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Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
3:00 AM in Belize, October 8, 2015
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
October 8, 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Joaquin has become a Post-tropical cyclone. The last advisory that was written about Joaquin was transmitted at 08/0300 UTC. The center that now is near 43n35w is associated with a frontal boundary. The cold front that is related to the Post-tropical cyclone reaches 32n41w. Convective precipitation...broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 41n to 51n between 15w and 32w.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28w/29w from 17n southward...moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A tilted 700 mb trough is evident in model streamlines with a surge of deep moisture preceding the wave. Convective precipitation...widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm on either side of 15n22w 10n28w 06n34w 03n42w. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10n to 13n between 30w and 43w.
A low amplitude Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53w/54w
from 11n southward...moving westward 15 to 20 knots during the
last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a subtle 700 mb trough.
Convective precipitation...scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 09n to 11n between 53w and 57w.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 21n61w 17n62w 14n63w
10n63w. The wave has been moving westward 15 knots during the
last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a fairly sharp 700 mb
trough between 59w and 65w and remains embedded within an area
of moderate to high moisture and diffluent flow aloft.
Convective precipitation...numerous strong from 17n to 23n
between 57w and 60w. Scattered strong from 11n to 14n between
58w and 60w. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
elsewhere from 10n to 20n between 60w and 63w.
Discussion, The Caribbean Sea...
Please refer to the section that is about tropical waves...for more details about the Caribbean Sea tropical wave that is along 21n61w 17n62w 14n63w 10n63w
A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32n74w to
26n73w 22n72w...cutting right through Haiti...to 16n74w...into
northern Colombia. Convective precipitation...widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 16n southward between 76w and
85w in eastern sections of Nicaragua.
Upper level moisture covers the area from 15n southward from 68w
westward... in an area of largely upper level westerly wind
flow. The monsoon trough is along 09n/10n between 75w in
Colombia to 83w/84w at the coast of Costa Rica...and beyond into
the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
08/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American temperature and
precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01 knhc...are 0.24 in
Tropical Storm Joaquin
...Joaquin has become a Post-tropical cyclone...
...This is the last advisory...
At 1100 PM AST (0300 utc), the center of Post-tropical cyclone
Joaquin was located near latitude 42.0 north, longitude 37.0 west.
The Post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 35 mph (56
km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
Joaquin Now A Post-Tropical Cyclone in the North Atlantic; Rest of Basin Quiet
Tropical Storm Joaquin has been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone late Wednesday evening and continues to move quickly to the east at 35 mph.
The eastward motion of Post-Tropical Cyclone Joaquin has brought the system over progressively colder ocean water temperatures. This has caused the storm to transition into a non tropical low pressure area.
This non-tropical version of Joaquin will continue to move quickly to the east today into Friday, then it will slow down and weaken. It will and eventually move toward the coast of Portugal this weekend and bring gusty winds to coastal Portugal. It will also bring showery rains to all of Portugal and parts of Spain.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic remains devoid of any organized tropical weather features. A very disorganized tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles will bring gusty showery weather to the eastern Caribbean today into Saturday. Strong westerly winds aloft will deter any development of this disorganized system.
New tropical development is not expected across the Atlantic Basin through early next week.
120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Western Caribbean Tropical Development Continues To Be A Possibility Between October 15th & October 20th
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
October 7, 2015
Western Caribbean Tropical Development Continues To Be A Possibility Between October 15th & October 20th: It continues to look possible that we could see some sort of tropical development occur in the western Caribbean between about next Thursday, October 15th and Tuesday, October 20th as the long range operational GFS model and its ensemble members continue to be fairly consistent in forecasting tropical development. In fact, the most recent forecast from the European model guidance now forecasts the possibility of tropical development in about 10 days from now or around October 16th and 17th.
So, in looking at the various model guidance, the GFS model guidance has been fairly consistent in forecasting that an area of low pressure could form in the southwestern Caribbean as soon as Tuesday of next week and gradually lift northward into the northwestern Caribbean by around Thursday of next week. From there, the GFS model forecasts this system to track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by October 18th and then forecasts it to track across south Florida around October 19th.
The GFS ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement with its operational counterpart as it hints at lowering barometric pressures across the southwestern Caribbean between about Tuesday and Thursday of next week. From there, the GFS ensemble guidance is split on where this low pressure system may track with some of the ensemble members forecasting a northwestern track into the northwestern Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend of October 17th-18th while other ensemble members forecast that this system may get trapped in the southwestern Caribbean for a few days before lifting northward to near the Cayman Islands by October 19th. Finally, it should be noted that the GFS ensemble guidance is forecasting a 30 percent chance for tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean between October 13th and October 17th.
The Canadian model guidance forecasts no significant tropical development in the western or southwestern Caribbean like the GFS model is showing. The European model guidance is now starting to hint at tropical development in the western Caribbean by next Friday. It should be pointed out that the European ensemble guidance is forecasting a 40 percent chance for tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean between October 13th and October 17th.
Here Are My Thoughts: Even though the western Caribbean is a climatologically favored area for tropical development this time of year, I am skeptical of what the GFS model guidance is forecasting. The main reason why is that the GFS model is notorious for crying wolf this time of year in the western Caribbean in terms of tropical development. This exact scenario of the GFS model forecasting tropical development in the western Caribbean occurred almost one year ago and it failed big time as nothing did develop.
Now, with that said, it is definitely too early to definitely determine whether tropical development will actually occur between October 15th and October 20th in the western Caribbean. Climatology definitely tells us that we should be watching the western Caribbean closely for potential tropical development this time of year.
It is my thinking that we could end up seeing increasing amounts of moisture and thunderstorm activity to occur across the southwestern Caribbean as soon as early next week due to the fact that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation moves into the western Caribbean. It remains to be seen whether a tropical system organizes in the southwestern or western Caribbean. So, at this point, I am taking a wait and see approach on possible tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean as soon as later next week, but it goes without saying that I am keeping a close eye on this and will keep you updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT/8 am CDT Friday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Thursday.
3:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2015
Hurricane Joaquin is no more. The storm has become an extratropical storm over the cold waters of the north central Atlantic, ending its ten-day rampage. At its peak at 00 UTC October 2, Joaquin stood just below Category 5 status, with 155 mph winds and a central pressure of 931 mb. By the time Joaquin's remnant reaches Portugal on Saturday, the ex-hurricane should have top winds of about 35 mph.
Joaquin Begins to Move Away from the Bahamas No Threat to the United States
CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)