Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 21, 2014

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, October 21, 2014

An area of low pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.This system has a medium chance(50%) to become a tropical cyclone over the next day or two as it moves slowly eastward.

Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.


Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on October 21, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited. This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late Wednesday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City


Gonzalo Remains Post-Tropical; Watching the Gulf of Mexico
Accuweather

10/21/2014 4:00:37 AM

Gonzalo is post-tropical and will impact the British Isles today with a bout of gale-force winds and rain.

A disturbance moving through the Bay of Campeche will eventually move toward the Florida Straits by the end of the week, spreading rain into South Florida on Thursday night into Friday. There is a small chance the feature could become a tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday as it encounters very warm water near the Yucatan Channel. By Friday, the system will become more impacted by shear as it works farther east, putting an end to any potential strengthening. Regardless, the system will produce heavy rainfall in South Florida into the Bahamas.

A large non-tropical low pressure southeast of the Azores in the far eastern Atlantic could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics this week as it drifts westward over warm waters.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is expected to remain void of tropical development over the next 48 hours.



120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Late Afternoon Update On Invest 93-L
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, October 21, 2014 5:03 pm

A reconnaissance aircraft is investigating Invest 93L which is located in the southern Bay of Campeche. They did find that there is a small well-defined low pressure system associated with Invest 93L. In addition, reconnaissance aircraft also found winds near tropical storm force associated with the low pressure system. The National Hurricane Center opted not to upgrade it to a tropical cyclone as the thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 93L is not organized enough to be considered a tropical cyclone at this time.

Environmental conditions may become favorable enough for Invest 93L to organize and strengthen into a tropical depression or a tropical storm between later tonight and on Wednesday. Based on the latest model guidance, it looks fairly likely now that Invest 93L will track east-southeastward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday before it emerges in the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday. After Friday, the model guidance continues to have fairly different ideas on where this system may track and how strong it could get.

The GFS model guidance forecasts a fairly weak tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean by this weekend into early next week that eventually tracks back to the west towards the Yucatan Peninsula around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

The NAVGEM model guidance forecasts a track into the northwestern Caribbean where it strengthens into a strong tropical cyclone this weekend with the NAVGEM model forecasting a northward turn towards Florida during the early part of next week.

The European model guidance forecasts a meandering tropical system in the northwestern Caribbean from this weekend into early next week that is ultimately pulled northeastward across south Florida by about Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

The tropical cyclone model guidance consensus is for a track into the northwestern Caribbean with an eventual turn to the north towards the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

My late afternoon thoughts: It seems that the outcome of a system getting stuck in the northwestern Caribbean is one that is becoming more and more likely. So, I suspect that Invest 93L will continue tracking eastward and even east-southeastward and it would not surprise me to see it upgraded to a tropical depression or a tropical storm either later tonight or on Wednesday. All it is lacking right now is the deep thunderstorm activity for it to be considered a tropical cyclone and I think we will see this happen late tonight into Wednesday.

This eastward track will bring Invest 93L across the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday and everyone across the Yucatan Peninsula and across Belize should be aware that heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely from later Wednesday through Thursday.

Once Invest 93L gets into the northwestern Caribbean by Friday, I think that it will probably meander around in the northwestern Caribbean for several days from this weekend into at least early next week. At this point, there is a high degree of uncertainty on where Invest 93L may go and how strong it could get. There is the possibility that it will be ultimately picked up by a trough of low pressure and yanked northward out of the Caribbean and towards the Florida Peninsula by the middle part of next week. Now, there is just as equal of a chance that it will meander westward and be missed by the trough with a ultimate track back towards the Yucatan Peninsula by the middle to later parts of next week. As for potential strength in the northwestern Caribbean, I’m currently leaning towards the side of some strengthening to probably a tropical storm. At this point, I don’t see enough evidence to think that it will be a hurricane like what the NAVGEM model is suggesting. Cool, dry air will be just to the north of this system across much of the Gulf of Mexico and this should put a damper on robust strengthening.

Everyone across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the northwestern Caribbean, south Florida and the Florida Keys should continue to monitor the progress of Invest 93L. I continue to monitor Invest 93L closely and will continue to have updates as conditions warrant.

Invest 93L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery Link



Gulf of Mexico's 93L a Heavy Rain Threat; Ana Leaves Hawaii Alone
Jeff Masters

3:25 PM GMT on October 21, 2014

An area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche (93L) contains moisture and spin from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Trudy, which made landfall near Acapulco last weekend. 93L will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida Wednesday through Friday. Satellite loops show the low has a moderate degree of spin and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, but these thunderstorms are poorly organized, due to high wind shear of 30 knots. Mexican radar out of Altamira does show at least one spiral band had formed near the coast Tuesday morning, though. Water vapor satellite images show there is dry air from Mexico flowing eastwards over the western Gulf of Mexico, which is likely slowing development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, about 29.5C. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Wednesday - Friday, giving 93L a better chance to develop then. The Tuesday morning runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all showed support for some slow development of 93L this week. The storm is likely to move slowly eastwards across the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday and Wednesday, cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, move through the Florida Straits between Cuba and South Florida on Friday, then into the Bahamas on Saturday. Along its path, 3 - 6" of rain are are likely--with higher rainfall amounts to be expected if 93L ends up developing into a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 50%, respectively. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 93L Tuesday afternoon, but may be cancelled.

The prospects of 93L developing into a damaging hurricane are very low, and this storm is primarily a heavy rain threat. However, both the GFS and European models show the possibility that the trough of low pressure expected to pick up 93L and pull it northeastwards out to sea this weekend may leave behind an area of spin in the Western Caribbean early next week that would potentially have the capability to develop into a more dangerous tropical cyclone than 93L. It's too early to be sold on this model solution yet, but we should pay attention to the evolution of this storm system over the coming week.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 5-day period ending Sunday, October 26, 2014. 93L is predicted to bring rainfall amounts of up to five inches to South Florida. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Eastern Atlantic disturbance 92L little threat
A large non-tropical low pressure system spinning in the Eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Azores Islands (92L) brought heavy rains and flash flooding that killed five people in the Canary Islands on Sunday. This low is headed slowly westwards into a region with higher wind shear, and should not affect any more land areas. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Ana brushing the Hawaiian Islands at 7:55 pm EDT on Monday October 20, 2014. At the time, Ana had top winds of 65 mph, and high wind shear had allowed the surface circulation to be exposed to view. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Molokai radar for Hurricane Ana shows that extreme rains of 15+" fell just 20 miles off the coast from Honolulu.

Tropical Storm Ana headed away from Hawaii
Tropical Storm Ana is headed northwestwards away from the Hawaiian Islands; all watches and warnings have been dropped for the main Hawaiian Islands. Heavy rains of 4.72" fell in Honolulu from Ana, and widespread rain amounts of 4 - 7" were reported on Oahu. The island was very fortunate, though, since a large area of 15+" of rain fell just 20 miles offshore, according to radar estimates. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed that Ana was having trouble with high wind shear, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view. Ana will turn north and then northeast over the next few days and gradually weaken over cooler waters, without affecting any other land areas.


93L and Non-Tropical Partner to Bring Loads of Rain to Mexico, Cuba, Bahamas, and South Florida


CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)


Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image





Edited by Marty (Today at 06:47 PM)