Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: September 1, 2014

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Atlantic Tracking Map:

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, September 1, 2014

A broad area of low pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave over the Yucatan peninsula and is forecast to move over the waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche early tomorrow. This system has the potential to become a tropical depression while it moves west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Elsewhere, in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on September 1, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and development of a tropical depression will be possible when the center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche later today and into Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern Mainland Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical Development Possible Later Today

9/1/2014 12:24:36 PM

For the first day of September, things across the Atlantic Basin are rather quiet with dry air over the eastern Atlantic choking off any waves which exit the African coast. That said, one feature of note does exist in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge over the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Organization into a tropical depression or tropical storm is possible as conditions are at least moderately favorable for development. Given the relatively short period of time in which this feature will be over the water, it is unlikely that this system will wrap up into a powerful hurricane (should it develop at all). At the very least, this disturbance will bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms to South Texas and northern Mexico toward the middle of the week.

In the central and eastern Atlantic there are a few clusters of thunderstorms that need to be monitored, but again, at this point there is no big concern for development.

120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Invest 99L Has A Good Chance Of Becoming A Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Dolly In The Bay Of Campeche Between This Afternoon & Tuesday & Track Inland Over Northeast Mexico On Wednesday
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Monday, September 1, 2014 8:42 am

Invest 99L Located Over The Bay Of Campeche: An area of low pressure, Invest 99L, is now just tracking off of the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern part of the Bay of Campeche this morning. Satellite imagery this morning showed some deep thunderstorm activity that is occurring across the Yucatan Peninsula and this activity should push into the Bay of Campeche as we get into this afternoon.

It is expected that Invest 99L will track across the Bay of Campeche and then into part of the western Gulf of Mexico from today through Tuesday. Environmental conditions across the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico are favorable for development, including wind shear values of between 10 and 20 knots, plenty of moisture available and very warm ocean waters. It appears that Invest 99L will have a 36 to 48 hour window of opportunity to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

My thoughts are that the combination of the favorable environmental conditions and the shape of the coastline along the southern edge of the Bay of Campeche will cause Invest 99L spin up into a tropical cyclone within the next couple of days. In fact, I think as of this morning there is about a 75 percent chance that we will see Invest 99L develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Dolly between this afternoon and Tuesday.

The most likely track for this potential tropical storm is towards the west-northwest and northwest and it is possible that this system will make landfall near or just north of Tampico, Mexico during Wednesday as a 45 to 60 mph tropical storm. Even though this system is currently expected to track inland near or just north of Tampico, it will bring heavy rainfall with a flash flood potential from northeast Mexico northward through the Rio Grande Valley of south Texas starting on Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday and Thursday.

Invest 99L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Additional Tropical Development Possible In The Western Caribbean & Western Gulf Of Mexico Next Week: It looks like the western Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico will be an area to continue to closely watch even after Invest 99L/Dolly moves inland on Wednesday.

Many of the longer range guidance are indicating that a new tropical disturbance may develop very near the coast of Belize late this weekend into early next week. This disturbance has the potential to lift northward into the Bay of Campeche by the middle part of next week where it could meander around for several days late next week.

As I mentioned yesterday, it appears that we may be in a pattern for the next 2 weeks or so that favor western Caribbean and western Gulf of Mexico disturbances that try to develop into tropical cyclones and it is something that merits close watching.

Upper Level Low Pressure System Will Be Monitored As It Tracks Across The Bahamas & Near South Florida This Week: An upper level low pressure system is spinning over the southeastern Bahamas this morning. Satellite imagery indicates that this upper level low continues to produce some shower and thunderstorm activity, however, there is no strong or concentrated thunderstorm activity that is currently occurring near this upper level low pressure system.

This upper level low pressure system will push across the Bahamas from today to about Wednesday. By Wednesday night and Thursday, the upper level low pressure system is forecast to be located near south Florida. Even though I will be keeping close tabs on this upper level low, these systems take quite a long time to spin down to the surface. More than likely, no tropical development will occur from this weather feature, however, it is something that is worthy to keep close watch on throughout this week.

What this upper level low pressure system will produce is widespread showers and thunderstorms with a heavy rainfall potential across the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the Florida Peninsula, especially south Florida, stormier weather is expected starting on Wednesday and Thursday and continuing through Friday. This means that widespread thunderstorms, some of which will be strong in intensity, are expected beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday across much of the Florida Peninsula. A heavy rainfall potential is also expected from the widespread thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula from Wednesday through Friday.

Invest 99L Organizing Over Gulf of Mexico
Jeff Masters

2:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2014

The center of a broad area of low pressure associated with tropical wave 99L is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, and the disturbance is growing more organized as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph. Heavy rains are falling over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Bay of Campeche coast, and radar loops out of Sabancuy, Mexico show a pronounced rotation to the echoes. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity was increasing in intensity and organization, with a number of low-level spiral bands beginning to form. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 30C (86F), the atmosphere was moist, and wind shear was moderate, 15 - 20 knots. These conditions are favorable for development. The 8 am Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions will remain favorable for development over Bay of Campeche through Thursday, with moderate wind shear, a moist atmosphere, and warm SSTs of 30C (86F.) None of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation showed 99L developing into Tropical Storm Dolly in their Monday morning runs. However, I expect that 99L will be at least a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day development odds into a tropical cyclone of 60% (a tropical cyclone is a generic term for all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.) The storm should continue to track to the west-northwest or northwest, with landfall occurring on the Mexican coast several hundred miles south of the Texas border on Tuesday or Wednesday morning. This likely will not give the storm time to intensify into a hurricane, though landfall as a strong tropical storm would not be a surprise. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 99L on Monday afternoon.

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 99L in the Western Caribbean.

New African tropical wave this weekend may develop
Our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation all show development by Saturday of a tropical wave expected to come off the coast of Africa on Friday. This wave will be capable of bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday.

Eastern Pacific's 93E a potential threat to Baja
In the Eastern Pacific, tropical disturbance Invest 93E is gathering strength a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In their Monday morning runs, both the GFS and European models predicted that 93E would develop into a tropical storm late this week, and pass very close to the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Friday. Satellite loops show that 93E is poorly organized today, and I expect that the earliest the disturbance would become a tropical depression is Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93E 2-day and 5-day odd of development of 20% and 70%, respectively.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 11:24 AM)