The model guidance as a whole continues to strongly hint at development in the western Caribbean late next week or next weekend as a tropical wave is forecast to track across the Caribbean next week and will be the focus for this possible development.

Looking at the latest model guidance, the GFS model forecasts development out of the southwest Caribbean in about 7 to 8 days from now and ultimately forecasts this system to be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the month. The latest European model forecasts that development will hold off until about 9 to 10 days from now and would occur in the southwest Caribbean. The Canadian model is now the most bullish and forecasts a system to be forming near Belize in 10 days from now and would be pulled northeastward by a strong trough over the eastern United States. The NOGAPS model forecasts this development to occur in about 7 days from now just south and southwest of Jamaica.

One thing the global model guidance all agree on is that a fairly deep trough will track across the eastern United States during the last few days of September into the first couple of days of October. So, if something is indeed developing in the western Caribbean like many of the model guidance members suggest, then it could be pulled northward and be a real threat to the United States.

Crown Weather

Monday 20 Sept - from WeatherUnderground:


The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Crown Weather saying basically the same thing this morning.

Crown Weather Today - 21st - Probably too much information for most of us ........ but interesting to get inside the way forecasters heads work!


**********

Eastern Caribbean Disturbance, Likely To Be Classified Invest 95-L In Next Couple of Days:

Now to talk about the system that may get all of the headlines over the next 7 to 10 days and beyond. I am closely monitoring a tropical disturbance that is located over the Windward Islands this morning. This system has been bringing squally weather to these areas and this squally weather will continue today. This disturbance is forecast to track westward over the next few days and I think it stands a good chance of developing into Tropical Storm Matthew by the end of this week or at the very latest this weekend when it is located in the western Caribbean.

The global forecast models continue to differ wildly on how this system will develop and where it will eventually track. The latest GFS model forecasts a track that first takes it into Central America this weekend and then forecasts it to turn northeastward early next week and eventually track over Cuba and the Bahamas missing Florida. I’m pretty skeptical with this type of track as this is the type of track you see in late October. I think the GFS model may be overdoing the strength of the trough and I think in the end you will see a track further west due to a stronger ridge of high pressure. Also, there is a couple of other reasons to find the GFS model suspect, the first is that the energy associated with this system is currently located around 11 North Latitude and will stay at about that latitude over the next few days. The second is that the model consensus moves the trough of low pressure over the eastern United States to near 80 West Longitude by early next week which is either due north or slightly northwest of the western Caribbean disturbance which would cause a northward track. Where the disturbance develops exactly in the Caribbean highly dictates where it’ll go, but I favor a more northward or northwestward track rather than the northeast track forecast by the GFS model.

Looking at the other model guidance, the Canadian model forecasts development of this system in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts it to track into Central America this weekend and then slowly meander its way up to the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week. Ultimately, the Canadian model pulls this system northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week and forecasts it to be located in the central Gulf of Mexico by next Thursday.

The European model is forecasting development in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts this system to turn northwestward missing Central America this weekend. By next week, the European model forecasts this system to slow way down in the northwestern Caribbean during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before being pulled northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday. Looking at the upper air pattern for 10 days out forecast by the European model, it shows a track that would put the west coast of Florida at risk from this system.

Now, what should we take away from this?? As of this morning, we are already seeing convection increasing across the Windward Islands and I think you will see slow development until it gets west of 75 West Longitude late this week. The model guidance as a whole now are trending towards faster development late this week in the southwestern Caribbean and I have every reason to believe this given the favorable environmental conditions and very warm ocean waters. At some point, this system will be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico given the overall weather pattern and I think you will see this happen around the middle part of next week. In addition, based on the overall pattern, areas from New Orleans and points east should be most concerned with this system due to the weakness forecast over the eastern United States.

I realize that this system will be causing a lot of concern over the coming days. I want you to come away from this discussion informed, but not alarmed. We are talking about a system that hasn’t even formed yet. So, for now, we should just monitor this potential system closely and look for model trends and consistency in the model guidance. Once this system develops into a tropical cyclone, we should be able to get a much better idea on where it may track. So, for now, it is best to be informed and prepared and I will be keeping you all updated on the latest regarding this potential system.

just for general information, the daily tropical outlook with predictions from Accuweather and Crown Weather is posted every day here:

http://ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/378224/

Thanks Marty ! A great service - much appreciated.
:-)

Here's what Jeff Masters has to say about 95L as of this morning.

********************

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.

This is a system that will need to be watched very closely. Right now, Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba are at most risk from this system and all interests in these areas should closely monitor this system.

Right now, there are a couple of scenarios that could unfold with Invest 95-L. The first is that if the core of this system remains over water or just scrapes along the coast of Honduras, then we may be looking at a fairly strong hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean by the end of this weekend. With this system forecast to be pulled northward by an approaching trough of low pressure, we could be looking at a scenario of a strong hurricane tracking into the Gulf of Mexico by next Wednesday or so.

The second scenario is that this system will make landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday night and Saturday and end up dissipating over the mountainous terrain of Central America and never reach the Gulf of Mexico.

http://ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/378224/

What to With Out For With New Weather System

As you saw in the weather report a few minutes ago, there's a tropical system in the eastern Caribbean which could have implications for Belize. Predictions for the movement of this system is likely to be west-northwest towards the western Caribbean. What does this mean for you? Today we found out more from our Chief Met Officer.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist
"There is a area of disturb weather near the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curassow in the south eastern Caribbean and presently it's about disorganize, but as it heads westwards and reaches just to the south of Jamaica conditions become more favorable for this system to develop. Probability is very high once it reaches like I said southern Jamaica conditions there will be almost perfect for it to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24-36 hours. Its moving towards the west about 15 miles per hour and computer models are suggesting that this system could be east of us in about 96 hours which will take it around Sunday morning if it continues on its present track. We should pay attention to this weather system because some of the forecast models are indication a wide variety of scenarios that are likely to develop. One forecast model is suggesting that it could go thru the Yucatan channel and the other forecast to the next extreme pushes this system thru Nicaragua and Honduras which would weaken it and it would die over the mountains there, however as a forecaster the most likely scenario is just clipping the north eastern tip of Honduras and then heading into the gulf of Honduras and that could spell trouble for us."

The Belize Meteorological Service says they will be keeping a close eye on the system and will be updating the public with current information.

Channel 7

Eeek. Not easy to relax these next few days.

So another GREAT voice for all thing tropical storm related can be found at:

http://www.palmharborforecastcenter.com/

Gentleman who runs the blog is retired USCG Meterorologist/Forecaster... He knows his stuff... used to have a blog on Wunderground until recently (was banned for some reason... Jeff Masters is great but boy do the comments on his blog get stupid.)

So just wanted to toss this into the ring so folks can add it to the list...

And yeah, boy, not to wish ill on Honduras, but let's hope this thing goes S. and get disrupted... I ya.

Thanks for the new link SF Jeff.

From Jeff Masters:
The future of 95L depends critically upon the storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If 95L misses making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Monday, as predicted by last night's 00Z (8pm EDT) run of the GFDL model. However, if 95L spends significant time over Honduras, as predicted by the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model, the storm will likely stay below hurricane strength. 95L is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to slow and turn more to the north. 95L will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If the center of 95L spends significant time over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew. If the center remains mostly over land, 95L will still generate extremely heavy rains over Central America, but remain below hurricane strength. By late next week, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may lift out, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force 95L westwards across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Alternatively, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may amplify, drawing 95L northwards across Western Cuba and into Florida. The uncertainties in the long-range fate of 95L are high, and depend strongly on slight variations in its track that determine how much time the storm spends over land.

AT THIS POINT predicted cat 1 at landing

NEMO Public Advisory TD 15

Tropical Storm Matthew forms over the South Central Caribbean Sea. Watches and warnings issued for portions of Central America. The center of Tropical Depression 15 is located near latitude 13.9 North, Longitude 76.2 West. The depression is moving toward the West near 15 MPH and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 MPH with higher gusts with strengthening to occur. The Depression could become a Tropical Storm later tonight or Friday.


The public is being advised to be aware of the increased likelihood of further deteriorating weather conditions as Tropical Depression 15 nears our area over the weekend

NEMO advises people traveling to the Cayes and those along the coast to pay particular attention to sea conditions. The public is further advised to listen to their local radio and television stations for further advisories from the NEMO and the National Met Service.


NEMO is on high alert as it continues to monitor Tropical Depression 15. Please contact your NEMO District Coordinator for local information.

Thanks Marty. Looks like a real soaker no matter what. We need to check the buoy and station on Swan Island. I try later to contact by radio to an old friend of mine. What happends there tells the tale of how certain we'll be hit and how hard. Me bones tell me to worry about this one.

There is a link to the buoy on our site: http://www.sanpedroweather.com

This is a comment that Ray Lightbown of Crown Weather pointed out and the part that continues to have me preparing for a storm:

"The latest National Hurricane Center forecast from 5 am Eastern Time this morning is based on a compromise between the two model extremes and it is forecasting a very slow track northward across the Yucatan Peninsula. They emphasize, however, that is a low confidence track forecast and that significant changes in the forecast track may be needed with either the 11 am or 5 pm advisory time."

At 6:00am Tropical Storm Matthew was centered near lat 14.3 n long 80.7 w, or about 275 miles east southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border. It packed winds of 50 mph with higher gusts and was moving to the west at 16 mph. -Matthew is heading generally towards Belize and is expected to strengthen.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

Tropical Storm Matthew’s Eye trained on Belize

Eight days ago, a tropical storm blew across northern Belize. Except for the heavy rains and winds, there were minor damages and Karl moved on to Mexico where it did cause loss of life and significant damages. It’s an active season and tonight a weather system in the Caribbean has now become Tropical Storm Mathew and the projections are that the storm is heading directly our way. Indications are that heavy rains can be expected this weekend, starting on Saturday and the storm is expected to hit on Sunday morning. Both NEMO and CEMO have sprung into action and as a first step, school children are being required to stay home on Friday. The National Meteorological Service advises to be prepared. News Five’s Delahnie Bain reports.

Delahnie Bain, Reporting

The National Met Service has had closely monitoring a weather system in the Caribbean for the past few days. The system strengthened and this morning it became Tropical Depression number fifteen.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist

“An active area of disturbed weather over the south central Caribbean at eleven o’clock this morning developed into Tropical Depression Number Fifteen. At that time the system was located a hundred and eighty miles east-southeast of Belize City and was moving towards the west at fifteen miles per hour. The maximum sustained winds in that system was thirty-five miles per hour.”

When we spoke to chief meteorologist, Dennis Gonguez, he told us the bad weather is heading our way.

Dennis Gonguez

“Well, the forecast track takes the tropical depression through northeastern Honduras and eventually into the Gulf of Honduras. However, conditions are favorable for the system to intensify into a tropical storm before skirting the northeast coast of Honduras. After that it enters the warm Gulf of Honduras waters and potentials are there for it to develop into a hurricane before impacting us on Sunday morning.”

By three o’clock this afternoon, Tropical Depression fifteen strengthened to become into Tropical Storm Matthew and Gonguez says we can expect a wet weekend.

Dennis Gonguez

“The weather should start going downhill Saturday night as the system nears our area. So we should see some changes coming up this weekend, it could be a rough weekend for us.”

Delahnie Bain

“Any advice for the general public?”

Dennis Gonguez

“Yes, we need to remain alert and pay close attention to this system. It could intensify and it could be on top of us over the weekend so we need to have our plans in place so that we are ready to move whenever the order is given to evacuate.”

Delahnie Bain for News Five.

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW CONTINUES WESTWARD TRACK

Tropical Storm Matthew continues on a westward track in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Packing maximum sustained winds of forty miles per hour, The Tropical Storm is making a bee-line for the north-eastern coast of Honduras. The storm should then emerge in the Gulf of Honduras near the Bay islands after midday on Saturday. Forecast models show Mathew heading straight for Belize and should reach our coastal waters by midday on Sunday. Forecaster Michael Gentle is on duty at the Belize Weather Bureau.

Michael Gentle; Forecaster

“It’s likely to be over our coastal waters by midday Sunday. At that time it could likely intensify to at least a minimal hurricane. The category one hurricane is characterized by winds seventy four to ninety miles per hour.”

But these are only projections. Given the right circumstances, Mathew can reach Belize’s shores a stronger storm.

Michael Gentle

“The water over the northwest Caribbean is fairly warm right now so they are looking at the possibility that that could be one of the scenarios. The other possibility is if it remains low over Honduras and Nicaragua for a longer period of time then it can weaken further and then the strengthening phase would be delayed a bit.”

And while Mathew is projected to cross through the northern most part of the country there is still a chance we could be spared.

Michael Gentle

“If it makes the turn later then it would likely cross our country before it starts to turn. If it makes the turn earlier then we would likely remain on the weaker side of the storm and we would get speared if the activity with it. But if it should continue and make the turn later then it is possible that we will get the full brunt of the storm.”

In the meantime, the forecast is for several inches of rain.

Michael Gentle

“The rainfall projections presently were projected for the first land fall that would be over north eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. They were predicting between six to ten inches of rainfall for that area. We can see similar amounts with a second landfall in our area and this rainfall sometimes gets enhanced by a higher elevation so in our case it is the Maya mountains in the south so we need to monitor the situation with that as we could still get some higher rainfall in these areas.”

Gentle says warnings should be raised as early as tomorrow.

Michael Gentle

“Our warning area starts as eighty degrees west. It would likely be in our area as early as by tomorrow morning and by that is when we go into our first phase. The next phase is when it crosses eighty degrees west when we go into phase two or the watch phase. The second phase you would usually say that you have thirty six hours warning time. With the third phase twenty four hours lead time for warning.”

Belizeans are advised to monitor the storm and keep updated on its progress.

Michael Gentle

“We need to stay in tuned to latest advisories as they come out. The advisories from the hurricane centre are issued every three hours and we usually relay that to the public and as soon as NEMO sets their process into action then we start getting advisories from NEMO also as to shelters and there is need for evacuation and things like that.”

Again viewers are asked to stay tuned to your radio and do not listen to rumours.

LOVE FM

Matthew has gotten slightly better organized over the past several
hours. The operational global models agree
that Matthew should continue west-northwestward across the southern
Yucatan Peninsula and/or Guatemala...with the UKMET showing the
center reaching the Bay of Campeche. On the other hand...the
GFDL..HWRF...and GFS ensemble mean forecast Matthew to reach the
East Coast of Yucatan and then turn northeastward. The differences
appear to Stem from the interaction of Matthew with a developing
monsoon low pressure area over Central America and the adjacent
waters...and to a lesser extent on the development of a deep-layer
trough over the central and eastern United States. For now...the
track forecast will compromise between these extremes and call for
a slow northward motion over the Yucatan Peninsula to keep
continuity from the previous forecast. However...this is a
low-confidence forecast...and significant changes may be required
later today.

The new forecast track has Matthew passing over more land than previously
and the forecast intensities have thus been lowered. It should be
noted that none of the intensity guidance shows Matthew becoming a
hurricane before reaching Honduras and Nicaragua...but this
possibility cannot be ruled out. The intensity of Matthew after 48
hr is highly dependent on which groups of models are correct about
the track. If the global models verify...the cyclone will likely
dissipate over eastern Mexico or Guatemala. If the GFDL/HWRF
verify...the system will be stronger than forecast over the
Caribbean waters.

here's my take:

its scheduled to come in at borderline cat one, not that huge. i swear by the navy folks. they have a great track record

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/15L.MATTHEW/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

notice the max winds 60 knots (70mph) , gusts to 75 knots at 26/06z at landfall. not that strong. if it behaves as expected...

We are preparing for the worst, and hoping for the best. From where we sit, only thing to do.

Seems prudent to expect rain, rain, rain and more rain.
Listen to the radio for NEMO updates - Reef Radio and LOVE FM.

Early morning visuals show a little better forecast in that it will impact Honduran coastline before affecting Bze. Navy track is showing landfall around Dangriga in 48+ hours out, with windspeed 60 knots gusting to 75 knots. However, the bad part is that it will penetrate inland then slow and change course moving N. so that the area feeling the effect will be much more widespread.

The cell is being broken up a bit and thus will be less intense than it would have been if the impact with the Honduran coast had not occurred prior to it moving on to Bze.

Caye Caulker began evacuation of non-residents this morning.

track is slippin south and west.... from navy.... also a major decrease in wind projections as it goes over Honduras.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. (downgrade)

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. MATTHEW HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL BUT
THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

...MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA IN A HURRY...

AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING MATTHEW THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME ANY STRONGER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO FAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. MATTHEW ONLY HAS 12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AND GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECAST MATTHEW TO BECOME
A HURRICANE.

weather advisories from San Pedro - Friday Morning 24 Sept.

Preliminary Phase announced. Red flag is flying.
NEMO EOC met this morning and has an action plan that will be implemented if it is needed.

If you are on the island, listen to Reef Radio or LOVE FM. All NEMO updates will be read there.

At this time the main risk to Belize is primarily heavy rainfall and floods.

***********

The forecasts for Matthew are all over the place. The system could affect us in one way or another well into next week. The main advice at this time is to be prepared, stay informed and plan to get wet.

***********

Sunday's previously announced power outage from 6 am - noon has been cancelled.

************

98.1 and 92.3

AT 500 PM EDT... MATTHEW HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
BRINGING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS HONDURAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.



From a friend...
The wind forecasts have dropped, as have the chances of a coastal strike in Belize, but there is still significant danger of flooding and mudslides from heavy rains. The hill country and mountains may be more at risk than the coast and cayes from this storm. Best of luck and be careful to everyone. Hope it turns out to be a non-event.

Marty, thank you for the updates....I am new to the whole Hurricane/Tropical storm thing....Is it true that these storms dissipate after hitting land fall? Or am I way off?

this one like most hurricanes will rain like hell when they hit the mainland.. this one is grinding into honduras and nicaragua right now.... that will slow it down as the rain pours out.

What do the colors mean in this particular picture, Marty?

shit load of rain

:-)

purple is the most intense part of the storm.green and blue the outlying bands

a occasional legend would be nice, but that's just me

surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft indicate that Matthew has not weakened much this
evening. Puerto limpera in eastern Honduras reported a 10-minute
wind of 38-40 knots at 2300. Weakening is expected overnight while the center remains over land...but little change in intensity is expected from 12 to 24 hours as the center is forecast to emerge into the Gulf of Honduras before moving into Belize. Beyond 24 hours...gradual weakening is forecast and the low-level center is expected to dissipate over Guatemala or eastern Mexico in 3 or 4 days.



A large area of cloud tops colder than -80c have recently developed
near and south of the center over portions of Honduras and
Nicaragua...likely producing extremely heavy rainfall in these
areas. The heavy rain threat will persist for several days...even
after Matthew weakens.

For the past few days global models have been consistently depicting
a tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward the
middle of next week. The most recent runs indicate that any
development there would likely not have continuity with Matthew...
but rather represent the formation of a new tropical cyclone.

power went off for a while, woke me up. back to sleep, then thunder woke me up. checking the radar picture I can see that the rainbands are arriving. back to sleep ......

Up for real - very windy, some rain but nothing torrential at all. Really beautiful. Low roar of wind and surf. Will take a walk in a little while and report if anything.
Glad to have a stiff cup of Gallon Jug dark roast!

As of a few minutes ago, Tropic said they are flying from SP to both International and Municipal.
NEMO is advising ALL boats to stay in harbour.
Expecting seas to get rougher as the day progresses.

Actually Municipal is closed. No flights to municpal, international only.

LOVE FM read an announcement from NEMO - all boats should stay in port, especially those around Caye Caulker and Ambergris Caye.

Windy. Rough water, but seas are not very high right now.

Matthew is expected to come ashore in Southern Belize this afternoon.

...MATTHEW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 87.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...145 KM ESE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY

MATTHEW
CONTINUES TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16
MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MATTHEW WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS BELIZE AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LOVE FM 8:30 report re-confirms Hazzy's post that Muni is closed - due to being under water - anticipated being closed all day.
Flights are operating between SP and Int'l although there could be delays. Flights south to Dangriga, Placencia and PG canceled.
IMHO it's a great day to stay home or to extend your vacation in Belize.

tracks are all over the place.

Where did you find this map Marty?

you create it here:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Map.aspx?location=NUXX0001

click some of the parameters in upper right area

Matthew cometh!

In an active hurricane season, in which Belize has already been struck by two tropical storms, Alex in June (which made landfall just north of Belize City) and Karl just last week (brushing by the Corozal District), both of which later became hurricanes, the fifteenth named storm of the season could be heading our way this weekend.

Tropical Storm Matthew, formally upgraded from depression status at 3:00 this afternoon, formed from an area of disturbed weather in the south-central Caribbean near the Nicaragua/Honduras border, similar to Alex.

As of 9:00 this evening, according to the National Meteorological Service, Matthew was located 335 miles east of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, at 14.0° North latitude and 78.4° West longitude.

Maximum winds are currently estimated at 45 miles per hour with higher gusts, and the storm is moving west at 17 miles per hour, but according to the NMS, the storm is expected to strengthen and take a more west-northwesterly track toward the Belize area by Saturday, possibly reaching hurricane status by then. The current projected path takes the storm near the tip of Honduras by Saturday morning and along the Belize coast by Sunday.

Forecaster Derrick Rudon told Amandala this evening with regard to the four-flag hurricane preparation system and possible tropical storm watches and warnings: “We don’t have any watches and warnings posted yet…we should be at preliminary stage by tomorrow, once Matthew crosses 80° West.”

At press time a hurricane warning is in effect from Puerto Cabezas to Limon, Honduras, and a tropical storm warning is in effect from Limon to the Guatemala/Honduras border.

Showers are expected to increase tonight and tomorrow, Friday, across the country, and assuming Matthew keeps on its projected track, conditions are expected to deteriorate to hurricane level by Saturday.

According to Rudon, Matthew appears to be a regular-sized storm, neither too large nor too small. However, it is in an area of the Caribbean with warm waters conducive to development, meaning that it could rapidly strengthen and present major problems.

Rudon’s advice to Belizeans is - “Keep abreast of what is going on; stay tuned to your radio and television for updates from us, NEMO (the National Emergency Management Organization), watch the Weather Channel.”

The Ministry of Education has officially announced that classes for all schools have been canceled for tomorrow due to the impending storm. The University of Belize has also canceled classes for Saturday, September 25.

NEMO advised this evening that mariners should seek shelter and travel to the cayes is being discouraged due to rough sea conditions. Also, residents living in flood-prone areas are being asked to evacuate early.

NEMO expects to issue a tropical storm watch and declare preliminary phase by 6:00 a.m. Friday. Also at that time, designated shelters and evacuation pickup points will be announced.

Public officers are also being asked to stay on standby for deployment for emergency duties and park all government vehicles at the local Ministry of Works compound

Amandala

Cool, thanks!

NEMO’s Outlook For Storm

Tropical Storm Matthew is located three hundred and eleven miles away from Southern Belize and is expected to make landfall in Belize sometime on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected throughout the next three days. In a telephone interview with Seven News late this evening NEMO's National Coordinator, Noreen Fairweather gave us their latest advisory.

Noreen Fairweather, NEMO's National Coordinator
"This evening at 6 pm Tropical Storm Matthew was located near latitude 14.9 degrees north and longitude 84.4 degrees west and that's about 310 miles east southeast of Belize. The storm is currently moving towards the west. The speed has decreased a bit about 15 miles per hour, as you can recall a little earlier it was moving faster about 18 miles per hour. It is now approximately 15 miles per hour. In terms of the wind; winds remain near 50 miles per hour with higher gusts. We do expect that it will weaken during the next 48 hours as it moves over land. The system is expected to become a tropical depression on Saturday. It is anticipated that it will make landfall in Belize on Saturday afternoon or in the evening. We expect a significant amount of rainfall up to about 12 inches is expected thru Saturday, Sunday and Monday, with higher rains in the southern part of the country. So we are looking at significant amount of rain. So we are advising people in that flood prone to move early especially those that need to cross that they know are prone to flooding to move early and move into a safe area. we also have a lot of people in the rural community with livestock and so on in low lying areas, they need to start moving their livestock to higher ground. We have in past events where a lot of livestock trap in flooded areas so the farmers need to start moving their livestock to higher ground. We are advising persons travelling particularly in the south of the country not to travel in the southern cayes at this time. Base on the last advisory the storm has shifted a little bit south. So we are focus in terms of choppy seas and more deteriorating conditions in terms of sea state, we are looking initially at the southern cayes near the Gulf of Honduras and Toledo, and Stann Creek areas, we are advising persons not to travel at the cayes at this time. We have report from the coast guard that seas out there are pretty choppy, raining heavily and so it's not pleasant so people need to be very careful and not travel in those areas at this time. We are still in a preliminary phase and a tropical storm watch is still in effect so we do continue to advise the public to remain vigilant and be prepared for heavy rains which can cause life threatening floods and we are looking at rain over a couple of days, Saturday, Sunday and Monday perhaps even later than that, so we are looking at days of rain. People need to be careful particular in areas along the road that you know are prone to flash floods. In areas like Blue Creek, Jordan you know we have the Kendall crossing, these areas are prone to flash flooding. At night we need to be careful in these areas where we can't see. That is a major concern. We ask the public to please listen to the official release and advisories given by NEMO and the national MET service."

The preliminary phase and a Tropical Storm watch are still in effect for the entire country. NEMO'S adviSES the public to remain vigilant and prepared for heavy rains which can cause life threatening floods. You can watch channel 7 for regular NEMO bulletins…

Channel 7

Matthew Still A Threat

Tropical Storm Matthew is moving inland over Honduras at this hour. The storm made landfall this afternoon along the coast of Nicaragua and at about 5 o'clock this evening it was located about 40 miles west-southwest of the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

The latest update at 6:00 pm shows it packing winds of 50 miles and hour and moving toward the west near 15 miles per hour. on the current forecast track Matthew will continue to move across Honduras tonight and Saturday and move into Belize and Guatemala Saturday night and Sunday.

Local predictions is that might be brushing the southern part of our country as a tropical storm. Belize remains under a tropical storm watch.

Today Seven News caught up with the forecaster who told us what Belizeans can expect over the weekend.

Frank Tench, Jr Forecaster
"Tropical Storm Matthew is moving over land near the Nicaragua Honduras border and at 3 o' clock this afternoon its latitude was 14.7 degrees north longitude 83.7 degrees west. This position is just under 400 miles east southeast of Belize City."

Monica Bodden
"The storm is moving at what direction?

Frank Tench, Jr Forecaster
"It's moving at a westward track at about 13 miles per hour and maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 45 miles per hour. With a path over land it means that the strength and the tropical storm force winds would be significantly weaker across the greater part of the country where in the extreme south of the country - where it is expected to cross very close to - those winds will still pack considerable punch and be able to produce some damage. Regardless of the strength of the winds and the weakened state the storm is in I believe all parts of the country will experience some winds to some extent because the radius of the tropical storm force winds cover an extremely wide area. At this last report the extent of the tropical force winds were like 175 miles from the center which means the storm is a very big storm and still contains quite a few deep confected cells capable of producing quite an amount rainfall which is still the forecast we expect when the storm comes to Belize late Saturday night."

Monica Bodden
"What are we looking at in terms of rainfall?"

Frank Tench, Jr Forecaster
"We are expecting rainfall in the region of 3-5 inches per day. In the south where the storm is expected to cross, those rainfall amounts could be considerably higher, and bear in mind this storm would still be in our area on Sunday, so the accumulated rainfall amounts could range anywhere between 6-12 with localized high amounts between 15-18 inches especially in the south where the storm would likely make its closest approach to Belize."

Monica Bodden
"So we can expect some flooding?"

Frank Tench, Jr Forecaster
"Flooding is a distinct possibility for the southern parts of the country and even other parts of the country including Belize City and Belize District because remember that the most intense part of a storm is east and the north east quadrant and with the center passing very near the southern parts of the country those quadrants would be moving across the central and northern parts of the country so we could still get quite a bit of rainfall and the risk of flooding is still there."

The Belize Weather Bureau will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Matthew over the weekend and advises the public to stay tuned to their local advisories.

Channel 7

Tropical Storm Matthew; will it have an impact on Belize?

Tropical Storm Matthew has been moving erratically. This afternoon it reduced in strength and intensity as it swirled in the Gulf of Honduras and was downgraded to a tropical depression. But at last check, Matthew had regained strength and was located in Honduras. Winds have increased to forty-nine miles per hour and it is expected to have greatest impact in southern Belize. Rains and flooding are expected over the weekend and the country remains on alert. We have full coverage of the depression, and News Five’s Isani Cayetano has the first report from the National Met Service when Matthew had been downgraded to a depression.

Isani Cayetano, Reporting

As Tropical Storm Matthew heads westward through Central America the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) and the met department are wasting no time monitoring its development and projected path. The threat level for the weather system remains high within the region, especially in Belize where torrential rains are expected when Matthew passes through the country over the weekend. According to Forecaster, Derrick Rudon the storm is moving moderately and should make its way across southern and central Belize by Saturday evening.

Derrick Rudon, Forecaster, National Met Service

“Tropical Storm Matthew was centered near latitude fourteen point six degrees north, longitude eighty-three point zero west or about thirty miles south, southeast of Gracias Adios on the Honduras/Nicaragua border. This position is also about four hundred miles southeast of Belize City and about four hundred miles east by south of Punta Gorda Town. Maximum sustained winds were fifty miles per hour with higher gusts and Matthew was moving to the west at sixteen miles per hour. Sorry at eighteen miles per hour.”

Despite its direction towards Belize residents in the city appeared rather nonchalant today with only a few businesses taking precautionary measures to secure their properties. Rudon says the bulk of Matthew’s impact will be felt in the south.

Derrick Rudon

“On the forecast track the tropical storm is expected to move over northern Honduras and [it has] weakened, like I said, to a tropical depression and then pass southern Belize sometime tomorrow.”

Isani Cayetano

“What can we expect from this weather system moving over southern Belize?”

Derrick Rudon

“Okay the main impact will be rainfall and flooding. Since it is expected to weaken to a depression then the maximum winds will be less than thirty-five miles per hour. So the main impact will be rainfall and the threat of flooding and we are expecting total, rainfall totals with this system of six to twelve inches with possibly higher amounts of up to eighteen inches over southern and central Belize over the next few days.”

Concerns have already been raised about the Kendal community along the banks of the Sittee River in South Stann Creek as it is a flood prone area. Residents in low-lying areas are required to keep abreast with information coming from the relevant authorities.

Derrick Rudon

“For this weekend then people should one: they should stay in tuned to the radio and the local media for any updates from the weather bureau or from NEMO. [Uhm] maybe down south they will open shelters [but] I’m not too sure of that. NEMO will make that decision however as we speak there is a tropical storm watch for the coast of Belize, for the entire coast. Last night it was a hurricane watch but this morning they downgraded it to a tropical storm watch. So that is saying that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next thirty six hours.”

Channel Five will be bringing you regular weather updates throughout the course of the weekend. Isani Cayetano for News Five.

IT IS WINDY - VERY VERY VERY WINDY

Not much going on here down in Placencia. The occasional squall has come through with max winds of about 35mph. A steady rain just started up but nothing major. There was a fair amount of rain last night but when we arrived with the boats around 6pm the winds were almost dead calm. We only ran into 2 squalls on the way down here, most of the way down was nice and sunny.

San Pedro Status

Wind : Easterly 35 MPH Gusts of 40 MPH
Rain : Intermittent 0.7 inches
Sea : Rough
Barometer : 1007.6mb Rising
Temperature: 86.2 F

Information courtesy of Syme Family

usa natl weather service 11am edt:

THE INNER CORE OF MATTHEW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE AREA OF STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE.

WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE LARGEST THREAT FROM MATTHEW IS HEAVY
RAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES DUE
TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

from Diane, RE: phones, 1045am
In case you are trying to reach somebody in our area, please note that
the fix-cels seem to be out but "regular" cellular phones are working.

from Lan Sluder, belizefirst.com, a couple hours ago

LOVE-FM has been doing an excellent job reporting on Tropical Storm
Matthew. If you can't get it over the air, you can listen online at
http://www.lovefm.com/listen_live.php

A few recent reports from LOVE-FM and others:

* TS Matthew is now over the Gulf of Honduras and expected to make
landfall in southern Toledo later today, with only tropical
storm-force winds. La Ceiba, Honduras (on the coast) had a little
rain but it's now a sunny day.

* From Belize City south Belize is under a tropical storm warning;
from Belize City north there's a tropical storm watch.

* A good deal of rain last night over Southern Belize with more
expected today as the TS moves inland.

* However, buses are still running in Southern Belize and Kendal
Bridge is still open (as of this morning), but water is rising.

* Rice farmers in Toledo are concerned that remaining acreage of
unharvested rice could be damaged if there are winds of 50 mph or
higher. Fortunately, some of the rice already has been harvested,
especially on larger farms with mechanical harvesting equipment.
Cattle ranchers in Toledo have been advised to move their animals to
higher ground. Banana plantations in Stann Creek are subject to wind
damage.

* Not much rain yet in San Pedro or Caye Caulker, and power is still
on, as it is in most of the country. However, it is requested that
boats do not go out today, due to potentially rough water, and this
includes the water taxis.

* NEMO is opening several shelters in Stann Creek District for
families in low-lying areas of Hopkins (Hopkins Road is said to
already have 1 foot of water), Gales Point, Independence, Dangriga and
elsewhere.

* Reportedly Maya Island is still flying as of now, but Tropic is not
flying, at least not from/to Placencia and elsewhere in the south.
The Hokey Pokey is planning to discontinue ferry service across the
Placencia Lagoon shortly, but buses are being put on for transport
between Independence and Placencia Village.

* Iguana Creek Bridge is closed. The Mopan River is rising fast, but
the Macal River is not yet rising.

* In Belize City, crews are working on the Bel-Can Bridge now, and it
is recommended that drivers use the Bel-China and Swing Bridge, not
the Bel-Can Bridge, for the next 3 hours.

* The Kendal Bridge is still open, but water is less than 4 feet from
the deck of the bridge, and water is rising at the rate of about 8 to
10 inches an hour, so if that continues the bridge will not be
passable by early afternoon.

Calming down now. Pretty good winds early this morning and very high and rough seas. Several sunken boats from those that didn't move them last night and lots of damaged docks with odd waves coming up to most houses in Boca del Rio area.

Thanks Phil.

Any other reports from other parts of town or or other waterfront areas?

Up here in Mata Grande we have high water, waves breaking through the piers - have heard of some dock damage north and south of us, but nothing right where we are. Tried to take a long walk this AM to see how things were doing but could not get down the beach due to high water.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER BELIZE...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BELIZE

THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
MATTHEW FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND MATTHEW
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS COULD STILL OCCUR TODAY
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EVEN AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES.

The high tide is going down and the wind is back to normal. Our boat just left to San Pedro for arrivals and departures. Continental and Tropic Air are flying. Our guests had fun on the beach this morning, taking pictures and shooting videos. We lost a few boards from our dock but we are putting them back as we speak. The sun is now shining over here and Sandra is going to post some pictures on our Facebook page and our blog .

Jan van Noord
________________________
Portofino Restaurant & Beach Resort
North Ambergris Caye
New Website: www.portofino.bz

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=26105&id=100000962657611&l=23c092530d

I cant make a nice button like Portofino, but here are my pics from the "south side"...

http://romantictravelbelize.com/romantic-travel-belize-news/ for my blog pics too

Coastal Xpress is only doing special runs till 5pm, then they will resume the schedule.
Tropic Air is only flying from Belize International and did not miss a flight today.
Continental is flying as usual.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 201

MATTHEW HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN YET...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE SOON AND MATTHEW IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MEANDERING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF MATTHEW...
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Any updates on southern Belize from anyone?

Nice, sunny and calm all afternoon. Sandflies are out now though. Some river flooding but no major damage. Winds were only up around 40 with the gusts this morning.

I thought it would be worse...good news, thanks

Waves of Tropical Storm Matthew Pound San Pedro

Effects of Tropical Storm Matthew felt in San Pedro!!

Boat owners battle waves to anchor vessel

From Diane....

I walked a 1.5 mile stretch of beach this morning - all of Mata Grande and south past Las Terrazzas.
Beach erosion in most areas.
Some stretches are piled high with seagrass (as much as 3 feet deep), others swept clean. In some areas waterlines are significantly back (as much as 20 feet) from where they were before. It's hard to figure what the currents were doing.
Some pier damage - mostly from water pushing up under them, pulling some sections and/or making them crooked. I understand that in town there were some piers completely destroyed.
It seems that areas south of us did not fare as well as our middle island.

Shoreline protection advice .............. if you have a lot of seagrass on your beach, best to LEAVE IT THERE for now. It is your best potential for protection in the week ahead. There is a lot more weather coming, although nobody knows precisely what it will be. If you have a crew cleaning up, maybe have them remove the plastic and bag it, but the piles of sea grass at the water's edge are probably your best friend right now.
The only thing that the weather folks can say for sure is that there will be a persistent large low pressure area over us. Low pressure = high water levels. HIgh water = most likely bad for beaches especially after Matthew.

photos of Caye Caulker after Matthew:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/caye-caulker-current-storm-conditions/

Matt be a real soaker..which is good.

The southern part of Belize was affected adversely by the heavy rains from Matthew. The message from southern Belize is that if you want to help the residents there (and they do need it), please buy Toledo District Rice.

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FIZZLES AND BELIZEANS HEAVE A COLLECTIVE SIGH OF RELIEF

When we last came to you on Friday evening, Belizeans from north to south were finalizing preparations for the arrival of Tropical Storm Matthew. The thirteenth named storm of the season was expected to make landfall in southern Belize on Saturday evening. However, when it emerged from the Honduras coast, the system had lost all of its energy and instead rolled in as an uneventful tropical depression. In the area of the Bliss Centre, the sea and Southern Foreshore at one point appeared to have merged. On the opposite side of the City, the runway at the Municipal Airstrip all but disappeared under the high surf. Low-lying places like Jane Usher Boulevard area and Yarborough were also inundated on Saturday. In the south where the storm was expected to make landfall, everyone was on high alert for the storm that never came. Officials kept a close watch on the temporary crossing at Kendall. The Sittee River kept fluctuating from time to time and the Ministry of Works kept a close eye on the situation in case there was the need to close the low-lying wooden bridge to vehicular traffic. But the bridge remained open and traffic flowed without interruption. Further south, on the Southern Highway, streams and rivers overflowed their banks and residents along the banks of these waterways made the necessary preparations to move if the need arose. At the Trio Junction water gathered on both sides of the highway but at no point did it threaten to cross the road. Villages is rural Toledo were also affected by flood waters, including the Blue Creek Community which was separated by the flooded river for hours. When the all-clear was given late on Saturday, those who had packed up and were preparing to go to shelters started to reverse their plans even as officials advised them to be vigilant for flood waters. On Sunday, our Toledo Bureau Chief Paul Mahung spoke with the chairman of the Toledo Grain Growers Association Dennis Usher who had done some initial damage assessment and found that things were not as bad as anticipated.The complete damage assessment caused by the passage of Tropical Depression Matthew is yet to be compiled by the National Emergency Management Organization. And while that is another near miss from a tropical system, viewers are reminded that the hurricane season continues through to November thirtieth, so we must all remain alert and keep our disaster plans updated.

LOVE FM

Matthew Mauls Mexico

Last night we were counting our blessings after Matthew swooshed over Belize without causing any major damage, loss of property, or loss of life. Sadly, tonight in Southern Mexico, they cannot do the same. Hundreds are fared dead after mudslides caused by Tropical Depression's Matthew's rains.

The greatest damage is concentrated in the Oaxaca region where at least one hundred are missing with 4 confirmed dead. Elsewhere in the state, at least four rivers broke their banks, causing widespread flooding and forcing residents to flee their homes.

Tropical Storm Matthew, had already left a dozen people dead in El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico's state of Chiapas.

LOVE FM

VIdeo of the waves from MAtthew in Belize City

It made me laugh when I saw the children using the overflowing water holes for a splash pool.....

Tropical Storm Matthew’s Impact on Belize

Tropical Storm Matthew weakened to a tropical depression on Saturday, September 25, as it brought heavy rain to Belize and Honduras. With the storm entering land on southern Belize with sustained winds measuring at 35mph and higher gusts, island residents did not expect much tropical storm conditions on Ambergris Caye.

On Saturday morning there were a few storm showers and high winds, but what was most impressive was the storms surge that created waves up to five feet high and double that outside the reef.

Some boat owners who did not move their vessels from the front part of the island were caught off guard by the high waves that threatened to damage their boats. There was a lot of beach erosion and damage to piers.

There were no damages to structures on land but low-lying neighborhoods like San Pedrito, Boca del Rio, San Mateo and immediately across the bridge leading northward were affected by high tide, making their passage in and out of their homes impassable. Three classrooms at the San Pedro High School were opened as shelters to accommodate individuals whose homes had been inundated.

“We got about nine inches over the entire event,” commented Dennis Gonguez Chief Meteorological Officer. “We got about nine inches down south in Punta Gorda Town, a bit over eight inches at Savannah Forest Station and about seven point nine inches in the Mountain Pine Ridge at Barton Creek; so most of the rainfall as expected was concentrated in the south.”

It has been remarkably active hurricane season with a 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six tropical storms, and five hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean has already generated another tropical storm Nicole moving its way through Florida.

More Pictures on Daily Blog

Ambergris Today