Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 31, 2014

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Atlantic Tracking Map:

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, October 31, 2014

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on October 31, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Quiet Weekend across the Atlantic Basin

Quiet Weekend across the Atlantic Basin 10/31/2014 7:00:00 AM10/31/2014 7:00:00 AM

The area of low pressure a couple of hundred miles north of the Virgin Islands is encountering strong environmental shear and will likely dissipate during the next 24 hours as the low become elongated and stretched to the north and northeast. The deep moisture associated with this feature will track east of Bermuda.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet. We see no support for tropical development through the next 5 days.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

No Tropical Development Expected Through At Least This Weekend; Low Pressure Is Expected To Bring Heavy Rainfall & Storms To The Bahamas & The Northern Caribbean Late Next Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Friday, October 31, 2014 10:07 am

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are quiet this morning with no areas of interest; in fact, tropical development is not expected right through at least this weekend and probably right into early next week.

Beyond this, the global models, including the European, GFS and Canadian models are forecasting the development of some sort of low pressure system somewhere around the southeastern Bahamas around Wednesday of next week. It seems that this low pressure may form along the tail end of a strong cold front that will be pushing across the northern Caribbean and across the Bahamas this weekend into early next week. Once this low pressure system forms, it is forecast by these models to push westward or even west-southwestward across the Bahamas towards later next week and possibly dropping into the northwestern Caribbean by next weekend.

At the very least, this low pressure system will bring unsettled weather in the way of locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across the Bahamas, Cuba and parts of the northwestern Caribbean during the middle and later parts of next week. I don’t think right now that we will see significant development from this low pressure system, but it is something that will need to be watched. In fact, it is the only thing right now that has even a very slight chance for tropical development for the next 2 weeks.

Vance Forms in the Eastern Pacific; the Atlantic Goes Quiet
Jeff Masters

3:05 PM GMT on October 31, 2014

Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Eastern Pacific on Thursday afternoon. Satellite images show that Vance is struggling with dry air and wind shear, with just a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that had not improved in organization since Thursday. By Saturday, the wind shear should relent, allowing intensification into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico through Sunday, but our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks--the GFS and European models--forecast that Vance will get pulled to the northeast by a trough of low pressure early next week, and make landfall in Mainland Mexico northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday night. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain low, 5 - 10 knots, though Monday, then ramp up significantly on Monday night and Tuesday as Vance gets caught up in the trough of low pressure that will sling it into Mexico. The higher wind shear should be able to significantly weaken Vance before landfall, making heavy rain the primary threat. In their 11 am EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave a 15% chance that Vance would bring tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph to Puerto Vallarta and the tip of the Baja Peninsula. Vance's moisture will likely bring heavy rain and the threat of flooding to Texas on Wednesday.

Figure 1. VIIRS satellite image of Tropical Storm Vance off the Pacific coast of Mexico on Thursday, October 30, 2014. At the time, Vance had top sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Quiet in the Atlantic
The Atlantic is quiet today, with no areas of concern to discuss. None of the three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predicts any development in the Atlantic over the next five days. With November at hand and El Niño-like atmospheric conditions in place, the odds of getting Tropical Storm Isaias before the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on November 30 are probably around 30%.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 10:47 AM)