Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: July 24, 2014

Atlantic Tracking Map:

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, July 24, 2014

Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on July 24, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic Quiet After Depression Two

7/24/2014 10:07:19 AM

The remnant circulation of what was Depression Two, containing some wind and showers, is currently moving west across the Lesser Antilles. This will bring islands in the central Lesser Antilles gusty heavy showery rainfall into Thursday morning and will eventually bring showers to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Thursday and Thursday night then to Hispaniola on Friday. The system is not expected to re-generate.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin, a tropical wave is bringing a cluster of thunderstorms to an area around 45 west and straddling 10 north, and is the closest thing to an area of concern across the basin. The rest of the Atlantic basin looks relatively quiet and we see no support for development through the next five to seven days.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Tropical Depression #2 Is Holding On & Will Impact The Islands Of Guadeloupe, Dominica & Martinique In The Central Lesser Antilles Tonight Through Thursday
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Wednesday, July 23, 2014 7:57 am

Tropical Depression #2:
5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:
13.9 North Latitude, 53.2 West Longitude or about 550 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 20 mph.

Tropical Depression #2 continues to maintain a small area of convection, however, it seems that this convection isn’t organized. In addition, satellite images over the last couple of hours indicates that the convection has diminished some over the last couple of hours. The environment ahead of Tropical Depression #2 is expected to become quite hostile over the next couple of days due to increasing amounts of wind shear and dry air once it reaches the Lesser Antilles and the far eastern Caribbean. The model guidance continues to indicate that Tropical Depression #2 will weaken into a trough of low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.

For those of you across the islands of Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique in the central Lesser Antilles, this weather system will bring you gusty winds with wind gusts of up to 40 mph, locally heavy rainfall with amounts of up to 2 to 4 inches and rough seas starting late tonight and continuing through all day Thursday.

During Thursday night and Friday the remnants of Tropical Depression #2 will pass near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico bringing the possibility of gusty winds and locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. By Friday night into Saturday, the remnants of Tropical Depression #2 will track across Hispaniola bringing showers and thunderstorms to the island.

Model Track Forecast For TD #2:
Courtesy of South Florida Water Management District
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Model Intensity Forecast For TD #2:
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Satellite Imagery Of TD #2:
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

Elsewhere: I am monitoring a couple of other areas of potential interest. The first is a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 37 West Longitude. Even though thunderstorm activity has been flaring from time to time, however, the current environment around this tropical wave is barely favorable for any sort of development due to wind shear values of 20 knots. Closer analysis reveals that the environment may become more favorable for development in the central Atlantic between 45 and 60 West Longitude as wind shear values decrease to 10 knots along with what looks like could be a moister atmosphere. This tropical wave will be monitored closely, especially once it reaches and tracks to the west of 45 West Longitude starting on Thursday and reaching the Lesser Antilles by Friday. None of the model guidance is forecasting any sort of tropical development from this tropical wave, but given that this is another small disturbance, it is possible that the models may not be “seeing” the system.

Second: The last couple of runs of the European model and to some extent the Canadian model is showing the potential for an area of low pressure forming to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by about Thursday and Friday of next week. This potential low pressure system may track into the area of the Bahamas and off of the US Southeast coast by next weekend where the weather pattern may support some tropical mischief. This pattern, which looks to include a large trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will produce a favorable environment off of the US Southeast coast next week into next weekend. It should be pointed out that the European model guidance seems to be quite good in picking out patterns that leads to the development of tropical cyclones; in fact, it was the European model that first showed the potential for Arthur to develop off of the US Southeast coast. This is something that I will be monitoring and I will keep you updated.

Jeff Masters

3:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2014

Very small Tropical Depression #2 is located near 12.5N / 47.8W or about 700NM east of the CARIB, moving westward (285ᵒ) at 16Kts. With the system embedded in deep easterlies, and convection remaining relatively weak, this trajectory should continue for the next 48-72 hrs.

Fig 3: TD#2 remains quite small, with a general 'circulation' diameter estimated at about 200NM (This estimate is based on VIS and microwave imagery shown in Fig 4 below.)

Despite relatively low wind shear (approximately near 10Kts), there has been very little change in the overall size and structure of TD#2 during the last 24 hours. In addition, the small cyclone will soon begin encountering significantly drier air, and as the system approaches the eastern CARIB Thursday, it is expected to encounter stronger wind shear which is likely (though not with 100% certainty) to prevent any significant intensification despite warmer SST’s that will support stronger convection. In addition, the shear may be strong enough to cause the system to open up into a wave.

Fig 4: The 85Ghz microwave image continues to support a closed low or mid-Level circulation which has been more difficult to locate on VIS or IR imagery than it was yesterday.

The large scale global models still cannot resolve/initialize this small system, but the specialized Tropical Cyclone models, initialized at 12Z, forecast the storm to continue tracking towards the CARIB, reaching the eastern CARIB late on Thursday. Interestingly, a few of the dynamical models show a slow intensification of the system to Tropical Storm intensity – though the most reliable models, and the Official NHC forecast, call for dissipation in 48-60 hours

Fig 5 & 6: The Early 12Z cycle model runs are generally a bit more aggressive in developing TD#2 into a Tropical Storm compared to yesterday's runs – but the most reliable dynamic models continue to forecast dissipation and admittedly have a high probability of verifying.

Fig 7: The official NHC Track forecast is in excellent agreement with the model consensus, but calls for dissipation prior to the system reaching the CARIB.

ELSEWHERE in the Atlantic, there are 2 Tropical Waves over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic that have brought along more ‘moisture laden air’ (versus dry, Saharan air). In addition, there are now several somewhat stronger appearing Tropical waves upstream over Africa (only 2 are shown in Fig 9) that will reach the Atlantic later this week and early next week, with one of these systems having a significantly higher potential for development next week.

Fig 8: Aside from TD#2, only 2 significant Tropical Waves are present over the eastern most Atlantic, and they are entangled in the African Monsoonal TROF and/or ITCZ.

Fig 9: Tropical Waves over Africa have become somewhat stronger over the past week, with the easternmost one in the above image showing a mid-level 'turning' on imagery loops.

In the meantime, however, no new tropical cyclone formation is expected during the remainder of the week.

The next update will be Wednesday afternoon unless conditions in the Atlantic warrant an earlier posting.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 05:25 AM)