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#378608 - 05/29/10 03:01 PM Tropical storm Agatha
Marty Offline

...Agatha moving slowly northeastward towards Guatemala...
...Heavy rains and gusty winds affecting extreme southeastern
Mexico...Guatemala...and western El Salvador...

summary of 1100 am PDT...1800 UTC...information
location...13.3n 93.1w
about 120 mi...195 km...S of tapachula Mexico
about 160 mi...260 km...WSW of Puerto de San Jose Guatemala
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...NE or 55 degrees at 5 mph...7 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1003 mb...29.62 inches

watches and warnings
changes with this advisory...


Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Pacific coasts of extreme southeastern Mexico...all of
Guatemala...and all of El Salvador from Boca de pijijiapan Mexico
southeastward to the El Salvador-Honduras border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area outside United
States...please monitor products issued by your National
meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
at 1100 am PDT...1800 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 13.3 north...longitude 93.1 west. Agatha is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph...7 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Hazards affecting land
wind...tropical storm-force winds are expected to reach the Pacific
coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico later tonight and
Sunday morning...making outside preparations difficult or

Rainfall...this system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over extreme southeastern
Mexico...Guatemala...and much of El Salvador...with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches through Sunday. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge...a storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

#378661 - 05/30/10 04:17 PM Re: Tropical storm Agatha [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NEMO remains on high Alert following the flash flood event that has been affecting people in central and southern Guatemala, southeastern Mexico and El Salvador over the past 24 hours due to the torrential rains generated by Tropical Storm Agatha, which formed near the coast of El Salvador and Guatemala on the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday morning.

Media reports out of Guatemala indicate at least 16 casualties and 11 missing as a result of flash floods, landslides and mudslides generated by the heavy downpours. Agatha was expected to dump 10-20 inches of rain over the area, with possible 30 inches in some parts through Sunday.

TS Agatha has dissipated over the high mountains of southern Guatemala during the early hours of this morning and downgraded to a depression. However, a large amount of moisture continues to move northeastwards across Guatemala, southern Belize, El Salvador, Mexico and Honduras. This condition is favourable for more rainfall across the region including western and southern Belize during the rest of today, tonight and Monday morning.

The National Hurricane Centre is projecting the potential for heavy rainfall to continue over much of these areas during the next day or two. Model estimates for Belize are projecting rainfall totals of 2 – 3 inches over parts of the Toledo, Stann Creek and Cayo Districts during the next 24 hours. Rainfall totals could be higher in the elevated terrain, which could generate flash floods conditions in already saturated areas of these districts.

NEMO advises residents in low lying and flood prone areas to remain alert, monitor water levels in their area before nightfall and prepared to move to higher ground in the event of sudden rise in river and stream levels. People are advised to continue to listen to the official releases by NEMO and the National MET Service for updates.

#378696 - 05/31/10 09:48 AM Re: Tropical storm Agatha [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Monday, May 31, 2010 640 am EDT/540 am CDT

The Latest In The Tropical Atlantic:
What is left of Agatha is nearing the Gulf of Honduras this morning. Satellite imagery showed thunderstorm activity firing just east of Belize. There is pretty good vorticity present at the 850 millibar level near Belize and this should move off of the coast today. Wind shear values in this area are favorable for development. Based on this, I think there is a moderate chance for a surface low pressure system to form in this area and it is something that will need to be watched closely over the next day or two.
None of the forecast guidance shows development from this system. The reason for this is because wind shear values increase to over 30 to 40 knots as you travel north of Jamaica. Based on the fact that this system will be moving into this area of unfavorable wind shear by tomorrow, I give this system a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. This system will, however, bring an increase in rainfall to south Florida during Tuesday and then this increase in rainfall will spread north into central Florida during Wednesday.
By late this week, I will be keeping an eye on the deep southwest Caribbean. A tropical wave now located near Trinidad and Tobago will track into the western Caribbean and potentially interact with the established Monsoon Trough by late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development, however, only the NOGAPS model is forecasting tropical cyclone development; with the other model guidance showing no development. So, it is something to watch for during this week.

#378735 - 05/31/10 02:16 PM Re: Tropical storm Agatha [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Tropical Storm Agatha made landfall in Guatemala. It quickly weakened to an area of low pressure. That remnant low has now reemerged in the Caribbean off the coast of Belize.

The Hurricane Center says pressures are actually up a bit and development doesn't seem too likely. So it still seems the most likely outcome is the potential for enhanced thunderstorms and heavy rains.


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