http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents is heading approximately towards us.

Give you chills just thinking about it! Let's hope the models are correct and it will head away from us before it becomes too energetic.

All eyes to the sky's again folks. Paula is already in the 'hood so we will have some effect no matter what path she chooses.

The 2 am computer models look like a cats cradle! The weather guys are not up and predicting yet - probably too confusing.

Hopefully the sun will hold until after Richard and Diana's wedding today.
Congratulations to the happy couple !!

Today's Tropical Weather Outlook

98L - Sunday 10 Oct - mid-day from Weather Underground

Forecast for 98L

98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday and Monday, and to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Intermittent heavy rains will also affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Western Cuba over the next three days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status at any time, and NHC is calling for a 60% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across Cuba. None of computer models available as of 1pm EDT developed 98L into a tropical depression. I don't believe 98L will become a depression today, but expect that it will be one by Tuesday.

Plan on fulling cisterns and well-watered plants.

******************************

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:27 PM GMT on October 11, 2010s.

Forecast for 98L
The west-northwest to northwest movement of 98L at 10 mph should take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's odds of development. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, above 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. NHC is calling for a 60% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning; I'd put these odds higher, at 70%. The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across western Cuba and the Florida Keys by Thursday, as predicted by the latest 8pm EDT (0Z) run of the GFDL model. Two other models, the GFS and HWRF models, keep the storm confined to the Western Caribbean for the rest of the week, though. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L into a tropical depression. In any case, Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands can expect heavy rain from 98L over the next three days. Heavy rains from 98L will begin to affect Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and perhaps northern Guatemala and the western half of Cuba as well. These rains may potentially last many days and cause significant flooding problems.

I'm gona wash out my cistern and gutters today and plan on free water delivery tomorrow enough to fill it up again.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Sorta seems like boat-pulling weather again - ?

Now officially Paula, with TS & Hurricane warnings all along the coast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl

satellite imagery...surface observations and data from an Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure
area near the coast of Honduras has become a tropical storm...and
an intensifying one at that. In the last couple of hours the
aircraft found a central pressure of 1000 mb and flight-level and
SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 50 kt...and this
could be a bit conservative. The intensity forecast is above the
SHIPS and lgem guidance given the current intensity trends...and
Paula could reach hurricane status in the next 24 hours. Beyond
that time...Paula may encounter some stronger winds aloft on the
southern edge of the westerlies. The intensity guidance shows
a broad peak from 36 to 72 hours and then slow weakening at days 4
and 5. The official forecast follows this trend and is closest to
the lgem at days 3 through 5.

The initial motion estimate is 315/8 based on aircraft fixes and
earlier estimates of the location of the developing center. Paula
is currently moving around the southwestern side of a subtropical
ridge that extends across the northern Caribbean. Over the next
couple of days...the western edge of the ridge weakens as a broad
deep-layer trough moves east across the southeastern United States.
This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest and
north within 48 hours. After that time...most of the guidance
suggests that the trough will move east and leave the cyclone
behind in an area of weak steering currents over the northwestern
Caribbean. The official forecast shows Paula drifting slowly
eastward at days 3 and 4...with a slow southward motion at day 5.
This forecast is based on a blend of the GFS...UKMET...and
ECMWF...but confidence is quite low in the details of the track
forecast at this time range.

Based on the forecast...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 11/2100z 16.0n 84.0w 50 kt
12hr VT 12/0600z 16.8n 84.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 12/1800z 18.3n 86.2w 65 kt
36hr VT 13/0600z 19.6n 86.6w 70 kt
48hr VT 13/1800z 20.0n 86.4w 70 kt
72hr VT 14/1800z 20.0n 85.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 15/1800z 20.0n 85.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 16/1800z 19.5n 85.0w 65 kt


$$
forecaster Brennan

TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING
COZUMEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

Tropical Storm Paula forming

Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:30 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Data from the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and satellite imagery reveal that the strong tropical disturbance centered near the coast of Honduras just west of the border with Nicaragua is now Tropical Storm Paula. Paula is the 16th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1001 mb and top surface winds of 45 mph in their 2:11pm EDT center fix. Satellite imagery shows a well-organized system with a modest but increasing amount of intense thunderstorm activity, and some respectable low-level spiral bands. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that Paula has been able to substantially moisten the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean over the past day, and dry air will be less of an impediment to development than it was yesterday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. Puerto Lempira, Honduras reported sustained winds of 35 mph at 12pm CST this afternoon, with 3.31" of rain from the storm thus far.

Forecast for Paula

Proximity to land is hampering Paula's ability to intensify some, and the storm's northwest movement of 10 mph will take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's ability to intensify. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, for the remainder of the week. The computer models predict Paula will continue on a northwest motion then turn more north-northwest on Wednesday, which would take the storm close to landfall on the coast of Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Paula may be approaching Category 2 hurricane status, due to the moderate wind shear, SSTs of 29°C, and a sufficiently moist atmosphere.

On Wednesday, there is considerable doubt about the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days, as predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. It is also possible that Paula will push far enough inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that the storm will dissipate, as predicted by the NOGAPS model. Finally, if Paula grows strong quickly, and pushes far enough north, it could get caught up a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday, then move into the Bahama Islands by Friday or Saturday. It is too early to say which of these scenarios is the most likely, as the storm is just forming and the models do not have a good handle on it yet. Regardless, northern Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will receive dangerous flooding rains from Paula today through Wednesday.

TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
800 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...PAULA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 84.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

Probably pull boats tomorrow AM - better safe than sorry. Water could be high.

Anyone has any information about the closure of schools?

Ok, got the answer to my question from Love FM, no classes tomorrow for the entire country.

NOAA


Navy

Beautiful still morning here. Hard to believe there's a hurricane just 100 miles off shore.

HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...AND THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.


AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS BEGINNING
TO LEAN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 325/9. LITTLE
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. PAULA IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS NOTED
IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.

Navy:

The Island Academy *is* open (Tuesday). Up-to-date status messages on the front page of the http://theislandacademy.com web site

Storm warning for Belize discontinued.

Closest point of approach will be around 5 pm today, if we get any weather we'll feel it sooner than that.

Will report further details and info after the 7 am NEMO meeting.

The Island Academy has changed its decision and school is now closed today.

From Diane....

There has been a bit of conflicting information broadcast, so for the record here is what NEMO of San Pedro informed us in a 7am meeting today.

Belize did not lift the Tropical Storm Watch for our area last night despite reports to the contrary by NHC.
The watch IS expected to be officially lifted this morning.

Last night the decision was made to cancel classes for San Pedro Schools today. That decision remains in force for today, Tuesday.

Paula is not a large storm, and if it follows the current predicted track Ambergris Caye will remain well outside the range of tropical force winds.
Storm surge is not expected today or tonight, and for today the seas are expected to remain relatively calm.

The future track of Paula is uncertain.
Advice is to watch the usual weather sites, listen for official updates.

Was the decision from last night, to close all schools in Belize today, from the department of education not mandatory?

Or does the Law of Belize and the department of education not implement the Island Academy?

NEMO declared the official ALL CLEAR at noon today.

‘ALL CLEAR’ DECLARED

At 12:00 midday the center of Hurricane Paula was located near 18.8 North latitude, 85.8 West Longitude. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 miles per hour. Paula is moving to North North West away from Belize at 10 miles per hour.

NEMO with effect from 12:00 midday declared the “All Clear” for the entire country of Belize

NEMO remains on alert and continues to monitor Paula as she moves away from Belize.

http://www.nemo.org.bz/

Looking bad for our neighbours to the north. Thoughts and prayers heading their way ahead of the storm.

Paula intensifies to Category 2

Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2010

Hurricane Paula put on a respectable burst of intensification early this afternoon, popping an eye and reaching Category 2 strength. Last night and early this morning, Paula set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength, performing the feat in just 12 hours. At 1pm this afternoon, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 104 mph with their SFMR instrument in Paula's northeast eyewall. On the second pass through the eyewall at 2pm, the SFMR saw top winds of 85 mph, in Paula's northwest eyewall, and the pressure had dropped 1 mb in one hour. The aircraft passed through the northeast eyewall again near 3pm EDT, and found weaker surface winds, just 83 mph, compared to the 104 mph seen at 1pm. The pressure remained the same as at 2pm, suggesting that Paula is done intensifying. Paula is a small hurricane, with hurricane force winds that extend out just 10 miles from the center. The eye is very tight, with a diameter of 11 miles. The Hurricane Hunters noted something in their comments I've never seen before--the eye was more square than circular.


Figure 1. Radar image at 3pm EDT 10/12/10 from Cancun, Mexico, showing rain from an outer spiral band over Cozumel Island, and the core of Paula to the south-southeast of the island. Image credit: CONAGUA Mexico.

Satellite imagery has been showing the intermittent appearance of an eye this afternoon, and Paula has been growing more organized, with improving low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support further development, but moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the south, is slowing Paula's intensification.


Figure 2. Rain rate (inches per hour) as measured by the TRMM satellite at 12:29 pm EDT 10/12/10. Peak rain rates of 0.8 inches/hr (yellow colors) were occurring in a spiral band on Paula's west side. Lower rain rates of 0.6 inches/hr (green colors) were seen in the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Paula
Radar from Cancun shows that an outer spiral band moved over Cozumel between 2 - 3pm EDT, bringing a brief heavy rain squall to the island. This band will move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula, bringing a brief heavy rain squall to Cancun late this afternoon. Radar and satellite imagery indicate about a six-hour break after passage of this spiral band before the next major band hits, late tonight. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph extend out from Paula's center about 70 miles to the north. Paula's current north-northwest motion of 10 mph means that tropical storm force winds should reach the coast of Mexico near Cozumel between 8pm - 2am local time tonight. A good way to visualize this is to use our wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on, and click on the "forecast" and "wind radius" boxes. Hurricane force winds extend out just ten miles from the center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds. The 1:45pm EDT wind probability product from NHC gives a 99% chance that Cozumel will receive tropical storm force winds, and a 60% chance of getting hurricane force winds of 74+ mph. In addition to high winds, heavy rain will be a major threat. If Paula stalls as expected and wanders in the region for many days, rainfall forecasts from the HWRF and GFDL models suggest that Paula will be capable of dumping more than a foot of rain in isolated regions over the next five days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to the high range, 25 - 40 knots, tonight through the end of the week. This high shear, combined with the dry atmosphere to the north of Paula, should limit Paula's chances of becoming a major hurricane, since the hurricane is small and vulnerable to high wind shear. NHC is giving Paula a 27% chance of becoming a major hurricane. Shear, dry air, and interaction with the land area of western Cuba and/or the Yucatan Peninsula are likely to weaken the storm below hurricane strength later this week, as suggested by most of the intensity forecast models.

The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) still show a variety of solutions for the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse on Wednesday, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days. It is also possible that Paula could get caught up in a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday night, then move into the Bahama Islands on Friday. NHC is making the reasonable forecast of sticking with what the majority of models are saying by predicting that Paula will stall out near the western tip of Cuba. However, residents of South Florida, Central Cuba, and the Bahamas should be prepared for Paula to come their way as a strong tropical storm on Thursday and Friday.