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#413892 - 08/15/11 12:57 PM Invest 93 - maybe, maybe not
Diane Campbell Offline
From Crown Weather - Monday:

Invest 93L Located To The East Of The Lesser Antilles:
Satellite imagery this morning showed some deep convection developing around what was Invest 93L now located between 50 and 55 West Longitude. Analysis of ocean water temperatures reveals that this disturbance has just entered ocean water temperatures warmer than 84 degrees Fahrenheit. The combination of a more favorable upper level environment and these warmer ocean water temperatures are likely the reasons for the marked increase in convection this morning. A view of the water vapor satellite loops shows that there is a lot of dry air surrounding this disturbance and any development that does occur will be slow to happen.
Neither the GFS or European model guidance forecasts development of 93L and they both keep it a tropical wave which eventually tracks into Central America on Friday. Now, the NAM model has been fairly insistent on forecasting the development of this system. The current forecast run of the NAM model forecasts that 93L will track across Barbados today and then across the southern Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands tonight into Tuesday, which I do agree with. The NAM model then forecasts that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone as we get into Wednesday and for it to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm on Thursday with it beginning to impact Jamaica during Thursday afternoon.
The NOGAPS model forecasts that 93L will develop into a tropical cyclone once it reaches the west-central Caribbean just south of Jamaica on Thursday and then forecasts it to impact Central America and Belize as a fairly weak tropical storm this coming weekend.
Here are my thoughts on 93L: Even though we are seeing a marked increase in convection this morning that development of Invest 93L will be slow to occur and the NAM modelís forecast should not be trusted. Why?? The eastern Caribbean is essentially a desert in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere and once this disturbance starts trying to develop and intensify it will likely suck in this dry air and weaken. So, I really do not think 93L will become a tropical depression over at least the next couple of days, however, it will bring strong gusty winds, choppy seas and heavy rainfall across Barbados, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands from today through Tuesday.
I do think that 93L will find a more favorable environment for development once it reaches the central and western Caribbean later this week and this is when we may see it organize into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. Given this, it would probably track west-northwestward right into Central America and Belize this coming weekend as a tropical depression or perhaps a tropical storm.
As it stands right now, 93L is not a immediate concern and there is the possibility that it may never develop. With that said, this disturbance will be watched closely this week and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

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#413958 - 08/16/11 12:14 PM Re: Invest 93 - maybe, maybe not [Re: Diane Campbell]
Diane Campbell Offline
And again today ...... Crown Weather posts below - computer models moved up the potential arrival date to Friday, but dampened down the force of the storm a bit.

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Invest 93L Located In The Eastern Caribbean:
As I thought would happen, the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 93L has diminished greatly over the eastern Caribbean this morning due to very dry air across this region. Development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm is not expected as it tracks across the eastern and central Caribbean from today through Wednesday. Once Invest 93L reaches the western Caribbean later Thursday into Friday, the chances of development will increase as it encounters a more favorable environment; in fact, the latest European model guidance forecasts 93L to become a tropical cyclone by Thursday evening over the western Caribbean.
So, it is of my opinion that Invest 93L will develop into a tropical depression and very possibly a tropical storm by Thursday night and especially on Friday. As for a track, it seems likely that 93L will track west to west-northwest south of Jamaica on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a tropical disturbance and then impact northern Belize and the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday night into Saturday morning as a possible tropical storm (Harvey??). After that, this system is currently forecast to be steered by high pressure to its north and thus track west-northwestward across the Bay of Campeche on Saturday night and Sunday and potentially impact the eastern coast of Mexico between Tuxpan and Veracruz as a tropical storm Sunday night into Monday.
So, I will continue to keep a close eye on Invest 93L and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

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#413960 - 08/16/11 01:32 PM Re: Invest 93 - maybe, maybe not [Re: Diane Campbell]
Diane Campbell Offline
Current computer runs give a sense of - somewhere on the coast of Belize, Friday night, strength - somewhere from storm to cat 1


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