Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: September 23, 2014

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, September 23, 2014

In the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on September 23, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic Basin Remains Quiet

9/23/2014 4:30:13 AM

There are no immediate concerns for tropical development across the Atlantic Basin, but there are a few features worth watching.

The Atlantic tropical basin remains devoid of any organized tropical systems. We are tracking tropical waves along 45 west, south of 18 north, along 67 west, south of 22 north and along 84 west, south of 23 north. All three waves lack any signs of organization. A new tropical wave will emerge off the west coast of Africa within the next 24 hours.

Computer forecasts project several areas of moderate to strong shear over the Gulf of Mexico, much of the Caribbean and over large sections of the southern North Atlantic. A large area of dry stable air remains in place, mostly north of 12 north and east of 60 west. These hostile environmental conditions are expected to remain across the Atlantic basin through at least Friday. So chances for tropical development remain quite low through this week and probably through the upcoming weekend.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

For The US Southeast Coast – An Extended Period Of Gusty Northeast Winds & Periods Of Rain Are Expected As A Storm System Sits & Spins Near The US Southeast Coast From Today Through At Least This Weekend
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 8:33 am

US Southeast Coast: Satellite imagery this morning indicates that there is a frontal boundary positioned near the US Southeast coast with an area of low pressure that seems to be forming in the eastern Gulf of Mexico just west of Tampa. Weather observations indicate that northeast winds are increasing along the US Southeast coast with 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph common. Radar loops show rain with scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the coast from southeastern North Carolina to northeast Florida.

It is expected that this low pressure system will cross the Florida Peninsula today and should be near the coast of Georgia by this evening. Rain with scattered thunderstorms along with northeast winds gusting to 35 mph are expected throughout today along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina.

Unfortunately, this low pressure system is expected to hang around for at least several days and this raises concerns that it could transform into a tropical cyclone at some point later this week or this weekend. Current indications are that this low pressure system will continue pushing north-northeastward to a position near eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia by Wednesday night and Thursday bringing periods of rain and gusty winds to the southeast US and Mid-Atlantic coasts from Tuesday through Thursday.

After Thursday, the forecast becomes more complicated and this forecast includes questions whether this low pressure system may transform into a tropical cyclone. The GFS model forecasts that this low pressure system will continue tracking northeastward to southern New England by late Thursday before fading to the east and dissipating to the south of Nova Scotia by this weekend. The European model has a completely different idea and forecasts that this low pressure system will loop back to the south from near the Virginia coast on Thursday to near the eastern North Carolina coast by Saturday where it sits and spins just offshore of the eastern and southeastern North Carolina coast through Monday.

The differences between the GFS and European models is pretty large in both rainfall/wind impacts on the US Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts and the chances of transformation into a tropical cyclone. If the GFS model ends up being correct, then we would be looking at a fairly dry weekend along the Mid-Atlantic and southeast US coast and zero chances of tropical development. Now, if the European model ends up being correct, then periods of rain and gusty northeast winds would be likely right through this entire weekend into early next week along the entire length of the Mid-Atlantic coast as well as the coasts of North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia.

My thoughts are that even though I am leaning much more towards the European model, I don’t want to take it at face value. So, my thinking right now (and this is a low confidence forecast after Thursday) is that on Thursday, we will have low pressure sitting near the Delaware and Maryland coast and will push offshore to the east by Friday where it may try to transform into either a sub-tropical or even a tropical storm as it will be over the waters of the Gulf Stream. After tracking to the east, I think this storm may get pushed back to the southwest by the high pressure system over the northeastern United States to a position near the eastern and southeastern North Carolina coast during Saturday into possibly Sunday.

This means nasty weather in the way of periods of rain and gusty northeast winds will continue right into this weekend along the coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina and South Carolina.

The evolution and track of this low pressure system will be monitored closely over the next several days and I will have updates for you as conditions warrant, especially if it starts to evolve into a sub-tropical or tropical storm.

The Gulf Of Mexico: I will also be monitoring the Gulf of Mexico throughout this week right into at least this weekend as a high pressure system over the northeastern United States causes a persistent easterly wind flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico throughout this week through this coming weekend. At the same time, a frontal boundary which is now stretched across the northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through at least late this week and may lead to the formation of a low pressure system by late this week or this weekend somewhere over the western or northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

What may happen, according to some of the global models, is that an elongated low pressure system may form around Friday or Saturday over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico that tracks northward into Louisiana by Monday.

The more high resolution models such as the NAM model points to that low pressure may form instead over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 25 North Latitude and 88 West Longitude by Friday. Looking closer at the NAM model, it appears the energy and moisture that may form this low pressure system could come from an area of disturbed weather now located just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Given the favorable pattern of large high pressure over the northeastern United States and a frontal boundary across the Gulf of Mexico, any low pressure system that does form in the Gulf of Mexico will need to be watched very closely for potential tropical development.

Regardless of whether a low pressure system forms or not, a persistent easterly wind flow will bring higher than average tides and increased chances for rain to the east facing shores along the coasts of the Florida Panhandle and along the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana from Wednesday through this coming weekend. Higher than average tides and increased chances for rain are also forecast across the Texas coastline from Wednesday through this coming weekend.

A Quiet First Day of Fall for the Tropics
Jeff Masters

2:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2014

In the Atlantic, none of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis shows anything developing over the next five days. A tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa on Friday may be something to watch for development next week, according to the GFS model, but it is too early to assign any probabilities of such an event occurring.

In the Eastern Pacific, a well-organized tropical disturbance (99E) a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico was given 5-day odds of development of 90% by NHC in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Our reliable computer models keep 99E well offshore of the coast of Mexico this week as the storm heads west-northwest, parallel to the coast of Mexico

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 11:37 AM)