Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 25, 2016

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, October 25, 2016

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

October 25, 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

...Tropical waves...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37w/38w from 15n southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 03n to 10n between 30w and 40w.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61w/62w from 17n southward to Venezuela, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12n to 16n between 60w and 64w.

A surface trough is along 59w from 10n to 17n. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10n to 24n between 56w and 60w.

Caribbean Sea...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the east of the Hispaniola-to-13n73w upper level trough.

Convective precipitation: numerous strong off the coast of Colombia from 09n to 11n between the Colombia and 78w. Isolated moderate to the south of the numerous strong precipitation, in the Gulf of uraba.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 25/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American temperature and precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01 0.71 in Guadeloupe.

A deep layer trough passes through 32n69w to 28n70w, across Hispaniola, into the Caribbean Sea near 13n73w. A stationary front passes through 32n57w to 29n60w, to 22n70w and se Cuba. A shear line continues from se Cuba to 19n78w and 15n83w. A surface trough is to the ESE of the stationary front in the Atlantic Ocean, from 28n60w 24n62w and 19n67w. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11n to 19n between 78w and 87w, in the waters. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16n to 25n between 64w and 75w, around Hispaniola and Cuba, and to the E and se of the southeastern Bahamas. Isolated moderate elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 19n northward between 56w and 73w.

Weather Underground Caribbean Forecast

Tropical cyclone development is not anticipated across the Atlantic Basin on Wednesday, while the tropics remain active in the eastern Pacific. Hurricane Seymour is located approximately 391 nautical miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Seymour was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane over the past 24 hours, with maximum wind speeds at 75 mph (65 kts). The forecast track for Hurricane Seymour takes this system west northwestward over the Pacific. By Wednesday, Seymour is expected to be upgraded to a category 2 hurricane. Wind speeds are forecast to range between 96 to 110 mph (83 to 95 kts). High surf will affect parts of southwest Mexico, although little to no impacts are expected across any major land masses.

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

No tropical development expected through the next five days

10/25/2016 4:01:23 AM

A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is encountering strong wind shear and will not develop into a tropical system. No development is expected across the Atlantic Basin through at least Friday of this week.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

US & Caribbean Weather Outlook For Monday October 24
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

October 24, 2016

A combination of strong shear, cooling sea-surface temperatures and regions of dry, stable air will prevent tropical development across the Atlantic Basin through at least this weekend and perhaps through early next week. A decrease in shear over the Caribbean could make that area of the basin a more favorable area for tropical development next week.

In the tropical Atlantic
Jeff Masters

October 24, 2016

For the first time in a long time, we’re looking at a quiet week across the tropical Atlantic. NHC expects no tropical cyclone formation through Wednesday. Among ensemble guidance from 00Z Monday, the GFS ensemble continues to favor the development of a tropical depression well east of the Lesser Antilles this week, but the European ensemble shows less than a 10% chance of this outcome, and none of the leading operational models (GFS, Euro, and UKMET) show any significant development. Climatology also leans away from development in the open tropical Atlantic by late October.

[Monday] Subtropical Development Possible this Week Between Bahamas and Bermuda – No Immediate Threat

An upper-level trough east of Florida is generating a region of disturbed weather near and east of the southeastern Bahamas. Such a system could gradually organize into a subtropical low between the Bahamas and Bermuda during the course of this week, but development would be slow to occur. The system poses no immediate threat, but wet weather could continue to impact portions of the Bahamas over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical storm over the next 2 days, and 50% over the next 5 days.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Edited by Marty (Today at 06:07 AM)