Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: July 28, 2016

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, July 28, 2016

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.


Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

July 28, 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development early next week when the system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Tropical waves...
A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic east of the Cape Verde Islands. The wave extends from 07n-15n with axis near 19w, moving W at 5 kt within the last 18 hours. The wave is associated with a 1011 mb low located near 10n19w and is being engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust, which have significantly reduced the convection associated with it. The CIRA lpw imagery show dry air from the surface to 850 mb in the northern wave environment, which is devoid of convection. A cluster of heavy showers is associated with the center of low pressure and extends from 08n-11n between 18w and 21w. Isolated showers are elsewhere from 07n-12n E of 23w. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves W or W-NW.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 10n-20n with axis near 35w, moving at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. Meteosat composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment. CIRA lpw imagery from the surface to 850 mb confirms dry air intrusion in the wave environment, which is keeping the wave devoid of convection.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 08n-17n with axis near 46w, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA lpw imagery show mainly dry air from the surface to 850 mb associated with this wave. The dry air is due to the presence of abundant Saharan dry air and dust, which continue to hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean from 12n-22n with axis near 81w, moving west at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. Aloft, water vapor imagery show strong dry subsidence across most of the SW Caribbean, which is inhibiting convection in that region of the wave. However, shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean and divergent flow aloft support isolated showers and tstms N of 17n W of 79w.

Caribbean Sea...

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean from 12n-22n with axis near 81w. Aloft, water vapor imagery show strong dry subsidence across most of the SW Caribbean, which is inhibiting convection in that region of the wave. However, shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean and divergent flow aloft support isolated showers and tstms N of 17n W of 79w. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough supports heavy showers and tstms S of 11n. Water vapor and CIRA lpw imagery show dry stable air across the remainder basin, which is supporting fair weather. Fresh to strong trade winds continue across the central Caribbean between 68w and 80w, which are expected to amplify west and continue through the weekend. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by early Friday.

Weather Underground Caribbean Forecast

Tropical cyclone development is not anticipated across the Atlantic Basin on Friday, while the tropics stay active in the eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Frank is now located approximately 603 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank was downgraded to a tropical storm over the past 24 hours, with maximum wind speeds at 65 mph (55 kts). The forecast for Tropical Storm Frank takes this system west northwestward across the eastern Pacific. By Friday, Frank is expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression, with wind speeds dropping below 39 mph (33 kts). A broad area of low pressure has formed about 610 nautical miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system has a low, nearly 0% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone as it pushes west northwestward over the eastern Pacific. In the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave is located along the west coast of Guinea. This system has a low, 10% chance to form into a tropical cyclone as it drifts westward over the eastern Atlantic.


48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Strong tropical wave off the west coast of Africa may have a shot at development farther west by early next week
Accuweather

7/28/2016 6:28:59 AM

We are keeping an eye on a strong tropical wave that recently emerged off the west coast of Africa. Showers and thunderstorms along the wave axis diminished considerably during Wednesday and as the system encounters a large area of dry air and dust to the north and northwest, we expect shower and thunderstorm development to remain somewhat suppressed the next couple of days. By the upcoming weekend, there is some chance that as this system moves far enough west, it may emerge out of the dry Saharan air and become better organized during this weekend or early next week. Computer forecast models suggest this system might reach the Lesser Antilles around Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

Elsewhere, we see no chance for tropical development through at least early next week.



120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Invest 96L In The Far Eastern Atlantic May Develop Into At Least A Tropical Depression By This Weekend; Another Tropical Wave In The Eastern Atlantic Also Has A Chance To Develop Later This Week As It Heads Towards The Northeastern Caribbean
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

July 27, 2016

Invest 96-L In The Far Eastern Atlantic: A strong tropical wave is now moving off of the coast of Africa and has been designated Invest 96-L by the National Hurricane Center. This tropical wave is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity along the western coast of Africa with this convection stretching westward into the far eastern Atlantic to near the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions, including low wind shear and sufficient moisture profiles, are favorable for tropical development. The only impediment to tropical development of this tropical wave is that ocean water temperatures near this tropical wave range from 78 to 82 degrees Fahrenheit and this is just barely favorable for tropical development. With that said, I think this tropical wave has a chance to develop into at least a tropical depression by this weekend as it pushes westward from the eastern Atlantic into the central Atlantic.

There are pretty strong signals from most of the model guidance that suggests Invest 96-L may develop into at least a tropical depression and very possibly a tropical storm by this weekend as it tracks westward across the eastern Atlantic. In fact, the GFS ensemble guidance is giving Invest 96-L a 60 percent chance to develop into a tropical cyclone and the European ensemble guidance is forecasting that Invest 96-L has a 50 to 60 percent chance to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days.

One thing that the GFS and European model guidance are forecasting is that both models weaken and even forecast dissipation of this system as it nears the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean by the middle part of next week. The reason why they are forecasting this is because they forecast Invest 96-L will encounter a wall of 40 to 50 knot southwesterly wind shear in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles thus causing significant weakening and dissipation. This is a possible scenario, however, model generated wind shear forecasts can be way off sometimes and cannot be trusted more than a couple of days out.

Here Are My Thoughts On Invest 96-L: I think that Invest 96-L has at least a 40 to 50 percent chance to develop into at least a tropical depression as it heads westward across the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Fortunately, for now, Invest 96-L will pose no immediate threat to the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean. In fact, if the wind shear forecasts from the model guidance do pan out, then this system will never pose any threat to these areas. With that said, I am going to keep a very close eye on Invest 96-L and will keep you updated.

Invest 96L Information:


Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:





There is another tropical wave, now located in the eastern Atlantic along the 28 Degree West Longitude line that I want to keep a close eye on. Right now, satellite imagery indicates there is an overall lack of shower and thunderstorm activity with this tropical wave, except along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. Even with that, the environmental conditions around and ahead of this tropical wave are favorable for tropical development and it is a system to keep an eye on.

The model guidance, including the GFS and European model guidance, forecast that this tropical wave may light up with convection by about Friday once it crosses the 45-50 West Longitude line. In fact, the European model guidance has been alternating between forecasting this tropical wave will become a tropical cyclone and forecasting that it comes very close to becoming a tropical cyclone by late this week and this weekend. In addition, all of the guidance forecasts that this system will impact the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as at least a strong and vigorous tropical wave and very possibly as a tropical cyclone on Saturday. From there, the model guidance, especially the European model, forecasts this system may impact the Bahamas as at least a strong tropical wave and possibly a tropical cyclone from Sunday through Monday and possibly parts of the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts On This Tropical Wave: The tropical wave along the 28 West Longitude line actually has my attention a little more since it could pose some threat to the northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico around Saturday. It remains to be seen if this tropical wave does start to increase in organization and strength as it pushes westward over the next few days, but given the overall model agreement that this will indeed happen, it is a system to keep a very close eye on.

Another reason why I want to keep a very close eye on this tropical wave is because there are hints in the model forecasts that suggest this system could be a tropical cyclone as it moves into the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. In fact, the European ensemble guidance is forecasting this tropical wave has a 20 to 30 percent chance to be a tropical cyclone in the Bahamas and near the Florida Peninsula early next week. Not only that, the European ensemble and GFS ensemble guidance are exhibiting some signals that there will be lower than average barometric pressures present in the Bahamas and around the Florida Peninsula early next week. So, this says to me this is something to keep a very close eye on for early next week and this is exactly what I will be doing.




96L Off the Coast of Africa Growing More Organized
Jeff Masters

July 28, 2016

A strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning has become more organized over the far eastern Atlantic, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the coming days as it tracks west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph into the middle Atlantic. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 96L on Wednesday morning--the first "Invest" of the year for an African tropical wave. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed 96L had a compact area of heavy thunderstorms, and this activity had acquired a modest degree of organization. Some spin was evident in the cloud pattern, and low-level spiral banding features had begun to appear. Wind shear was a light 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28C (82F), which was about 1C (1.8F) above average. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that the eastern tropical Atlantic was quite moist, with the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) several hundred miles north of 96L. These conditions are favorable for development of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT (12 UTC) Thursday, July 28, 2016, showed that the dry air and dust of the SAL lay a few hundred miles to the north of 96L. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

Forecast for 96L
Steering currents favor a west to west-northwesterly motion at 10 - 20 mph for 96L over the next five days, and the storm should reach a point near 40W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa, on Sunday. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted modestly favorable conditions for development through Saturday morning, with wind shear in the light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and warm SSTs near 27.5 - 28C (81 - 82F.) However, on Saturday and Sunday, 96L will encounter cooler waters, with temperatures a marginal 26.5 - 27C (80 - 81F). The SHIPS model also predicts that wind shear over the weekend will become moderate to high, 15 - 25 knots, and the atmosphere will get very dry, due to an intrusion of the Saharan Air Layer (check out the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.) These unfavorable conditions would stymie any development of 96L.

The Thursday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported some limited development of 96L, but stopped short of predicting it would become a tropical depression. The 00Z Thursday run of the GFS ensemble forecast, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had more than 50% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form this weekend or early next week in the eastern Atlantic. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions, and none had it becoming a hurricane. Between 10 - 20% of the 50 members of the 00Z Thursday European ensemble model forecasts showed 96L becoming a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. Though the long-range uncertainty on what 96L might do is high, one reasonable scenario is for the system to steadily grow in organization the next few days, come close to or achieve tropical depression status by Saturday, then get ripped up by wind shear and dry air well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week. Should 96L become a tropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic list is Earl.

Eastern Pacific getting less active
For the first time since July 2, there is only one active tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Frank, which peaked as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday. Frank is degenerating quickly over 23C waters and is likely to dissipate by Thursday evening, potentially giving us on Friday our first tropical cyclone-free day in the Eastern Pacific since July 1. Beginning on July 2, the Eastern Pacific had Tropical Storm Agatha form, followed by Category 4 Hurricane Blas, Category 2 Hurricane Celia, Category 3 Hurricane Darby, Tropical Storm Estelle, Category 1 Hurricane Frank and Category 4 Hurricane Georgette. This puts us far ahead of climatology: the Eastern Pacific usually does not see its seventh named storm until August 7, its fifth hurricane until August 26, and its third major hurricane until September 20. An average season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The quiet may not last long: in their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave a new tropical disturbance a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Paninsula 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 70%, respectively. This storm--which would be named Howard if it gets to tropical storm strength--is expected to move west-northwest and not impact Mexico.



CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)


Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image





Edited by Marty (Yesterday at 01:03 PM)