Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: July 2, 2015
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Belize NMS Forecast
6:00 AM in Belize, July 2, 2015
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected, in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
July 2, 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Weather Discussion for the Caribbean Sea
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75w/76w from 19n
southward...passing between Haiti and Jamaica...moving westward
20 knots. Upper level southwesterly wind flow is moving across
the area of the wave from 15n southward. Middle level to upper
level easterly wind flow is moving across the area of the wave
from 13n to 16n. 600 mb to 800 mb level easterly wind flow
covers the area that is from 17n southward between 78w and
Central America. The wave is moving toward the area of an
already-existing upper level trough whose cyclonic wind flow
covers the northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation...isolated moderate to locally strong in the
waters that are between Haiti and Jamaica.
A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84w/85w from 18n
southward...moving westward 20 knots. The wave is cutting
through Honduras...Nicaragua...and Costa Rica. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent.
A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is in
Mexico near 21n103w. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow curves
away from Mexico into the western sections of the Gulf of
Mexico. That northwesterly wind flow crosses the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula...into
the northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea...into the base of
a trough originates in the eastern and southeastern sections of
the Gulf of Mexico. The trough starts in the Gulf of Mexico...
it crosses northwestern Cuba...and it reaches its base near
13n81w in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Earlier
rainshowers in central and southern Florida have weakened and
dissipated. Rainshowers are possible in the northwestern corner
of the Caribbean Sea.
A surface trough stretches across the northwestern part of Cuba.
This trough is part of the energy that was associated with the
current 84w/85w tropical wave as the wave has continued to move
westward. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow from a
trough also spans Cuba. Convective precipitation...isolated
moderate from 16n northward between 80w and 88w.
Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea...except for the ridge and anticyclonic wind flow
that are in the southeastern corner of the area/also in the
Atlantic Ocean...from 10n to 20n between 54w and 80w
48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
Tropical Atlantic is Quiet
7/1/2015 10:11:09 PM
Several factors are leading to quiet weather across the tropics. This is not unusual for this time of year, since activity is normal limited in July. The main player in the tropics at the moment is a strong surface high pressure centered over the central Atlantic. This high is stronger than normal. The high is creating strong trade winds across the Atlantic and Caribbean. So, individual tropical waves are moving too fast to develop. There has also been a lot of Saharan dust across the Atlantic basin. Wind shear is rather high across much of the basin as well. Therefore, tropical development for the next several days is expected not expected.
120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
The Area Of Disturbed Weather That I Was Monitoring Has Decreased In Intensity, But There Are Other Features I’m Keeping Tabs On
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
Wednesday, July 1, 2015 8:54 am
Area Of Disturbed Weather Over The Central & Northern Bahamas: The area of disturbed weather that I mentioned I was keeping an eye on over the central and northern Bahamas has diminished. There is still an old front still in place off of the US Southeast coast that is still causing some shower activity from the Florida Keys and the northern Bahamas northeastward into the open Atlantic. Since there is no persistence in the convection and the fact that upper level winds are no longer favorable, I do not expect development along the tail end of this front.
Heavy Thunderstorms Over The Western Gulf Of Mexico: Strong thunderstorm activity is firing this morning over the far western Gulf of Mexico near the coast of eastern Mexico. This thunderstorm activity is being caused by a weak trough of low pressure in the area. No tropical development is expected from this area of heavy thunderstorms due to the proximity to land. In addition, strong northwesterly wind shear is impacting this thunderstorm complex in the western Gulf of Mexico and will also put a stop to any development.
There May Be A Feature To Keep An Eye On Near The Northern Bahamas, Florida & The Gulf Of Mexico Next Week: There is a tropical wave tracking westward through the eastern Caribbean and it extends northeastward into Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. In addition, there is a upper level low pressure system located just southeast of Bermuda this morning. Right now, development is not expected from either the tropical wave or the upper level low pressure system.
The GFS and European model guidance is forecasting that a piece of the upper level low pressure system may break off and track southwestward reaching the northern Bahamas around Tuesday and then tracking across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday of next week. At the surface, it appears that the northern part of the tropical wave will track westward and reach the Bahamas around Sunday or Monday and could interact with the mid and upper level low pressure system towards the middle and end of next week as the entire feature tracks into the Gulf of Mexico.
Right now, neither the GFS or European model guidance is forecasting any surface low pressure system forming from this feature, but I think it may be something that will need to be monitored closely once it reaches the northern Bahamas around Tuesday and tracks across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by later next week.
At this point, I am not forecasting tropical development from any features that move from the northern Bahamas to the Gulf of Mexico next week, but it will be something that will merit close scrutiny.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT/8 am CDT Friday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Thursday.
Tropical Atlantic Quiet
3:21 PM GMT on June 30, 2015
The tropics are quiet in the Atlantic Ocean, where no tropical storm activity is likely for at least the next week. A moderate-strength El Niño event is underway in the Eastern Pacific, and the atmospheric circulation associated with the strong warming of the waters off the coast of Peru is creating strong upper-level winds over the Caribbean. These powerful winds were creating a very high 60 - 70 knots of wind shear over the Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, making tropical storm formation virtually impossible in these regions. In addition, the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic, including the Caribbean Sea, has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air since April, which has made it difficult for thunderstorms to develop. The high wind shear and low instability is forecast to persist in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for at least the next week. Wind shear is lower in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. East Coast, so if we get any tropical storms forming during the first week of July, those would be the most likely locations. Tropical storms that form just off the U.S. coast typically get going along a cold front that moves off the coast and then stalls over the water. The models are currently showing no fronts active enough to promote such development through the first week of July.
Figure 1. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2015. The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Normal instability is the black line, and this year's instability levels are in blue. The atmosphere has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air since April, which has made it difficult for thunderstorms to develop. Instability has also been unusually low in the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa, but has been near average over the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
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Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image