Combination Of A Departing Trough & MJO Upward Motion Pulse May Lead To Tropical Development In The Western Caribbean Between May 24 & June 1

Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather

I wanted to post something before going into the weekend regarding my continuing belief that the combination of a upward motion pulse in the Madden Julian Oscillation and a departing large trough of low pressure may cause lowering barometric pressures, a decrease in vertical wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures and increased thunderstorm activity in the western half of the Caribbean. This simply all means that I continue to believe that tropical development is possible in the western Caribbean in a 8 day window surrounding Memorial Day weekend.

So, this will be something I will be keeping an eye on over the coming days and I will keep you all updated.

Forecast Upper-Air Pattern Evolution During The Week Of May 23rd:

Madden Julian Oscillation Forecast Evolution Over The Next Few Weeks:

What a crock. I hope.

Yeah..what does Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather know?

Remember Arthur struck May 31

No I don't remember an Arthur??
How long ago was that?
Looked it up 2008 Southern Belize got it, probably why I don't remember.

20 inches or so of rain could really replenish my well.

That would be sweet.

It takes a very bold forecaster to predict a storm this far in advance ...... that being said, it's a good reminder to clean the gutters, check the boat-bilge and service the gene. All stuff we need to do anyway but sometimes forget.

Well today is the 22nd and my week is booked heavy,I could make some money,pay some bills and make a lot of people happy... Sooooo what could Murphy do here?
I would like to get an update!
I need something to worry about besides the end of the world and transcontinental tsunamis.
How about it Rob whats it going to be?

Do not invoke the wrath of the Gods Elbert!

Quiet In The Tropics For At Least The Next Few Days; European & GFS Model Guidance Continue To Hint At Disturbed Weather With Lowering Pressures In The Southwest Caribbean Starting Late Next Week

Rob Lightbown on May 20, 2011, 6:59 am

The tropical Atlantic is quiet this morning with no development expected for at least the next several days. After that, however, the southwestern Caribbean may need to be watched as more of the model guidance members are strongly hinting at lowering pressures in the southwestern Caribbean starting as early as next Friday and continuing through the Memorial Day weekend and into the first of June. In addition, the ensemble guidance also supports the operational models in forecasting lowering pressures in the southwest Caribbean starting late next week; in fact, the ensemble guidance is hinting at two waves of lowering pressures. The first during the Memorial Day weekend and the second right around June 3rd and 4th.

The first wave of lowering pressures in the southwestern Caribbean may stem from a tropical wave that is currently over inland portions of South America. This tropical wave may track into the southwestern Caribbean over the next few days and cause a sort of buildup in energy and moisture in the southwestern Caribbean. At the same time (around late next week), the upper air pattern would strongly suggest a situational type of development where higher pressure over northeastern North America would translate to a lowering of pressures over the southwestern Caribbean.

Given all of these potential factors, there are two chances in the next couple of weeks for an outside chance of some sort of tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean/ The first chance is late next week into Memorial Day weekend and the second chance is right around the weekend of June 4/5.

Finally, it should be noted that wind shear values are forecast to become favorable for development across the Caribbean in about a week which adds another piece to the puzzle that supports the idea of the outside chance of tropical development in about a week or so from now.

This is from the 20th and Rob is Belizean so when he says 'Memorial Day ' he means May 30th?
It sure is a gorgeous day outside.
Sorry Rob, you blew it again!

Rob is in Maine, USA
Elbert, your reading comprehension problem is showing up again...

US memorial day is the 28th of May, so were still in a count down.
Todays Monday the 23rd so Saturday then!
Yep my calender is packed for the weekend.

US Memorial Day is May 30th, always a Monday.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 1:35 PM EDT on May 23, 2011
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A surface low located about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is
associated with a mid- to upper-level low pressure system. Shower
and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized due to strong
upper-level winds...and any development of this system should be
slow to occur. There is a low chance...20 percent...of this system
becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves
toward the east or east-southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Additional
information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc. Another special outlook will
be issued Tuesday...or sooner if necessary.