Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: November 30, 2015
(Hit "reload page" from your browser's VIEW menu to be sure you are reading the latest information...)
Atlantic Tracking Map:
(Click the arrow down on the right side nest to "Legends" to remove the right column ads and settings, thus viewing the whole map)
Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
3:00 AM in Belize, November 30, 2015
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
November 30, 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Weather Discussion
...From the central and western sections of the Atlantic
Ocean...across the Bahamas and Cuba...into the western sections
of the Caribbean Sea...including crossing Hispaniola...
A middle level to upper level trough is along 26n74w...to a
19n77w cyclonic circulation center that is between the
southeastern coast of Cuba and Jamaica...to eastern Panama...and
the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of
uraba of Colombia. Large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean to the west of 63w. Large-scale upper
level cyclonic wind flow also covers the entire Caribbean Sea.
A surface trough is along 31n63w 26n67w...across central
Hispaniola...to the coast of Colombia near 12n74w. Convective
precipitation...in the Caribbean Sea...isolated moderate from
12n to 20n between 65w and 80w...including across the area from
southeastern Cuba to Hispaniola to Puerto Rico. Rainshowers are
possible also from 12n southward from 80wwestward...and in
Panama...Costa Rica...and Nicaragua...and from 14n northward
from 80w westward. In the Atlantic Ocean...widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 20n to 26n between 64w and 76w.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 31n northward between
51w and 54w. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 26n to 31n
between 50w and 65w. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for
the period ending at 30/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American
temperature and precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01
knhc...is 0.89 in Bermuda.
...The rest of the Caribbean Sea...
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean
600 mb to 800 mb northeasterly wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea from the trough westward.
A surface trough is along 09n74w to 06n77w in Colombia to 03n80w
in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation...no
significant deep convective precipitation is in the coastal
waters of the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
30/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American temperature and
precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01 knhc...are 0.05 in
Curacao...and 0.02 in Guadeloupe.
48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
Tropical Development Across the Atlantic Basin Not Likely for the Rest of the Season
11/29/2015 7:15:00 PM
Tropical development is not expected across the Atlantic Basin for the rest of the 2015 hurricane season which comes to an end on Monday, Nov. 30.
120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
What Could The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Be Like? – A First Very Preliminary Look
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
November 29, 2015
I wanted to give you my ideas on what the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season may be like based on the various current and forecast factors.
Let’s first start out with the current and forecast ENSO state:
Currently, we are well within El Nino conditions and this El Nino is forecast to continue through this entire winter into spring, 2016. Some of the forecast guidance suggests that the ENSO state will evolve into a neutral state by Summer, 2016 and possibly a La Nina towards Autumn, 2016. It should be pointed out that not all of the guidance suggests this and that some of the guidance suggests that El Nino conditions will remain in place through much of 2016.
There are two previous El Nino’s that are similar to this one – the first is the 1982 strong El Nino and the second is the strong El Nino of 1997. The difference between these two El Nino’s were that the 1982-83 El Nino lasted longer (well through 1983) while the 1997-98 El Nino flipped fairly quickly into La Nina conditions during 1998. This difference had large implications on each of those Hurricane seasons. The long lasting El Nino of 1982-83 led to a inactive 1983 hurricane season, however, with that said, there were 2 Gulf of Mexico hurricanes in 1983 as well as a US East Coast landfall of a tropical storm. On the other hand, the El Nino of the winter of 1997-98 flipped quickly into a La Nina during the summer and autumn of 1998. This led to a very active 1998 Atlantic Hurricane Season with multiple landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and along the US East Coast.
Based on the latest data, I think that we will cool down from the current strong El Nino conditions to a neutral ENSO state during the Spring of 2016 and very possibly into a La Nina during either the Summer or Autumn of 2016.
Forecast Environmental Conditions During The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season: The extremely long range CFS model is forecasting lower than average wind shear across parts of the Gulf of Mexico and much of the Caribbean during June, July and August of 2016. On the other hand, the CanSIPS very long range model guidance forecasts near average amounts of wind shear across the entire Atlantic Basin during the 2016 Hurricane Season. The exception to this is during June into part of July when the CanSIPS model is forecasting above average amounts of wind shear across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
Turning to the forecast surface barometric pressures during the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, there is a pretty large difference between the CFS and the CanSIPS model guidance. The CFS model is forecasting lower than average barometric pressures across much of the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during June, July and August of 2016. The CanSIPS model guidance, on the other hand, is forecasting above average surface barometric pressures across much of the Atlantic Basin during the 2016 Hurricane Season. The reason why this large difference is important is because if we do see lower than average barometric pressures across the Atlantic like the CanSIPS model is suggesting, then we would see a higher than average likelihood of robust thunderstorm development leading to low pressure development and a higher chance for tropical development. On the other hand, higher than average barometric pressures would squash thunderstorm development leading to lower chances for tropical development.
Finally, the forecast of sea surface temperatures show both the CFS and CanSIPS model guidance are pointing towards warmer than average sea surface temperatures across the entire Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico throughout the entire period from June to November, 2016. This means that there will be plenty of ocean water heat available to help any tropical disturbances to grow into tropical cyclones; that is if the wind shear environment is favorable for development.
Here Are My First Very Preliminary Thoughts On The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season: I think that there is 3 possible scenarios for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The first possible scenario is that it could be an extremely active season due to favorable wind shear conditions and warmer than average ocean waters across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This would be very different than this season where we saw unfavorable environmental conditions across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico throughout much of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This possible extremely active season would likely be very similar to the 1998 and 2010 Hurricane Seasons with upwards of 15 to 20 named storms, up to 12 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 3 to 5 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. Another cause for this first possible scenario is the idea that the current El Nino state quickly transforms into a La Nina by summer of 2016 leading to a global change in atmospheric conditions which would lead to a favorable to very favorable environment for tropical cyclone development across the Atlantic Basin.
The second possible scenario is that we could end up seeing a very inactive season in terms of the number of named storms much like what we saw in 1983. This would be caused by a much slower transformation from El Nino conditions with these unfavorable conditions lasting into much of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Should this happen, we would see unfavorable conditions across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, more so than what we saw during this season. A season like this would yield 5 named storms with 2 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 1 of those hurricanes becoming a major hurricane. It should be pointed out that if this ends up being a very inactive season, we could still see landfalling tropical storms/hurricanes on the US Coast. The 1983 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which was a very inactive one, still saw 2 Gulf of Mexico hurricanes and a tropical storm landfall on the US East Coast.
The third possible scenario is for a “normal” season in terms of the number of named storms with most of the activity occurring from September 15th to November 1st. The reason for this third possible scenario is that there is the possibility for a slower transition from El Nino conditions which would potentially lead to a globally unfavorable environment state in terms of Atlantic tropical development chances early in the season. This would then potentially turn around later in the season as we transition into a La Nina state.
At This Point, My Thinking Is That the first possible scenario of an extremely active season seems to be the most likely right now with a season very much like the 1998 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This means that potentially the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico could be quite active, which is a huge change from what we have seen over the last couple of seasons. In fact, much like the 1998 Atlantic Hurricane Season, it would not surprise me, at this point, to see a hyperactive period of tropical storm/hurricane development between August 15th and October 1st during the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The third possible scenario of a “normal”, but late starting Hurricane Season is the second most likely scenario with most of the activity occurring between mid-September and early November thanks to a lingering El Nino that doesn’t fade into La Nina conditions until late 2016.
What this means right now for all of you is that it may not be a bad idea to make some preparations now in the off season, including:
- If you are thinking of putting your house up on stilts to avoid flood damage, do it now. If you wait until spring or summer of 2016, it may be too late to hire construction crews to raise your home.
- Review your flood and wind insurance protection and make sure you are adequately covered.
- As always, restock your hurricane preparedness kit with items that may need to be replaced. Also, those kits can be used for any type of severe weather, so it’s good to always have it on hand in case of a weather emergency.
Finally, I want to emphasize that these are preliminary thoughts and that this forecast will likely change in the coming months. I will be monitoring all of the factors leading up to whether the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be active or in active and will keep you updated between now and June 1st, 2016.
High Wind Shear Rips Apart Tropical Storm Sandra
3:24 PM GMT on November 28, 2015
Something to give thanks for this holiday weekend: Tropical Storm Sandra was shredded apart by 50 knots of wind shear early Saturday morning before the storm could make landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico, ending the reign of this most unusual late-season storm. Earlier in the week, record-warm ocean waters helped Sandra set the record for the latest major hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere, as the storm maintained at least Category 3 strength from 21 UTC November 25 through 03 UTC November 27 (previous record: an unnamed Atlantic hurricane in 1934 that held on to Category 3 status until 00 UTC November 24.) When Sandra peaked as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on November 26, it became the latest Category 4 storm ever observed in either the Eastern Pacific (previous record: Hurricane Kenneth on November 22, 2011) or the Atlantic (previous record: "Wrong Way" Lenny on November 18, 1999.) Prior to Sandra, the strongest East Pacific hurricane so late in the year was 1983’s Winnie, which topped out on December 6 at 90 mph winds. Sandra was also the first major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere that has ever been observed on Thanksgiving Day. Sandra was the record-shattering 25th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere in 2015. According to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach's Twitter feed, the previous record was eighteen such storms in 1997 and 2004.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Sandra taken at approximately 2 pm EST November 27, 2015. At the time, Sandra was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds, and was rapidly being shredded apart by high wind shear. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Projected 3-day precipitation totals (rain and melted snow/sleet) for the period from 7 am EST Saturday, November 28, through Tuesday, December 1.
Moisture associated with Sandra fuels heavy rain event over Texas
Moisture streaming ahead of Sandra from the tropical Eastern Pacific into the Southern U.S. contributed to a heavy rainfall event over Texas and Oklahoma on Thursday and Friday, and this tropical moisture will continue to fuel heavy rains across portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee during the remainder of the holiday weekend. The rain of 3.45" that fell Friday on Dallas-Fort Worth gave them their wettest November calendar day on record, their wettest November on record (7.99" so far, previous record 7.94" in 1918), their wettest fall on record (now up to 19.95"), and their wettest year on record (now 56.91", previous record 53.54" set in 1991.) Thanks go to TWC's Michael Palmer for these stats.
CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)
Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image