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Marty Offline OP
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The model guidance as a whole continues to strongly hint at development in the western Caribbean late next week or next weekend as a tropical wave is forecast to track across the Caribbean next week and will be the focus for this possible development.

Looking at the latest model guidance, the GFS model forecasts development out of the southwest Caribbean in about 7 to 8 days from now and ultimately forecasts this system to be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the month. The latest European model forecasts that development will hold off until about 9 to 10 days from now and would occur in the southwest Caribbean. The Canadian model is now the most bullish and forecasts a system to be forming near Belize in 10 days from now and would be pulled northeastward by a strong trough over the eastern United States. The NOGAPS model forecasts this development to occur in about 7 days from now just south and southwest of Jamaica.

One thing the global model guidance all agree on is that a fairly deep trough will track across the eastern United States during the last few days of September into the first couple of days of October. So, if something is indeed developing in the western Caribbean like many of the model guidance members suggest, then it could be pulled northward and be a real threat to the United States.

Crown Weather

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Monday 20 Sept - from WeatherUnderground:


The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Crown Weather saying basically the same thing this morning.


Change your Latitude
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Crown Weather Today - 21st - Probably too much information for most of us ........ but interesting to get inside the way forecasters heads work!


**********

Eastern Caribbean Disturbance, Likely To Be Classified Invest 95-L In Next Couple of Days:

Now to talk about the system that may get all of the headlines over the next 7 to 10 days and beyond. I am closely monitoring a tropical disturbance that is located over the Windward Islands this morning. This system has been bringing squally weather to these areas and this squally weather will continue today. This disturbance is forecast to track westward over the next few days and I think it stands a good chance of developing into Tropical Storm Matthew by the end of this week or at the very latest this weekend when it is located in the western Caribbean.

The global forecast models continue to differ wildly on how this system will develop and where it will eventually track. The latest GFS model forecasts a track that first takes it into Central America this weekend and then forecasts it to turn northeastward early next week and eventually track over Cuba and the Bahamas missing Florida. I'm pretty skeptical with this type of track as this is the type of track you see in late October. I think the GFS model may be overdoing the strength of the trough and I think in the end you will see a track further west due to a stronger ridge of high pressure. Also, there is a couple of other reasons to find the GFS model suspect, the first is that the energy associated with this system is currently located around 11 North Latitude and will stay at about that latitude over the next few days. The second is that the model consensus moves the trough of low pressure over the eastern United States to near 80 West Longitude by early next week which is either due north or slightly northwest of the western Caribbean disturbance which would cause a northward track. Where the disturbance develops exactly in the Caribbean highly dictates where it'll go, but I favor a more northward or northwestward track rather than the northeast track forecast by the GFS model.

Looking at the other model guidance, the Canadian model forecasts development of this system in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts it to track into Central America this weekend and then slowly meander its way up to the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week. Ultimately, the Canadian model pulls this system northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week and forecasts it to be located in the central Gulf of Mexico by next Thursday.

The European model is forecasting development in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts this system to turn northwestward missing Central America this weekend. By next week, the European model forecasts this system to slow way down in the northwestern Caribbean during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before being pulled northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday. Looking at the upper air pattern for 10 days out forecast by the European model, it shows a track that would put the west coast of Florida at risk from this system.

Now, what should we take away from this?? As of this morning, we are already seeing convection increasing across the Windward Islands and I think you will see slow development until it gets west of 75 West Longitude late this week. The model guidance as a whole now are trending towards faster development late this week in the southwestern Caribbean and I have every reason to believe this given the favorable environmental conditions and very warm ocean waters. At some point, this system will be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico given the overall weather pattern and I think you will see this happen around the middle part of next week. In addition, based on the overall pattern, areas from New Orleans and points east should be most concerned with this system due to the weakness forecast over the eastern United States.

I realize that this system will be causing a lot of concern over the coming days. I want you to come away from this discussion informed, but not alarmed. We are talking about a system that hasn't even formed yet. So, for now, we should just monitor this potential system closely and look for model trends and consistency in the model guidance. Once this system develops into a tropical cyclone, we should be able to get a much better idea on where it may track. So, for now, it is best to be informed and prepared and I will be keeping you all updated on the latest regarding this potential system.

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Marty Offline OP
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just for general information, the daily tropical outlook with predictions from Accuweather and Crown Weather is posted every day here:

//ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/378224/

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Thanks Marty ! A great service - much appreciated.
:-)


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Marty Offline OP
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Here's what Jeff Masters has to say about 95L as of this morning.

********************

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.

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Marty Offline OP
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This is a system that will need to be watched very closely. Right now, Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba are at most risk from this system and all interests in these areas should closely monitor this system.

Right now, there are a couple of scenarios that could unfold with Invest 95-L. The first is that if the core of this system remains over water or just scrapes along the coast of Honduras, then we may be looking at a fairly strong hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean by the end of this weekend. With this system forecast to be pulled northward by an approaching trough of low pressure, we could be looking at a scenario of a strong hurricane tracking into the Gulf of Mexico by next Wednesday or so.

The second scenario is that this system will make landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday night and Saturday and end up dissipating over the mountainous terrain of Central America and never reach the Gulf of Mexico.

//ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/378224/

Last edited by Marty; 09/22/10 07:58 AM.
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Marty Offline OP
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What to With Out For With New Weather System

As you saw in the weather report a few minutes ago, there's a tropical system in the eastern Caribbean which could have implications for Belize. Predictions for the movement of this system is likely to be west-northwest towards the western Caribbean. What does this mean for you? Today we found out more from our Chief Met Officer.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist
"There is a area of disturb weather near the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curassow in the south eastern Caribbean and presently it's about disorganize, but as it heads westwards and reaches just to the south of Jamaica conditions become more favorable for this system to develop. Probability is very high once it reaches like I said southern Jamaica conditions there will be almost perfect for it to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24-36 hours. Its moving towards the west about 15 miles per hour and computer models are suggesting that this system could be east of us in about 96 hours which will take it around Sunday morning if it continues on its present track. We should pay attention to this weather system because some of the forecast models are indication a wide variety of scenarios that are likely to develop. One forecast model is suggesting that it could go thru the Yucatan channel and the other forecast to the next extreme pushes this system thru Nicaragua and Honduras which would weaken it and it would die over the mountains there, however as a forecaster the most likely scenario is just clipping the north eastern tip of Honduras and then heading into the gulf of Honduras and that could spell trouble for us."

The Belize Meteorological Service says they will be keeping a close eye on the system and will be updating the public with current information.

Channel 7


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Eeek. Not easy to relax these next few days.

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