical Depression

All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued at this time. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the northeast coast of Honduras from Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

The most dangerous aspect of this storm over the next several days will be life-threatening rainfall. Rainfall in excess of 15 to 20 inches will fall across eastern Nicaragua and parts of eastern Honduras through the weekend, leading to dangerous flooding and mudslides.

No storm warnings for our area.
Flooding expected on mainland.
For your records, please note NEMO emergency number below.

Excerpt from last night's news:

NEMO will remain activated over the weekend.
Their national toll free hotline number is 636.
That’s right, just three numbers, 6-3-6. It can be called from any telephone.
The number can be used for disaster related emergencies.


==================


Ida survives its Central American crossing

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.