Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: May 30, 2015

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, May 30, 2015

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

May 8, 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed subtropical storm Ana, located about 170 miles south-southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Unless conditions warrant, this will be the last special tropical weather outlook issued until June 1, 2015, which Marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Caribbean Sea

May 30, 2015

A broad upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the western Caribbean with axis along 80w. Mostly dry conditions aloft accompany this troughing...however minimal mid-level lifting dynamics and upper level diffluence are generating a few isolated showers and tstms across the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba...including the western Yucatan Channel area. Otherwise... skies remain mostly clear across portions of Central America and the western Caribbean. Farther east...southwesterly flow aloft prevails on the eastern periphery of the troughing. This diffluent zone along with the presence of a tropical wave along 69w is providing for increased cloudiness and moisture...along with a broad area of scattered showers and isolated tstms generally west of a line from the Windward Passage near 20n73w to the Nicaragua coast near 11n84w. Looking ahead...east- southeast trades are expected to increase from fresh breeze conditions to a range of fresh to strong breeze conditions by Monday as strong high pressure anchored to the northeast over the central Atlc creates a strengthened pressure gradient across the central Caribbean.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

No Current Tropical Activity in the Basin

5/28/2015 12:23:54 PM

Although May featured Tropical Storm Ana, the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is not until June 1.

There are currently no areas that are being monitored for development.

A strengthening El Nino likely means that there will be fewer tropical cyclones than usual this season, though residents in tropical risk zones should not let their guard down.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Eastern Caribbean Has The Potential To Develop At Some Point During This Upcoming Week In The Northwest Caribbean, Southeast Gulf Of Mexico & Very Near The Florida Peninsula
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Saturday, May 30, 2015 9:42 am

Satellite imagery and surface weather maps showed an area of disturbed weather over the eastern Caribbean rooted on the northern axis of a tropical wave. Even though there is some flare up of thunderstorm activity, environmental conditions are very unfavorable for development right now due to 40 to 50 knots of west-southwesterly wind shear.

It is expected that this area of disturbed weather will track westward reaching the central Caribbean during Sunday and then the northwestern Caribbean by Monday and Tuesday. Increased shower and thunderstorm activity along with gusty winds are expected to develop across the entire northwestern Caribbean Sea during Monday and Tuesday. From there, the chances continue to increase that we may see tropical development across either the northwestern Caribbean, southeastern Gulf of Mexico or very near the Florida Peninsula at some point during this upcoming week. Where exactly this system develops and how strong it becomes depends on which set of model guidance you look at. So, let’s take a look at each specific model:

The GFS model, by far, is the most aggressive of the models as it is showing a tropical storm tracking out of the northwestern Caribbean into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. From there, the GFS model forecasts that this system will impact south Florida during Thursday before moving up along the coast of northeast Florida by Thursday night and Friday.

GFS Model Forecast For Wednesday:

GFS Model Forecast For Thursday:

GFS Model Forecast For Thursday Night:

GFS Model Forecast For Friday:

The European model guidance is now forecasting the area of disturbed weather to lift out of the northwestern Caribbean across the Florida Peninsula as a trough of low pressure by Thursday and Friday. The European model then forecasts that this trough of low pressure will lift northward into north Florida by next weekend before pushing out into the open Atlantic. Even though the European model does not forecast outright tropical development, it does forecast excessive rainfall across the Florida Peninsula throughout next week.

The Canadian model guidance forecasts a tropical system to spin up near the Cayman Islands by about Thursday and Friday and forecasts this system to track northeastward to the northern Bahamas by next Saturday. From there, the Canadian model forecasts that this system will intensify into a tropical storm as it tracks just offshore of the southeast US coast from June 7th to June 9th.

Canadian Model Forecast For Thursday:

Canadian Model Forecast For Friday:

Canadian Model Forecast For Saturday:

Canadian Model Forecast For Sunday:

Here Are My Thoughts: One thing that is for sure is that this disturbed weather, even if it doesn’t develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, will produce some much needed rainfall to the Florida Peninsula during the middle and later parts of next week. It appears that total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with higher amounts possible across south Florida and the northern Bahamas.

So, it appears likely that this area of disturbed weather will move into the northwestern Caribbean by Monday and Tuesday where it will produce widespread thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the entire western Caribbean during Monday and Tuesday.

By Wednesday and Thursday, it looks like this disturbed weather will be pulled northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near south Florida where it could develop into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. This tropical system will then track near northeast Florida and the Georgia coast by Friday and Saturday.

This means, as I have already mentioned, that there will be heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Florida Peninsula and the northern Bahamas during the middle and later parts of this upcoming week.

Finally, environmental conditions are likely to not be very favorable for robust development/intensification. It appears that there will be a upper level low pressure system located over the northern Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming week. This upper level low will probably produce moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear over this area of disturbed weather. This means that if we do see a tropical depression or a tropical storm form, it would likely be messy, lopsided and highly sheared system with heavy rainfall the main hazard from this system.

Bottom line is that I think that there is about a 35 percent chance for a tropical depression or even a tropical storm to form in the area of the northwestern Caribbean, southeastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida Peninsula at some point during this upcoming week, most likely on Wednesday or Thursday.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT/8 am CDT Monday Morning.

Tropical Storm Andres Forms in the Northeast Pacific; Not a Threat to Mexico
Jeff Masters

2:43 PM GMT on May 28, 2015

The Northeast Pacific's first named storm of 2015 is here. Tropical Storm Andres formed at 11 am EDT on Thursday, in the waters about 690 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The first named storm of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season usually forms by June 10, so we are nearly two weeks ahead of climatology. According to the database of Eastern Pacific storms maintained by NOAA's Office for Coastal Management, the formation of a tropical storm in May in the Eastern Pacific is not uncommon, though--33 named storms have formed in May in the 45 years since accurate satellite records began in 1970. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are unusually warm in the region, at least 2°F (1.1°C) above average, thanks in large part to the intensifying El Niño event underway in the Eastern Pacific. Andres will likely be able to take advantage of these warm waters and become a hurricane this weekend, but the storm will stay well out to sea and not affect any land areas for at least the next five days.

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Andres.

Figure 2. Tracks of all May tropical storms and hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean according to the database maintained by NOAA's Office for Coastal Management. Accurate records of Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones began in 1970. The 2015 version of Tropical Storm Andres formed in a typical location for a May tropical storm.

NOAA predicts an above-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 18.5 named storms
Andres is the first salvo in what is likely to be a very busy Northeast Pacific hurricane season. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 27, calls for 15 - 22 named storms, 7 - 12 hurricanes, 5 - 8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 110% - 190% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 18.5 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, and 6.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 150% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Ana to Make Landfall Sunday Morning While Weakening

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 07:58 AM)