Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: May 27, 2012

Atlantic Tracking Map:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

8:00 am EDT on May 27, 2012

...Beryl heading toward the coast of the southeastern United States...reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating the storm...

at 800 am EDT...1200 UTC...the center of subtropical storm Beryl was located near latitude 30.3 north...longitude 78.9 west. Beryl is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph...17 km/h. A turn toward the west is expected later today...followed by a decrease in forward speed tonight and Monday. On the forecast track...the center of Beryl will approach the coast within the warning area today and make landfall tonight or early Monday. After landfall...Beryl is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and then turn northward over portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. After landfall...Beryl is expected to weaken to a depression on Monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km from the center. NOAA buoy 41012 located about 50 miles...80 km... east-northeast of St. Augustine Florida recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph...72 km/h.

An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 998 mb...29.47 inches.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Odd Track Brings Beryl to Florida, Georgia This Weekend
Accuweather

May 27, 2012; 6:03 AM ET

Subtropical Storm Beryl, the second named storm in the Atlantic Basin, will take a unique track towards the Southeast coastline this weekend. The weather will quickly deteriorate over portions of the Southeast through this evening, but there will be some good news.

Beryl Nears Georgia and Florida

Beryl remains a subtropical storm, which has some tropical characteristics, but still is not completely a tropical storm. Over the next 12 hours or so, we will see Beryl trying to transition into a true tropical storm as it spins off the northern Florida coast. Recent aircraft observations of Beryl show the storm remaining a weak tropical system, though as Beryl does spin over the warm Gulf Stream, minor strengthening is possible today. Currently, Beryl is only bringing rough surf to the Southeast coast, but as the storm moves closer to land today, we will start to see some of the rain and wind with the storm affect land. Gusty bands of rain will begin to affect land this morning providing wind gusts of 30-40 mph, but the stronger sustained winds will not be felt until later this afternoon and evening when 40- to 60-mph winds are possible along the northern Florida and southern Georgia coastline. A large area of 4-8 inches of rain is expected across northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia from today through Monday. While the region desperately needs rainfall, this much rain will likely cause flooding.

Model agreement is coming into line for early next week as Beryl is expected to stall across northern Florida on Monday, then turn to the northeast on Tuesday. From Tuesday to Wednesday, Beryl will track along the Carolina coast as it gains speed moving to the northeast. There is the possibility for some strengthening of the storm along the Carolina coast which will mean wet and windy conditions.

Elsewhere, no other tropical systems are expected to develop over the next 48-72 hours. The Atlantic tropical season officially begins on June 1.

TRACK AND LANDFALL

Beryl formed off the Southeast coast late Friday evening as a subtropical storm. A subtropical storm is a storm system that has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski explained Friday.

Through today, Beryl will track west-southwestward before nearing the Georgia and Florida coast by this evening.

"The track of Beryl is quite rare," said Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

"Tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic at the latitude of Beryl typically have a northward component to their movement, not southward," Pydynowski added.

Beryl is expected to make landfall early this evening near Jacksonville, Fla.

"A direct hit on Jacksonville is rare," stressed Pydynowski. "Typically, tropical storms and hurricanes approach Jacksonville from the south, before eventually curving northeastward and bypassing the city to the east."

As Beryl nears the coast, the storm will be crossing over warm water, which may support some additional strengthening, but within tropical storm status.

Intensification into a hurricane is unlikely.

Early next week, Beryl is expected to meander over the Southeast, prompting more drenching downpours in the region.

Impacts from Beryl will be mostly heavy rainfall of 3-6 inches along and inland from the Georgia coast to northern Florida. Beryl will move far enough inland to bring this heavier rainfall to parts of northern Florida and far southeast Georgia Sunday night into Monday. There is the chance the storm could stall for an extended period of time which could produce much heavier rainfall. Winds of 50-60 mph are expected along and near where Beryl makes landfall late Sunday or Sunday evening. Those winds will subside somewhat once the storm moves inland. However, Beryl could remain a tropical storm into Monday.

Long range computer forecasts suggest two possible scenarios for Beryl beyond Monday. Either the storm will fall apart over northern Florida and southeast Georgia or will be forced back to the east northeast and over water. The second scenario is starting to show up on more computer models. If this second scenario becomes more of the real option the storm will move back over water and move north northeast along the Carolina coast Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This could impact coastal sections of South and North Carolina with wind and rain.

Elsewhere, no other tropical systems are expected to develop over the next 48-72 hours. The Atlantic tropical season officially begins on June 1.

Beryl Expected To Impact Northeastern Florida & Southeastern Georgia From This Afternoon Through Tonight
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Sunday, May 27, 2012 9:28 am

Subtropical Storm Beryl:
Beryl is still a subtropical storm this morning, however, I still think that it will become a fully tropical storm before coming ashore in northeastern Florida this evening. In terms of weather conditions, this will not really matter. Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Beryl have found a central pressure of 998 millibars and maximum winds somewhere between 55 and 60 mph. Additionally, a buoy well offshore of Saint Augustine reported 45 mph wind gusts.

As for a position and track, reconnaissance fixes and high resolution satellite loops show that Beryl is located at Latitude 30.25 North Latitude, 78.82 West Longitude or 170 miles due east of Jacksonville, Florida. It is also moving just about due west now. At this point, Beryl is expected to track almost due west and come ashore very close to Jacksonville this evening. Once onshore, Beryl will track into northern Florida tonight into Monday before tracking back offshore of the coast of South Carolina by Tuesday and restrengthen into a tropical storm.

For the forecast track & intensity of Beryl today into tonight, I will be primarily using satellite, radar and the HRRR high resolution mesoscale model. Remember, the HRRR model did a fantastic job catching the intensification of Alberto a little over a week ago.

So, the HRRR model is forecasting that the radar presentation of Beryl will improve as the day progresses, especially this afternoon, and this indicates to me that it may still transition into a fully tropical storm before coming ashore in northeastern Florida this evening. Additionally, this improvement in the radar presentation this afternoon also may be an indicator of intensification as Beryl could take advantage of the shape of the southeast Georgia/northeast Florida coastline and spin up and intensify. In fact, the HRRR model forecasts that Beryl will be a 60 to 70 mph tropical storm by late this afternoon and this evening.

Now, for the expected impacts across southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida:
Wind Impact: Tropical storm force winds will begin to affect the immediate coastline of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by mid to late afternoon and spread inland up to 30 to 40 miles this evening. The peak or height of the storm is expected from about 5 to 7 pm this evening until about midnight tonight along the immediate coast and from about 7 to 8 pm this evening until 2 to 3 am tonight further inland. I fully expect to see wind gusts of 60 mph across northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia as some of the stronger feeder bands come ashore later this afternoon into tonight.

Seas & Riptide Threat: Rough seas are expected from coastal North Carolina to Florida’s east coast from today through Monday. Already, multiple people have been pulled out of the water due to the riptides. Please stay out of the water! Additionally, boating is not recommended from today through Monday. Many beaches are closed across southeastern Georgia and eastern Florida.

Rainfall: The rain intensity is expected to increase as the day progresses and an overall rainfall of 2 to 5 inches are expected across much of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia from today through Monday. Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 7 inches are possible from Jacksonville northeastward to Brunswick.

Tornado Threat: The increasing low-level wind field will combine with increasing shear across coastal sections of northeast Florida and southeastern Georgia by this afternoon. This combination will lead to rotating thunderstorms within the rainbands surrounding Beryl. These rotating thunderstorms may put down isolated spin-up tornadoes or waterspouts.

Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
Jeff Masters

4:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2012

The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.

The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.


Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.


Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

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