TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
...RICHARD MOVING WESTWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION STILL LOOKING A LITTLE DESSICATED. BANDING FEATURES
ARE MOST PROMINENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THOUGH BANDS OF
RAIN ARE NOW AFFECTING HONDURAS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE EARLIER RECON DATA.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF RICHARD
TO LAND...AND INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED. MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HONDURAS TO ALLOW
SOME STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...LGEM...AND
SHIPS MODELS. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE NEW
FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MODELS.
DISSIPATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER
RICHARD ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SMALL SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/7 KT. A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A PATH CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY
TOMORROW AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY. RICHARD SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
at 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Richard was
located near latitude 16.1 north...longitude 84.2 west. Richard is
moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr. This general motion
is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track...the center of Richard is expected to pass near or over the
northeastern coast of Honduras tonight...near or over the
Bay Islands of Honduras early Sunday...and could approach the
coasts of Belize and southeastern Mexico by late Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Richard is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Hazards affecting land
storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the northern coast of
Honduras and Belize.
..and 1 to 3 feet in the Bay Islands. Near the
coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
Rainfall...Richard is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over northern Honduras...the Bay Islands...and Belize
with maximum storm total amounts around 7 inches.
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...
especially in mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are possible over northeastern portions of Nicaragua.
Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to move over
northeastern Honduras within the warning area this evening.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area of
Honduras early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin along the coasts of Belize and southeastern Mexico on
Sunday...with hurricane conditions expected along the coast of
Belize late Sunday.