Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: May 18, 2013

Atlantic Tracking Map:

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, May 18, 2013

The Atlantic Hurricane Season ended on November 30, 2012. Unless an off-season storm develops in the area, the next issue date for this product will be 1st June 2013.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

5:00 am PDT on May 18, 2013

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

The Atantic Season Starts June 1
Accuweather

5/16/2013 2:39:57 PM

The official start of the 2013 Hurricane Season is June 1. There are no signs of pre season development at this time. If pre season development is expected we will start our routine updates right away. In a normal season the Atlantic Basin experiences 12 tropical storms. 6 of those storms become hurricanes and 3 of the 6 hurricanes become major hurricanes, category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin is located about 790 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Satellite imagery show no closed low-level circulation associated with Alvin in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ and has devolved into an open tropical wave.

Elsewhere, there are no areas of concern for development over the Eastern Pacific.

Thursday, May 16, 2013 5:18 am

I continue to closely monitor the idea of a strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation that is expected to track into the Caribbean between May 24th and May 29th. This pulse of upward moving air will lead to enhanced rainfall and lowering barometric pressures. This upward MJO pulse can also lead to tropical cyclone development and this is what may occur during the first week of June in the southwestern Caribbean.

Even if tropical cyclone development does not occur in early June, a heavy rainfall and flash flood/mudslide threat may materialize across Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico by about Memorial Day weekend. So, all of our Crown Weather friends in these areas should be aware of this possibility.

Other than that, the tropical Atlantic is quiet with no other areas of concern. I will continue to monitor the possibility of western Caribbean tropical development for the beginning of June closely and will continue to have frequent updates.

First tropical depression of the year forming in the Eastern Pacific
Jeff Masters

1:34 PM GMT on May 15, 2013

Latest satellite image of Invest 90E.

The official start of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is Wednesday, May 15 (today!), and Mother Nature is playing along with this idea. The first "Invest" of the year, Invest 90E, has become well-organized on satellite loops, and NHC has set in motion the process to name this system Tropical Depression One-E (or possibly Tropical Storm Alvin) at 11 am EDT. Wind shear is a low 5 -10 knots, and is predicted to remain low for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are a warm 29 - 30°C, and it is possible that this could become Hurricane Alvin late this week. The storm is moving west-northwest into the Central Pacific, and is not a threat to any land areas.

I'll have a new post late this morning or early this afternoon on yesterday's remarkable heat wave in the Midwest. Can you believe 106° in Iowa and 108° in Nebraska, after unprecedented May snows were falling less than two weeks ago? Unbelievable!

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)