1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HEADING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND HARVEY IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

Thanks for the updates Marty!!

you bet, here's from NEMO.....


NEMO PRESS RELEASE #3

As at 5:00 p.m. Tropical Storm Harvey is at latitude 16.5 North and Longitude 84.7 West. This position is about 240 miles east southeast of Dangriga. The TS is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 miles per hour. The present forecast track takes the system just to the north of Dangriga and south of Belize City. Wind speed is presently 45mph and additional strengthening is forecasted. 3-5 inches of rainfall is expected.

Marine interests
People are not advised to travel to the Cayes. All vessels are advised to seek safe harbour. Fisher folks, Water Taxi Operators, Sea goers are urged not to go to Sea. You strongly advised to stay alert and listen for the marine advisories.

People in areas prone to flooding
People living in areas known to flood are encouraged to make final preparations to move to safe area.

Shelters
NEMO is making its final preparations, if the need arise, to open Shelters in villages from along the Old Northern Highway Belize City and Gales Point in the Belize District; Belmopan surrounding communities in the Cayo District; Dangriga; Hopkins; the Placencia Peninsula and Independence and communities along the Hummingbird highway in the Stann Creek District down to Monkey River in the Toledo District. The aforementioned communities including San Ignacio and surrounding villages are currently in the projected path of TS Harvey including all Cayes going south from English Caye down to South Water Caye.

Public Officers are asked to make their final preparations to deploy to the shelters on the instructions of NEMO. GOB vehicles assigned to assist NEMO operations are to be handed over to the Ministry of Works Officer in Charge in their respective location.

Again organizers of events for this weekend are advised to consider postponing them.

The Public is advised to remain vigilant and to listen to their local radio and television stations for updates from the National Meteorological Service and NEMO.

NEMO continues to make final preparations as Tropical Storm Harvey approaches.

BELIZE BRACES FOR TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

brace for the approach of what is now Tropical Storm Harvey.

Patrick Jones reporting...
“By this time tomorrow, Tropical Storm Harvey will be making landfall
somewhere along the coast between Belize City and Dangriga town. Satellite
pictures from this afternoon show the minimal tropical storm hugging the
Honduran coastline heading in a westerly direction. Chief Meteorologist
Dennis Gonguez says this general motion will continue for the rest of the
life of the storm.

Dennis Gonguez – Chief Meteorologist
“We’re we’re looking at landfall somewhere near just to the north of
Dangriga Town.”

Patrick Jones - Reporter
Is it bringing with it a lot of rain?

Dennis Gonguez – Chief Meteorologist
“We are looking at three to five inches of rainfall possibly seven inches
enhanced by the mountainous areas in the south so it increases the
potential for some flooding in those areas.”

That is why the National Emergency Management Organization, NEMO is
advising people in flood-prone areas of the country to head higher grounds
before the storm hits.

Noreen Fairweather – National Emergency Coordinator
“Move and move early, move to higher grounds. All the communities
particularly those like those in the Stann Creek Area; you have Gales Point
that’s very near to where the landfall is forecast, Mullins River, Dangriga
Town itself; you have behind the town all those areas Wagierele, New Site,
people who live in those areas, they know there areas flood they need to
move to higher ground.”

Voluntary evacuations started on Friday afternoon and will continue at
first light on Saturday. Fairweather says that while they cannot force
anyone to leave their homes, it is always better to be safe than sorry.

Noreen Fairweather – National Emergency Coordinator
“From tomorrow morning we will have the people in Punta Negra we are
getting them into shelters. In Gales Point it is right in the community so
they can just move into their shelter as early as possible it is not like
they have to travel very far, they just basically walk down the road and
get into a safe place if they know their homes are challenged in any way,
there may be some homes that some people might not be comfortable in. We
don’t want to forget that we have communities in the south that are prone
to flooding, these people live there they know they flood these people live
there they know they flood."

Gonguez says that the effects of Tropical Storm Harvey will begin to be
felt in Belizean territory early tomorrow.

Dennis Gonguez – Chief Meteorologist
The winds start affecting our extreme outer waters around 8:00 a,m.
tomorrow morning and as the day progresses we expect conditions to
deteriorate and the system makes landfall about 6:00 p.m.

NEMO officials are advising event organizers to consider putting their
planned weekend activities on hold until the storm passes. Likewise, the
best advice right now is to cancel any planned trips that involve our
coastal waters. By Sunday morning, Tropical Storm Harvey should have
crossed Belize into Guatemala.

Story at http://www.lovefm.com/ndisplay.php?nid=14518

BEL Advises of Power System Performance Related to the Approaching Tropical Storm Harvey

Belize Electricity Limited (BEL) advises that, in the event there is loss of power supply due to damages caused by the approaching Tropical Storm Harvey, the Company will dispatch work crews to the field as soon as it is safe to do so.

If weather conditions are such that it would make it unsafe for work crews, works will be delayed until conditions improve. If there are damages to the power system, customers are advised to be prepared for related power outages.

Customers are also asked to take note of the following safety tips:

- Remember to obtain batteries for your radio so that you can listen to storm advisories.

- If you are leaving your premises and suspect that there will be flooding, turn off the main switch before you leave.

- Do not touch appliances, cords, electrical tools or plugs with wet hands or while standing on a wet surface. Do not put electrical tools, appliances or cords in water.

- If the power goes off, do not attempt to reinstate the power supply. Turn off all power at your switch box and unplug all electrical appliances.

- Turn off the main breaker if the water level rises above or near the outlets and ensure that the entire premise is disconnected from any electrical source. Do not walk into any area or water that is perceived to be connected to any electrical source.

- Do not go to any of the power stations or sub-stations.

- If you encounter an electrical-injured victim, do not touch the person until they have been freed from the source of electricity. You can use a non-conductor, such as dry rope or wood to push or pull the victim away from the power source.

Customers are asked to report damages to the power system by calling BEL at 0-800-BEL-CARE or 0-800-235-2273. Remember, however, that BEL work crews will only be dispatched to the field when it is safe to do so.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...CENTER OF HARVEY NOW NORTHWEST OF ROATAN...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE STORM...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING HARVEY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

CLICK HERE for larger version

6:36 Am north of San Pedro Town .....
gray skies, breeze is kicking up, light chop, coastal express made its early morning run as usual and guys are strolling up the beach.
looks like it rained last night
can see a wall of rain on the horizon

from friends.....

Looks like a pretty direct hit to central area of Bze, but lucking out on the intensity side.

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The Navy chart below shows it going a little more due E than yesterday evening. Note the Chart also, projected max gust to 75 knots by 18z time, so they indicate intensifying and becoming a hurricane. However, still moving at 10 knots so I think he will run out of time to get too big before hitting shore. He is definitely a much more organized storm, and carrying more water now than yesterday.
Hunker down and be careful.

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Haven't had my first cup yet. LOVE FM and the Met chief are saying the eye will cross at Dangriga, and 3"-6" rain - still can strenghten some.

Raining here at Succotz.

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Not looking so bad. I check both storm pulse, underground and
noaa. Looks like it'll hit more south, but the strongest winds are on the
northern quadrant, and really, the worse place in the country for a storm
to hit is Belize city, because its
so low. Anyway, winds are not bad and its moving 12mph, which is good.
Assuming all those in low lying areas near creeks and rivers learned a
lesson after Arthur and will move to higher ground. I love listening to
Love FM during the storm, something like garrison keilor. Well, heres to
hoping life, limb and property are secured and we suffer little damages.

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ACCUWEATHER:

All eyes are focused on Tropical Storm Harvey in the Caribbean as it closes in on Belize today.

Harvey strengthened slightly overnight as it continued to track north of the Honduras coastline.

Environmental conditions favor additional strengthening as it tracks westward today.

However, the storm's proximity to the Honduras coastline will limit the intensification of the storm, but the water north of Honduras is very warm and it is not out of the question that the storm could strengthen to a hurricane before making landfall.

The main threat from this storm will be heavy flooding rains and strong winds that will impact northern Honduras, Belize, southeast Mexico, and northern Guatemala over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Harvey will unleash 4 to 8 inches of rain across northern Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala and the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico through this weekend.

The rain will also bring widespread concerns for flash flooding and mudslides across the mountainous terrains.

The winds from Harvey could down trees and power lines, as well as minor structural damage.

As Harvey pushes onshore and crosses the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico, the storm will weaken rapidly.

However, the storm will still produce large amounts of rain heading into the second half of the weekend.

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

Harvey Heading For Belize!

Tropical Storm Harvey is gaining strength and heading for Belize tonight. At 6:00 pm, the storm was located 255 miles east southeast of Belize City and heading west with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour.

The Government of Belize has declared a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of Belize. The country is in the Red Two Phase of the National Emergency Warning System and NEMO has been activated and on high alert.

The center of the storm will skirt past the Bay Islands of Honduras tonight and make landfall on Belize sometime tomorrow as a Tropical Storm.

We asked Chief Met Officer Dennis Gonguez - what will be the windspeed when it touches down in Belize:…

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Met Officer
"As it heads closer to us and approaching landfall tomorrow afternoon we expect the winds to further increase to near 60 miles per hour. So we are looking at a moderately strong tropical storm affecting us tomorrow."

Jules Vasquez
"Where is it expected to make landfall?"

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Met Officer
"The present track projections put in pretty much in the vicinity of where Richard made landfall last October. So it seems it's headed in that general direction. Just near where landfall will be we expect winds of 60 miles per hour and as it heads further north the winds should drop off to about 40 miles per hour in Belize City and then further north and south the winds will drop off to about 30-35 miles per hour in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts. Landfall will be shortly after mid-day to mid-afternoon tomorrow. It seems we will be out of fear by the evening. By Sunday we should start to see some clearing up in weather conditions in the morning."

Jules Vasquez
"Now we know that Hurricane Richard was only a category 1 storm. What should we expect from this one in terms of it being a tropical storm at landfall?"

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Met Officer
"Well Hurricane Richard was substantially stronger than what Tropical Storm Harvey is forecast to be and so we should not expect as much destruction as what happen last year with Hurricane Richard."

Jules Vasquez
"What is the threat to property and physical infrastructure? What should people be on the lookout for and what should people do if they feel they live in a fairly vulnerable structure?"

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Met Officer
"If you are of the opinion that your structure cannot withstand the wind speeds that I am speaking about then you have to look for a safe shelter."

Of course, the storm force winds are one thing, flooding is quite another, particularly in the south. A NEMO advisory issued this afternoon says that those living on Coastal communities, particularly Belize City, Dangriga, Mullins River, Gales Point, Monkey River, Silk Grass, Independence, the Placencia Peninsula, Seine Byte, Punta Negra, Hopkins and surrounding villages that normally flood and get cut off due to flooding are advised to move to higher grounds. Including communities in the Toledo District such as Midway, Corazon, Boom Creek, Bladden, Swasey and Golden Stream. Small communities along the Coastal Road and the Old Northern Highway are also advised to move to higher ground.

As for shelters, a 6:00 pm advisory notes that NEMO is making final preparations if the need arises to open shelters as follows: in the Belize district, in villages from along the old northern highway, in Belize city and Gales point. In the Cayo district: shelters will be open if the need arises in Belmopan and surrounding communities; in the Stann Creek district: Hopkins, Dangriga, the Placencia Peninsula, Independence and communities along the Hummingbird highway down to Monkey River in the Toledo district. Again, those shgelters will be open, quote, "if the need arises."

The advisory warns that those communities as well as San Ignacio and the surrounding villages are currently in the projected path of Tropical Storm Harvey including all cayes going south from English Caye to South Water Caye.

According to the advisory, "All NEMO staff is on full alert and key national and district committees are activated in the event…a rapid national response is required. Public Officers are advised to be on standby to report for duty as Shelter Wardens as the need arises.

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