Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: July 7, 2015

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, July 7, 2015

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected, in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.


Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

July 7, 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Caribbean Sea

Tropical waves...
A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean basin with axis approximately near 69w...moving W at 15 kt. SSMI total precipitable water imagery depict dry air in the northern wave environment. Both the dry air and strong deep layer wind shear hinder convection in the vicinity of the wave at this time.

Discussion, Caribbean Sea...
SSMI total precipitable water imagery show dry air across great portions of the basin...including the Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico and Hispaniola where dust and hazy conditions are being reported. The imagery show a moist airmass moving across the Windward Passage that is enhancing scattered showers and tstms over Haiti SW adjacent waters and Jamaica. Isolated showers are being reported across the Windward Islands being enhanced by moisture associated with a tropical wave with axis currently near 69w and another wave near 58w. Water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry conditions aloft...supporting fair weather elsewhere. Deep convection is only occurring across N-NW Colombia...Panama...southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica...including the adjacent coastal waters S of 11n. Otherwise...NE to E winds of 20 to 30 kt are from 10.5n to 15n between 72w and 80w with seas from 8 to 13 ft. E winds of 20 to 25 kt are from 10.5n to 13n W of 80w with seas from 8 to 11 ft. E to se winds of 20 to 25 kt are from 17n to 18n between 70w and 73w with seas to 8 ft. Winds of 20 kt or less are elsewhere S of 17n between 72w and 83w with seas from 8 to 11 ft in NE to E swell. The area of strongest trades is expected to remain between 68w-82w throughout the week ahead.


48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic Basin to Remain Quiet
Accuweather

7/6/2015 10:12:58 PM

There are no organized tropical features across the Atlantic Basin at this time. A combination of moderate-to-strong shear, dry, dusty stable air and higher-than-normal surface pressure covers most of the basin. These conditions are expected to remain much of the week at least.

There are a few tropical waves over the Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean, generally south of 17 North, but these are only producing enhanced areas of showers and have no development with them.



120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

No Tropical Development Expected This Week; Things May Become More Active During Mid & Late July
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Monday, July 6, 2015 7:40 am

No Tropical Development Expected Throughout This Week: The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is generally quiet this morning. The only convection noted is thunderstorm activity associated with the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone across the central and eastern Atlantic between the southernmost Lesser Antilles and the western coast of Africa. No tropical development is expected from this thunderstorm activity and in fact, no tropical development is expected anywhere in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico throughout this week.

Water vapor satellite loops show a upper level low pressure system that is located to the east of the Bahamas along 70 West Longitude. This upper level low pressure is forecast to slowly track southwestward over the next few days and will be located over the southeastern Bahamas by about Thursday. By late this week into this weekend, this upper level low pressure system is expected to be located near the Florida Straits and may push into the northwestern Caribbean by late this weekend into early next week. Tropical development is unlikely due to forecast unfavorable environmental conditions. This upper level low pressure system will, however, enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across the central and southern Bahamas from Wednesday through Friday and across south Florida and the Florida Keys from Friday through Sunday.


The Eastern Atlantic Near The Coast Of Africa May Have An Increase In Tropical Disturbances This Week Into Next Week: Satellite imagery this morning showed a tropical wave over western Africa near 12 West Longitude. This tropical wave is expected to move into the far eastern Atlantic within the next day or so. The GFS and European model guidance continue to forecast that some sort of low pressure system may form from this tropical wave as it tracks westward across the eastern Atlantic by late this week. The model guidance also forecasts that this tropical wave will remain at a very low latitude (along 10 North Latitude) this weekend through next week and could approach the southernmost Lesser Antilles by late next week.

In addition to this, the long range model guidance does forecast that convection and moisture will increase across the central and eastern Atlantic from the Lesser Antilles to the west coast of Africa over the next couoke of weeks. None of the global model guidance forecasts tropical development with dry air and unfavorable wind shear conditions putting a stop to any tropical development. This increase in moisture could bring an increase of rainfall to the southern Lesser Antilles, including Barbados, Grenada, Tobago and Trinidad over the next couple of weeks.

All of the tropical waves that are expected to track westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles will be watched closely, however, the environment across the central and eastern Atlantic is quite hostile with an abundant amount of dry air present along with moderate amounts of wind shear. Nevertheless, each tropical wave will be monitored closely as they track westward from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of weeks.

I’m Still Watching Mid To Late July For Potential Tropical Development: I continue to believe that the next chance for tropical development may occur during the middle to end of this month. Right now, the Pacific is very busy with three tropical cyclones occurring over the western Pacific and new development expected very soon over the eastern Pacific. The reason for this is a upward motion spike of the Madden Julian Oscillation that is centered over the Pacific. This upward motion spike is forecast to move into the Atlantic Basin within the next week to 10 days or so. The big question is how much energy will the Madden Julian Oscillation have when it reaches the Atlantic.

In my opinion, based on the model guidance, it appears that the Madden Julian Oscillation will weaken as it moves into the Atlantic, but it should have just enough energy to possibly trigger tropical development somewhere across the Gulf of Mexico or near the US Southeast Coast during the middle to end of this month.

Right now, the model guidance does not forecast outright tropical development, but the GFS model does forecast a strong tropical disturbance to track from the western Caribbean during the middle to end of next week to across the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend of July 18th. It should be noted that the GFS model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a tropical disturbance to track from the western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico during the July 15th to July 19th time frame.

In addition to this hint from the model guidance, the European model guidance forecasts some sort of low pressure system to linger near the North Carolina coast late this weekend into early next week before it is ejected northeastward out into the open Atlantic.

So, even though the model guidance are not forecasting outright tropical development, they are dropping hints that the area from off of the US Southeast Coast to the Gulf of Mexico will need to be monitored for tropical development starting as soon as next week and continuing through the end of this month.

Historically, the middle of July has been quite favorable for tropical storm development off of the US East Coast during El Nino years. We had Bill and Claudette off of the Carolina coastline in 1997, Arthur near the North Carolina coast in 2002, and Beryl off of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast in 2006.

It continues to be my opinion that things will remain quiet in terms of tropical development right through this entire week into this upcoming weekend with the next chance for tropical development occurring sometime between July 15th and July 25th in an area from off of the US Southeast coast to the eastern and southern Gulf of Mexico.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT/8 am CDT Wednesday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Tuesday.



Tropical Atlantic Quiet
Jeff Masters

3:21 PM GMT on June 30, 2015

The tropics are quiet in the Atlantic Ocean, where no tropical storm activity is likely for at least the next week. A moderate-strength El Niño event is underway in the Eastern Pacific, and the atmospheric circulation associated with the strong warming of the waters off the coast of Peru is creating strong upper-level winds over the Caribbean. These powerful winds were creating a very high 60 - 70 knots of wind shear over the Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, making tropical storm formation virtually impossible in these regions. In addition, the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic, including the Caribbean Sea, has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air since April, which has made it difficult for thunderstorms to develop. The high wind shear and low instability is forecast to persist in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for at least the next week. Wind shear is lower in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. East Coast, so if we get any tropical storms forming during the first week of July, those would be the most likely locations. Tropical storms that form just off the U.S. coast typically get going along a cold front that moves off the coast and then stalls over the water. The models are currently showing no fronts active enough to promote such development through the first week of July.


Figure 1. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2015. The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Normal instability is the black line, and this year's instability levels are in blue. The atmosphere has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air since April, which has made it difficult for thunderstorms to develop. Instability has also been unusually low in the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa, but has been near average over the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.


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Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image





Edited by Marty (Yesterday at 05:41 AM)