From Crown Weather:
Long Range Tropical Trouble Possible:
I am also monitoring a couple of disturbances that may go ahead and develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The first disturbance is now just coming off of the coast of Africa with a second disturbance now over west-central Africa that should emerge in the eastern Atlantic later this week. The overall pattern starting next week will become somewhat different as there is forecast to be a much stronger high pressure ridge that builds much further west. So, any systems coming off of Africa will have the opportunity to track all the way westward into the Caribbean and potentially the Gulf of Mexico.
The GFS model has been quite consistent in forecasting that either a piece of the disturbance near the west coast of Africa or a piece of energy from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone will break off and try and develop in the central and western Caribbean in about 7 to 10 days from now. Other model guidance like the European model forecast that the development will occur much further east about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles in 9 to 10 days from now.
So which scenario is more realistic?? Well, given the fact that during the second half of September, it becomes more unlikely that development will occur well east of the Lesser Antilles and development occurs further west like the GFS model forecasts. In addition, the ocean heat content between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is lower now because of upwelling caused by Earl and now Igor and ocean waters in the Caribbean have been virtually untouched. So, I am leaning closer to the idea of a slow developing low riding system that will have to be closely watched over the next week or two in case it does make it into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.