Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 28, 2016
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Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
6:00 AM in Belize, October 28, 2016
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about one hundred miles north of the coast of Honduras. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper level winds.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
October 28, 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure
located about a hundred miles north of the coast of Honduras.
Development of this system is not expected due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the disturbance is forecast to move
little over the next few days, and locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44w/45w from 16n
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15n to 20n between
40w and 50w.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving across the
eastern parts of the Dominican Republic along 69w/70w, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible from 17n northward between 68w and 70w. Rainshowers
also have been forming, dissipating, and re-forming between 68w
and 74w during the last six hours or more.
From the western Atlantic Ocean, into the Caribbean Sea...
A deep layer trough passes through 32n55w to 28n56w. A
stationary front passes through 32n48w to 27n60w 25n66w and
22n70w. A shear line continues from 22n70w, across N sections of
Haiti, across northern coastal sections of Jamaica, to the 1008 mb
low pressure center that is near 18n84w. A surface trough extends
from a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 18n84w, to 16n82w
and 12n82w. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 15n to
21n between 79w and 81w. This precipitation is occurring in an
area of upper level wind speed shear. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 70w westward.
...The rest of the Caribbean Sea...
An upper level ridge extends from 11n70w at the coast of
Venezuela, toward Hispaniola, toward Florida.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
A tropical wave is moving across the eastern parts of the
Dominican Republic along 69w/70w, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 17n
northward between 68w and 70w. Rainshowers also have been forming,
dissipating, and re-forming between 68w and 74w during the last
six hours or more.
24-hour rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
28/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American temperature and
precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01 knhc...is 0.41 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.27 in Curacao.
Weather Underground Caribbean Forecast
Tropical cyclone development is not anticipated across the Atlantic Basin on Saturday, while tropical activity winds down in the eastern Pacific. Hurricane Seymour is now located approximately 712 nautical miles west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Seymour was downgraded to a category 1 hurricane over the past 24 hours, with maximum wind speeds at 90 mph (80 kts). The forecast track for Hurricane Seymour takes this system north northeastward over the eastern Pacific. Over the next 48 hours, this cyclone will interact with unfavorable atmospheric conditions and cooler sea surface temperatures. As a result, Seymour is forecast to be downgraded to a tropical depression by late Friday night. Wind speeds are expected to drop below 39 mph (33 kts). This cyclone will likely deteriorate by Saturday as it merges with a trough of low pressure.
48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
No tropical development expected through at least the middle of next week
10/28/2016 3:26:10 AM
Much of the Atlantic Basin remains under the influence of strong vertical wind shear, cooling sea-surface temperatures and regions of dry, stable air. These hostile conditions will prevent tropical development across the Atlantic Basin through at least the middle of next week. A decrease in shear over the Caribbean could make that area of the basin a more favorable area for potential development this weekend and early next week. However, there are no weather disturbances approaching the eastern Caribbean at this time and no organized features are showing up on computer projections through the middle of next week.
120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Area Of Disturbed Weather Over The Northwestern Caribbean Will Produce Heavy Rainfall & Flooding Across Cuba, The Cayman Islands, The Eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica & The Florida Straits From Today Through This Weekend
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
October 28, 2016
Area Of Disturbed Weather Over The Northwestern Caribbean: An area of disturbed weather is producing shower and thunderstorm activity across the northern Caribbean near the south coast of Cuba. The actual low pressure system associated with this disturbed weather is located just north of the northern coast of Honduras near 29 North Latitude, 84 West Longitude. The environmental conditions around this disturbed weather are very unfavorable for tropical development due to high wind shear and tropical development looks unlikely.
This low pressure system and its shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to hang around the western Caribbean from today through this weekend and this means that heavy rainfall will be a problem across the western Caribbean over the next 2 to 3 days. Heavy rainfall with the threat for flooding, easterly winds of 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts and seas of up to 8 to 12 feet are expected from today through this weekend across Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida Straits, the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica.
By early next week, this low pressure system is forecast to sink southward into Central America and dissipate.
Another Area Of Disturbed Weather Is Forecast To Form Near Puerto Rico & The Virgin Islands Early Next Week: The northern Caribbean is expected to be a stormy place through this weekend into next week as high pressure over the eastern United States and a trough of low pressure now located near 20 North Latitude, 57 West Longitude creates building energy and moisture across the northern Caribbean. This increasing energy and moisture will lead to increasing heavy rainfall, increasing easterly winds and building seas across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Atlantic waters north of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas throughout this weekend into next week.
In addition to this, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form from Puerto Rico to the central Caribbean by Monday or Tuesday and remain nearly stalled near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Wednesday and Thursday of next week. By late next week this low pressure system is forecast to begin moving northward away from Puerto Rico and towards Bermuda.
This new area of disturbed weather is likely to bring heavy rainfall with the threat for flooding, increasing easterly winds of up to 25 to 35 mph and seas building to 8 to 12 feet across parts of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands starting around Monday or Tuesday and continuing through much of next week.
There is the possibility that this new area of disturbed weather could try to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm at some point next week. To me, the greatest chance for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone will be when its moving north and northeastward away from Puerto Rico late next week.
In the tropical Atlantic
October 24, 2016
For the first time in a long time, we’re looking at a quiet week across the tropical Atlantic. NHC expects no tropical cyclone formation through Wednesday. Among ensemble guidance from 00Z Monday, the GFS ensemble continues to favor the development of a tropical depression well east of the Lesser Antilles this week, but the European ensemble shows less than a 10% chance of this outcome, and none of the leading operational models (GFS, Euro, and UKMET) show any significant development. Climatology also leans away from development in the open tropical Atlantic by late October.
[Monday] Subtropical Development Possible this Week Between Bahamas and Bermuda – No Immediate Threat
An upper-level trough east of Florida is generating a region of disturbed weather near and east of the southeastern Bahamas. Such a system could gradually organize into a subtropical low between the Bahamas and Bermuda during the course of this week, but development would be slow to occur. The system poses no immediate threat, but wet weather could continue to impact portions of the Bahamas over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical storm over the next 2 days, and 50% over the next 5 days.
CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)
Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image