Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 30, 2014

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Atlantic Tracking Map:

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, October 30, 2014

A westward-moving area of low presure located just to the northeast of the Virgin Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.This system has a low chance(20%) for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48hrs.

Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on October 30, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just north of the Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast and north of the center. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Low Pressure Near Virgin Islands Monitored Closely

10/30/2014 4:45:00 AM

An area of low pressure north of the Virgin Islands has showers and thunderstorms to the around 100 miles east of the low that continues to look impressive at times on satellite images. This eastward tilt in the system is due to strong 25-30 knot westerly shear. This shear is expected to remain quite strong through the next few days. As the system gains more latitude it will encounter even stronger upper-level winds and stronger shear.

During the past 12 hours, satellite microwave images have shown near gale-force winds to the east and northeast of the low-level center. However, this same satellite data does not show a completely closed off low level wind flow. This is the main reason why this system has not been upgraded. This area of low pressure has less than 24 hours to develop a coherent low-level circulation center before it moves into stronger vertical wind shear. Current computer forecasts have backed off from supporting development. Instead the system will probably track more northwest then north and the clouds, showers and thunderstorms will get strung out from southwest to northeast north of the Virgin Islands Thursday night and Friday.

The rest of the Atlantic remains relatively quiet and we see no support for tropical development across the rest of the basin through the next five days.

120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Invest 95L To The Northeast Of The Lesser Antilles Will Continue To Bring Periods Of Heavy Rain To The Lesser Antilles Today Into Thursday
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 8:04 am

A tropical disturbance, Invest 95L, is located to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles this morning and is expected to continue to produce periods of heavy rain across much of the Lesser Antilles today into Thursday. In particular, the central and northern Lesser Antilles will see heavy rains today.

By Friday, Invest 95L is forecast to pull northward into the open Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and the heavy rainfall over the Lesser Antilles will end. It is possible that Invest 95L could try to develop over the next day or so before strong upper level winds associated with a trough of low pressure moving off of the US East Coast impacts Invest 95L. Invest 95L poses no threat to the United States, Bahamas or even Bermuda.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, no tropical development is expected over the next several days. It should be pointed out that the longer range European model is forecasting the development of a tropical system just to the east of the Bahamas in about 9 to 10 days from now. At this point, I have skepticism regarding this forecast as I have noticed that lately the European model has incorrectly spun up tropical cyclones at day 10 that was later dropped by the model and never developed. With that said, it is something that will be watched for in the coming days, especially should the European model continue to forecast this or if other models start to develop this same scenario.

95L Little Threat; TD 21E a Long-Range Threat to Mexico's Pacific Coast
Jeff Masters

3:22 PM GMT on October 30, 2014

An area of disturbed weather (95L) just north of the Virgin Islands is headed northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 95L has large, sloppy surface circulation and moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is mostly disconnected from the center of the storm by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L has dry air to its west that is likely interfering with development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are warm, about 29C. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain a high 20 - 30 knots through Saturday night, then increase to 30 - 50 knots beginning on Sunday. These high wind shear values make development conditions marginal through Saturday, then almost impossible beginning on Sunday. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict development of 95L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%. The only land area at risk from 95L is Bermuda.

Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 95L to the northeast of Puerto Rico on Wednesday afternoon October 29, 2014. The surface circulation center was exposed to view by high wind shear. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression 21E forms in the Eastern Pacific
Satellite images show that TD 21E is in the organizing stages, with a small area of heavy thunderstorms, some solidifying low-level spiral bands, and a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, characteristic of intensifying tropical storms. The storm is over warm SSTs, near 29C, but some dry air and moderate wind shear are slowing development. By Saturday, these issues should relent, allowing intensification into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico over the next four days, but our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks--the GFS and European models--forecast that TD 21E will get pulled to the northeast by a trough of low pressure early next week, and make landfall in Mainland Mexico northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday night. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain low, 5 - 10 knots, though Monday, then ramp up significantly on Monday night and Tuesday as TD 21E gets caught up in the trough of low pressure that will sling it into Mexico. The higher wind shear should be able to significantly weaken TD 21E before landfall, making heavy rain the primary threat. The next name on the Eastern Pacific list of named storms is Vance.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 09:38 AM)