Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: April 26, 2015

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, April 26, 2015

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on December 1, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1

3/12/2015 2:34:28 PM

The 2015 North Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

The 2014 season featured nine total depressions, eight of which became named systems and six of which went on to become hurricanes. The strongest hurricane of the season was Gonzalo, which peaked at a maximum sustained wind speed of 145 mph.

The first storm of the season, Hurricane Arthur, made landfall along the North Carolina Outer Banks near Cape Lookout in early July.

120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

We May Have To Watch The Area Very Near The Florida Peninsula Or Across The Northwestern Bahamas For Both Low Pressure Development & Tropical Mischief Starting Between May 1st & May 4th
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Saturday, April 25, 2015 4:52 pm

The various model guidance, including the GFS, European and Canadian models, are all now agreeing that we are going to have to watch for both low pressure development and possible tropical mischief starting around May 1st. This potential mischief may develop at the tail end of a frontal system either near the northwestern Bahamas or very near the Florida coast, depending on which set of model guidance you look at.

The GFS model guidance was the first in showing this potential several days ago and it continues to strongly hint at this potential. The latest GFS model forecasts from today shows the possibility of a weak low pressure system developing near the Florida Keys or near the southwestern coast of Florida around May 1st. It forecasts that this low pressure system may meander around just offshore of the west coast of Florida during May 2nd and May 3rd before becoming absorbed into a larger low pressure system tracking into the eastern United States by May 5th and 6th.

The Canadian model guidance has now jumped on board and forecasts the development of a low pressure system near the coast of southeastern Florida on May 4th. The Canadian model then forecasts that this low pressure system will track northwestward just offshore of the east coast of Florida by May 5th.

The European model guidance forecasts either a mid or upper level low pressure system to form just north of the Bahamas by May 5th. This system forms as energy is left behind from a departing east coast low pressure system late next week.

Here are my thoughts: In looking at the forecast environmental conditions around the area that this low pressure system forms in. The GFS model forecasts very strong westerly wind shear which would mean anything that forms would likely be non-tropical in nature. The Canadian model guidance actually forecasts that an area of lower shear may develop around this low pressure system and thus tries to develop this low pressure system into some sort of a tropical system.

Given the increasing agreement among the forecast guidance that some sort of low pressure system may form at the tail end of a front (sometimes a favorable spot for tropical development), I do think it is a scenario that will need to be watched in case this low pressure system does form near the Florida coast or near the northern Bahamas. In addition, the ocean water temperatures near Florida and near the Bahamas are warmer than average for this time of year. So, if the shear does decrease over any low pressure system, it would certainly have the fuel to try and develop.

Finally, this potential development as forecast by the model guidance could be very well a harbinger of things to come during the early season. 1957 continues to be a very good analog to this year and Audrey did develop on June 25th of that year.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring things closely and will have updates for you over the coming days.

Given that the model guidance are already hinting at potential mischief, I will be immediately start writing regular tropical weather discussions for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. So, since this is the first regular 2015 tropical weather discussion, here are the list of Atlantic tropical cyclone names for 2015:


The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT/8 am CDT Monday morning.

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends With Below-Average Activity
Jeff Masters

4:36 PM GMT on December 01, 2014

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially in the books, ending up with below average activity--8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) that was 63% of the 1981 - 2010 median. The 2014 numbers were below the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, and way below the averages from the active hurricane period 1995 - 2013: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. The death and damage statistics for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season were gratifyingly low: there were only five deaths (four from Hurricane Gonzalo in the Lesser Antilles and one from Tropical Storm Dolly in Mexico), and total damages from all storms were less than $500 million. The quiet season was due to an atmospheric circulation that favored dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and high wind shear over the Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures were also near-average--considerably cooler than what we've gotten used to since the active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Figure 1. Tracking chart for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NHC.

Some notable facts from the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, as provided by Philip Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State:

- For the ninth consecutive year, no major hurricanes hit the U.S., marking the first time since records began in 1851 the U.S. has gone that long without a Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting. The previous record was eight years, set in 1861 - 1868. Wilma of 2005 was the last major hurricane to hit the U.S., and was also the last hurricane to hit Florida.

- For the ninth consecutive year, Florida went without a hurricane strike. This is Florida's longest hurricane-free stretch since records began in 1851. The previous longest hurricane-free streak in Florida was five years, set in 1980 - 1984.

- Arthur was the strongest storm (Category 2 at landfall) to hit the U.S. since Hurricane Ike (also Category 2 at landfall) in 2008.

- Strongest hurricane: Hurricane Gonzalo, 145 mph winds, 940 mb pressure.

- Most damaging hurricane: Hurricane Gonzalo, $200 - $400 million damage in Bermuda.

- Longest-lived named storm: Edouard, 7.75 days as a named storm.

- The eight named storms were the fewest since 1997.

- Vertical wind shear (200-850-mb) during July-September in the Caribbean (10-20N, 90-60W) was 11.3 meters per second, which was the strongest since 1986 (11.6 meters per second).

- More ACE was accrued during October (30 units) than during August and September combined (29 units). The last time that this happened was 1963.

- The pre-season forecasts made by the major forecast groups at NOAA, Colorado State, TSR, Penn State, Florida State, WSI, the UKMET office, and NC State all did well. These forecasts called for a near-average to below-average Atlantic hurricane season.

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Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Yesterday at 05:39 AM)