Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: November 24, 2015

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Belize NMS Forecast

3:00 AM in Belize, November 24, 2015

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

November 24, 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...From the western Atlantic Ocean...across Cuba...into the northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32n69w in the Atlantic the Atlantic Ocean coast of Cuba near 23n79w. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery within 400 nm to 500 nm to the west and northwest of the line that passes through 32n68w 29n70w 23n85w in the Gulf of Mexico. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 26n70w 22n75w and 21n84w in the northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. The front is stationary from 21n84w to 20n90w in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Convective the Atlantic Ocean...widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32n64w to 26n68w. In the Caribbean Sea...isolated moderate from 19n to 20n between 83w and 86w. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are within 180 nm to 240 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32n64w to 20n77w in Cuba.

...The rest of the Caribbean Sea...

Convective precipitation...isolated moderate from 16n in the Caribbean Sea to 22n in the Atlantic Ocean between 62w and 70w around the areas of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70w westward. This anticyclonic wind flow is part of the eastern extension of the ridge that runs from southern Mexico into Texas. A ridge is along 15n from 70w westward.

A middle level to upper level trough extends from a southeastern Caribbean Sea 12n65w cyclonic circulation center to 10n67w and 08n70w in Venezuela. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover Venezuela from 06n northward from 66w eastward.

Rainshowers are possible in the coastal plains of Venezuela from 08n northward from 63w eastward.

Upper level northwesterly wind flow covers the northeastern corner of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 09n74w in 08n78w in eastern Panama...beyond 07n/08n along 81w in Panama...into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation...rainshowers are possible from 10n southward from 78w Panama and in its coastal waters.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 24/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American temperature and precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01 knhc...are 0.76 in Havana Cuba...and 0.30 in Bermuda.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic Basin Remains Quiet

11/23/2015 5:02:12 PM

There are no tropical features across the Atlantic worth monitoring at this time. A cold front will push through the western Caribbean early this week and bring an increase in thunderstorm activity. Aside from this, the Caribbean and Atlantic will remain quiet through the middle of the week.

Models have been consistent in developing an area of low pressure near or north of Bermuda toward the end of the week. This will be watched over the coming days although chances are low that this develops any tropical characteristics.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

The Development Of Tropical Storm Larry Near Bermuda Next Week Remains A Possibility
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

November 20, 2015

The latest afternoon model guidance continues to point to the possibility that we may see the formation of Tropical Storm Larry in the Atlantic somewhere near Bermuda by the middle to last part of next week and that this tropical storm could track westward for a couple of days before it gets pulled northeastward.

Turning to the afternoon model guidance:

The GFS model guidance forecasts that an area of low pressure will form at the tail end of a frontal boundary to the south of Bermuda near 29 North Latitude and 60 West Longitude on Wednesday. From there, the GFS model guidance forecasts this system will become a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward next Thursday and next Friday passing just north of Bermuda by next Friday.

The Canadian model guidance forecasts that a tropical system may form at the tail end of a frontal boundary to the southeast of Bermuda near 26 North Latitude and 58 West Longitude by Wednesday. From there, the Canadian model guidance forecasts this system to strengthen into a tropical storm and track very near, if not right over Bermuda by next Friday. After that, the Canadian model guidance forecasts this tropical storm to track as far west as 30 North Latitude and 68 West Longitude by next Saturday before a frontal system tracking off of the US East Coast pulls it northeastward into the open Atlantic at the very end of the month.

The latest afternoon forecast of the European model guidance forecasts that an area of low pressure will form to the southeast of Bermuda on Wednesday and forecasts it to track to near Bermuda by Thursday of next week. From there, the European model guidance seems to want to split the energy of this system pulling part of it to the northeast while another part of it tracks westward as some sort of trough of low pressure making it to the Bahamas by Monday, November 30th. This is a big change from last night’s European model guidance which forecasted a tropical storm to track fairly close to the US Southeast Coast by the weekend of November 28th and 29th.

Here Are My Thoughts: The reason why we may see tropical development in the Atlantic near Bermuda is because we will see a frontal boundary push off of the US East Coast by early next week and lift northeastward. As it does so, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop at the tail end of this front near 28 North Latitude and 60 West Longitude around Wednesday. As this low pressure system develops, an area of high pressure is forecast to build to the north of this system and extend from the northeastern United States eastward to the Canadian Maritimes during the last part of next week. This will set up a situation that could cause this system to be not only in an environment that is favorable for development into a tropical system and strengthening into a tropical storm, but it also could cause this system to track westward to near Bermuda around Friday of next week.

This means that tropical storm conditions are a possibility on the island of Bermuda around next Friday.

Beyond next Friday, it remains to be seen how far westward this system tracks before a frontal boundary tracking into the eastern United States picks up this system and sends it northeastward. I think that the weather pattern is progressive enough that last night’s European model guidance seems unrealistic and I think that any low pressure system/tropical system will get pulled northward and northeastward fairly quickly, but I do think that it may make it as far west as 67 or 68 West Longitude before it is pulled out into the open Atlantic.

This possible tropical system will be monitored closely over the next several days and I will keep you updated on the latest.

Eastern Pacific's Invest 91E A Threat to Mexico
Jeff Masters

5:22 PM GMT on November 23, 2015

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 91E) is approaching tropical depression status in the record-warm Pacific waters off the south coast of Mexico, about 425 miles south of Acapulco. Satellite images on Monday morning showed that 91E had a large and expanding area of heavy thunderstorms with a pronounced rotation. The 7 am EST Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 91E would be over record-warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F) and under light wind shear around 10 knots through Friday, which should allow the storm to develop into Tropical Storm Sandra by Wednesday. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 90%. The HWRF and GFDL intensity models have consistently shown the potential for this storm to become a hurricane by late in the week. Steering currents favor a path to the west or west-northwest parallel to the coast and far enough offshore to prevent heavy rains in Mexico through Thursday. On Friday, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 91E will turn the storm to the north and northeast, and 91E will likely make landfall in Mexico this weekend, passing near the tip of the Baja Peninsula. Those of you planning to spend Thanksgiving weekend in the Cabo San Lucas area you should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm affecting your weather.

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91E.

If Sandra does form this week, it will join last week's Tropical Storm Rick as one of the latest-forming tropical storms in the history of the Eastern Pacific. Since accurate records began in 1949 (with higher-quality satellite records beginning in 1971), the Eastern Pacific has seen only five tropical storms form after November 18: December 5, 1983 (Winnie), November 27, 1971 (Sharon), November 27, 1951 (Unnamed), November 20, 2011 (Kenneth), and November 19, 2015 (Rick). None of these storms hit land. If 91E becomes a tropical storm and hits land, it will be the latest landfalling Eastern Pacific storm on record. This year has also beaten the onset year of the 1997-98 El Niño in terms of the span from the earliest to latest tropical cyclone in the Northeast Pacific. The season’s first storm of 2015, Andres, formed on May 28, four days earlier than Andrea in 1997. The last NE Pacific storm of 1997, also named Rick, formed on November 7, although it was followed on December 2 by Tropical Storm Paka in the Central Pacific.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 05:10 AM)