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#417337 - 09/29/11 01:53 PM Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10
Marty Offline

The western Caribbean will need to be monitored very closely starting around October 10 as there is expected to be a fairly strong upward motion of the Madden Julian Oscillation located in the Caribbean right around October 13. It is worthy to note that the GFS model is no longer pushing back the date of tropical cyclone development and now seems to be pointing to between October 10 and October 13 that development may occur. Additionally, the European model is hinting that a broad area of low pressure will form in the southwestern Caribbean around October 8.

So, while it appears that the Caribbean will be quiet for the next week to 10 days, trouble may be brewing once we get into Columbus Day weekend and beyond.

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

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#417376 - 09/29/11 04:59 PM Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty]
Amanda Syme Offline
I read similar reports on other weather forecasting sites too. So let's be prepared folks.

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#417378 - 09/29/11 05:26 PM Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty]
Diane Campbell Offline
Time for the anti-hurricane dances to start.

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#417403 - 09/29/11 10:21 PM Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty]
Katie Valk Offline
Say it ain't so.
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#417407 - 09/29/11 11:59 PM Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty]
Diane Campbell Offline
Rob Lightbown is no dummy but he is also more speculative in his commentary than say, Steve Masters.

I really hate the SW Caribbean October thingys, but we do tend to survive them.

Here's to strong plywood, long nails and good friends.

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#417409 - 09/30/11 12:42 AM Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Diane Campbell]
SP Daily Offline
Start watching the buildup of weather down south towards Panama. That can be treacherous as it arrives quickly with little time to evacuate the cayes.

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#417415 - 09/30/11 02:26 AM Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: SP Daily]
Ernie B Offline
We, in Texas, are praying for a cain
_________________________
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#417416 - 09/30/11 03:10 AM Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: SP Daily]
Diane Campbell Offline
Originally Posted By: SP Daily
Start watching the buildup of weather down south towards Panama. That can be treacherous as it arrives quickly with little time to evacuate the cayes.


understood - we're watching

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#417424 - 09/30/11 12:51 PM Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty]
elbert Offline
Amazing forecast of a hurricane hitting that hasn't even been born yet.
I'm gona hold off boarding up the windows for a while.
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