TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90
NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS
BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT
ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED
WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT...
ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Evacuation plans being reviewed in San Pedro Town
frank panton
Because Tropical Depression number one is eerily close to Belize, it has prompted the National Emergency Management Organization to spring into action. Many residents are already stocking up for any eventuality and the depression has altered major plans that were in store for this weekend on the islands. News Five spoke late this evening with the NEMO Representative in San Pedro, Frank Panton, about the latest plans on that island leading into Saturday.
Via Phone: Frank Panton, NEMO Rep., San Pedro
“What’s happening out here is that the weather deteriorated somewhat and then it eased off a bit. But we are looking and we are tracking the storm both physically and by predictions of the models. We are basing most of our actions on our physical track as it occurs and at the present moment the center of activity of the depression—it is now determined to be a depression—at about two hundred and forty to two hundred and fifty miles east of Belize and travelling on a westward track. It would give us, at ten to twelve miles per hour, roughly twenty-four to thirty-six hours for the activity to arrive here on our shores and the track seems like it will carry it pretty close if not over San Pedro.”
Marion Ali
“What are the plans being made out there right now, overnight and into Saturday?”
Via Phone: Frank Panton
“Okay, the EOC has been opened and continues activity. We have decided to have specific meetings; we just finished one and our next meeting will be at nine o’clock tonight to view the chartered intensifying of the storm and then we will meet again tomorrow morning at five in the morning again to review. This is because we need to know how strong the storm is really expected to be and whether we will have to make an off island evacuation. If that has to be done then we have to make up our minds by tomorrow morning. Also, we have hotels that are actually very active right now and there are lots of people in town and their plans and they have to catch planes to get out of here. These are people from abroad and BETEX is having a meeting as we speak too and they have another meeting out here tomorrow. So they are pretty worried about what plans to make and it will be difficult for them because they will have to change flights at the last moment and things like that. So that’s the situation; we’re basically deciding whether to evacuate or now. We have not issued an evacuation warning. The evacuation is important if the storm becomes very strong, above a category one. If it’s just a category one we would not necessarily advise evacuation of the island but we don’t know. The San Pedro Day event was cancelled by midday by the mayor herself and all the plans for the San Pedro week which is a big activity out here, is postponed until next weekend.”
Marion Ali
“And that’s for throughout the two islands and the other coastal areas?
Via Phone: Frank Panton
“I just spoke to Caye Caulker and they have just made up their minds that they will cancel their Lobster Fest out there but I don’t know if the word is out yet.”
Channel 5
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