Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: July 26, 2016

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, July 26, 2016

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.


Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

July 26, 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Tropical waves...
A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic from 09n-19n with axis near 22w, forecast to move at 10-15 kt within the next 24 hours. Scatterometer data show there is a low center associated with the wave with pressure of 1010 mb. Meteosat composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust engulfing the northern wave environment. A surge of moderate moist air from surface to 850 mb and divergent flow in the middle to upper levels support an elongated cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection from 10n-13n between 18w and 25w.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 09n-18n with axis near 34w, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA lpw imagery show moderate moist from the surface to 850 mb associated with this wave and global model guidance show a low at 700 mb coinciding with the wave axis location. The latest scatterometer pass show that the low is now reflected at the surface with a pressure of 1011 mb near 12n34w. Even though there is a divergent environment at the upper levels, the presence of abundant Saharan dry air and dust seems to hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean from 11n-22n with axis near 63w, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is associated with a surge of moderate moisture from the surface to 850 mb, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Isolated showers are possible across the Lesser Antilles and across the Basin E of 67e.

Caribbean Sea...

A broad inverted upper-level trough covers the basin W of 76w with an embedded W to E elongated low just S of Cuba that supports isolated heavy showers and tstms over the Southern Island adjacent waters and elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. A shortwave upper trough is across the central Caribbean where the remnants of a former surface trough support passing showers across Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough support scattered showers and tstms within 120 nm of the coast of northern Panama and Costa Rica. A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean where it generates isolated showers E of 67w. The wave also support scattered showers and tstms across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and mainly northern adjacent waters. See the tropical waves section above for further details. Scatterometer data depict fresh to strong winds in the south-Central Basin S of 14n and moderate trades elsewhere. Showers will continue across Puerto Rico and will increase across Hispaniola today as the wave continue to move westward.

Weather Underground Caribbean Forecast

Tropical cyclone development is not anticipated across the Atlantic Basin on Wednesday, while the tropics stay active in the eastern Pacific. Hurricane Georgette is located 1,030 nautical miles west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Georgette was upgraded to a category 3 hurricane over the past 24 hours, with maximum wind speeds at 120 mph (105 kts). The forecast track for Hurricane Georgette takes this system northwestward over the eastern Pacific. By Wednesday, this system is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm, with wind speeds ranging between 39 to 73 mph (33 to 64 kts). Georgette does not pose threats to any major land masses. Tropical Storm Frank is located 270 nautical miles west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank maintained tropical storm strength over the past 24 hours, with maximum wind speeds at 65 mph (55 kts). The forecast track for Tropical Storm Frank takes this system west northwestward over the eastern Pacific. By Wednesday night, Frank is expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression. Wind speeds will drop below 39 mph (33 kts). High surf will persist along the west coast of Baja California.


48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical development in the Atlantic Basin not likely through the upcoming weekend
Accuweather

7/26/2016 4:04:33 AM

The tropical Atlantic basin continues to be quiet with no tropical development expected for at least the next seven days.

Dry, dusty air remains the main inhibiting factor for development across much of the basin. As tropical waves move off Africa, they encounter this dry air which causes thunderstorms associated with these waves to weaken. The presence of this dry air and strong wind shear will remain in place through this week and into the upcoming weekend.



120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Tropical Wave Over Western Africa To Be Watched Closely This Coming Week & Beyond For Possible Tropical Development
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

July 24, 2016

A tropical wave now located over western Africa is expected to push off of the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic within the next day or two. This tropical wave is then forecast to push westward across the Atlantic throughout this coming week through next weekend and probably into next week as well. Even though I do not expect immediate tropical development from this tropical wave, I do think that this is a system that will need to be monitored closely once it gets into the western Atlantic around July 31st or August 1st where it may find itself in an environment that is more favorable for tropical development.

Some of the model guidance, especially the GFS model, forecasts this tropical wave may eventually become a tropical cyclone once it reaches the western Atlantic during the first week of August. From there, the GFS ensemble guidance has a range of possible tracks from a storm that moves into the Gulf of Mexico to a storm that tracks along the US East Coast. The GFS model guidance does have support from the European model and the UKMET model in that the European model guidance forecasts this system to be a strong tropical wave that tracks from just north of the Lesser Antilles by this coming Saturday (July 30th) to near the northern Bahamas and southeastern Florida by August 2nd. In addition to this, the European ensemble guidance is forecasting a 10 to 20 percent chance for tropical development in the area of the Bahamas during the first week of August. Also, it should be pointed out that the UKMET model forecasts a very strong tropical wave to be located just north of the Lesser Antilles by this coming Saturday.

Not all of the model guidance are forecasting or even hinting at tropical development with the Canadian model being the most notable model in forecasting no tropical development over the next week or so.

Here Are My Thoughts: The tropical wave that is about to push off of the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic is the one I have been mentioning to keep an eye on for at least a few days now. I am not expecting immediate tropical development from this tropical wave once it pushes into the eastern Atlantic as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday. The reason why I do not anticipate immediate tropical development is due to cooler ocean water temperatures and less than favorable environmental conditions in the eastern Atlantic.

I do think that this tropical wave may find a more favorable environment to develop once it gets west of 55 West Longitude around July 30th or 31st. Whether this tropical wave develops in the western Atlantic during the last weekend of July or during the first week of August remains to be seen, but I do think that it is a tropical wave that will need close monitoring.

In addition to this, the long range GFS model guidance forecasts another possible problem tropical wave to push off of the coast of Africa either on July 31st or August 1st and push due westward reaching the southern Lesser Antilles by August 5th and then crossing the Caribbean from east to west and potentially developing into a tropical cyclone between August 7th and August 9th. This may also be something to keep an eye on, but at this point it is just a model generated storm and I want to wait for additional supporting data before I start sitting up and taking notice of this possibility.

Elsewhere, much closer to the United States coastline – a upper level low pressure system has formed near central and south Florida. This upper level low pressure system is forecast to enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity across central and south Florida today before it rapidly tracks westward across the Gulf of Mexico during Monday and then inland into south Texas by Tuesday. No tropical development is expected from this tropical wave.




The Atlantic is still quiet
Jeff Masters

July 26, 2016

There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. A few recent runs of the GFS model have been highlighting the possible development this weekend of a tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa around July 27. The 00Z Monday run of the GFS ensemble forecast had about 30% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form this weekend or early next week midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions. There will be several impressive pulses of dry air and dust coming off the Sahara Desert over the next ten days, which will likely make it challenging for any tropical waves to develop (check out this animation of the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.) Less than 10% of the 50 members of the 00Z Monday European model forecast showed a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic over the next ten days. I'm not expecting to see anything form in the Atlantic until August.



CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)


Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image





Edited by Marty (Today at 05:48 AM)