Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: May 30, 2016

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Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, May 30, 2016

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.


Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

May 30, 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Bonnie, located about 50 nm SW of Myrtle Beach South Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...
Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 33.0n 79.5w at 30/0900 UTC or about 25 nm ENE of Charleston South Carolina and about 50 nm SW of Myrtle Beach South Carolina moving NE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 75 nm of center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat2/wtnt22 knhc for more details.

...Tropical waves...
Tropical wave extends from 03n09w to 11n12w moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 08w and 14w and 700 mb relative vorticity extending along the wave axis. Active convection has occurred the past few evenings with the wave...however only isolated moderate convection is occurring from 02n to 08n between 09w and 15w west of the wave axis as it moves off the coast of Africa this morning.

Tropical wave extends from 05n30w to 11n23w moving W at 15 kt. The wave is likely the result of slower energy associated with the tropical wave to the west along 44w. This wave is noted in 700 mb global model fields to the west of a low to mid-level easterly jet on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the Cape Verde Islands. No significant deep convection is occurring in the vicinity of the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 03n44w to 10n42w moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 40w and 50w on the far southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is likely to weaken during the next couple days as it approaches the South American continent with any remaining energy merging with the tropical wave to the east along 32w. No significant deep convection is occurring in the vicinity of the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 03n72w to 12n73w moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains embedded within 700 mb troughing over northeastern South America and portions of the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is from 09n to 13n between 70w and 74w.

Caribbean Sea... ...

The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over Cuba and the Windward Passage region providing the NW Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow influencing much of the basin W of 78w. Conditions W of 78w remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring SW of Jamaica near 17n81w. E of 78w...maximum middle to upper level diffluence associated with the troughing over the SW north Atlc is providing for scattered showers and tstms N of 15n between 68w and 79w. The upper level trough will gradually lift N of 20n by Monday night...however upper level troughing will persist over the SW north Atlc off the coast of Florida with a relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E of 75w across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands through Tuesday night. This will result in increased probabilities of precipitation through the middle of next week across the north-central and NE Caribbean.

Weather Underground Caribbean Forecast

Tropical cyclone development is not anticipated across the eastern Pacific on Tuesday, while the tropics remain active in the Atlantic Basin. Tropical Depression Bonnie is now located approximately 25 nautical miles north northeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Bonnie was downgraded to a tropical depression over the past 24 hours, with maximum wind speeds at 35 mph (30 kts). The forecast track for Bonnie takes this system northeastward over the Carolinas and the western Atlantic. Bonnie will likely maintain tropical depression strength through Tuesday, with wind speeds staying below 39 mph (33 kts). High surf and stormy weather will continue to affect the east coast of the United States.


48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Bonnie moving slowly along South Carolina coast
Accuweather

5/30/2016 5:00:48 AM

Tropical Storm Bonnie is located at 33 N, -79.5 W with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph

Bonnie made landfall along the South Carolina coastline around 8:30 a.m. EDT on Sunday. The center came ashore on the Isle of Palms which is located just to the east of Charleston, South Carolina. Bonnie is currently located along the South Carolina coast, just northeast of Charleston and is drifting slowly northeastward.

Bonnie will very slowly track northeast into Wednesday morning before speeding up and moving back off the coast around the Outer Banks in North Carolina.

The main impacts will be heavy rainfall, rough surf and strong rip currents from the Carolina coast north to the New England coast. Locally heavy rainfall is currently extending northward across the mid-Atlantic states tonight and into southern New England. Additional heavy rain will redevelop today in North Carolina and move north into tonight.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are possible from eastern North Carolina, through southeastern Virginia, and into the Delmarva Peninsula today, with 1-2 inches of rain possible in southern New Jersey northward to southern New England and also eastern South Carolina.



120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Bonnie Has Made Landfall Just East Of Charleston, SC & Will Continue To Bring Heavy Rains To Eastern Georgia & A Good Part Of South & North Carolina Today; Beyond Bonnie, We Will Need To Watch The Northwestern Caribbean & Eastern Gulf Of Mexico For Tropical Development During The Week Of June 5th
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

May 29, 2016

Tropical Depression Bonnie:

The center of Tropical Depression Bonnie has made landfall just east of Charleston, South Carolina, on the Isle of Palms. Bonnie is forecast to track northward across northeastern South Carolina today before turning east-northeastward and tracking along the coast of southeastern and eastern North Carolina from Monday through Wednesday. All the while, Bonnie will continue to weaken and become a remnant low pressure system by late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Impacts For Eastern Georgia, South Carolina & North Carolina:
Rainfall: Heavy rain will continue to be the main impact from Bonnie across much of South Carolina, eastern Georgia and southeastern North Carolina. This rain, which will fall heavily, is expected to continue throughout today and tonight across eastern Georgia, much of South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina with additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches expected on top of what has already fallen. Up to 6 inches and perhaps more than that could occur from eastern Georgia through central southeastern South Carolina to about the Charleston area.

This heavy rainfall is forecast to spread into the Mid-Atlantic states and Northeastern United States by tonight and continuing through Monday with rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches expected from southern New England and southeastern New York State southward through the Philadelphia and Washington, DC corridor.

The area that is at greatest risk for additional flooding will be across southeastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina from about Savannah to Charleston.

Winds: Some gusty winds will continue across coastal areas of South Carolina throughout today and these winds will diminish by tonight and especially on Monday.

Rough Surf: This system is expected to produce life-threatening rough surf and rip currents along a good part of the southeastern United States from Stuart and Vero Beach, Florida northward to the outer banks of North Carolina. Please heed the advice of your local beach patrol and flag warning systems. If their advice is to stay out of the water or if you have doubts whether there are rip currents occurring, then stay out of the water as this decision could save your life.

This will be the last update on Bonnie so that I can start really concentrating on the potential for tropical development in the western Caribbean and the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the week of June 5th. For the latest information on Bonnie, you can go to the storm specific page at http://crownweather.com/index.php/active-storms/bonnie/.



Model Track Forecast For Bonnie:
Courtesy of South Florida Water Management District
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Model Intensity Forecast For Bonnie:
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Satellite Imagery Of Bonnie:
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division
Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

Radar Imagery:



The Western Caribbean & The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico May See Tropical Development During The Week Of June 5th: The next area we are going to have to closely keep an eye on will be in an area from the northwestern Caribbean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as an easterly low-level wind surge pushes into the western Caribbean next weekend. This wind surge will lead to low-level convergence in the western Caribbean and the potential for an area of low pressure to spin up in the western Caribbean as soon as next Sunday or next Monday (June 5th or 6th). The overall weather pattern during the week of June 5th signals that anything that does develop in the western and northwestern Caribbean will be pulled north-northeastward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and potentially right across the Florida Peninsula.

This idea continues to be supported by the various model guidance, including the GFS and European model guidance. In addition, the ensemble tropical cyclone probabilities from the European model guidance is currently forecasting a 30 to 40 chance for tropical development from the western Caribbean northeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico between June 5th and June 8th. In addition, the GFS ensemble guidance continues to hint that a low pressure system may form near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by June 5th and 6th with some of the ensemble members forecasting a northeast track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by June 8th or 9th.

Even though this is something that I am keeping an eye on, the idea of tropical development from the western Caribbean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico is certainly not a sure thing and right now it is something that has a low chance to happen. With that said, I will be keeping you updated on the latest regarding this possibility throughout this coming week.




Bonnie Dies
Jeff Masters

4:10 PM GMT on May 30, 2016

Tropical Depression Bonnie was declared post-tropical by NHC at 11 am EDT Monday, but the remains of Bonnie will continue to bring additional rainfall of 1 - 3" to eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, and southeast Virginia through Wednesday. As of Monday morning, Bonnie had already brought total rainfall of more than 8 inches over portions of south-central South Carolina. Bonnie made landfall on the coast of South Carolina just east of Charleston at 8:30 am EDT Sunday morning as a tropical depression with top winds of 35 mph. Bonnie spent just 18 hours as a tropical storm, reaching peak intensity of 45 mph sustained winds on Saturday night when the center of the storm lingered over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.


Figure 1. Two-day rainfall amounts from Bonnie for the period ending at 10 am EDT May 30, 2016.

Bonnie's legacy
The 2016 version of Tropical Storm Bonnie was the seventh incarnation of the storm, which made its first appearance back in 1980. My very first flight into a hurricane with the Hurricane Hunters was into the 1986 version of Hurricane Bonnie, which made landfall on the Upper Texas coast as a Category 1 storm--but wasn't powerful enough to cause notable damage. None of the versions of Bonnie over the years have been strong enough to get the name Bonnie retired, and this year's meager effort assures that there will be an eighth appearance of Bonnie in 2022. Only five other Atlantic storms have had more appearances than Bonnie--Arlene with ten (1959 - TS; 1963 - H2; 1967 - H1; 1971 - TS; 1981 - TS; 1987 - H1; 1993 - TS; 1999 - TS; 2005 - TS; 2011 - TS), Florence with nine (1953 - H3; 1954 - TS; 1960 - TS; 1964 - TS; 1988 - H1; 1994 - H2; 2000 - H1; 2006 - H1; 2012 - TS), Cindy with eight (1959 - H1; 1963 - H1; 1981 - TS; 1987 - TS; 1993 - TS; 1999 - H4; 2005 - H1; 2011 - TS), Dolly with eight (1953 – H1; 1954 – H1; 1968 - H1; 1974 - TS; 1996 - H1; 2002 - TS; 2008 - H2; 2014 - TS), and Frances with eight (1961 - H3; 1968 - TS; 1976 - H3; 1980 - H3; 1986 - H1; 1992 - H1; 1998 - TS; 2004 - H4, RETIRED). Thanks go to wunderground member Mark Cole for these stats.


Tropical Depression #2 Forms – Primary Threat Heavy Rain and Dangerous Coastal Waters



CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)


Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image





Edited by Marty (Today at 10:34 AM)