Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: November 22, 2014

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, November 22, 2014

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on November 22, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic Basin Likely to be Quiet Into Next Week

11/22/2014 4:45:20 AM

The atmosphere remains unfavorable for tropical development across the Atlantic Basin into next week.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Stormy Weather This Weekend For Both The Eastern & Northeast Caribbean & The Gulf Of Mexico
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Saturday, November 22, 2014 9:10 am EST/8:10 am CST

Stormy Weather For Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands & The Lesser Antilles This Weekend: An upper level low pressure system is currently located over the northeastern Caribbean this morning. This weather system is combining with a moist air mass over the eastern Caribbean to produce areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

This upper level low pressure system is forecast to hang around throughout today into part of Sunday before it drops southwestward and weakens dramatically. What this means is that areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms which may produce some localized flooding can be expected today through tonight across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and across much of the Lesser Antilles. By late tonight into Sunday, these showers and storms will end from east to west with improving weather across the eastern Caribbean by or before midday Sunday.

Additional Stormy Weather Is Possible For The Eastern & Northeastern Caribbean By The Middle To Later Parts Of Next Week: The various forecast guidance, including the GFS and European models, are forecasting the development of a low pressure system over the central Atlantic very near 20 North Latitude and 45 West Longitude around Tuesday and for this low pressure system to track west-northwestward and northwestward passing to the north of the Virgin Islands around Thursday of next week. At this point, it looks like a majority of the stormy weather associated with this low pressure system will not impact the northeastern Caribbean, however, there is the possibility that some sort of trough of low pressure could be left behind over the Lesser Antilles and may produce areas of heavy rainfall across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean from Thursday to Saturday of next week.

Bahamas, Florida Peninsula & The Gulf Of Mexico: A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently positioned from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the Florida Straits into the northern Bahamas this morning. Also, this morning there is a frontal boundary that is pushing eastward across western and northern Texas. Both weather systems will play a role in this weekend’s weather across the Gulf of Mexico.

So, for those of you with marine interests, please be aware that East to Southeast winds of 20 to 30 knots with higher gusts and seas of up to 8 to 12 feet can be expected throughout this weekend across much of the Bahamas, the waters around the Florida Peninsula and across the Gulf of Mexico.

Severe thunderstorms are still a good possibility this afternoon into tonight along the Texas coast and across the western Gulf of Mexico. Additional severe thunderstorms are likely across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi as well as across the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight. These severe thunderstorms have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

Turning to Sunday’s severe weather risk: Severe thunderstorms are quite possible throughout the day Sunday along the central and eastern Gulf coast from southeastern Louisiana through southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. In addition, severe thunderstorms are also likely to impact the waters around the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico throughout Sunday. Damaging wind gusts look to be the primary threat with any severe thunderstorms, however, a couple of tornadoes are also possible.

Finally, the European model guidance forecast is showing the possibility of some sort of low pressure system developing over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at the tail end of a frontal system on Tuesday. It should be noted that the GFS model seems to be starting to trend towards the European model with the forecast development of this low pressure system. So, the model guidance then goes on to forecast that this low pressure system will quickly track northeastward to a position near the coasts of North Carolina and Virginia by Wednesday evening and into the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday.

While any low pressure system that does form will likely remain non-tropical in nature, it seems likely that the combination of any low pressure system that does form and the frontal boundary it is attached to will produce heavy rainfall across much of the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday into Wednesday. Further north, heavy rainfall looks possible on Wednesday from eastern parts of the Carolinas northward through the Mid-Atlantic states. In addition, northeast winds gusting to 40 knots and perhaps higher are possible from the eastern Gulf of Mexico northward along the entire US Southeast coast starting sometime on Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday. Marine interests should take note of these potentially rough conditions from Tuesday through Wednesday. Also, those with travel plans from Florida northward across the Southeastern United States should be aware that rainy and windy conditions are likely from Tuesday through Wednesday and this will likely lead to travel slowdowns.

No relevant posts since
Jeff Masters

4:22 PM GMT on November 05, 2014

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Yesterday at 06:16 AM)