Portofino Resort- Now with a new BEACH BAR!!
Topic Options
#3997 - 10/02/00 09:51 PM Mon, 2pm Official Reports
Marty Offline
<img align=left width=150 height=98 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/loopmon2psm.gif"><img align=right width=150 height=169 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/goes15sm.jpg"> HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2000

RECON FOUND 76 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH GIVES 60-65 KT AT THE SURFACE
USING STANDARD REDUCTIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP KEITH A HURRICANE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. RECON AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT
KEITH IS CREEPING TO THE WEST...BUT IS STILL OVER WATER. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER LAND.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT HAPPENING AS FAST AS FORECAST...AND
THE DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN CUBA...WHICH IS NOT WELL INITIALIZED IN
EITHER THE AVN OR UKMET...IS PROBABLY INTERFERING WITH THE RIDGING
PROCESS. THE AVN ALSO HAS BEEN INITIALIZING KEITH IN THE WRONG
PLACE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NOT AS FAST TO THE NORTHWEST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE UKMET WHICH TAKES KEITH TO THE TEXAS COAST IN 72 HOURS.
<br clear=all>
<img align=right width=250 height=179 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bigonemon2p.jpg">
ASSUMING KEITH EVER MOVES INLAND...IT WILL LIKELY SPEND AT LEAST 24
HOURS OVER LAND. GIVE THE SMALL WIND ENVELOPE...IT IS NOT CLEAR
THAT MUCH WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IN 48-
72 HOURS...AND SO WE LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL
RECOVERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
 INITIAL     02/2100Z 17.7N  88.0W    65 KTS
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 17.8N  88.2W    55 KTS
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 18.9N  88.8W    45 KTS...INLAND
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.4N  89.3W    30 KTS...INLAND
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  90.0W    35 KTS
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N  92.5W    60 KTS
  
</font>

Top
#3998 - 10/02/00 10:22 PM Re: Mon, 2pm Official Reports
Marty Offline
HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2000


...KEITH CREEPING WESTWARD...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE IN BELIZE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO. THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35
KM...NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.

KEITH IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KEITH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 10 TO 15 INCHES. THERE HAS
BEEN A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF OVER 14 INCHES AT THE BELIZE AIRPORT.


REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...17.7 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Top
#3999 - 10/02/00 10:24 PM Re: Mon, 2pm Official Reports
Marty Offline
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...17.7 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB

still sitting right over san pedro

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

3-6 feet sounds manageable

Top
#4000 - 10/03/00 12:13 AM Re: Mon, 2pm Official Reports
Marty Offline
-

Top
#4001 - 10/03/00 12:44 AM Re: Mon, 2pm Official Reports
Barbara K Offline
Thanks Marty for the updating!
_________________________
www.barbsbelize.com

Top

Links
Click for excellent scuba lessons with Elbert Greer!


Things to do

News
Daily News
Daily Weather

Classified Ads
BelizeNews.com
San Pedro Sun
Ambergris Today
SP Town Council
Channel 7
Channel 5
Amandala
Love FM
The Reporter
Caye Caulker
Chronicles

PLUS TV
TV Newscasts
Radio Stations

Click for our
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites

Event Guides
Event Calendar
Specials & Events
Things to Do
SanPedroScoop
iTravel Belize
Paradise Theater

Blogs
San Pedro Scoop!
Tia Chocolate
Tacogirl
My Beautiful Belize
I-Travel Belize
Belize Adventure
Belize Hub
Romantic Travel
Bound for Belize
Conch Creative
As The Coconuts Drop
More Blogs...
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites
Chaa Creek is an award-winning luxury Belize Resort, rated as one of the worlds best Eco Lodges. We are a pioneer in adventure travel to Belize since 1981!
White Sands Dive Shop - 5 Star PADI Dive Facility - Daily diving, SCUBA instruction and Snorkeling
Caribbean Inspired All Natural Condiments & Spice Blends, Over 100 are Gluten Free!
We manage a variety of homes, apartments, condos and commercial properties here on Ambergris Caye. Our minimum lease on ALL properties is six months.
Conch Shell Inn: All rooms are right on the beach in the heart of San Pedro, so within walking distance to anything and everything!!
Lilí Alphonse has snorkel equipment to fit anyone as well as Marine Park Tickets and flotation devices to assist those not as experienced.
Coastal Xpress offers a daily scheduled ferry run to most resorts, restaurants and private piers on the island of Anbergris Caye. We also offer  private and charter water taxi service.
Mini Chat

Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
December
S M T W T F S
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Who's Online
0 registered (), 40 Guests and 5 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Stats
18,670 Registered Members
44 Forums
64,015 Topics
462,191 Posts

Most users ever online: 1,262 @ 06/10/07 07:16 PM




AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com SanPedroDaily.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.