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#387580 - 09/11/10 02:51 PM Weather caution, 92L this week
azbob Offline
Time to watch this one with potential to become Julia as a Cat3-4 and hit Yucatan next Thursday:
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29
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#387583 - 09/11/10 03:06 PM Weather caution, 92L next week
Marty Offline
As you can see from the notice below, the forecasters view 92-L (soon to be Julia) in a variety of ways.



The discussion from Crown Weather - today, 11 Sept:

Eastern Caribbean Tropical Disturbance (Invest 92-L):

A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean is showing signs of further organization this morning as showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have increased. Environmental conditions are favorable for development and this could become our next tropical depression and perhaps our next named storm, Julia.

Model guidance has been very wishy-washy on whether this will develop. The GFS model continues to say no on development while model guidance like the European model forecasts this to start to develop in earnest by early next week as it tracks to the west of Jamaica. Other models like the Canadian and NOGAPS models side with the GFS model on saying no to development. So, while I am seeing sure signs of development this morning, I still want to be conservative in my forecast on this system.

Now, the track models from NHC forecast a general west-northwest track over the next several days with the consensus models forecasting a track over Jamaica on Tuesday and then near the Cayman Islands on Wednesday and towards the Yucatan Peninsula later next week. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity models forecast significant intensification with it becoming a hurricane by Monday. The GFDL model forecasts a westward track that takes it south of Jamaica on Monday night and forecasts significant intensification when its between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula around the middle of next week striking the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane Wednesday night or Thursday. The HWRF model on the other hand forecasts a northwest track that takes it over Hispaniola which virtually destroys this system.

So, at this point, I think slow, but steady development may be the way to go for Invest 92-L and I do suspect that we will see this become a tropical depression sometime this weekend and become Tropical Storm Julia probably on Monday or so. A track towards the west-northwest seems most likely with this system potentially tracking close to Jamaica on Monday night or Tuesday morning as a tropical storm and then near the Cayman Islands later Tuesday as a tropical storm and then a potential landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane on Thursday.

All interests in the Caribbean, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor this system.


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#387588 - 09/11/10 04:08 PM Re: Weather caution, Julia next week [Re: Marty]
Judyann H. Offline
Thank you for posting Azbob & Marty...I watch these daily; however, I simply don't have enough experience to tell which ones are threatening us....
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#387590 - 09/11/10 04:24 PM Re: Weather caution, Julia next week [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
weather underground....

tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


CLICK HERE for larger version of the above map


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#387640 - 09/12/10 12:36 PM Re: Weather caution, Julia next week [Re: Marty]
Diane Campbell Offline
She's looking more organized this morning and is headed in our general direction.

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#387643 - 09/12/10 03:16 PM Re: Weather caution, Julia next week [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
today from Crown Weather:

I think slow development and I think this system will wait to become a tropical depression and tropical storm until it is west of Jamaica on Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This system could make a potential landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a upper end tropical storm on Wednesday night.

Even if this system does not develop into a tropical cyclone, it will bring heavy rainfall with the threat for flash floods and mudslides to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba over the next couple of days or so.

All interests in the Caribbean, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor this system.

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#387707 - 09/13/10 02:14 PM Re: Weather caution, 92L this week [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Crown weather:



The European model, which has been the most consistent of the models, continues to forecast development of this disturbance starting tomorrow night when its between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula. The Euro model then forecasts this system crossing the Yucatan Peninsula during Wednesday night and Thursday. The HWRF model forecasts development and intensification once it is west of Jamaica late tomorrow night and Wednesday and forecasts this system to come ashore on the northern Yucatan Peninsula as a upper end tropical storm late Wednesday night and Thursday. The GFDL model also holds off on developing and strengthening of this system until it is west of Jamaica late tomorrow. It is also quicker with its forecast track and indicates this system coming ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday morning as a Category 1 hurricane.

A track into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night seems likely with it entering the Yucatan Peninsula just south of Cozumel as a moderately strong tropical storm.

=======================
weather underground:

Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, centered about 100 miles south of Jamaica, has changed little over the past day. The storm remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression, but time is running out for it to do so. Satellite loops this morning do not show a surface circulation, but 92L does have a moderate area of intense disorganized thunderstorms that are bringing heavy rain to Jamaica this morning. Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.67" of rain thus far this morning from 92L.

Forecast for 92L
Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate for the next five days. The waters beneath are hot, 29.8C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air has been interfering with development of 92L. NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday at 40%. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday, when it will move over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico several hundred miles south of the Texas border. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon.

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#387770 - 09/14/10 02:03 PM Re: Weather caution, 92L this week [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Showers and thunderstorms continue to pulse up and down with a broad area of low pressure located just west of Jamaica this morning. Recent satellite images over the past two to three hours indicate that a concentrated area of thunderstorm activity has formed very close to the center, which looks to me to be located near 18 North Latitude, 80 West Longitude. Observations from this area indicate that the circulation is getting better defined and this system may be finally developing. I had discussed that I thought this system would wait until it is west of Jamaica to develop and this looks to be coming true.

If this system continues to organize the way it is, I suspect it may be upgraded to a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. Invest 92-L is forecast to track into the Yucatan Peninsula just south of Cozumel Wednesday afternoon and then track over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night before making it into the northern Bay of Campeche Thursday morning. I do think that this will be Tropical Storm Karl when it comes ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula. Once it is in the northern Bay of Campeche, it will have about 60 hours over very warm waters to develop and intensify.

As it stands right now, a strong ridge of high pressure over the Gulf coast should steer this system into eastern Mexico very near or just north of Tampico on Saturday night. As for potential intensity at landfall on the east coast of Mexico, I do think that this will be a Category 1 or perhaps low end Category 2 hurricane. This system should stay far enough south to prevent a direct strike on south Texas, however, all interests in south Texas should still keep a close eye on this system in case the track shifts further north.

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#387773 - 09/14/10 02:15 PM Re: Weather caution, 92L next week [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
NEMO On High alert

And as we told you at the top of our newscast, there's more murder and mayhem to report from the city, but first, we turn our attention to a weather system that has put NEMO on high alert.

There is a trough of low pressure extending from eastern Jamaica to Costa Rica that could develop in the next 48 hours. While it is not expected to strengthen into anything more than a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm, it threatens to produce heavy rainfall in northern Belize. Forecasters expect at least two to three inches of rainfall in the north which they warn could increase the risk of flooding.

NEMO's national executive met today to review the situation and they are officially in a state of high alert

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#387793 - 09/14/10 04:22 PM Re: Weather caution, 92L next week [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Weather - tonight and tomorrow

From Weather Underground .......... today, 14 September:

Caribbean disturbance 92L
Tropical disturbance 92L over the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula, has become more organized this morning. The storm remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression, but time is running out for it to do so. There is no evidence of a surface circulation on satellite loops this morning, but the cloud pattern of 92L has become more circular, with low-level spiral bands developing on the west and north sides of the storm. 92L has a moderate but increasing area of intense thunderstorms; these are bringing heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba this morning.

Forecast for 92L
Rains from 92L will spread over Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Wednesday, bringing peak accumulations in the 4 - 8 inch range. Lesser peak amounts of 2 - 4 inches are possible over northern Honduras. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next five days. The waters beneath are hot, 29.7C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L; this dry air has been interfering with development of 92L, and will continue to do so. NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Thursday at 40%; I'll give it a 50% chance. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday afternoon, when it will move over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L west or west-southwest to a second landfall in Mexico between Veracruz and Poza Rica early Saturday morning. The shape of Mexico's Bay of Campeche and the topography of the mountains surrounding the Bay help air spiral in a counterclockwise fashion, aiding tropical storm development, and 92L has its best chance of development once it crosses into the Bay of Campeche. With the shear there expected to be low and the waters warm, I give a high 70% chance that 92L will be a tropical depression or tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche. The GFDL model is predicting 92L could be a hurricane at landfall near Veracruz on Saturday morning; the other intensity models are much less aggressive. Given the rapid development of Hermine in a similar location last week, residents of the Mexican Gulf Coast should be wary of the possibility that 92L could intensify into at least a strong tropical storm before making landfall Friday night or Saturday morning. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon.

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