Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 21, 2014

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, October 21, 2014

An area of low pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.This system has a medium chance(50%) to become a tropical cyclone over the next day or two as it moves slowly eastward.

Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on October 21, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited. This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late Wednesday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Gonzalo Remains Post-Tropical; Watching the Gulf of Mexico

10/21/2014 4:00:37 AM

Gonzalo is post-tropical and will impact the British Isles today with a bout of gale-force winds and rain.

A disturbance moving through the Bay of Campeche will eventually move toward the Florida Straits by the end of the week, spreading rain into South Florida on Thursday night into Friday. There is a small chance the feature could become a tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday as it encounters very warm water near the Yucatan Channel. By Friday, the system will become more impacted by shear as it works farther east, putting an end to any potential strengthening. Regardless, the system will produce heavy rainfall in South Florida into the Bahamas.

A large non-tropical low pressure southeast of the Azores in the far eastern Atlantic could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics this week as it drifts westward over warm waters.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is expected to remain void of tropical development over the next 48 hours.

120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

The Evolution & Track Of Invest 93-L In The Bay Of Campeche Is Very Complicated With Many Possible Outcomes; Everyone Across South Florida, The Florida Keys & The Northwestern Caribbean Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of Invest 93-L
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, October 21, 2014 8:30 am

Satellite imagery this morning of Invest 93L, which is located in the Bay of Campeche, showed that while the shower and thunderstorm activity died down some last night, satellite frames from the last couple of hours shows that there has been an increase in thunderstorm activity over the southeastern Bay of Campeche. In addition, the overall structure of Invest 93L has become better defined and it looks like that Invest 93L is meandering very slowly east or even east-southeastward at a forward speed of 3 to 4 mph. It should be pointed out that a reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Invest 93L this afternoon to determine whether we have a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche.

I expect that Invest 93L will hang around the Bay of Campeche from today through possibly Thursday. Some development is possible during the next couple of days and it is quite conceivable that Invest 93L could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm between later today and Thursday. The reason for this thinking is that the coast surrounding the Bay of Campeche is U shaped and that this shape can actually aid in development causing convergence and spin.

After Thursday, the forecast with Invest 93L becomes very complicated and the model guidance continues to have problems figuring out what may happen with Invest 93L with many different model solutions presented to us.

The GFS model guidance forecasts that Invest 93L will split into two pieces with one piece being led off to the northeast along a frontal boundary across south Florida and the northwestern Bahamas around Friday into Saturday. The second piece of energy is driven southeastward into the northwestern Caribbean where it develops into a tropical cyclone later this weekend into early next week and ultimately pulls northward into the vicinity of western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas around the middle part of next week.

The Canadian model guidance seems to keep a majority of the energy together with Invest 93L as it tracks into the northwestern Caribbean by Saturday where it develops into at least a tropical storm this weekend as it meanders around the northwestern Caribbean very near the Yucatan Channel. By next week, the Canadian model forecasts a north and eventually a northeast track across the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico with an impact near the Big Bend of northwest Florida around Wednesday of next week.

The European model guidance forecasts that a piece of Invest 93L is pulled off to the northeast by this weekend as a second piece lingers in the northwestern Caribbean. This second piece of energy tracks west-northwestward and ultimately impacts the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize around Thursday of next week.

Both the HWRF and GFDL models forecast a scenario of one piece of Invest 93L being pulled to the northeast while a second piece is left behind in the northwestern Caribbean where development begins to occur around Saturday.

Here are my thoughts as of this Tuesday Morning: This is a very complex and complicated weather pattern as Invest 93L will be interacting with an upper level trough of low pressure that will be digging down from the north. It is not very surprising to me to see such a wide variety of model outcomes as this is the sort of weather pattern that gives the models fits. I see at least a couple of possible outcomes with Invest 93L.

The first is that it gets stuck in the northwestern Caribbean for several days from this weekend into early next week. This is something that the models seem to be slowly trending towards with each new forecast run. If this does get stuck in the northwestern Caribbean, then it is plausible that significant strengthening into a upper end tropical storm or even a hurricane could occur. Also, the ultimate track of any tropical storm or hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean would be very uncertain with a few possible tracks, including a track westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize or a track north and northeastward towards western Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the northwestern Bahamas.

A second possible outcome with Invest 93L is that it is absorbed by the frontal boundary that will be pushing southward across the Florida Peninsula from Wednesday through Friday. Should this happen, then little or no development would occur, however, heavy rainfall would be a significant threat across south Florida, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas throughout the rest of this week into this weekend.

Bottom line is that everyone across south Florida, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Invest 93L. At the very minimum, very heavy rainfall is expected through this week right into this weekend across south Florida and especially the Florida Keys with total rainfall amounts of up to 4 to 8 inches likely. A track southeastward into the northwestern Caribbean like many of the model guidance members are suggesting would mean the potential for a slow moving and meandering strengthening tropical cyclone from this weekend into next week that would have impacts on the northwestern Caribbean and possibly across the Florida Peninsula and the northern Bahamas.

I am monitoring Invest 93L very closely and will continue to have updates as conditions warrant.

Invest 93L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Gulf of Mexico's 93L a Heavy Rain Threat; Ana Leaves Hawaii Alone
Jeff Masters

3:25 PM GMT on October 21, 2014

An area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche (93L) contains moisture and spin from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Trudy, which made landfall near Acapulco last weekend. 93L will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida Wednesday through Friday. Satellite loops show the low has a moderate degree of spin and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, but these thunderstorms are poorly organized, due to high wind shear of 30 knots. Mexican radar out of Altamira does show at least one spiral band had formed near the coast Tuesday morning, though. Water vapor satellite images show there is dry air from Mexico flowing eastwards over the western Gulf of Mexico, which is likely slowing development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, about 29.5C. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Wednesday - Friday, giving 93L a better chance to develop then. The Tuesday morning runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all showed support for some slow development of 93L this week. The storm is likely to move slowly eastwards across the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday and Wednesday, cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, move through the Florida Straits between Cuba and South Florida on Friday, then into the Bahamas on Saturday. Along its path, 3 - 6" of rain are are likely--with higher rainfall amounts to be expected if 93L ends up developing into a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 50%, respectively. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 93L Tuesday afternoon, but may be cancelled.

The prospects of 93L developing into a damaging hurricane are very low, and this storm is primarily a heavy rain threat. However, both the GFS and European models show the possibility that the trough of low pressure expected to pick up 93L and pull it northeastwards out to sea this weekend may leave behind an area of spin in the Western Caribbean early next week that would potentially have the capability to develop into a more dangerous tropical cyclone than 93L. It's too early to be sold on this model solution yet, but we should pay attention to the evolution of this storm system over the coming week.

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico.

Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 5-day period ending Sunday, October 26, 2014. 93L is predicted to bring rainfall amounts of up to five inches to South Florida. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Eastern Atlantic disturbance 92L little threat
A large non-tropical low pressure system spinning in the Eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Azores Islands (92L) brought heavy rains and flash flooding that killed five people in the Canary Islands on Sunday. This low is headed slowly westwards into a region with higher wind shear, and should not affect any more land areas. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%.

Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Ana brushing the Hawaiian Islands at 7:55 pm EDT on Monday October 20, 2014. At the time, Ana had top winds of 65 mph, and high wind shear had allowed the surface circulation to be exposed to view. Image credit: NASA.

Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Molokai radar for Hurricane Ana shows that extreme rains of 15+" fell just 20 miles off the coast from Honolulu.

Tropical Storm Ana headed away from Hawaii
Tropical Storm Ana is headed northwestwards away from the Hawaiian Islands; all watches and warnings have been dropped for the main Hawaiian Islands. Heavy rains of 4.72" fell in Honolulu from Ana, and widespread rain amounts of 4 - 7" were reported on Oahu. The island was very fortunate, though, since a large area of 15+" of rain fell just 20 miles offshore, according to radar estimates. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed that Ana was having trouble with high wind shear, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view. Ana will turn north and then northeast over the next few days and gradually weaken over cooler waters, without affecting any other land areas.

93L and Non-Tropical Partner to Bring Loads of Rain to Mexico, Cuba, Bahamas, and South Florida

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (39 minutes 56 seconds ago)