Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: August 2, 2015

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, August 2, 2015

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

August 2, 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Special features...
Gale Warning is in effect along the coast of Colombia from 11n to 13n between 74w and 77w. Associated seas range from 9 to 12 ft. Gale-force winds are forecast to last until Sunday evening. Please read the High Seas Forecast...miahsfat2/ fznt02 knhc...and the offshore forecast...miaoffnt3/fznt23 knhc...for more details. Tropical waves...
A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean Sea. Its axis is near 62w and moves W at 20 kt within a 24 hour period. The total precipitable water imagery show shallow moisture associated with the wave. A diffluent wind environment over the NE basin generated by an upper low centered near 17n65w and the western periphery of a broad ridge over the central Atlc support scattered to isolated showers and tstms from 15n to 26n between 60w and 65w.

A tropical wave is crossing Central America with axis near 89w...moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The total precipitable water imagery shows the wave is associated with moderate moisture. A diffluent wind environment aloft over Honduras coastal waters supports scattered moderate convection and tstms from 15n to 18n W of 83w.

Discussion, Caribbean Sea...
A tropical wave is crossing Central America with axis extending northward to Belize. A diffluent wind environment aloft over the NW Caribbean along with moderate moisture associated with the wave support scattered moderate convection and tstms on Honduras coastal waters. See tropical waves section above for more details. Shallow moisture over the NW Caribbean along with diffluence in the upper levels being generated by the ridge in the Gulf of Mexico and a low over the SW N Atlc support isolated showers and tstms N of 17n between 74w and 81w. Dry air dominates across the central and se basin as indicated by SSMI tpw and water vapor imagery...this along with strong deep layer wind shear hinder convection development at this time. A tight pressure gradient built between W Atlc high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia supporting NE to E winds of 25 to 35 kt gale-force winds are forecast through this evening. See special features section for details. A tropical wave is entering the far E basin and enhances scattered to isolated showers over the NE Caribbean including Puerto Rico. This tropical wave is forecast to move across Hispaniola Monday night.

48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical Development Unlikely Across Atlantic

8/2/2015 3:59:33 AM

There are no organized tropical features across the Atlantic Basin at this time. A weak low pressure center that is currently several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to move westward and latest satellite imagery shows this area of disturbed weather is poorly organized. It is moving through an area of dry, stable air that is preventing consistent thunderstorm development.

Despite being in a low shear environment and over reasonably warm sea-surface temperatures, the dry, stable air continues to prevent further development. As the system moves farther west it will encounter deeper dry and stable air. As a result we are not expecting this feature to develop any further through at least the middle of the week.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean will remain fairly quiet through the weekend and through at least the first half of next week.

120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Sunday Morning Updates On The Northeast Gulf Of Mexico & On Hurricane Guillermo Which Continues To Track Towards Hawaii
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Sunday, August 2, 2015 9:31 am

Northeast Gulf Of Mexico Update: Low pressure that was located south of Apalachicola, Florida last night seems to be coming ashore this morning. Weather observations and buoy reports indicate that the barometric pressure did fall a bit last night to 1009 millibars and there were wind gusts to 25 to 30 mph at Clearwater Beach. Since this low pressure system is now coming ashore, it is no longer expected to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm. It should be noted that if this low pressure system had another 6 to 12 hours over water, it could have easily continued to spin up into a tropical depression.

With this first low pressure system coming ashore, I am now monitoring an area of expanding convection located over the northeast Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles or so to the west of Tampa or around 28 North Latitude and 85-86 West Longitude. Visible satellite loops reveals that a circulation at the mid levels of the atmosphere may be forming on the northeast side of the convection and it is possible that we will see a new surface low pressure system form today if the convection and circulation maintains itself. At this point, it is going to be a wait and see type thing with this new convection and none of the model guidance forecasts anything to come of it. In addition, analysis reveals that there is still some shear occurring across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and it seems that every time an area of convection forms around a circulation, that convection is pushed to the south causing the circulation to weaken and dissipate.

Here Are My Thoughts: I am still not expecting tropical development from the area of convection in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. With that said, it is something to keep a very close eye on throughout today, especially if it can maintain itself and start to organize. This entire system, including the low pressure system coming ashore and the new convection in the northeast Gulf of Mexico will be fully ashore sometime on Monday and will completely pull out of the area by Tuesday.

Ridiculous amounts of moisture remain in place from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to across the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend and western Florida. This means that all of this moisture will be pulled across parts of the western and northern Florida Peninsula today through Monday. Some areas of the Big Bend and west-central Florida Peninsula will need boats to get around because of the amounts of additional rainfall that are expected. This heavy rainfall will also spread across northern and northeast Florida during Monday before finally coming to an end by Tuesday. Flooding is already occurring across many areas of the Big Bend and west-central Florida from just north of Tampa northward to about Cross City and this additional heavy rainfall today through Monday could be extremely disastrous in these areas.

Hurricane Guillermo Update(Potential Hawaii Threat):

Hurricane Guillermo continues to track west-northwestward this morning and is still a threat to the entire Hawaiian Island chain around Wednesday into Thursday. Even though it is expected that Guillermo will weaken to a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Hawaiian Islands, it is possible that all of the islands in Hawaii will take a direct hit from this storm. This means that Honolulu will see much rougher conditions than what occurred last year when Hurricane Ana passed offshore.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should keep a very close eye on the progress of Guillermo as it could be an impact to all of the Hawaiian Islands as soon as Wednesday. In addition, you may also want to start reviewing your hurricane safety rules now before watches and warnings are posted.

Model Track Forecast For Guillermo:
Courtesy of South Florida Water Management District

Satellite Imagery Of Guillermo:
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

Invest 94L shows little sign of strengthening
Jeff Masters

5:54 PM GMT on July 31, 2015

Invest 94L is still identifiable, but not very impressive, in the central North Atlantic. The loosely organized system was located around 12.5N, 32.2W at 8:00 am EDT Friday, moving west at about 15 mph. The circulation around 94L is highly elongated, with upper-level outflow evident but dry air invading the storm, leaving it with only weak shower and thunderstorm activity. The SHIPS statistical model brings 94L to moderate tropical-storm strength in the next several days, but none of the most reliable dynamical models for tropical cyclone formation indicate any substantial development of 94L, and NHC has lowered its five-day odds of development from 30% to 10%. Even if 94L managed to get a new lease on life in the central Atlantic, it would face largely hostile conditions as it continued west into the very high wind shear present across the Caribbean.

Figure 4. Infrared satellite image of Invest 94L (located at center left). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 07:47 AM)