Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: August 30, 2015

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, August 30, 2015

Tropical Storm Fred forms! At 3:00 am the center was located near 12.4 N 18.9W or about 405 miles ESE of the Northernmost Cape Verde Islands. It sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving NW near 12 mph.

Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

August 29, 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fred, located a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Erika is producing areas of heavy rain over portions of South Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba. Although there are no signs of redevelopment at this time, upper-level winds could become marginally favorable for tropical cyclone formation over the next day or so. Regardless of this system's prospects for regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to spread northwestward and then northward across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Monday. Additional information on this system can be found in marine forecasts and local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service and the meteorological service of Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Special features...
Tropical wave just off the coast of Africa along 17w from 5n to 16n with a 1012 mb low along the wave near 10n17w has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Six at 30/0530 UTC. Tropical Depression Six is centered near 12.1n 18.4w at 30/0530 UTC or about 387 nm E-se of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt g to 40 kt. Scattered moderate/strong convection is within 180 nm of the center over the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of 10n between 17w-21w. Please see the latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat1/wtnt21 knhc for more details.

Tropical waves...
Tropical wave in the central tropical Atlc extends along 46w/ 47w from 9n-19n with a 1013 mb low along the wave near 13n moving W near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. SSMI tpw indicates the wave is embedded within a surge of deep moisture and the last visible satellite images show an area of aerosols or dust riding N of the inverted v that is the wave axis. No associated convection.

Tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is along 60w from 9n-20n moving W near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. SSMI tpw indicates the wave is trailing an area of deep moisture. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 12n- 20n between the wave and 63w enhanced by the trade winds.

Discussion, Caribbean Sea...
An upper ridge dominates the W Caribbean with the ridge axis extending from central Honduras to central Cuba continuing into the W Atlc. A surface trough...remnants of Tropical Storm Erika extends from near Andros Island across Cuba near 22n78w to 21n79w and is generating scattered to numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms N of 18n to over Cuba between 76w-81w. The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico is generating scattered to numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms N of 21n to over W Cuba between 81w-86w. A mid level low is centered S of SW Haiti near 17n75w with isolated showers N of 18n to over W Hispaniola and E Cuba between 71w-76w. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are in the SW Caribbean S of 11n E of 80w. The activity over the far E Caribbean is associated with the approaching tropical wave. The surface trough...remnants of Tropical Storm Erika will move NW along the N coast of Cuba tonight then into the E Gulf of Mexico sun. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds. Will continue across the central Caribbean tonight through sun. A tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean overnight then into the central Caribbean Mon and Tue.

Tropical Storm Fred

...Fred expected to strengthen...

At 800 am AST (1200 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 12.9 north, longitude 19.3 west. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Tropical Storm Fred is expected to move through the Cape Verde Islands by late Monday and into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fred could be near hurricane strength when it moves through the Cape Verde Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Fred Enters Stage Left, Erika to Produce Heavy Rain Over Florida

8/30/2015 5:15:41 AM

Tropical Rainstorm Erika is located at 23.5 N, -79.3 W with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 45 mph

Tropical Storm Fred is located at 12.4 N, -18.9 W with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph

Newly minted Tropical Storm Fred is located several hundred miles away from the Cape Verde Islands this morning, but will take aim at that archipelago of islands during the next couple of days. Fred will strengthen into a strong tropical storm during the next 48 hours. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents will develop today ahead of Fred followed by increasing wind and rain late Sunday night and Monday. The greatest impacts will occur on Monday and Monday night with heavy rain that can lead to deadly flash flooding and mudslides, and strong winds causing damage to trees and power lines. Drier air and stronger wind shear is located just north of the Cape Verde Islands and eventually, these environmental conditions will have a negative impact on the tropical cyclone, but probably not until Tuesday. It's not out of the question that this tropical cyclone could bring hurricane conditions to the Cape Verde Islands.

Meanwhile, Tropical Rainstorm Erika will track across the Florida Straits today and push into the eastern Gulf. The system will be interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf so despite the weakening, flooding rain will fall over the Florida Peninsula today through Monday. Heavy rain from Erika will spread north across South Florida today and tonight where several inches are likely and flooding is possible. Tropical Rainstorm Erika should track to the northwest and north off the west coast of Florida on Monday through Tuesday. This should spread heavy rain to the north across the peninsula, especially across the western half.

A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles shows no signs of strengthening, but it will produce showers over the Windward Islands later today.

120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Remnants Of Erika To Continue To Bring Heavy Rain & Flooding To The Florida Peninsula; Tropical Storm Fred Forms In The Far Eastern Atlantic; Sub-Tropical/Tropical Development Possible Off US East Coast Late This Week Or This Weekend
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

August 30, 2015

Remnants Of Erika: The remnants of Erika, which are essentially a trough of low pressure, stretches from near south Florida through the Florida Straits to just south of western and central Cuba this morning. Satellite and radar loops indicate that these remnants have been trying to reorganize as there have been a large increase in thunderstorm activity all along this trough of low pressure. In addition, radar loops indicate that there seems to be two areas of circulation that are trying to form along this trough. The first circulation is located near the Florida Keys with the second circulation located just south of central Cuba.

Closer analysis reveals that while the circulation near the Florida Keys is encountering 20 knots of wind shear, the other circulation just south of western and central Cuba seems to be under 5 to 10 knots of wind shear. Even with that, the stretched out look of this system along with at least a couple of circulations trying to compete with each other means that the redevelopment of Erika seems somewhat unlikely. In addition, it is expected that this entire system will quickly pivot northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by later today and tonight where wind shear values increase to 20 knots which is unfavorable for redevelopment. It is expected that this entire system will finally pull inland into northern Florida and the Florida Panhandle during Monday.

Bottom line is that redevelopment of Erika seems unlikely, however, it will still bring some significant effects to Florida over the next 2 to 3 days.

HEAVY RAINFALL & FLASH FLOODING is the biggest threat with the remnants of Erika for western and central Cuba and the Florida Peninsula. Bands of heavy rain, strong gusty winds and frequent lightning have been impacting southeast Florida and much of western and Cuba since last night and this heavy rainfall will impact the entire Florida Peninsula throughout today and tonight with the heaviest amounts expected across south Florida and the Florida Keys.

By Monday, the heaviest rainfall is forecast to fall across western and southwest Florida with this heavy rain spreading into northern Florida and southern Georgia during Tuesday.

Total rainfall amounts from today through Tuesday across the Florida Peninsula are expected to average at least 4 to 6 inches with higher amounts possible, especially along the west and southwest coasts of Florida.

There are still some areas of the Nature Coast, Southwest Florida and Southeast Florida that have been waterlogged from rains over the last two months. This additional rainfall has the potential to cause life threatening flash flooding. In fact, I have great concern that the combination of the moisture from Erika and a frontal boundary that is sitting nearby could cause extreme rainfall amounts in some areas of the Florida Peninsula. In particular, an area from Tampa southward through Fort Myers and Naples and into south Florida could be at particular risk for extreme rainfall amounts.

Bottom line is that this is a multi-day heavy rain event for Florida and everyone should be prepared for flash flooding, even if you dont live in a normally flood prone area.

Satellite Imagery:

Radar Imagery:

Total Rainfall Forecast From Today Through Tuesday:

Tropical Storm Fred In The Far Eastern Atlantic:
5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 12.4 North Latitude, 18.9 West Longitude or about 405 miles to the east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.
Maximum Winds: 40 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 Millibars or 29.68 Inches.
Forward Movement: Northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph.

A strong tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic has strengthened since yesterday and is now Tropical Storm Fred. Fred is expected to track on a west-northwest to northwest track and is expected to impact the Cape Verde Islands with tropical storm force winds with gusts to hurricane force during the day on Monday.

After that, Fred is expected to bend back to the west-northwest and even the west as it tracks above the 20 North Latitude line in the eastern Atlantic. All indications are, however, that Fred poses no threat to the Caribbean, Bermuda, the Bahamas or the United States as a trough of low pressure out near 50 West Longitude should turn Fred to the north and northeast into the open Atlantic by late this week or next weekend.

Tropical Storm Fred Information:

Model Track Forecast:
Courtesy of South Florida Water Management District
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Model Intensity Forecast:
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Satellite Imagery:
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

Sub-Tropical Or Tropical Development Possible Off Of The US East Coast Late This Week Or Next Weekend: There is the potential that we could see the development of either a sub-tropical or tropical system form somewhere off of the US East Coast late this week or next weekend and meander around during the first full week of September. It appears that a large high pressure system may position itself over the northeastern United States by next week leading to naturally lowering barometric pressures somewhere offshore of the US Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coastline.

For what its worth, the European model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a tropical system to mill around about 150 miles offshore of the North Carolina coast next weekend before lifting northeastward off of the coast of Cape Cod by about next Tuesday. The GFS model looks much weaker and barely shows any low pressure development off of the US East Coast. Instead, the GFS model is forecasting a tropical system to form in the Bay of Campeche around next Monday and next Tuesday and head for south Texas by September 10th. It should be pointed out that the GFS model is the only model forecasting this Bay of Campeche development and given the unfavorable environmental conditions right now there, I have skepticism with the GFS model. The Canadian model guidance also forecasts tropical development off of the US East Coast from late this weekend through next weekend with this system lingering through the first full week of September.

Here Are My Thoughts: In looking at the upper level pattern for this coming week through next weekend, I agree with the prognosis that we will have a large upper high pressure system build from Hudson Bay south and southeastward into Quebec province and the northeastern United States. At the same time this is happening, a piece of energy could break off from a trough of low pressure that will be lifting out by late this week. This combination of a large high pressure system over the northeastern United States and a trough split is sometimes called situational development where a tropical system tries to spin up near or just offshore of the US East Coast and is blocked from heading out into the open Atlantic by that high pressure system. This means this tropical system just meanders around and tries to strengthen.

I will admit that I have quite a bit of skepticism with many of the global model guidance after the very poor forecasts of both track and intensity of Erika. With that said, given the coming favorable weather pattern that could lead to sub-tropical or tropical development off of the US East Coast, it is something that I will be keeping an eye on throughout this coming week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT/8 am CDT Monday Morning.

Erika Dissipates
Jeff Masters

August 29, 2015

Tropical Storm Erika charged into the teeth of Hispaniola's high mountains on Friday night, and emerged from the encounter shattered, without a closed circulation, and is no longer a tropical storm. Measurements on Saturday morning from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft failed to find any tropical storm-force winds associated with Erika, and the plane did not find any westerly winds, showing the the storm had degenerated to a tropical wave.

Figure 1. Erika as seen from the International Space Station on Saturday morning, August 29, 2015. Image credit: Scott Kelly.

Erika belted the Dominican Republic and Haiti with torrential rains overnight; a Personal Weather Station (PWS) in Barahona in the Dominican Republic recorded 24.26" in rain between 1 pm Friday and 7 am Saturday. Other nearby locations showed rainfall amounts of 4" or below, so widespread flooding may not have occurred in the Dominican Republic. Erika's worst flooding was on the island of Dominica, where at least 20 people are confirmed dead. Canefield Airport on Dominica recorded 12.62" (320.6 mm) of rain in twelve hours on Wednesday night and Thursday morning from Erika.

Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation from Tropical Storm Erika from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar. Erika's rains were a disappointment in eastern Puerto Rico, where severe to extreme drought conditions have led to drastic water rationing. The capital of San Juan received just 0.22" of rain on Friday, leaving them ten inches below the 33" average rainfall for this time of year.

Forecast for Erika's remains
The remnants of Erika will likely produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 - 6" across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern and central Cuba through Sunday, with 1 - 3" across the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern and central Bahamas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning on Sunday. Eastern Cuba, which is suffering its worst drought since at least 1901, is hoping that Erika's rains prove bounteous. Reuters reported Friday that Cuba will begin a two-month cloud-seeding campaign in September over the eastern part of the island in hopes of easing the drought.

The 00Z Saturday (8 pm EDT Friday) runs of our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis had one model--the UKMET--showing regeneration of Erika into a tropical depression along the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. The other two models--the European and GFS models--showed no regeneration. The 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model showed wind shear would drop to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots off the west coast of Florida by Tuesday; sea surface temperatures will be a very warm 30C (86F). These conditions support potential slow regeneration of Erika.

New tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa
A strong tropical wave (Invest 99L) with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday, and has the potential to become a tropical depression early in the week as it moves west-northwest or northwest near or over the Cape Verde Islands at 10 - 15 mph. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 70%, respectively. This disturbance will likely move too far to the northwest to be a threat to the Caribbean islands.

Erika Moving into Hispaniola Big Flooding Threat, but May Dissipate

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 06:00 AM)