Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: September 2, 2014

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Atlantic Tracking Map:

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, September 2, 2014

Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near latitude 22.6N and longitude 94.8W or about 210 miles East-Southeast of La Pesca, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph and Dolly is moving to the NW at 13 mph.

Elsewhere, in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on September 2, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form between the West Coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development through the weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Tropical Storm Dolly

at 400 am CDT...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 22.6 north...longitude 94.8 west. Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h...and this general motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon. On the forecast track...the center of Dolly will approach the coast of Mexico within the warning area by tonight...and move inland by Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours until Dolly makes landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles... 185 km...mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical Storm Dolly to Target Northeastern Mexico

9/2/2014 9:00:08 AM

Tropical Storm Dolly is located at 22.6 N, -94.8 W with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 60 mph

Tropical Storm Dolly formed early this morning, and on its current trajectory will impact the coast of Mexico late tonight or early on Wednesday morning. That said, only a narrow window exists for Dolly to strengthen further, so it is unlikely that we will be contending with a hurricane when the storm crosses the coastline somewhere near La Pesca.

Heavy rain will be the most prevalent threat over the next couple of days with several inches of rain expected from the Rio Grande Valley southward. The area of greatest threat will be in the foothills and higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental where mudslides and life-threatening flash flooding will be a concern today into Wednesday. Wind damage should be at a relative minimum as the strongest winds will remain offshore, and the zone in which the strongest winds are expected will be relatively narrow along and to the north of where the storm makes landfall.

Dolly will also create rough surf and rip currents from the central Texas coast southward along the coast of Mexico through the day on Wednesday. Some minor coastal over-wash is possible near and just to the north of where Dolly crosses the coastline.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, there are a few tropical waves, but none that pose an imminent threat for tropical development.

120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Tropical Depression #5 Has Strengthened Into Tropical Storm Dolly Over The Bay Of Campeche; Tropical Storm Dolly Is Expected To Track Inland Into Northeast Mexico Tonight, However, Everyone In South Texas Should Still Monitor Dolly
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, September 2, 2014 7:51 am

Tropical Storm Dolly:
8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:
23.0 North Latitude, 95.7 West Longitude or about 145 miles to the east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico.
Maximum Winds: 50 mph.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph.

Reconnaissance aircraft are finding that Dolly continues to strengthen this morning with maximum winds now near 50 mph. In addition, data from the reconnaissance flight as well as satellite data indicates that Dolly continues to reform further north and in fact it looks to be even further northwest than the 5 am EDT/4 am CDT NHC position fix. In fact, as of the 8 am EDT/7 am CDT, the center of Dolly is now located near 23.0 North Latitude and 95.7 West Longitude.

Dolly is tracking between west-northwest and northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph. The wind flow across the Gulf of Mexico is being controlled by a high pressure system that extends from the southeastern United States eastward to off of the US Southeast coast. This means that Dolly will continue tracking northwestward this morning before it turns more to the west-northwest by this afternoon and tonight. Based on this, it is expected that Dolly will make landfall along the coast of northeast Mexico about halfway between Tampico and Matamoros tonight as a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm.

At this point, Dolly is still expected to make landfall fairly far south from the Texas border. I do have concerns, however, that with a couple of more center reformations to the north that we could be looking at a even further north track that brings it much closer to south Texas. Even though a direct landfall is not expected on the Rio Grande Valley of south Texas, everyone across south Texas should closely monitor the progress of Dolly throughout today and tonight.

Dolly is expected to produce heavy rainfall with amounts of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts across much of eastern and northeast Mexico from today through Wednesday. Flash flooding and mud slides are likely across eastern and northeast Mexico.

As for the Rio Grande Valley of south Texas, Dolly is not expected to make a direct impact, however, it will bring some rain bands with locally heavy rainfall starting later today and lasting through Thursday. In addition, very rough seas with a significant risk for rip currents are expected along the coast of south Texas from today through Thursday.

Model Track Forecast For Dolly:
Courtesy of South Florida Water Management District
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Model Intensity Forecast For Dolly:
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Satellite Imagery Of Dolly:
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

Radar Imagery:

Additional Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible In The Western Caribbean & Western Gulf Of Mexico Next Week: It looks like the western Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico will be an area to continue to closely watch right through next week.

Some of the long range model guidance continues to forecast very stormy and disturbed weather from the southwestern and western Caribbean into the western Gulf of Mexico starting this coming weekend and continuing through next week. It looks quite possible that some part of this disturbed weather will try to spin up into a tropical cyclone next week over the Bay of Campeche or the western Gulf of Mexico.

It still looks quite possible that we may be in a pattern for the next 2 weeks or so that favors tropical cyclone formation in the western Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. This is something that will be monitored very closely.

Upper Level Low Pressure System Will Continue To Be Monitored As It Tracks From The Bahamas & South Florida This Week To The Northern Gulf Of Mexico By This Weekend: An upper level low pressure system continues to spin over the Bahamas this morning. Satellite imagery indicates that this upper level low continues to produce some shower and thunderstorm activity across the Bahamas, however, there is no strong or concentrated thunderstorm activity that is currently occurring near this upper level low pressure system.

This upper level low pressure system will continue to push across the Bahamas from today through tonight and then across the Florida Straits during Wednesday before moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. From there, this system will turn northward and track across the eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico from Friday through this upcoming weekend.

It is worthy to note that the UKMET and to a certain extent the Canadian model guidance forecasts that this system may try to spin up into some sort of a tropical cyclone this coming weekend as it is tracking across the northern Gulf of Mexico just offshore of the Florida Panhandle and the coasts of Alabama and Mississippi. At this point, only the UKMET and Canadian models show this spin-up with the other global models not showing this.

Upper level low pressure systems like what we have in the Bahamas take a long time to spin down to the surface. So, more than likely no tropical development will occur from this weather feature, however, it is something that is worthy to keep close watch on throughout this week into this upcoming weekend, especially with the fact that some of the models are now hinting at tropical development over the northern Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend.

Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico
Jeff Masters

2:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2014

Say hello to the Atlantic's fourth named storm of 2014--Tropical Storm Dolly, which formed Tuesday morning in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Radar loops out of Altamira, Mexico show Dolly's heavy thunderstorms were already beginning to move ashore over the coast of Mexico a few hundred miles south of the Texas border Tuesday morning, though the heaviest activity was still well offshore. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed the classic appearance of a tropical storm struggling with wind shear--a low level circulation center partially exposed to view, with the heavy thunderstorms limited to one side (the south side) by strong upper-level winds. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 30C (86F), but dry air to the north of Dolly was being driven into the center of the storm's circulation by strong upper-level winds from the north-northwest, keeping development slow. Dolly doesn't have long over water before it makes landfall on Wednesday morning, and likely will not have time to intensify into a hurricane, given the dry air to its north and continued moderate levels of wind shear expected to affect the storm. None of the Tuesday morning runs of the reliable hurricane intensity models showed Dolly becoming a hurricane. Heavy rain is the main threat of the storm, and Dolly's rains will be capable of generating dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the mountainous terrain of Mexico near and to the south of the landfall location. The heavy rain threat will be less to the north of the landfall location, due to the presence of dry air.

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Dolly.

Say Hello, Dolly--again!
Dolly's formation on September 2 comes more than a week later than the usual formation date of the Atlantic's fourth named storm, August 23. The 2014 version of Tropical Storm Dolly is the eighth appearance of a storm named Dolly in the Atlantic. Dolly made its first appearance in 1953 as hurricane that weakened before passing over Bermuda. Dolly's most recent appearance, as a 2008 Category 2 hurricane that hit near the Texas/Mexico border, was its most damaging--$1.5 billion in losses were recorded. This was not enough to get the name Dolly retired, though, and I expect we will see the name Dolly get recycled again in 2020. (The record number of appearances of a storm name for the Atlantic is ten, held by Arlene.)

New African tropical wave this weekend may develop
A tropical wave is expected to come off the coast of Africa on Thursday and move to the west at about 15 mph. This wave will be capable of bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday. Our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation all show development by Saturday of the wave, and in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively. The Tuesday morning runs of the GFS and European ensemble models favored the storm taking a more west-northwesterly track into the open ocean next week, with no long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands indicated.

Tropical Storm Norbert a potential threat to Baja Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Norbert is gathering strength a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Though Mexico's Baja Peninsula was not in NHC's cone of uncertainty for Friday, the 00Z Tuesday run of the reliable European model did show Norbert coming very close to Baja on Friday, and residents there should be alert to a possible shift in the predicted track of Norbert towards them in future NHC advisories. Satellite loops show that Norbert has plenty of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity was just offshore of Southwest Mexico on Tuesday morning. Norbert's formation on September 2 comes more than 5 weeks before the typical October 11 formation date of the season's fourteenth storm in the Eastern Pacific.

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Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 09:53 AM)