Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: September 18, 2014

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, September 18, 2014

Hurricane Edouard was near latitude 39.6N and longitude 45.3W or about 890 miles East of Fayal Island in the Western Azores. Maximum sustained winds were 85 mph and Edouard was heading to the ENE at 28 mph.

Elsewhere, in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on September 18, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is located just off of the West Coast of Africa. Although shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Hurricane Edouard

...Edouard accelerating northeastward toward colder water...

at 500 am AST...0900 UTC...the center of Hurricane Edouard was located near latitude 39.6 north...longitude 45.3 west. Edouard is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph...44 km/h...but a decrease in forward speed is expected later today. An even slower eastward motion is forecast tonight through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph...140 km/h...with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Edouard is expected to weaken below hurricane strength later today or tonight and become a Post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles...370 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb...28.50 inches.

48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Edouard Racing Eastward Over Open Atlantic

9/18/2014 10:53:21 AM

Hurricane Edouard is a Category 1 Hurricane located at 39.6 N, -45.3 W with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 105 mph

Hurricane Edouard is racing east-northeast across the north central Atlantic at 30 mph. The hurricane is 890 miles west of Fayal Island in the western Azores. Edouard will soon move over cooler water and into an area of increased wind shear during the next 12-24 hours and this will cause the storm to weaken. This weakening will become more pronounced tonight and Friday. There will be no direct impact to land through at least Friday, but it could bring some rain to the Azores this weekend. Large swells from Edouard continues to impact parts of the East Coast of the United States with danger of rip currents from Cape Cod to Cape Hatteras, but these swells should subside later Thursday and Thursday night.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, there are no immediate concerns for tropical development. A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa will move westward across the far eastern Atlantic. Conditions may be favorable for slow development of this system late this week or during the upcoming weekend.

120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Three Opportunities For Tropical Mischief Over The Next 10 Days
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Thursday, September 18, 2014 7:56 am

It looks like we are going to have a few chances for tropical development over the next 7 to 10 days both near the US Southeast coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. Let me go through each of these chances and show you why it will need to be watched.

The first opportunity will come as soon as Friday into Saturday as an area of low pressure is forecast to develop about 150 miles to the east of the coast of eastern Florida. This low pressure system is expected to form at the very tail end of a frontal boundary. This low pressure system is forecast to track almost due northward this weekend and track very close to, if not right over the outer banks of North Carolina late Sunday. From there, on Sunday night into Monday, this low pressure system is forecast to track northeastward and track very near Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine and Canadian Maritimes.

I do think that this low pressure system will need to be watched for signs that it tries to transform into a tropical cyclone. Right now, given the speed that this system will be moving and that it will not be hanging around too long, I dont think it will happen. The reason for mentioning it is that it will be tracking very near the very warm Gulf Stream waters within an environment that may be somewhat favorable from Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon while its tracking from just offshore of the coast of South Carolina to the outer banks of North Carolina.

Regardless whether this low pressure develops or not, it will bring gusty north to northeast winds of up to 35 mph and periods of heavy rain to coastal sections of northeast Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina from Saturday through Sunday. For Cape Cod, Nova Scotia and eastern and southern New Brunswick, gusty south winds of up to 35 mph and periods of heavy rain are expected from Sunday night through Monday morning.

The second chance for possible tropical development may come around late next week as a tropical disturbance now located near 40 West Longitude moves into the area of the northwestern Bahamas where the environmental conditions may be favorable for tropical development. The European model guidance has been very consistent in showing this potential with the latest model run showing a broad low pressure system forming over the northwestern Bahamas by next Friday beneath a large high pressure system that will be anchored over the northeastern United States. The Canadian model guidance also forecasts the development of a low pressure system a little further north than the European model just offshore of the coast of northeast Florida. The GFS model continues to show no such development.

Given the forecast pattern by late next week into next weekend of a large high pressure system, I think the area near the US Southeast coast and over the Bahamas needs to be considered for potential development as pressures should naturally fall in this area given the offsetting rising pressures to the north over the northeastern United States.

So, between now and late next week, this tropical disturbance now near 40 West Longitude, which still has cyclonic turning with it will continue tracking west-northwestward. Part of this disturbance may impact the Lesser Antilles on Sunday and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from Monday through Tuesday with an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity along with some gusty winds expected.

The third area that may see potential development is across the Gulf of Mexico and the far western Caribbean sometime between September 26th and October 1st. The GFS model continues to be very consistent in showing low pressure developing near the Gulf of Honduras by late next week with the low pressure system gradually tracking into the southern Gulf of Mexico by September 29th. From there, the GFS model forecasts this developing/strengthening tropical cyclone to track northward reaching the northern Gulf coast by October 1st.

Normally, I would discount the GFS model outright since it has spun up tropical cyclones that have not verified in the past, but the European model is also consistent in showing the first stages of development by late next week. So, the latest European model guidance is forecasting a low pressure system to form in the Gulf of Honduras around Wednesday of next week (similar to the GFS) and for this low pressure system to gradually move into the Bay of Campeche by next Saturday (September 27th).

The overall pattern over the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean by late next week into next weekend will feature a large high pressure system over the northeastern United States which will naturally cause pressures to lower over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean leading to convergence, storminess and the potential for tropical development.

I want to point out that this is not even close to being a sure thing and is something I am potentially seeing based on pattern recognition. So, it is something to keep an eye on and I will keep you all updated.

Odile Nearing the Arizona Border; Polo Nearly a Hurricane; Edouard Weakens to Cat 1
Jeff Masters

3:27 PM GMT on September 17, 2014

Tropical Storm Odile is being pulled apart by wind shear as it tracks northeast at 6 mph across the northern Gulf of California. At 11 am EDT Wednesday, Odile was still a minimal 40 mph tropical storm, and had advanced within 110 miles of the Arizona border. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only two other named storms since 1949 are recorded to have maintained tropical storm strength so close to Arizona--Nora of 1997, and Katrina of 1967. Both were still hurricanes when they made landfall at the northern end of the Gulf of California. Satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Odile is still over water, but nearly all of Odile's heavy thunderstorms and a circulation at mid-levels have moved ashore near the Arizona/Mexico border. Odile will likely become a remnant low Wednesday night. Copious moisture from Odile's circulation brought scattered heavy rains to Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico on Tuesday, with 24-hour rainfall amounts of 0.5 - 1.5" common. Heavy rain will ramp up in intensity significantly on Wednesday evening, though, as the core of Odile's remnants cross the Arizona border. Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico are at the at highest risk of flooding, with rainfall amounts of 3 - 6" likely, and up to 9" may fall in the mountains. A flash flood watch is posted for Phoenix and Tucson in Arizona, and for Las Cruces, New Mexico. Odile's heavy rains come just ten days after moisture from Hurricane Norbert drenched Southern Arizona, bringing Phoenix its heaviest single-day rainfall in recorded history. According the the NWS in Tucson, the arrival of moisture from Odile just ten days after Norbert marks the first time on record that moisture from two tropical storms have brought the state heavy rains in a 10-day span.

Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 3-day period 8 am EDT Wednesday - 8 am EDT Saturday, from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. A large area of 3 - 7 " of rain (orange colors) is expected over Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico.

Tropical Storm Polo brushing Southwest Mexico
The Pacific coast of Mexico has a new hurricane threat to be concerned with--Tropical Storm Polo, which had intensified to 60 mph sustained winds 260 miles SSE of Manzanillo, Mexico at 11 am EDT Wednesday. The models have come into increasing agreement that the core of Polo will stay offshore, but the storm is close enough to the coast that a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Southwest Mexico. The 11 am EDT Wednesday WInd Probability Forecast from NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 22% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds. Those odds were 43% and 1%, respectively, for Manzanillo. Satellite loops show that Polo has plenty of heavy thunderstorms that are steadily growing more organized.

Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Polo.

Edouard weakens to a Category 1 hurricane
After spending just 6 hours at Category 3 strength on Tuesday, Hurricane Edouard, the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the past two years, has steadily weakened to Category 1 status as of Wednesday morning. Edouard is headed northeast over the Central Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas. On Thursday, Edouard will encounter colder waters below 26C (79F) and wind shear will rise significantly to 30 knots, which should cause rapid weakening, with dissipation likely by Friday night. Satellite images show that Edouard remained well-organized on Wednesday morning with a prominent eye. Edouard was the first Atlantic major hurricane since Hurricane Sandy made landfall over Cuba as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on October 25, 2012.

Figure 3. Hurricane Edouard as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 3 pm EDT Tuesday September 16, 2014. At the time, Edouard was a weakening Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 100 mph. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.

New African tropical wave emerging from Africa
A tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa on Wednesday night is being given some lukewarm support for developing near the Cape Verde Islands by Saturday from our reliable tropical cyclone genesis models. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 10%, respectively. This wave looks like it will have too much dry air to contend with to become a tropical storm.

Figure 4. MODIS true-color image of a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa at approximately 8 am EDT September 17, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 06:10 AM)