Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 24, 2014
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Belize NMS Forecast
6:00 AM in Belize, October 24, 2014
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
6:00 am EST on October 24, 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders
of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are currently producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The system is
expected to move eastward across northern Belize this morning and
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by this afternoon, and it has a
small chance of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a
cold front in two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
Quiet for Now
10/24/2014 9:42:20 AM
The remnants of Tropical Depression 9 continue to bring shower and thunderstorm activity to the southern Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected to gradually work its way into the Caribbean, though re-development appears to be unlikely at this point.
Elsewhere, a non-tropical disturbance is expected to ride along a cold front and bring the threat for heavy rainfall to the Florida Keys and Bahamas on Friday. By late Saturday, the threat for heavy rainfall will shift towards Bermuda.
120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
One Large Complex Mess From The Northwestern Caribbean To The Northern Bahamas Still Needs Some Monitoring Right Through This Weekend
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
Friday, October 24, 2014 7:56 am
Satellite imagery indicated that widespread showers and thunderstorms stretched from the northwestern Caribbean northeastward across Cuba to the northern half of the Bahamas. These showers and thunderstorms are associated with a complex interaction between what is left of Tropical Depression 9 located near the coast of Belize and a non-tropical low pressure system now located over the Florida Straits.
It is expected that the low pressure system will pull off to the northeast reaching the area around the northern Bahamas by tonight before pushing out into the open Atlantic during this weekend.
For Those You In The Northern Bahamas, Including Grand Bahama, Great Abaco, Nassau & Eleuthera: This low pressure system will bring you some very stormy weather from this afternoon through tonight and into Saturday. This very stormy weather will include wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph, heavy rain and occasional thunderstorms and some very rough seas. Please be aware of this if you have plans from today through Saturday across the northern Bahamas. Bottom line is that for you in the northern Bahamas, prepare for this as if it is a tropical storm.
What is left of Tropical Depression #9 is expected to be left behind in the northwestern Caribbean throughout this weekend where we should at least keep an eye on it throughout the weekend and into early next week. Right now, none of the model guidance are forecasting re-generation of TD 9. The weather pattern this weekend across the northwestern Caribbean will include an injection of dry air pushing southeastward into the western Caribbean and wind shear of at least 15 to 25 knots. This combination of wind shear and dry air is likely to squash any chances of TD 9 redeveloping and at this point I give the chances of TD 9 redeveloping this weekend into early next week about 5 to 10 percent.
These two weather features, the non-tropical low pressure system in the Florida Straits and what is left of TD 9 will produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts across the northwestern Caribbean, central and western Cuba, south Florida and the Florida Keys from today through Saturday.
Tropical Depression Nine Dissipates
1:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2014
Small and weak Tropical Depression Nine dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night, shortly after making landfall near 8 pm EDT Wednesday October 22, 2014 on the western shore of the peninsula. Mexican radar out of Sabancuy and satellite loops show that ex-TD 9 is bringing some heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters, and this activity will continue into the weekend. By Saturday, some of the spin associated with TD 9 may emerge over the Western Caribbean, and we should carefully watch this area on Sunday and Monday for tropical cyclone development--though none of our reliable models were predicting development in their Thursday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. will inject a large amount of dry air into the Western Caribbean this weekend, discouraging development, and wind shear is expected to be a rather high 15 - 25 knots, which should keep any development slow. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 9 in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, October 22, 2014. Image credit: NASA.
Eastern Pacific disturbance may develop
An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border may end up impacting whether or not a tropical depression can form in the Western Caribbean from ex-TD 9. The Eastern Pacific disturbance is close enough to the Western Caribbean to compete for energy and moisture, and upper-level outflow from the Eastern Pacific storm could bring high wind shear over the Western Caribbean. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the Eastern Pacific disturbance by early next week, and in their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 50%, respectively. The storm will move slowly northwards, and will likely bring heavy rains to the coast of Mexico and Guatemala this weekend.
Arabian Sea disturbance may develop
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, an area of disturbed weather (Invest 90A) has formed, and our top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and European models, have been consistently predicting in recent runs that this disturbance will develop into a significant tropical cyclone by early next week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives the disturbance a low chance of developing by Friday, but notes conditions are favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, excellent upper-level outflow, and very warm ocean temperatures of 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F.) The storm will head slowly northwards over the next week, and is not a threat to make landfall for at least five days.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Invest 90A in the Arabian Sea on Thursday morning, October 23, 2014. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Depression #9 Forms – Expected to Stay Weak but a Big Rain Maker
CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)
Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image