Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 24, 2014

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, October 24, 2014

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

6:00 am EST on October 24, 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The system is expected to move eastward across northern Belize this morning and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by this afternoon, and it has a small chance of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

48 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Quiet for Now

10/24/2014 9:42:20 AM

The remnants of Tropical Depression 9 continue to bring shower and thunderstorm activity to the southern Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected to gradually work its way into the Caribbean, though re-development appears to be unlikely at this point.

Elsewhere, a non-tropical disturbance is expected to ride along a cold front and bring the threat for heavy rainfall to the Florida Keys and Bahamas on Friday. By late Saturday, the threat for heavy rainfall will shift towards Bermuda.

120 Hour Forecast Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Tropical Depression #9 Weakens Into A Low Pressure System Over The Yucatan Peninsula But Will Still Move Into The Northwestern Caribbean By This Weekend
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Thursday, October 23, 2014 9:19 am

Satellite imagery and radar data from the Yucatan Peninsula indicates that whatever is left of Tropical Depression #9 is now inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops indicates some deep convection just northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula and also near central Cuba. This thunderstorm activity appears to be connected to a combination of what is left of TD 9, a non-tropical low pressure system that is trying to form near the lower part of the Florida Keys and a frontal boundary that is draped from the central and southern Gulf of Mexico through south Florida.

It is expected that the non-tropical low pressure system will push east-northeastward near south Florida and across the northern Bahamas over the next couple of days. This means that additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected from today through Saturday across south Florida, the Florida Keys and across the northwestern Bahamas. After Saturday, that non-tropical low pressure system is expected to scoot off to the northeast out into the open Atlantic without any sort of tropical development.

As for what is left of Tropical Depression #9, it appears likely that it will continue tracking eastward across the Yucatan Peninsula from today into Friday before emerging into the northwestern Caribbean by later Friday or Saturday. The overall model guidance have all but dropped the idea of regeneration and strengthening of this system when it gets into the northwestern Caribbean. The reason seems to be the forecast of dry air sinking into the northwestern Caribbean and some westerly wind shear will prevent regeneration.

What is “interesting” is that the models that are normally very aggressive with tropical cyclone formation like the Canadian and GFS models show little or no development from the remains of TD 9 and basically show it to remain a very weak low pressure system that never develops and also forecasts it to remain nearly stationary in the northwestern Caribbean for at least the next week.

Meanwhile, the models, such as the European model, which are normally very conservative with tropical cyclone development, forecasts that the remains of TD 9 to try and regenerate some in the northwestern Caribbean to perhaps a tropical depression again or even a low end tropical storm by this weekend before it weakens again as it tracks northwestward towards the southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Lastly, not all of the models have dropped the idea of tropical cyclone regeneration in the northwestern Caribbean. The FIM model forecasts that TD 9 will regenerate into a tropical cyclone this weekend as it tracks near the Gulf of Honduras. The FIM model then goes on to forecast that this system, which appears to be a upper end tropical storm, will track northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean reaching the Yucatan Channel around Tuesday and then pushing into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday of next week.

My Thoughts: Even though many of the model guidance members have dropped the idea of TD 9 regenerating in the northwestern Caribbean, I want to keep a very close eye on this system while it is in the northwestern Caribbean starting this weekend. The model guidance over the past 24 hours should be considered suspect and there is a reason why for this:

Back during the late afternoon hours of October 20th, many of the satellite feeds that go into NOAA and the National Weather Service failed. I have learned since then that this data outage may have affected the performance and accuracy of many of the American models, including the GFS, NAM and HRRR models. What is suspect is that the GFS model suddenly dropped the idea of a tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean yesterday morning while the European model (not affected by the satellite outage) actually became a little more aggressive with its hints of tropical development. I’m questioning the validity of the American model data and think that much of the guidance data from yesterday was garbage, especially yesterday afternoon’s and last night’s GFS model data.

Since then, the satellite feed seems to have been restored and this fresh data will be fed into today’s model data.

So, it is of my opinion that I want to keep a close eye on what is left of TD 9 this weekend when it is in the northwestern Caribbean. I am reluctantly calling for a low chance of the regeneration of TD 9, however, as I had mentioned in my previous updates, this setup of possible tropical development continues to have a high degree of uncertainty and it warrants close scrutiny.

Tropical Depression Nine Dissipates
Jeff Masters

1:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2014

Small and weak Tropical Depression Nine dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night, shortly after making landfall near 8 pm EDT Wednesday October 22, 2014 on the western shore of the peninsula. Mexican radar out of Sabancuy and satellite loops show that ex-TD 9 is bringing some heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters, and this activity will continue into the weekend. By Saturday, some of the spin associated with TD 9 may emerge over the Western Caribbean, and we should carefully watch this area on Sunday and Monday for tropical cyclone development--though none of our reliable models were predicting development in their Thursday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. will inject a large amount of dry air into the Western Caribbean this weekend, discouraging development, and wind shear is expected to be a rather high 15 - 25 knots, which should keep any development slow. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.

Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 9 in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, October 22, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific disturbance may develop
An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border may end up impacting whether or not a tropical depression can form in the Western Caribbean from ex-TD 9. The Eastern Pacific disturbance is close enough to the Western Caribbean to compete for energy and moisture, and upper-level outflow from the Eastern Pacific storm could bring high wind shear over the Western Caribbean. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the Eastern Pacific disturbance by early next week, and in their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 50%, respectively. The storm will move slowly northwards, and will likely bring heavy rains to the coast of Mexico and Guatemala this weekend.

Arabian Sea disturbance may develop
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, an area of disturbed weather (Invest 90A) has formed, and our top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and European models, have been consistently predicting in recent runs that this disturbance will develop into a significant tropical cyclone by early next week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives the disturbance a low chance of developing by Friday, but notes conditions are favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, excellent upper-level outflow, and very warm ocean temperatures of 28 - 29C (82 - 84F.) The storm will head slowly northwards over the next week, and is not a threat to make landfall for at least five days.

Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Invest 90A in the Arabian Sea on Thursday morning, October 23, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression #9 Forms Expected to Stay Weak but a Big Rain Maker

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (32 minutes 10 seconds ago)