Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: August 4, 2015

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, August 4, 2015

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

August 4, 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located along the Georgia coast is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper- level winds are not expected to be conducive for development while this low moves northeastward at about 10 mph near the southeastern United States coast during the next day or so. For additional information on this system, see high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Tropical waves...
A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis extending from 18n36w to 09n37w moving W at around 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Model guidance indicates 700 mb troughing from 34w to 39w. SSMI tpw shows the wave at the leading edge of a poleward surge in tropical moisture. No deep convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 20n48w to 10n48w...moving W at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 45w and 53w. SSMI tpw imagery shows a dry environment surrounding this wave N of 13n along with Saharan dust indicated by Meteosat imagery. A moist environment is indicated S of 13n. No deep convection is noted with this wave.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with an axis extending from the Windward Passage at 20n78w to 10n79w moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 76w and 81w. Isolated moderate convection is from 18n to 22n between 75w and 82w.

Discussion, Caribbean Sea...
Gale-force winds are near the coast of N Colombia. Please see the special features section for more details. Strong trade winds are over the remainder of the S central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere over the Caribbean. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. Please see the tropical waves section for more details. An upper trough that extends across the NW Caribbean is interacting with a moderately moist airmass to support isolated moderate convection from 15n to 21n between 82w and 87w. The remainder of the Caribbean is free of deep convection this morning. Convection will continue over the NW Caribbean today.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic Remains Devoid of Tropical Activity

8/4/2015 9:56:12 AM

The Atlantic remains devoid of any named tropical systems at this time and the chance for any development over the next day or two remains very slim.

We continue to monitor an area of low pressure located along the Georgia coast to the northeast of Jacksonville, Florida. This low center continues to track to the northeast around 10 mph. Further development of this low center remains highly unlikely due to interaction with nearby land along with strong vertical wind shear.

Another area of concern might evolve later in the week.

A strong tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa later today over an area of relatively low shear and warm water. However, dry stable air remains in place over this area and this dry stable air will be a deterrent to consistent thunderstorm development. If this tropical wave can develop sustained thunderstorms it could slowly evolve into an organized tropical system late in the week or over the upcoming weekend.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, no development is expected over the next several days.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Update On Invest 95-L Which May Become A Tropical Depression Or A Tropical Storm As It Tracks Along The South & North Carolina Coast This Afternoon & Tonight
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, August 4, 2015 11:25 am

Satellite imagery and radar loops indicates that Invest 95-L is getting better organized as it tracks along the South Carolina coast this morning. The low pressure system that is Invest 95-L is centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina as of late this morning. Satellite imagery clearly shows a pretty large blowup in the thunderstorm activity associated with this system. Radar loops from the Charleston, South Carolina and Wilmington, NC radar sites is showing some banding to the thunderstorm activity. In addition to this, surface weather observations and buoy reports indicate that the circulation with Invest 95-L has become better defined with winds near 35 mph being reported over the water just offshore of the South and North Carolina coasts.

Even though environmental conditions are not all that favorable around this system, it certainly looks like Invest 95-L may be upgraded to a tropical depression or a tropical storm at some point this afternoon or this evening. It should be pointed out that the high resolution 4 km NAM model has been very consistent in forecasting that this system will indeed be a tropical storm as it passes over the outer banks of North Carolina around midnight tonight. In addition, the 4 km NAM model also forecasts Invest 95-L will continue to strengthen into a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm on Wednesday as it tracks east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream away from the Mid-Atlantic coast.

An Air Force Reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate Invest 95-L this afternoon to determine if this is indeed a tropical cyclone. I will update you with the latest once I see the data from the recon flight.

At the minimum, Invest 95-L is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds of up to 40 mph to coastal sections of South and North Carolina this afternoon through tonight. It is possible that the winds could gust to 50 or 60 mph on the outer banks of North Carolina tonight should Invest 95-L really spin up and strengthen like the high resolution models suggest.

I am monitoring Invest 95-L closely and will have further updates as conditions warrant.

Invest 95L Information:

Model Track Forecast:
Courtesy of South Florida Water Management District
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Model Intensity Forecast:
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Satellite Imagery:

Radar Imagery:

In the tropics
Jeff Masters

1:36 AM GMT on August 04, 2015

Moving into increasingly hostile conditions, Tropical Storm Guillermo continued its slow weakening trend on Monday. Guillermo’s sustained winds were reduced to 65 mph in the 3:00 pm EDT Monday advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. As expected, westerly wind shear is ramping up along Guillermo’s track as the storm gains latitude, with vertical shear values likely to exceed 30 mph by Wednesday. With regular input from hurricane-hunter reconnaissance flights, computer models have nudged Guillermo’s west-northwest track a bit further away from the Hawaiian islands. Tropical storm watches may be issued for parts of the state, although it appears that large swells and localized heavy rains will be the main threat from Guillermo. The scenario is very reminiscent of Tropical Storm Flossie, which moved along a similar track paralleling and just north of the Hawaiian Islands while weakening from a tropical storm to a tropical depression. Meanwhile, a new system in the Northeast Pacific, Invest 92E, shows potential for developing into a tropical storm later this week, but it is unlikely to affect any major land areas.

In the Atlantic, tenacious Invest 95L is now hugging the coast of Georgia as it parallels the southeast U.S. coast on its slow northeastward path. Though still poorly organized, 95L brought heavy rains to the central Florida peninsula, especially across the Tampa Bay area, with flooding a concern throughout the day on Monday. Tampa notched 4.39” of rain on Monday, eclipsing the daily record of 2.57” from 1913. These rains came on top of 3.89” observed in Tampa on Saturday and 11.84” through July (most of it during the last two weeks of the month). Chances of 95L developing into a tropical cyclone while moving so close to the southeast U.S. coast are minimal. By Wednesday, 95L should be accelerating out to sea off the North Carolina coast.

A large and healthy tropical wave was just coming off the African coast on Monday night, with some hints that it could develop into an invest-worthy system over the next several days. For more on what’s brewing there and elsewhere, check out this afternoon’s post from WU blogger Steve Gregory.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 11:14 AM)