Great Timing as usual, for Richard to go to Belize.

Because Channel 5 and Channel 7 don't produce any TV News on Saturday and Sunday till Monday evening, even the weather expert from hydromet.gov.bz can take a vacation.


Unbelievable, if there was no Internet and no LoveFM Radio, we would have no information the whole weekend till Monday night after the proposed landfall.

And the majority of the Belizean sitting every night on there TV... not knowing what going on.

LOVE FM IS AWESOME in a storm.

For the non-nautical guys out there a Nautical Mile (knots) is 1.15 Land Miles. 60-80 knots per hour = 69-92 MPH winds expected by Navy at the point where the eye hits land.

About timelines ...... I think this map is 6 hours ahead of us - meaning the predicted landfall is around midnight Sunday (or very early Monday). Further we would be feeling effects several hours ahead of landfall. So...... I'd be prepared to be prepared. For those of us whose main mode of transport is boat, that may mean being fully battened down by end of day Saturday because we'd probably be pulling boats out of the water by then.

Anyway - time to pay attention, but not yet time to take in the furniture.

Many thanks to Marty for staying on top of the info.

Storms that come at night are especially bothersome. Eek.

BTW - two days ago (unrelated to any storm issues) I noticed that Castillo's had some brilliant(10X's the power of a car headlight says the box) rechargeable portable spotlights - might be a good day to get one. Price was around $75 Belize.

NOAA Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

Report from Jeff Masters / Weather Underground as of 1:30 Belize Time today:


Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Monday morning. As the storm moves westwards on Friday, it will position itself beneath an upper-level high pressure system, which will aid the storm's upper-level outflow. With water temperatures a very warm 29°C and warm waters extending to great depth, Richard should be able to attain at least Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. NHC is currently giving Richard a 11% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 30%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will steadily weaken.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs, and don't help illuminate what the long-range fate of Richard might be. Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and will remain weak through Friday morning, resulting in a slow, erratic movement for Richard. Most of the models favor a southerly, then southwesterly path at 5mph or less over the next two days. This may bring the center of Richard very close to or over the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS models. These models then show Richard dissipating over Central America. A much different solution is offered by the ECMWF, HWRF and GFDL models, which foresee less of a southerly motion for Richard over the next two days, resulting in the storm missing the north coast of Honduras by one hundred miles or more. These models take Richard to the northwest across the tip of the Yucatan (GFDL and ECMWF models) or western tip of Cuba (HWRF model) on Sunday or Monday. The HWRF and GFDL models predict Richard will be a threat to the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. NHC takes the reasonable approach of predicting a path somewhere between these two extremes, with Richard crossing the Yucatan between Cozumel and the Belize/Mexico border. Residents of northern Honduras should anticipate the possibility that Richard will pass very close or strike Honduras on Saturday or Sunday. Very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches are possible over the the weekend in coastal Honduras beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 46%. Cozumel, Mexico is given a 42% chance, Key West a 6% chance, and Ft. Myers a 3% chance.

From 28storms.comFrom 28storms.com :The overall model consensus, as of this afternoon, would certainly suggest that land interaction with Central America is much more likely than Richard simply shooting the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan. If Richard moves too close to Honduras, then the odds of an upgrade to hurricane status lower significantly. A strong tropical storm landfall near Belize or the southern half of the Yucatan may be the most realistic scenario. Thereafter, a significantly weakened or remnant of Richard will be drawn northward into the central Gulf Coast by a mid-latitude trough. Keep in mind this is not an official forecast, and interests in the west Caribbean should follow guidance from the National Hurricane Center for life and death decision making. Their most recent forecast does intensify Richard into a hurricane.

Can we have the purple one please.

NOAA Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2010

...Richard nearly stationary with no change in strength...

summary of 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.0n 80.5w
about 230 mi...375 km SSE of Grand Cayman
about 190 mi...310 km ENE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on nic/Hon border
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...SSE or 160 degrees at 2 mph...3 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches

BELIZE NMS

RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER BELIZE; TROPICAL STORM RICHARD MEANDERING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS...
24hr Forecast: CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE SEA AND OVER SOUTHERN DISTRICTS.
Winds: NORTH 5-15 KNOTS
Sea State: CHOPPY
Outlook: (FRI NIGHT & SAT) CONTINUING GENERALLY FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING CLOUDY WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

Tropical Weather Outlook: -At 6:00pm Tropical Storm Richard was centered near 16.0N 80.5W or about 190 miles ENE of Cape Gracias A Dios on the on the Honduras Nicaragua border. Richard was moving to the SSE at 2 mph, and a gradual turn to the south, southwest and west is expected over the next 48 hours at a slow forward speed. Maximum sustained winds were 40 mph. Strengthening is forecast and Richard could become a hurricane over the weekend.





NAVY Projected Track for Richard

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR HAS
RELAXED A LITTLE BIT MORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0
AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
LAST RECON A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND A WEAK CYCLONE...MICROWAVE DATA
DOES NOT SHOW AN INNER CORE...AND FURTHERMORE...ASCAT DATA SHOW
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
GENEROUSLY AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK RICHARD ABOUT 12
UTC.0.

NOW THAT THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED AND MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE
AREA...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BE A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
ONCE OVER YUCATAN THE EFFECT OF LAND AND INCREASING SHEAR WOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING. MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR...ARE
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING RICHARD AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THIS IS PERHAPS BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CYCLONE
TO BE CLOSER TO LAND INSTEAD OF OVER THE OPEN NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA LIKE IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

RICHARD HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE IT IS
STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS STEERING
PATTERN IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE CURRENT TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS
OUT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL FORCE RICHARD ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT SEEMS THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A STRONGER RIDGE
THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT. NONE OF THE MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD AND ARE FOLLOWING THE WESTWARD TREND INITIATED BY THE
GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 16.0N 80.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.9N 80.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 81.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 84.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 17.5N 87.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 19.0N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/0600Z 21.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER AVILA