One area of concern we continue to monitor is a broad area of low pressure over Central America. We expect this area of low pressure to move northeast and slowly become better organized over the western Caribbean north of Honduras later in the weekend into early next week. This system could become a tropical storm before a cold front reaches the area on Wednesday. If the upper-level trough supporting next week system could not only impact Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico it could also affect Cuba and perhaps even Florida. But there is a lot of uncertainty in the development and future movement of this system.
Until this system becomes a coherent feature we can only provide potential scenarios. Some global computer models show the feature organizing into a tropical system and getting ejected northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week ahead of a strong cold front. However, other computer information suggests the low pressure area will get stuck in and around the Yucatan all next week and never become an organized tropical system. Anyone living in this area or having interests in this area of the Atlantic Basin should keep up with the latest updates on this system.
Broad low pressure is located just east of Belize this morning. This low pressure system was producing widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain and the threat for flash flooding and mud slides across central America, the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, much of Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
This is a very large and broad area of low pressure and any development this weekend into next week will be slow to occur. With that said, this low pressure will need to be watched closely for signs of development as environmental conditions are actually somewhat favorable for development.
I’m leaning strongly towards the European model forecast which shows this disturbance meandering very close to the eastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula from today through Sunday before it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday night. The European model then forecasts this system to become sheared out to the northeast by Tuesday as that strong trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The moisture and energy from this disturbance will be pulled northeastward bringing heavy rain and strong winds to much of the eastern United States once we get into Wednesday and Thursday.