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#407720 - 05/13/11 10:51 PM Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1?
Marty Offline

Combination Of A Departing Trough & MJO Upward Motion Pulse May Lead To Tropical Development In The Western Caribbean Between May 24 & June 1

Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather

I wanted to post something before going into the weekend regarding my continuing belief that the combination of a upward motion pulse in the Madden Julian Oscillation and a departing large trough of low pressure may cause lowering barometric pressures, a decrease in vertical wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures and increased thunderstorm activity in the western half of the Caribbean. This simply all means that I continue to believe that tropical development is possible in the western Caribbean in a 8 day window surrounding Memorial Day weekend.

So, this will be something I will be keeping an eye on over the coming days and I will keep you all updated.

Forecast Upper-Air Pattern Evolution During The Week Of May 23rd:

Madden Julian Oscillation Forecast Evolution Over The Next Few Weeks:


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#407722 - 05/13/11 10:54 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]
belizeonthebeach Offline
What a crock. I hope.

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#407723 - 05/13/11 10:57 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: belizeonthebeach]
SP Daily Offline
Originally Posted By: belizeonthebeach
What a crock. I hope.

Yeah..what does Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather know?

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#407724 - 05/13/11 11:06 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]
Katie Valk Offline
Remember Arthur struck May 31


Edited by Katie Valk (05/14/11 01:12 AM)
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#407726 - 05/13/11 11:08 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]
elbert Offline
No I don't remember an Arthur??
How long ago was that?
Looked it up 2008 Southern Belize got it, probably why I don't remember.


Edited by elbert (05/13/11 11:10 PM)
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#407727 - 05/13/11 11:12 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]
elbert Offline
20 inches or so of rain could really replenish my well.
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The Dive Shops Daily Blog
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#407729 - 05/13/11 11:20 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]
Amanda Syme Offline
That would be sweet.

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#407762 - 05/14/11 01:23 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]
Diane Campbell Offline
It takes a very bold forecaster to predict a storm this far in advance ...... that being said, it's a good reminder to clean the gutters, check the boat-bilge and service the gene. All stuff we need to do anyway but sometimes forget.

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#408473 - 05/23/11 12:39 AM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]
elbert Offline
Well today is the 22nd and my week is booked heavy,I could make some money,pay some bills and make a lot of people happy... Sooooo what could Murphy do here?
I would like to get an update!
I need something to worry about besides the end of the world and transcontinental tsunamis.
How about it Rob whats it going to be?
_________________________
The Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/

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#408474 - 05/23/11 01:32 AM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]
Amanda Syme Offline
Do not invoke the wrath of the Gods Elbert!

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