Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: June 25, 2016

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, June 25, 2016

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

June 25, 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is not expected. However, locally heavy rain is possible when the system moves inland over eastern Mexico later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Tropical waves...
Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 64w from 15n to inland over South America moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI total precipitable water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 72w south of 16n to inland over South America moving west-northwest near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI total precipitable water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Caribbean Sea...

An upper ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico covers the Caribbean west of 84w. The small upper features over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and The Straits of Florida with a surface trough extending from 19n86w through the Yucatan Channel to 24n83w are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean north of 20n west of 77w to over Cuba and the Yucatan. An upper trough over the west- central Atlantic extends a trough axis across the Mona Passage into the Caribbean along 15n73w to Central America near 14n84w covering the remainder of the Caribbean except the southeast Caribbean where an upper ridge covers the area anchored in the west tropical Atlantic. This upper ridge is advecting moisture across the the far east Caribbean with possible isolated showers. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica along 8n/9n generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 13n west of 75w to inland over Colombia to south Nicaragua. Tropical waves will move across the south Caribbean and South America into early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across much of the central Caribbean into early next week.

Weather Underground Caribbean Forecast

Tropical cyclone development is not anticipated across the eastern Pacific or the Atlantic Basin on Sunday. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure have shifted over southeast Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. This area of low pressure has a low, 10% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone as it drifts westward. Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will work together to trigger showers and thunderstorms across a large span of Mexico. The most organized storms will occur along favorable slopes along the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains and the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountains. Guadalajara, Mexico, is forecast to receive between 15 to 25 millimeters of rain with a high of 85(F)/ 29(C). Mexico City, Mexico, will experience intermittent thunderstorms on Sunday with a high of 72(F)/ 22(C).

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Monitoring low pressure in Bay of Campeche

6/24/2016 9:46:40 PM

A few tropical waves are present in the Atlantic Basin, but most of them do not show any signs of development any time in the near future. We are currently watching a weak area of low pressure crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This low is expected to track west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche tonight. The water in this area is very warm, so there is some potential for tropical development. However, the window of opportunity for development is short, as the low will move back over land by Saturday.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

The Western Caribbean & The Gulf Of Mexico Is An Area To Keep An Eye On For Possible Tropical Development Over The Next 8 To 14 Days
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

June 23, 2016

Invest 95-L In The Northwestern Caribbean: A tropical wave with an associated low pressure system is located in the northwestern Caribbean. Satellite imagery indicated that there is only a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity around Belize and the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Looking at the environmental conditions, there is 20 knots of west-northwesterly wind shear impacting Invest 95-L right now. Given this and the limited amount of shower and thunderstorm activity, I do not expect to see any type of development from this system today.

Invest 95-L is forecast to track across the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon and tonight and will move into the Bay of Campeche on Friday. It should be pointed out that wind shear values in the Bay of Campeche are expected to be 20 to 30 knots on Friday and these moderate amounts of wind shear will likely lead to Invest 95-L not developing at all before it moves inland into southeastern Mexico on Saturday.

Invest 95L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Model Intensity Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Small Possibility Of Tropical Development In The Area From The Western Caribbean Into The Gulf Of Mexico Between July 1st & July 7th: Next week is the time that I think we will need to closely monitor the western Caribbean for signs of tropical development as some of the model guidance continues to be very persistent in forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean during the Fourth of July Holiday weekend that tracks into the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of July.

The GFS model guidance continues to be very consistent in forecasting that an area of disturbed weather will push into the northwestern Caribbean around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. From there, the GFS model guidance forecasts that an area of low pressure will form within this area of disturbed weather around the Yucatan Peninsula as we get into next Friday (July 1st) and next Saturday (July 2nd). By about July 4th, the GFS model guidance forecasts this system will track into the Bay of Campeche. Beyond that, the GFS model guidance continues to have a wide range of possible outcomes during the first week of July with each new model forecast run – from a landfall along the middle and upper Texas coast on July 7th to a landfall somewhere along the Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama coastline on July 6th or 7th. This is expected with a 10 to 14 day model forecast and the takeaway is to not focus on any one model run, but instead know that the GFS model continues to strongly hint at a tropical cyclone to form during the July 4th weekend that possibly pushes into the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of July.

The European and Canadian model guidance, on the other hand, are very persistent in forecasting no tropical development at all in the western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, both models forecasts a couple of tropical cyclones to form in the eastern Pacific by later next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: Even though I am not ruling out tropical development in the western Caribbean during the July 4th Holiday Weekend, I do have quite a bit of skepticism that it will actually happen. The reason why I am skeptical is because the GFS model seems the lone ranger in forecasting development while other reliable models, particularly the European model guidance, is forecasting no such tropical development. So, the GFS model has been notorious in the past with forecasting tropical cyclones that never happened (ghost or phantom storms) and there is the possibility that we could be seeing the same type of forecast from the GFS model (a ghost or phantom storm) and everyone should be cautious when looking at the GFS model in case it’s wrong.

Now, on the other hand, the reason why I am not ruling out tropical development during the Fourth of July weekend over the western Caribbean is because it looks likely that we may see a upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) move into the Atlantic at the very beginning of July. These upward motion pulses signal that there will be a increase in thunderstorm activity and increased chances of tropical development.

Looking at the current weather data, the westward moving tropical wave that I am eyeing for possible trouble down the road is located along 53 West Longitude. This tropical wave could be the weather feature that instigates tropical development in the western Caribbean late next week into next weekend. Satellite imagery indicates there is some shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it and it is a weather system that will be watched over the next week or so as it continues to track westward.

So, what may happen over the next week or two is the tropical wave now located along 53 West Longitude will continue to track westward over the next week. This tropical wave may organize into an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean as soon as next Wednesday or next Thursday. The question is will this area of disturbed weather shift into the eastern Pacific like the European and Canadian model guidance are suggesting or will this area of disturbed weather push northward towards the Gulf of Mexico during the July 4th weekend like the GFS model is forecasting. At this point, I’m not committing to any one idea as there are credible reasons to support either western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tropical development or eastern Pacific tropical development.

It goes without saying that I will be monitoring the latest model guidance and the latest data very closely over the next week or two and I will keep you updated on the latest.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Friday Morning.


95L in the Southern Gulf of Mexico a low threat to develop
Jeff Masters

June 24, 2016

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 95L over the Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico (Invest 95L) has grown less organized since Thursday, and no longer appears to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite loops late Friday morning showed 95L had only a limited amount heavy thunderstorms, which were poorly organized and had no signs of rotation. The Air Force hurricane hunter mission scheduled for Friday was cancelled. 95L is expected to move ashore over Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico on Saturday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%. The next name on the Atlantic list of named storms is Earl, but don't expect it to get used for 95L.

None of our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis are showing anything developing in the Atlantic through at least June 29.

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Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (06/25/16 06:59 AM)