There is a tropical wave over the west central Caribbean this evening - and it is one that bears watching because it is south of Jamaica, or southeast of Belize in open waters.
It is not a storm at this time, but this evening, forecasters are saying that it has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
We spoke to Chief Met Officer Dennis Gonguez about what level of awareness Belizeans should exercise as we continue to monitor this disturbance:
Dennis Gonguez - Chief Meterological Officer, Belize Met Services "At this moment, there is a fairly active tropical wave located some 930 miles east of Belize. And although we're seeing some circulation at about 7,000 - 10,000 feet, the circulation has not translated down to the surface as yet. However, as the system heads more westward toward our area, conditions become more conducive for development. So we should see that 30% probability for development as time goes by. Within the next 24 to 36 hours, quite possibly, we could be seeing a tropical depression to the south of Jamaica."
Monica Bodden "What is the worst-case scenario?"
Dennis Gonguez Well, the system is moving pretty fast at about 15 - 20 miles per hour. If it continues at that pace, then the development process will be a bit slower. So the worst-case scenario, at this time as it looks, would be a tropical depression, or a weak tropical storm. In any event, whether the system develops or not, we can expect some rains over the weekend - some significant amount of rain. Pay attention to the the system, and the Met Service in its regular broadcast, will be giving updates as it moves toward us. So, it's not a reason to be worried at this time, but be alert and aware that something is out there, and there could potential for it to develop."
The 6:00 pm report from the National Hurricane Center says that, quote
"AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION."
And while that is good news, the report adds that
"THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO."
The report concludes that, quote:
"THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH."
We'll keep watching - and you should too starting with tonight's weather report - which is coming up later on in the news.
The first tropical storm threatening to affect Belize for 2011has surfaced in the western Caribbean. At this point the tropical wave, which some models have crossing over Belize, will be named Harvey when it garners tropical storm force strength. It is currently churning in the Caribbean along a westerly direction and is expected to cross over Belize by Friday afternoon. Today Love News spoke with Chief Meteorologist, Dennis Gonguez and Chairperson of the National Emergency Management Organization, Noreen Fairweather, to get a detailed update of the storm’s movement and preparedness efforts.
Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist “We could see some as it nears our country. The likelihood is that we could see a tropical depression within 24 hours or a weak tropical storm approaching our country by the weekend. Again there is some uncertainty to that until we receive data back from the hurricane hunters. The present track forecast, there is a large variation the track forecast; some models put it as far north as Cancun and some as far south as central Nicaragua so there is a big spread in the forecast track. In any event Belize sits somewhere between Cancun and northern Nicaragua so we need to pay attention to this system as it tracts towards the west.”
Noreen Fairweather, National Coordinator, NEMO “We will activate if the system becomes a potential threat to Belize so as it nears us we will look at not so much time and space, if it is moving at a certain speed, we will look and see how it develops and in what form it will reach Belize and as it nears us then we put our various levels of alert into place. Hopefully it’s not a major system when it nears our shores, but if it is whatever form it reaches us in then we will have that level of alert to the people out there for them to be aware. The main thing is for them to listen to the advisories. Once we know that there is the need to have a shelter open that will not be determined just before the storm hits, on the advice that we get from the met office they will determine whether or not we need to have shelters open so those arrangements will be in place. Hopefully people heed our warnings in terms of entering the shelters; the shelters are there it has been published if we need to use them. Those arrangements are in place where we have our various responsibilities in terms of the committees and their personnel, they secure access to the building well ahead of time and have the shelters open well ahead of time, and have the shelters open when the need arises. We have an evacuation plan where people will go to shelter if it is internally, within their various communities or externally where they go will go for safe shelter, that is there.”
Fairweather says that if the storm does become an imminent threat, transportation will be provided free of cost in the areas that need to be evacuated.
The Belize Meteorological Department has just sent out a press release with an update for Invest 93-L (tropical wave disturbance) currently in the eastern Caribbean. On its projected track, Invest 93-L will be near northern Belize or southern Yucatan by Saturday morning, August 20, 2011. Regardless if it develops into a tropical storm or not, Invest 93-L will bring an end to the August dry spell or maga season or "caniculas" and could produce rainfall and runoff conducive to flashfloods and inundations. Remain Vigilant!
Ramon Frutos, Chief Meteorologist of Belize, comments that model tracks for Invest 93-L (presently in the eastern Caribbean near 14N 67W) project the disturbance to move on a general westerly direction through the central and western Caribbean. Environmental conditions in the eastern and central Caribbean are not expected to be conducive for rapid development, but will become more favorable as the disturbance moves west of 80W on Thursday and Friday.
Once Invest 93-L reaches the western Caribbean later Thursday into Friday, the chances of development will increase as it encounters a more favorable environment; in fact, the latest European model guidance forecasts 93L to become a tropical cyclone by Thursday evening over the western Caribbean. The GFS model does not favor strengthening to a TC in the western Caribbean. Please keep vigilant of this storm through daily updates from the Belize Met Service.
Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday.
Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border.
It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook.
Active Tropical Wave entering western Caribbean has potential for development
Although a surface circulation has not been defined as yet the well defined tropical wave entering the NW Caribbean has the potential to develop into a depression later today. Low level circulation near 8,000 to 10,000 ft has been evident since yesterday. Estimate of a center of this low level circulation is at Latitude 15 N, Longitude 79 W or about 630 miles east of the country. Motion of this circulation is generally easterly at 15 mile per hour.
Track projections are almost unanimously clustered through Belize. With no steering current other than the basic easterly flow across the western Caribbean the system would track in a general westerly direction with a slight northward component.
Although present probability for formation of a cyclone is at 80% the system is entering an area somewhat conducive for further development and as such expect these probability to rise today. Wind speed estimates at landfall likely to be in the range of a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm Saturday morning if system continues at present motion.
Presently need to start to make preparations as if a depression exists.
The exact location or area of concentration of rainfall at this time is still uncertain is indeterminate at this time since development of the system is rather uncertain.
Edited by Marty (08/18/1110:52 PM) Edit Reason: 93L renamed TD8
at 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 15.4 north...longitude 82.1 west. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/h...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days. On this track...the center of the depression should move
near or over the north coast of Honduras by Friday morning...and
approach southern Belize on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. The depression could strengthen into a tropical storm on
Friday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
at 800 am EDT...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was estimated near latitude 15.6 north...longitude 83.7 west. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/h...and
this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday.
On this track...the center of the depression is expected to move
near or over the northern coast of Honduras today and Saturday and
move inland over Belize and Guatemala by Saturday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast...but only a
small increase would bring the depression to tropical storm status
over the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft is currently en Route to investigate the depression.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Dark clouds loom over the battlefield on which the ownership of Telemedia will be decided. But the legal issue is not the only reason why the sky is expected to be dark throughout the weekend. A weather system that developed in the Eastern Caribbean has been slowly moving west. The Belize MET Service has been tracking that tropical wave, which is expected to make landfall on Saturday. Will it have any effect other than dampen your weekend plans? News Five spoke to the Chief Met Officer as he completed his three p.m. report.
Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorological Officer
“There is an active tropical formation some five hundred and fifty miles east of Belize and presently it’s showing some circulation; however, the circulation has not reached down to the surface. The circulation is about ten or eight thousand feet above the surface. There is some circulation—a good signature to the system, however like I said the circulation has not reached the surface as yet and therefore it has not been categorized as a tropical depression. The system is heading towards the west at about ten, fifteen miles per hour. The present forecast tracks carry it just north of Honduras into southern Belize come midday Saturday. On that track, the system would not strengthen significantly because of interaction with the Honduran land mass. As a result, how I see it, it looks like worst case scenario is a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression on Saturday.”
Jose Sanchez
“Should we be looking forward to a lot of rains only in the south or the size of it will carry across the other portions of the country?”
Dennis Gonguez
“Well it is a small compact system at this time—it’s not even—the rainfall would not even extend over the entire country. We’re not certain of the track so we can’t tell exactly which part of the country the rainfall will be concentrated. But presently the tracks indicated that it is the southern parts of the country.”
Jose Sanchez
Dennis Gonguez
Though we are concern, there is no reason to panic?”
Dennis Gonguez
“Yes, we just need to be aware that something is out there and be prepared for when the word comes that there is a depression heading our way or a tropical storm heading our way and be prepared to take preventative actions so that to prevent bodily harm.”
Jose Sanchez
“What’s your advice for those mariners who intend to be out this weekend?”
Dennis Gonguez
“Well they have to pay attention to the bulletins that’s issued by the national meteorological service and eventually issued by NEMO probably tomorrow or come Saturday morning. So they need to pay attention to those bulletins and be aware that something is out there.”
Jose Sanchez
“So for those people intending to go to the cayes by boat over the weekend, Saturday would be a bad day?”
Dennis Gonguez
“That wouldn’t be a good idea. With a system heading our way, even if it doesn’t develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, with an active tropical wave of this magnitude heading our way; the seas would be rough. And you have to consider the rainfall also.”
Jose Sanchez
“When it comes to tracking, how good is our doppler?”
Dennis Gonguez
“Well the radar really assists us a great deal in tracking these systems. It has a maximum range of two hundred and fifty miles so we can see the systems whenever it comes within range. That’s what we use to pinpoint the centre of these systems as they head our way.”
Jose Sanchez
“In terms of communication with the national hurricane center, how does that really work for your office?”
Dennis Gonguez
“Well we have a direct line. We have a number that is not shared with the general public where we can speak to the forecaster on duty and we have a rap session and discuss the events unfolding.”
Jose Sanchez
“Will it be safe to say that we provide information to the hurricane center that they use?”
Dennis Gonguez
“We do because they uses, in the case of hurricane Richard, they used our radar data to help in the preparation of the bulletins that were issued back to us. We have been watching this system from it entered the eastern Caribbean and it looked even better as it entered the eastern Caribbean—better than it looked at this present time. We thought maybe it would have been a depression a long time ago however, conditions this side are a little more conducive to development and like I said the forecast track might just hinder it from developing into a full fledged hurricane.”
No advisories will be issued until the system becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm. However, the Met Office advises the public to keep informed as the situation may change.
Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.
Here is an update... The center was relocated farther North and the trajectory takes the TD into central Bze coast south of Belize city by 6pm Saturday...Remember this scenario could change in the next 6 to 12 hours...Winds at land fall 60 mph... Be prepared!!!
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER OF HARVEY REACHES BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MIILES... 65 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
Tropical Storm Harvey has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and threatening to bring high winds and heavy rains to parts of Central America's coast. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Bay Islands of Honduras and the coast of Belize. Watches are in effect for coastal Honduras, Guatemala and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Harvey's maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 kph). The storm was centered about 155 miles (250 kilometers) east of Isla Roatan, Honduras. It was moving west at 10 mph (16 kph).
Tropical Depression Eight became Tropical Storm Harvey at mid-day today. The centre of the system is latitude 16.3 N, longitude 84.2 W. This position is about 270 miles east southeast of Dangriga. The TS is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 miles per hour and is expected make land fall by late Saturday evening that is the 20th of August 2011, tomorrow. The present forecast track takes the system just to the north of Dangriga. Wind speed is presently 40mph and additional strengthening is forecast. 3-5 inches of rainfall is expected.
The Government of Belize has declared a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of Belize. We are in the Red Two Phase of the National Emergency Warning System.
People living in coastal communities particularly; Belize City, Dangriga including Wagirili, Mullins River, Gales Point, Monkey River, Silk Grass, Independence, along the Placencia Peninsula, Seine Bight, Punta Negra, Hopkins and surrounding villages that normally floods and get cut off due to flooding are advised to move to higher grounds. Including communities in the Toledo District such as Midway, Corazon, Boom Creek, Bladden, Swasey and Golden Stream. Small communities along the Coastal Road and the Old Northern Highway are also advised to move to higher ground.
The general public is hereby informed that winds are expected to reach up to 50 miles per hour. People who have livestock should move them to higher ground. Subsistence farmers who have crops in the field attend to your crops. Banana growers in the south take heed of the forecasted wind speed of 50 mph.
People living in areas known to flood are encouraged to start making the necessary preparations to move to a safe area. Fisher folks, Water Taxi Operators, Sea goers are urged not to go to Sea. You strongly advised to stay alert and listen for the marine advisories. People are not advised to travel to the Cayes at this time. All vessels are advised to seek safe harbour.
Organizers of events for this weekend are advised to consider postponing them.
NEMO and the Government of Belize are presently responding to a Tropical Storm. All NEMO staff is on full alert and key national and district committees are activated in the event the situation worsens and a rapid national response is required. Public Officers are advised to be on standby to report for duty as Shelter Wardens as the need arises. Ministries are urged to ensure all government vehicles are fueled and that those GOB vehicles assigned to assist NEMO operations are handed over to the Ministry of Works Officer in Charge in their respective location in keeping with our Standard Operating Procedures.
The Public is advised to listen to their local radio and television stations for further updates from the National Meteorological Service and NEMO.
NEMO is on high alert as we continue to monitor Tropical Storm Harvey.
...HARVEY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS...
Summary of 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...information
LOCATION...16.5N 84.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS HARVEY
APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
Hazards affecting land
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
next intermediate advisory...800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory...1100 PM EDT.
...AIRCRAFT FINDS HARVEY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS HARVEY APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL.
track shows range for landfall from Xcalak to south of Punta Gorda. centered halfway between Dangriga and Belize City. Near Northern Lagoon and Southern Lagoon.
CLICK HERE for larger view. It's definently easier to read.
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HEADING FOR THE
BAY ISLANDS...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
HARVEY IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST OF BELIZE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA WAS
994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST
OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
As at 5:00 p.m. Tropical Storm Harvey is at latitude 16.5 North and Longitude 84.7 West. This position is about 240 miles east southeast of Dangriga. The TS is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 miles per hour. The present forecast track takes the system just to the north of Dangriga and south of Belize City. Wind speed is presently 45mph and additional strengthening is forecasted. 3-5 inches of rainfall is expected.
Marine interests People are not advised to travel to the Cayes. All vessels are advised to seek safe harbour. Fisher folks, Water Taxi Operators, Sea goers are urged not to go to Sea. You strongly advised to stay alert and listen for the marine advisories.
People in areas prone to flooding People living in areas known to flood are encouraged to make final preparations to move to safe area.
Shelters NEMO is making its final preparations, if the need arise, to open Shelters in villages from along the Old Northern Highway Belize City and Gales Point in the Belize District; Belmopan surrounding communities in the Cayo District; Dangriga; Hopkins; the Placencia Peninsula and Independence and communities along the Hummingbird highway in the Stann Creek District down to Monkey River in the Toledo District. The aforementioned communities including San Ignacio and surrounding villages are currently in the projected path of TS Harvey including all Cayes going south from English Caye down to South Water Caye.
Public Officers are asked to make their final preparations to deploy to the shelters on the instructions of NEMO. GOB vehicles assigned to assist NEMO operations are to be handed over to the Ministry of Works Officer in Charge in their respective location.
Again organizers of events for this weekend are advised to consider postponing them.
The Public is advised to remain vigilant and to listen to their local radio and television stations for updates from the National Meteorological Service and NEMO.
NEMO continues to make final preparations as Tropical Storm Harvey approaches.
brace for the approach of what is now Tropical Storm Harvey.
Patrick Jones reporting... “By this time tomorrow, Tropical Storm Harvey will be making landfall somewhere along the coast between Belize City and Dangriga town. Satellite pictures from this afternoon show the minimal tropical storm hugging the Honduran coastline heading in a westerly direction. Chief Meteorologist Dennis Gonguez says this general motion will continue for the rest of the life of the storm.
Dennis Gonguez – Chief Meteorologist “We’re we’re looking at landfall somewhere near just to the north of Dangriga Town.”
Patrick Jones - Reporter Is it bringing with it a lot of rain?
Dennis Gonguez – Chief Meteorologist “We are looking at three to five inches of rainfall possibly seven inches enhanced by the mountainous areas in the south so it increases the potential for some flooding in those areas.”
That is why the National Emergency Management Organization, NEMO is advising people in flood-prone areas of the country to head higher grounds before the storm hits.
Noreen Fairweather – National Emergency Coordinator “Move and move early, move to higher grounds. All the communities particularly those like those in the Stann Creek Area; you have Gales Point that’s very near to where the landfall is forecast, Mullins River, Dangriga Town itself; you have behind the town all those areas Wagierele, New Site, people who live in those areas, they know there areas flood they need to move to higher ground.”
Voluntary evacuations started on Friday afternoon and will continue at first light on Saturday. Fairweather says that while they cannot force anyone to leave their homes, it is always better to be safe than sorry.
Noreen Fairweather – National Emergency Coordinator “From tomorrow morning we will have the people in Punta Negra we are getting them into shelters. In Gales Point it is right in the community so they can just move into their shelter as early as possible it is not like they have to travel very far, they just basically walk down the road and get into a safe place if they know their homes are challenged in any way, there may be some homes that some people might not be comfortable in. We don’t want to forget that we have communities in the south that are prone to flooding, these people live there they know they flood these people live there they know they flood."
Gonguez says that the effects of Tropical Storm Harvey will begin to be felt in Belizean territory early tomorrow.
Dennis Gonguez – Chief Meteorologist The winds start affecting our extreme outer waters around 8:00 a,m. tomorrow morning and as the day progresses we expect conditions to deteriorate and the system makes landfall about 6:00 p.m.
NEMO officials are advising event organizers to consider putting their planned weekend activities on hold until the storm passes. Likewise, the best advice right now is to cancel any planned trips that involve our coastal waters. By Sunday morning, Tropical Storm Harvey should have crossed Belize into Guatemala.
BEL Advises of Power System Performance Related to the Approaching Tropical Storm Harvey
Belize Electricity Limited (BEL) advises that, in the event there is loss of power supply due to damages caused by the approaching Tropical Storm Harvey, the Company will dispatch work crews to the field as soon as it is safe to do so.
If weather conditions are such that it would make it unsafe for work crews, works will be delayed until conditions improve. If there are damages to the power system, customers are advised to be prepared for related power outages.
Customers are also asked to take note of the following safety tips:
- Remember to obtain batteries for your radio so that you can listen to storm advisories.
- If you are leaving your premises and suspect that there will be flooding, turn off the main switch before you leave.
- Do not touch appliances, cords, electrical tools or plugs with wet hands or while standing on a wet surface. Do not put electrical tools, appliances or cords in water.
- If the power goes off, do not attempt to reinstate the power supply. Turn off all power at your switch box and unplug all electrical appliances.
- Turn off the main breaker if the water level rises above or near the outlets and ensure that the entire premise is disconnected from any electrical source. Do not walk into any area or water that is perceived to be connected to any electrical source.
- Do not go to any of the power stations or sub-stations.
- If you encounter an electrical-injured victim, do not touch the person until they have been freed from the source of electricity. You can use a non-conductor, such as dry rope or wood to push or pull the victim away from the power source.
Customers are asked to report damages to the power system by calling BEL at 0-800-BEL-CARE or 0-800-235-2273. Remember, however, that BEL work crews will only be dispatched to the field when it is safe to do so.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011
...CENTER OF HARVEY NOW NORTHWEST OF ROATAN...HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE STORM...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND HARVEY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
HARVEY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
6:36 Am north of San Pedro Town ..... gray skies, breeze is kicking up, light chop, coastal express made its early morning run as usual and guys are strolling up the beach. looks like it rained last night can see a wall of rain on the horizon
Looks like a pretty direct hit to central area of Bze, but lucking out on the intensity side.
//////////////////////
The Navy chart below shows it going a little more due E than yesterday evening. Note the Chart also, projected max gust to 75 knots by 18z time, so they indicate intensifying and becoming a hurricane. However, still moving at 10 knots so I think he will run out of time to get too big before hitting shore. He is definitely a much more organized storm, and carrying more water now than yesterday. Hunker down and be careful.
//////////////////
Haven't had my first cup yet. LOVE FM and the Met chief are saying the eye will cross at Dangriga, and 3"-6" rain - still can strenghten some.
Raining here at Succotz.
//////////////////////
Not looking so bad. I check both storm pulse, underground and noaa. Looks like it'll hit more south, but the strongest winds are on the northern quadrant, and really, the worse place in the country for a storm to hit is Belize city, because its so low. Anyway, winds are not bad and its moving 12mph, which is good. Assuming all those in low lying areas near creeks and rivers learned a lesson after Arthur and will move to higher ground. I love listening to Love FM during the storm, something like garrison keilor. Well, heres to hoping life, limb and property are secured and we suffer little damages.
//////////////
ACCUWEATHER:
All eyes are focused on Tropical Storm Harvey in the Caribbean as it closes in on Belize today.
Harvey strengthened slightly overnight as it continued to track north of the Honduras coastline.
Environmental conditions favor additional strengthening as it tracks westward today.
However, the storm's proximity to the Honduras coastline will limit the intensification of the storm, but the water north of Honduras is very warm and it is not out of the question that the storm could strengthen to a hurricane before making landfall.
The main threat from this storm will be heavy flooding rains and strong winds that will impact northern Honduras, Belize, southeast Mexico, and northern Guatemala over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Harvey will unleash 4 to 8 inches of rain across northern Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala and the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico through this weekend.
The rain will also bring widespread concerns for flash flooding and mudslides across the mountainous terrains.
The winds from Harvey could down trees and power lines, as well as minor structural damage.
As Harvey pushes onshore and crosses the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico, the storm will weaken rapidly.
However, the storm will still produce large amounts of rain heading into the second half of the weekend.
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
Tropical Storm Harvey is gaining strength and heading for Belize tonight. At 6:00 pm, the storm was located 255 miles east southeast of Belize City and heading west with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour.
The Government of Belize has declared a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of Belize. The country is in the Red Two Phase of the National Emergency Warning System and NEMO has been activated and on high alert.
The center of the storm will skirt past the Bay Islands of Honduras tonight and make landfall on Belize sometime tomorrow as a Tropical Storm.
We asked Chief Met Officer Dennis Gonguez - what will be the windspeed when it touches down in Belize:…
Dennis Gonguez, Chief Met Officer "As it heads closer to us and approaching landfall tomorrow afternoon we expect the winds to further increase to near 60 miles per hour. So we are looking at a moderately strong tropical storm affecting us tomorrow."
Jules Vasquez "Where is it expected to make landfall?"
Dennis Gonguez, Chief Met Officer "The present track projections put in pretty much in the vicinity of where Richard made landfall last October. So it seems it's headed in that general direction. Just near where landfall will be we expect winds of 60 miles per hour and as it heads further north the winds should drop off to about 40 miles per hour in Belize City and then further north and south the winds will drop off to about 30-35 miles per hour in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts. Landfall will be shortly after mid-day to mid-afternoon tomorrow. It seems we will be out of fear by the evening. By Sunday we should start to see some clearing up in weather conditions in the morning."
Jules Vasquez "Now we know that Hurricane Richard was only a category 1 storm. What should we expect from this one in terms of it being a tropical storm at landfall?"
Dennis Gonguez, Chief Met Officer "Well Hurricane Richard was substantially stronger than what Tropical Storm Harvey is forecast to be and so we should not expect as much destruction as what happen last year with Hurricane Richard."
Jules Vasquez "What is the threat to property and physical infrastructure? What should people be on the lookout for and what should people do if they feel they live in a fairly vulnerable structure?"
Dennis Gonguez, Chief Met Officer "If you are of the opinion that your structure cannot withstand the wind speeds that I am speaking about then you have to look for a safe shelter."
Of course, the storm force winds are one thing, flooding is quite another, particularly in the south.
A NEMO advisory issued this afternoon says that those living on Coastal communities, particularly Belize City, Dangriga, Mullins River, Gales Point, Monkey River, Silk Grass, Independence, the Placencia Peninsula, Seine Byte, Punta Negra, Hopkins and surrounding villages that normally flood and get cut off due to flooding are advised to move to higher grounds. Including communities in the Toledo District such as Midway, Corazon, Boom Creek, Bladden, Swasey and Golden Stream. Small communities along the Coastal Road and the Old Northern Highway are also advised to move to higher ground.
As for shelters, a 6:00 pm advisory notes that NEMO is making final preparations if the need arises to open shelters as follows: in the Belize district, in villages from along the old northern highway, in Belize city and Gales point.
In the Cayo district: shelters will be open if the need arises in Belmopan and surrounding communities; in the Stann Creek district: Hopkins, Dangriga, the Placencia Peninsula, Independence and communities along the Hummingbird highway down to Monkey River in the Toledo district. Again, those shgelters will be open, quote, "if the need arises."
The advisory warns that those communities as well as San Ignacio and the surrounding villages are currently in the projected path of Tropical Storm Harvey including all cayes going south from English Caye to South Water Caye.
According to the advisory, "All NEMO staff is on full alert and key national and district committees are activated in the event…a rapid national response is required. Public Officers are advised to be on standby to report for duty as Shelter Wardens as the need arises.
The weather system that rose from the Eastern Caribbean now has a name and it’s Tropical Storm Harvey. Harvey’s strength is about forty-five miles per hour and is expected to strengthen tonight, before landfall on Saturday. According to Dennis Gonguez, the Chief Met Officer, the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) has met this morning and a Tropical Storm warning has been issued for the coast of Belize.
Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorological Officer
“We met this morning at ten o’clock and we decided that we’d issue a tropical storm warning for the entire coast of Belize and it translates into upgrading our warnings for the national emergency warning system to a red two phase for our national warning system. Last night the active tropical wave that was approaching the western Caribbean developed into a tropical depression number eight—that occurred around nine p.m. last night and since then, things have evolved, the system has become better organized and midday today it upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey. Since then it has further intensified and now the wind speeds have increased to forty-five miles per hour. The forecast is for further strengthening. For landfall; landfall is expected around mid-afternoon tomorrow and it looks like we might have a sixty miles per hour tropical storm on our hands.”
Jose Sanchez
Dennis Gonguez
“Harvey; what’s the main area of concern?”
Dennis Gonguez
“Well the present track forecast puts it in the pretty much in the path of which Richard did last year. We are looking at somewhere midway between Belize City and Dangriga town. Historically, track forecast have been doing better than our intensity forecast—we have difficulty forecasting intensities, strengthening and weakening of sytems, but we have fairly good confidence in the track forecast.”
Jose Sanchez
“In terms of intensity and circumference, how would you classify Harvey?”
Dennis Gonguez
“It’s a small system and we start to see effects of it shortly after midnight towards dawn. We should start to see effects on the extreme outer waters, offshore. As I said landfall will be around three p.m. somewhere around there tomorrow afternoon.”
Jose Sanchez
“How long would you estimate we will be feeling the impact of it?”
Dennis Gonguez
“Well it’s moving at about twelve miles per hour, so I’m looking at by midday Sunday it will be well out of our area. We’re looking at about three to five inches of rainfall associated with this system so some places that could translate into localized flooding over some areas. So even some areas where it is mountainous in the southern part of the country we could see localized amounts of up to seven inches of rain. This system has the potential of further strengthening. It is moving over warm waters—conditions are favorable for some strengthening—so we again we looking at possibly a sixty to sixty-five miles per hour tropical storm and we need to be aware that it can be a menace to us.”
At six o’clock this evening Tropical Storm Harvey, the first weather system expected to make landfall in Belize since the start of the 2011 Hurricane Season, was positioned two hundred and fifty-five miles east, southeast of Dangriga. The tropical storm is moving at a speed of ten miles per hour in a west, northwesterly direction with wind speeds of up to fifty miles per hour. It is expected that Tropical Storm Harvey will bring along with it some three to five inches of rainfall. Seafarers are advised not to travel to the cayes and vessels should seek safe harbor. Meanwhile people living in flood prone areas are encouraged to make final preparations to seek higher ground. While shelters have not been officially declared open NEMO is currently making final preparations, if necessary, to do so in villages along the Old Northern Highway, Belize City and Gales Point as well as in the Cayo and Stann Creek districts. Stay tuned for more on the tropical weather update.
might pick up close to hurricane cat 1 winds before landfall.....
WS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011
...HARVEY MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
LOCATION...16.8N 87.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND HARVEY
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
I'd put it at about 80 miles due East of Mango Creek right now and traveling a tad North of due West at 10-12. The conditions seems right for it to intensify, but it is already making contact with land which will tend to have a limiting effect.
Call just came in to LOVE FM - tornado touched down in Crooked Tree a few minutes ago. Caller said trees are down all over the place, no further details on damage are yet available.
Tropical Storm Harvey is closing in towards a landfall this afternoon in Belize, and is dumping very heavy rains on northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize as it steadily moves west near 12 mph. A personal weather station on Roatan Island on the north coast of Honduras has received 6.68" of rain as of 10am EDT this morning from Harvey, and had a peak wind gust of 42 mph. The Roatan airport has received 3.55", and had a peak wind gust of 40 mph. The first significant spiral band from Harvey moved over Belize City at 7am local time, dropping nearly an inch of rain on the city. Belize National Meteorological Service radar shows that Harvey has appeared to close off an eyewall as of 11:30am EDT, which may allow the storm to intensify another 10 - 15 mph before landfall. The 11am NHC wind probability forecast gave Harvey a 3% chance of making it to hurricane strength, but the discussion noted that it wouldn't be that hard for Harvey to gain another 10 - 15 mph before landfall. I estimate there is a 30% chance that the winds along a 10-mile stretch of Belize coast where the eyewall makes landfall will reach hurricane force.
Figure 1. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Harvey taken at 12:25pm EDT on Friday, August 19, 2011. An hour after this picture was taken, Harvey became a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
might pick up close to hurricane cat 1 winds before landfall.....
Marty, its like anything else I've ever experienced with NOAA it almost seems as if the right hand doesnt know what the left is doing! You get that forecast you posted, you pull up 4 different charts and they all seem to be sayging diffrent things...I mean for instance look at the 1000 Hrs CST winds forecast for Hurricane force wind predictions and you get this
Tropical Storm Harvey is moving west toward Belize with little change in strength, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near latitude 16.8 north and longitude 87.6 west, about 65 miles southeast of Belize City and about 70 miles east-northeast of Monkey River Town, Belize. It has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is moving west at 12 mph.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Honduras from Punta Sal westward, and for the coasts of Guatemala and Belize. Hurricane conditions are possible along a portion of the coast of Belize later today.
The center of Tropical Storm Harvey is expected to move inland over Belize this afternoon, then move into northern Guatemala tonight. Some strengthening is possible today, and Harvey could become a hurricane before landfall in Belize. Steady weakening is forecast after landfall.
NEMO PRESS RELEASE #4
11am 8/20/2011
As at 9:00 a.m. Tropical Storm Harvey is at latitude 16.8 North and Llongitude 87.6 West Longitude or about 65 miles South East of Belize City with winds of 60 miles per hour gusting at 70 miles per hour. TS force winds extend 40 miles out from the centre. Harvey is moving West at 12 miles per hour. The Eye is expected to arrive on land just north of Dangriga in about 8 hours starting after 2 p.m. Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Belize.
At this time the likely threats are Storm Surge up to 4 feet above normal tide levels with up to 6 inches of rainfall possible that may lead to flash floods. People living along Rivers must seek higher ground. Sea will become very rough today. NEMO advises no movement at sea. All boats must remain in harbor at Caye Caulker and San Pedro. Water Taxi operators are not encouraged to do runs from San Pedro to Placencia.
Shelters have been open in the following places: Belize City: Palotti, North Side, Maud Williams High School and Excelsior on North Side. Dangirga – Gullisi, Benguche, and Delil Academy Belmopan- Las Flores Community Centre, Armenia R.C School and St Margaret’s R.C School
Everyone must be indoors in a safe structure by midday. People from Monkey River Town have been evacuated to Bella Vista. People from Mullins River have been evacuated to Hope Creek Methodist.
Bus scheduled has been suspended for the south and west.
The National NEMO executive met this morning and all essential services, agencies and ministries are fully engaged and are responding in their respective role. NEMO is now finalizing its plan for work after the storm. VHF radio antennae must be taken down before landfall for use after impact.
The public is advised to remain vigilant.Continue listening to the local radio and television stations for further advisories from the NEMO and the National Met Service.
The NEMO emergency number is 936
NEMO continues to respond the approaching Tropical Storm Harvey.
...CENTER OF HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN...
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011
LOCATION...17.0N 88.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR
DANGRIGA TOWN...AND AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
88.3 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...
21 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN
GUATEMALA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY IS
MOVING INLAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MADE LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
NEMO Public Advisory #5 - Tropical Storm Harvey - ALL CLEAR
By NEMO Infornation Unit
Aug 20, 2011, 05:30 pm
NEMO PRESS RELEASE #5
“All Clear has been declared”
At 5:00 p.m. NEMO declared the “All Clear” for Belize. The public is advised to be on the alert for flash flooding particularly people living near to rivers and low lying areas must remain vigilant and alert. Sittee River is below low lying bridge and rising.
Everybody who were in shelters returned to their home.
The public is advised to continue listening to the local radio and television stations for further advisories from the NEMO and the National Met Service for potential flooding.
The NEMO emergency number is 936.
We are thankful for all the support provided to NEMO by the general public, the Public Officers and the private sector.
ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM BEING ASSESSED
Tropical Storm Harvey did not cause any damage when it made landfall near Dangriga town on Saturday. National Emergency Coordinator Noreen Fairweather, says preliminary NEMO damage assessments have been carried out and they show that the impact of the storm in the area was next to nil.
Noreen Fairweather – National Coordinator, NEMO “So far reports that we have gotten from our folks on the ground there has certainly been no major damages. People got wet, people who had leaks in their roofs, they discovered it if they didn’t know there were there before. We did get some little puddling of water in various areas, primarily because of the heavy rainfall as the rains went through, there was a little bit of flooding, isolated in pockets. In terms of major wind damage, we haven’t had any report of that so far.”
Chief Meteorologist Dennis Gonguez told Love News on Saturday evening that Tropical Storm Harvey did not bring any surprises.
Dennis Gonguez – Chief Meteorologist “We were expecting something like that, winds of about 50to 60 miles per hour. It was just before making landfall that it started to develop a close banded feature around the center of circulation, if it had a little bit more room we would have seen a hurricane at landfall.”
Tropical Storm Harvey was the eighth system of the 2011 Hurricane Season to develop.
And so while Tropical Storm Harvey will become known for the side effect tornado it spawned - the main body of storm did make landfall in southern Belize - but it was of little note.
When we got to Dangriga around 1:00 pm, people were asking us if the storm had already passed - that's how unremarkable it was!
In Hopkins - the shelters had already been closed and residents told us that they only experienced slight rain.
Chief MET Officer Dennis Gonguez described the tack that the storm took - while noting that it could have been worse:…
Dennis Gonguez, Chief MET Officer "It made landfall just about around midday or shortly after midday just to the North of Dangriga Town. It had winds about 50-55 miles per hour just 5-10 miles to the north of the center. One interesting feature just before landfall is that around the center it start to develop thunderstorms just about to circle the center and that would indicate that it was intensify. If it had a little more room we would have been in a little more trouble."
On the way back from Dangriga we did observe turbid waters running with strong currents under bridges in the valley community - but there was no flooding.
And while Dangriga and the surrounding communities were spared strong winds, flooding and storm surge - the disorganized storm did do damage in Belmopan, of all places.
On Saturday evening, there was a sustained, torrential downpour in that area which caused some minor flooding, light winds and most consequentially devastating damage to corn fields in the banana bank and Kitty Bank area.
According to PLUS TV the damages to corn fields in those area amount to 2.7 million dollars! And the destruction of one thousand acres of corn and damage to another 1,750 acres is also expected to result in a local shortage of corn which may drive prices of corn products up.
IMHO, a beautiful day in Belize (which today is) warrants as much press !
Try this: Wonderful day causes flowers to bloom, tourists to tan, birds to sing. Breeze brings butterflies, dragonflies and rustles palm fronds. A local businessman spoke with this reporter, and here is what he had to say: "Well I want to say that this is one of the best days this week! It's been a beautiful summer. We're making more money than last year and we've got the money for school uniforms put away already."
Assessment on the damage left behind by tropical storm Harvey on Saturday is underway and for one businessman, he has summed up his losses to close to a million dollars. John Carr, pioneer of Banana Bank Lodge says the unexpected force winds that lashed his corn fields over the weekend, flattened major plots of his mature crops. News Five’s Andrea Polanco and John Carr trekked into the fields at Banana Bank today.
Andrea Polanco, Reporting
Acres of corn fields lay flat on the ground, battered by the winds of Tropical Storm Harvey on Saturday evening. When the storm made its passage through Banana Bank it destroyed hundreds of acres of corn, owned by businessman, John Carr.
John Carr, Businessman & Lost Crop to TS Harvey
John Carr
“We’ve been farming some fifteen hundred acres of corn for some time and we try to average around fifty bags an acre—that’s a good yield for us—the weather’s been good. We expected a little better this year because the weather has been good for us. That harvest was gonna happen between mostly the fifth of October to the twenty-fifth of October. Takes a hundred and twenty days or four months from planting to harvest. I would think that we lost maybe about five hundred acres—that’s about ninety percent loss maybe and I think another five hundred acres that had a forty percent loss and maybe we had about thirty percent that didn’t have much damage. But we lost more than half of our acreage—real severe damage.”
The storm wiped out corn fields only sixty to seventy days old, which needed an additional two months before harvesting. That loss has set Carr back almost a million dollars, but Carr says he hopes he can break even with the remaining corn.
John Carr
“If we had say six hundred acres that we hardly harvest, we were projected that corn to make like fifteen hundred dollars gross an acre. So six times fifteen, that’s nine hundred thousand dollars that we don’t expect to harvest this year. And maybe sixty percent of that would have been expenses so we would have had a decent profit this year because we were anticipating for the good corn prices. I think that maybe this will be a year that we sometimes like the rat in the trap—forget about the cheese; just let me out of the trap. That means if we break even the way we are right now, we’d be pretty happy. We’re not looking to make profit this year; we just want to minimize our losses.”
Salvaging the damaged crops is very unlikely, but this businessman remains hopeful.
John Carr
“Well we’re looking at everyday if our conversation is every hour and we’re hoping that this piece of corn that I have right here in my hand is called a gooseneck. And you see how it kinda goes like a gooseneck and this corn was laying on the ground flat like this and then it stood up like this and this is the ear. I don’t have a lot of hope that it is going to bring much as far as a total field. This particular one might work, but the plants per acre of this type are going to be fifty or twenty percent of what we would have anticipated in the beginning, so I don’t think it’s gonna work much.We’ll just have to wait for the dry weather. We have to wait and then we will just disc the residue in; there isn’t much to salvage, however we’re going to wait until a normal time passes and we’ll just see that some miracle might happen—that harvest will be bigger than we anticipated. By just looking at the lost situation right now, who knows maybe something good will happen.”
Carr, who has lived at Banana Bank since the nineteen eighties, says this is the first time that a storm has done this much damage:
John Carr
“Really it is in about twenty five years of our farming here, this is the first time that we have suffered any damage here. It is unusual to have a storm like this in August.”
Reporting for News Five, I am Andrea Polanco.
Carr said that the Ministry of Agriculture visited his plots of corn on Monday; but any help will only be forthcoming after various layers of evaluations are completed.
I hope there is some salvageable value here; perhaps silage for animals, perhaps not. The life of a farmer is so linked to the vagaries of the weather. I could never do it, I'd be living on Rolaids.
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There is a tropical wave over the west central Caribbean this evening - and it is one that bears watching because it is south of Jamaica, or southeast of Belize in open waters.
"At this moment, there is a fairly active tropical wave located some 930 miles east of Belize. And although we're seeing some circulation at about 7,000 - 10,000 feet, the circulation has not translated down to the surface as yet. However, as the system heads more westward toward our area, conditions become more conducive for development. So we should see that 30% probability for development as time goes by. Within the next 24 to 36 hours, quite possibly, we could be seeing a tropical depression to the south of Jamaica."
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
Tropical Storm Harvey is gaining strength and heading for Belize tonight. At 6:00 pm, the storm was located 255 miles east southeast of Belize City and heading west with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour.
"As it heads closer to us and approaching landfall tomorrow afternoon we expect the winds to further increase to near 60 miles per hour. So we are looking at a moderately strong tropical storm affecting us tomorrow."
And so while Tropical Storm Harvey will become known for the side effect tornado it spawned - the main body of storm did make landfall in southern Belize - but it was of little note.
"It made landfall just about around midday or shortly after midday just to the North of Dangriga Town. It had winds about 50-55 miles per hour just 5-10 miles to the north of the center. One interesting feature just before landfall is that around the center it start to develop thunderstorms just about to circle the center and that would indicate that it was intensify. If it had a little more room we would have been in a little more trouble."
And while Dangriga and the surrounding communities were spared strong winds, flooding and storm surge - the disorganized storm did do damage in Belmopan, of all places.
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