Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: May 21, 2013

Atlantic Tracking Map:

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, May 21, 2013

There is no tropical storm activity for this region.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

5:00 am PDT on May 21, 2013

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

The Atlantic Season Starts June 1
Accuweather

5/16/2013 2:39:57 PM

The official start of the 2013 Hurricane Season is June 1. There are no signs of pre season development at this time. If pre season development is expected we will start our routine updates right away. In a normal season the Atlantic Basin experiences 12 tropical storms. 6 of those storms become hurricanes and 3 of the 6 hurricanes become major hurricanes, category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin is located about 790 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Satellite imagery show no closed low-level circulation associated with Alvin in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ and has devolved into an open tropical wave.

Elsewhere, there are no areas of concern for development over the Eastern Pacific.

Monday, May 20, 2013 7:17 am

I continue to monitor an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation that is still forecast to move into the Caribbean by this coming weekend and remain in the Atlantic through the first few days of June. It is fully expected that this area of upward moving air will lead to enhanced rainfall and lowering barometric pressures. This upward MJO pulse can also lead to tropical cyclone development and this is what may occur either next week or the following week in the western Caribbean.

Satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning showed not only some deep convection near Panama but also a tropical wave is pushing westward across the eastern Caribbean this morning. This tropical wave is expected to reach the southwestern Caribbean by about Thursday or Friday and I think will help to sow the seeds to increased rainfall over much of the western Caribbean starting around Friday and continuing right through this upcoming weekend and into next week. This tropical wave may also help to get some sort of tropical mischief going in the southwestern Caribbean possibly as early as next week.

The latest global model guidance show at least strong signs of tropical troubles in the southwestern Caribbean as early as next Tuesday or next Wednesday. The GFS model forecasts that tropical development will occur in the eastern Pacific next week but then forecasts this tropical system to cross over and become a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of June. The Canadian model forecasts the development of a tropical cyclone just off of the coast of Honduras around next Wednesday with the European model showing lowering barometric pressures and increased storminess across all of the western Caribbean next week.

It needs to be emphasized that the upcoming pattern of a upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a weather pattern consisting of high pressure over the eastern United States next week actually gives us a rather high chance of tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean between May 29th and June 5th. Any tropical cyclone that does form has a good shot of tracking northward to either near the Bahamas or into the Gulf of Mexico.

Additionally, a heavy rainfall and flash flood/mudslide threat is quite possible across Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico by this upcoming weekend. All of our Crown Weather friends in these areas should be aware of this possibility.

I will continue to monitor the possibility of western Caribbean tropical development for possibly as early as next week and will continue to have frequent updates.

First tropical depression of the year forming in the Eastern Pacific
Jeff Masters

1:34 PM GMT on May 15, 2013

Latest satellite image of Invest 90E.

The official start of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is Wednesday, May 15 (today!), and Mother Nature is playing along with this idea. The first "Invest" of the year, Invest 90E, has become well-organized on satellite loops, and NHC has set in motion the process to name this system Tropical Depression One-E (or possibly Tropical Storm Alvin) at 11 am EDT. Wind shear is a low 5 -10 knots, and is predicted to remain low for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are a warm 29 - 30°C, and it is possible that this could become Hurricane Alvin late this week. The storm is moving west-northwest into the Central Pacific, and is not a threat to any land areas.

I'll have a new post late this morning or early this afternoon on yesterday's remarkable heat wave in the Midwest. Can you believe 106° in Iowa and 108° in Nebraska, after unprecedented May snows were falling less than two weeks ago? Unbelievable!

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)