We continue to watch a low pressure center in the southwest Caribbean Sea. It is located just off the east coast of Nicaragua and is only slowly drifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized over the last 12 hours despite upper-level shear being light enough for further organization. A strong area of high pressure located to the north of this feature will likely steer it into Central America on Sunday, limiting any chance for development this weekend.
An upper-level trough of low pressure will sink to the southeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, then across Florida on Monday. We think this will steer the tropical low on a more northward track toward the northwest Caribbean Sea early next week. The waters of the northwest Caribbean have a deep warm layer which is favorable for organization and intensification. If the shear remains light aloft over the northwest Caribbean, and this system gets over these deep warm waters, we could see a tropical storm develop at the least. However, one limiting factor will be a lot of dry air perched over the Gulf of Mexico that could get drawn into the circulation and slow the process down. Later next week, a strong upper-level trough associated with a cold front will deepen across Texas toward the Gulf of Mexico and we feel this will help to steer the tropical cyclone to the north and east. Florida, Cuba or the Bahamas could wind up in the path of this system later next week.
Hey there Sprout - 50 MPH we can take without a problem. Chill and do not freak out until it gets to 150 - then a good EEEk is in order. BUT we've been there and done that and survived too. The main thing is to be prepared for inconvenience ......... and the more prepared you are the less inconvenienced you are.
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.
Accuweather 8am
We continue to watch a low pressure center in the southwest Caribbean Sea. It is located roughly 150 miles east-southeast of the Honduras and Nicaragua border. Satellite imagery continues to show robust yet disorganized shower and thunderstorm development associated with this low pressure center. This feature will continue to slowly move off to the north or northwest over the next 12 to 24 hours, so it should remain offshore over the warm waters of the western Caribbean.
An upper-level trough of low pressure will sink to the southeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico today, then across Florida on Monday. We think this will steer the tropical low on a more northward and eventually northwestward track across the Caribbean early this week.
The waters of the northwest Caribbean have a deep warm layer which is favorable for organization and intensification. If the shear remains light aloft over the northwest Caribbean, and this system gets over these deep warm waters, we could see a tropical storm develop at the least.
However, one limiting factor will be a lot of dry air perched over the Gulf of Mexico that could get drawn into the circulation and slow the process down. Later this week, a strong upper-level trough associated with a cold front will deepen across Texas toward the Gulf of Mexico and we feel this will help to steer the tropical cyclone to the north and east during the latter half of the week. This movement would bring any potential tropical system or at the very least its moisture northeastward across Florida, Cuba or the Bahamas during the last half of the week.
Note by editor: "We could see a Tropical Storm at the least." Doesn't sound like it's going to be super strong AT THIS POINT.
Western Caribbean disturbance 96L close to tropical depression status
Jeff Masters
3:21 PM GMT on October 23, 2011
A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) has become more organized this morning, and is close to tropical depression status. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon at 2 pm EDT to see if a tropical depression has formed. The system is located just offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras border, and is bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is close to having a well-developed surface circulation, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the west side of the center, due to a large region of dry air to the east. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the east, and these winds are injecting dry air into 96L's east side, keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on that side. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.
Forecast for 96L I expect 96L will be able to organize into a tropical depression later today or on Monday, though this process will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. Steering currents favor a motion to the west-northwest or northwest, and it is likely that heavy rains from 96L will spread over Belize by Tuesday night, when the storm will probably be called Tropical Storm Rina. Heavy rains from the storm will spread over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun, by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, 96L will be encountering a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since 96L is a small storm, these hostile conditions should cause the storm to weaken significantly before any potential landfall occurs.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 81.9 west. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h. This general motion is expected to continue tonight...followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast track... the center of the depression is expected to pass north of the northeastern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or two and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 82.2W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
If the forecast is right we will have a windy and rainy Thursday.
Tropical Storm Rina is forecast to strike Belize as a tropical storm at about 18:00 GMT on 27 October. Data supplied by the US National Hurricane Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near17.7 N,87.0 W. TS Rina is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 92 km/h (57 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
NAVY TRACK:
More info //ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/419626.html
Tropical Storm Rina formed in the Western Caribbean Sea just off the coast of Honduras last night, and is headed north-northwest towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
Visible satellite loops show that Rina has had a respectable burst of thunderstorm activity with high, cold cloud tops this morning. This "Central Dense Overcast" (CDO) is characteristic of intensifying tropical storms that are a threat to reach hurricane strength. Rina has been bringing sporadic heavy rain squalls to the Cayman Islands over the past day; George Town on Grand Cayman Island had received 2.28" of rain and a peak wind gust of 31 mph as of 9 am EDT from the storm. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's southeast side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. We don't have any surface wind reports from the vicinity of Rina; the closest buoy is Western Caribbean buoy 42057, about 60 miles east of Rina's center, which had top sustained winds out of the ESE at 29 mph this morning. We'll have to wait for the next hurricane hunter flight, scheduled for 2 pm this afternoon, to get a better idea of Rina's intensity.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Rina.
Forecast for Rina The intensity forecast for Rina has a high amount of uncertainty. Rina should be able to slowly intensify through Tuesday, becoming a strong tropical storm. On Wednesday, Rina will be approaching a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since Rina is a small storm, these hostile conditions could cause the storm to dissipate on Wednesday as it nears landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models. The completely opposite scenario is predicted by the GFDL and HWRF models, which forecast Rina will stay just south of the high shear/dry air region, and attain major hurricane status. The official NHC forecast of a Category 1 Hurricane Rina late this week is a reasonable compromise between these extremes. The track forecast for Rina also presents difficulties. A west-northwest to northwest motion towards the Yucatan Peninsula is likely through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, but the models are increasingly suggesting that Rina will not be far enough north to get caught up in the trough, but instead will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. None of the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, or HWRF models are predicting that Rina's center will make it north of Cuba during the next five days. In any case, heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday.
97L A broad region of low pressure about 300 miles west of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L), is moving west-northwest at 10 mph through the Caribbean Sea. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air, and no signs of a surface circulation. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, and this shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By the time 97L reaches the region between Jamaica and Nicaragua in the Central Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression. The NOGAPS model predicts 97L could develop into a tropical depression by Saturday.
All interests across the western Caribbean, including those of you in Belize, Cancun, Cozumel, western Cuba, should monitor the progress of this storm very closely http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
Rina Has Become A Hurricane & Will Likely Become A Major Hurricane Sometime On Tuesday
Rob Lightbown on October 24, 2011, 2:30 pm
Hurricane Rina:
Very quick afternoon update to let you all know that Rina has and still is rapidly strengthening. Reconnaissance aircraft found that it is now a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane. Additionally, visible satellite imagery clearly shows an eye trying to form this afternoon.
Other than that, I have no other changes to my forecast thinking from this morning. I still think that Rina will impact the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel, on Thursday night into Friday; except now, I think Rina will be a lot stronger and those of you in Cancun and Cozumel should be prepared for a Category 3 hurricane. After that I am forecasting that Rina will turn to the northeast and potentially impact the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday as a Category 1 or possibly a low end Category 2 hurricane. The northwestern Bahamas may also be affected by a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday before it becomes extra-tropical next Monday.
All interests across the western Caribbean, including those of you in Belize, Cancun, Cozumel, western Cuba, should monitor the progress of this storm very closely. Additionally, everyone in the Florida Keys and south Florida should closely monitor the progress of Rina over the next few days.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...
120 km/h...with higher gusts. Rina is a category one hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening
is expected during the next 48 hours and Rina is forecast to become
a major hurricane by late Tuesday.
Rina grew into a Category 1
hurricane today and is expected to become stronger as it moves
toward resorts on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the U.S. National
Hurricane Center said.
Rina's top winds are now 75 miles (120 kilometers) per
hour, up from 40 mph earlier today, according to a center
advisory at about 2 p.m. New York time. The system is the sixth
hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic storm season.
"Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48
hours and Rina is forecast to become a major hurricane by late
Tuesday," the center said. "Interests in Belize, the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands should
monitor the progress of Rina."
Rina is forecast to approach Cancun by week's end and then
possibly curve east toward Cuba, the center's tracking maps
show. The system is about 360 miles east-southeast of Chetumal,
Mexico, moving northwest at 5 mph.
A major hurricane has winds of at least 111 mph, capable of
snapping trees, blowing down poorly built homes and creating a
"high risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets due
to flying and falling debris," the center said.
Reconnaissance Flight
A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance airplane flew into
the storm today and discovered it had grown rapidly in strength,
the center said. Hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph extend
15 miles from its core and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph
or more reach out 115 miles.
Outstanding set of links for tropical storms in Belize! I will be arriving Thursday morning just in time for the fun. I normally deal with wildfires in Nevada, so this will be a new experience.
Outstanding set of links for tropical storms in Belize! I will be arriving Thursday morning just in time for the fun. I normally deal with wildfires in Nevada, so this will be a new experience.
Jim
We have had our share of wildfires in Texas, about 40,000 acres that got pretty close to my casa. 1 1/2 miles to be exact.
We fly from Dallas on Saturday to Belize, could make for a bumpy flight
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 500 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011
INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF RINA AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS NOT REPORTED ANY STRONGER WINDS SINCE THEIR INITIAL PASS INTO THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1800 UTC...AND BASED ON THE EARLIER DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT.
RINA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. SO FAR...RINA HAS REMAINED WELL INSULATED FROM THE DRY AIR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT REACH THE CORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT... SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RINA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE ISSUED IN THE SPECIAL ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE RAPID CHANGES BOTH UP AND DOWN IN ITS INTENSITY.
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RINA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS SHOWING AN EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA.
Rina is now a hurricane, just 21 hours after becoming a tropical depression. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 75 mph--Category 1 hurricane strength--at 1:40 pm EDT in the north eyewall of Rina, using their SFMR surface wind instrument. Winds at flight level of 5,000 feet peaked at 78 mph, which typically translates to surface winds of 62 mph. On their second pass through the eye at 3:30 pm EDT, the winds were about 5 mph less, but the central pressure had fallen by two millibars, to 989 mb. Visible satellite loops show that Rina now has an eye, and the storm is steadily expanding in size and developing an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the north. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's southeast side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Rina. An intense thunderstorm with a top that reaches into the stratosphere is visible on the southwest side of the eye. These "hot towers" are commonly seen in hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification.
Rina in historical context Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours. Rina's formation brings this year's tally of hurricanes to six, which is average for an Atlantic hurricane season. The number of named storms this season is now seventeen, making it the 7th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, 2010, and 1969 had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. Only 35% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength, and normally 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for this very unusual occurrence.
Forecast for Rina The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday, Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday. On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.
A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength. Heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday. Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October bring to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also performed such a feat in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced. Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.
Quote from: HurricaneTrack.com You never like to see this with any hurricane, much less one tucked in to the NW Caribbean Sea in late October: "GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA."
Early Monday morning, forecasters said they anticipated slow strengthening, with Rina becoming a hurricane by Friday. But by 2 p.m. Monday, Rina had spun up with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles an hour - enough to reach hurricane status. Rina now is projected to become a major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds in excess of 110 miles an hour, within the next 48 hours.
The center of Rina currently is located some 207 miles east northeast of Trujillo, Honduras. Current track projections - with large uncertainties at the end of the five-day forecast period - have the center of the storm skirting the northern Yucat�n Peninsula on Thursday and Friday before hooking eastward toward the western tip of Cuba.
Two key factors in Rina's spin-up: very warm sea-surface temperatures and a general wind environment that changes little in speed or direction with rising altitude. Such changes, dubbed wind shear, appear to have weakened since early Monday morning, according to forecast discussions. Strong shear tends to stifle hurricane development.
"Rita is in a very good environment" for strengthening, says Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
An animation of NOAA's GOES-13 satellite observations shows the development of Hurricane Rina from the low pressure area called System 96L (bottom, center) in the western Caribbean Sea. GOES-13 cloud images are overlaid on a true-color NASA/MODIS map. The observations date from October 22 at 8:45 a.m. EDT through Oct. 24 at 7:45 a.m. EDT; Rina formally became a Tropical Storm at 10 p.m. EDT on Oct. 23, and a hurricane later on Oct. 24.
Washington Post:
An approach to the Yucatan at low-end hurricane strength could bring lots of rain and gusty winds to places like Belize and Cancun. A substantial northward move thereafter toward the southern Gulf of Mexico appears, at this point, unlikely.
The official National Hurricane Center track for Rina over the next five days (National Hurricane Center) The models largely agree that Rina will not make it out of the Caribbean, and instead turn around and move back to the south beyond the 5-day forecast period. In the unlikely event it were to get pulled northward, the odds are that it would be coupled with a mid-latitude weather system strong enough to seriously damage its tropical characteristics.
At 3:00am the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.1 N, Latitude and 83.1 W, Longitude or about 350 miles east-southeast of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading northwest at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.
The NEMO National Executive Committee met and the following public advisory for the Country will be placed into action:
NEMO declares Phase II-Red 1, Hurricane watch from Belize City Northward to the Belize Mexican Border.
Water Taxi operations may be suspended for tomorrow due to the possible evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker. The public is to take note that this will affect their travel plans tomorrow.
School will be closed for San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow. The UB Gymnasium will be used as shelter for San Pedro and UB Scarlet Macaw for Caye Caulker. The Coast Guard will coordinate Caye Caulker evacuation.
Some of the public transportation in the North of the country will be disrupted to assist with coastal to inland evacuation. The public is to take note that this will affect their travel plans tomorrow.
People in Belize City who feel unsafe are being advise to seek shelter inland.
NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Hurricane Rina. Please continue listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service.
The San Pedro branch of the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) was mobilized this afternoon and held an emergency meeting in conjunction with the San Pedro Town Council. Public Servants along with other volunteers were at the meeting where plans for the island were discussed.
The meeting was called at 5pm about two hours after NEMO National Office issued its first advisory. The San Pedro Sun caught up with Mayor Elsa Paz after the meeting. The Mayor stated, "We are advising the public that Hurricane Rina is approximately 350 miles southeast of Belize City. The movement is going west north-west at 3 mph. We are advising the public that evacuation will be starting as early as 6am tomorrow morning.
The evacuation is not mandatory. However the general public is advised that this storm is very serious and are all necessary precautions must be taken. Fuel for the evacuation will be provided by the GOB and according to the Mayor, the price for moving/evacuating should be lowered. The SPTC along with NEMO volunteers will be hitting the streets early tomorrow morning. Their main objective in the morning is to get people residing in the lower areas of San Pedro off the island first. Residents of San Mateo, San Pedrito and DFC area are advised to take the initiative and prepare to leave the island.
Flights are not being suspended at the moment. Evacuees are advised to take only personal belongings to make the process as easy as possible. A second meeting of the NEMO committee in San Pedro is scheduled for Tuesday morning at 8am.
NEMO stated that water taxi service is cancelled coming to the cayes for tomorrow but water taxis are leaving the island and fare is free to Belize City for those wishing to evacuate. UB campus in Belmopan is the shelter for AC and CC. Bus service is cancelled for the north runs in the country to move evacuees from the cayes to Belmopan. A mandatory evacuation has NOT been announced at this time.
NEMO declares Phase II-Red 1, Hurricane watch from Belize City Northward to the Belize Mexican Border. Hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
Evacuations start at 6am tomorrow and will end Wednesday evening or when it is no longer safe to so.
All eyes are on Hurricane Rina. The system went from a Tropical Disturbance to a Hurricane in less than twenty four hours. And forecasters believe that the season's sixth hurricane is destined to be a major storm perhaps as strong as a category three hurricane. A short while ago we spoke with National Emergency Coordinator Noreen Fairweather for the latest update on the Hurricane watch on Hurricane Rina.
Noreen Fairweather - NEMO National Coordinator
"The NEMO National Executive met this afternoon and subsequent to that we issued this pubic advisory in terms of the status of where we are with Hurricane Rina. At three o'clock NEMO declared phase two red one which is a Hurricane watch from Belize City north to the Belize Mexican border. Water taxi operations will be suspended tomorrow due to the possible evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker and the public is advised to take note that this will be affecting their travel plans to and from the islands.
School will be closed for San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow; the UB Gym will be used as a shelter for the people that are being evacuated from San Pedro and UB Scarlet Macaw building will be used as a shelter for the Caye Caulker people that are evacuating, these are the designated shelters as published in our national shelter list for evacuations. The operations coming out of the Cayes, in San Pedro the NEMO Coordinator will be overseeing those operations and out of Caye Caulker the Belize Coast Guard will be overseeing the operations out of Caye Caulker.
As a result of all these movements, in the North part of the county, bus runs in the north will be impacted by some of the runs that are running in that area so folks using the public transportation in those areas need to be cognizant of that and their movements will be interrupted in terms of the scheduling and so on. We are asking the public to please take note that the evacuation of the islands will be affecting their travel plans, I know that people need to get to and from work and will be reporting to work tomorrow.
NEMO would like to advise the general public to remain on full alert as we continue to monitor Hurricane Rina. We also want to make another announcement as relates to public officers, the Ministry of Public Service has issued a release and they are requesting that public officers who have been assigned shelter management duties in the Belmopan area to report to the Shoman Resource Management representative and that is at the City of Belmopan emergency operating center and that is located at City Hall on Trinity Boulevard and they are being asked to report at six a.m. tomorrow morning so that's the shelter managers for the Belmopan area are being asked to report to the City of Belmopan EOC at six a.m. where they will be assigned their specific duties at that location.
All other public officers are asked to keep abreast of the NEMO advisories and to remain on standby in the event that shelters are required to be opened in other parts of the country. More than likely some of that will be happening on Wednesday as we seek to evacuate the coastal communities running from Belize City area that has the advisory to the north those communities such as Sarteneja, Chunox, Shipstern, Bomba, Santa Ana and that entire area in the northern of the country so we are asking public officers to be alert.
Persons have been issued their advisories as to what areas they would be assigned duties so once that announcement comes out they are asked to report to the nearest human resource management representative at the EOC that has been designated for them in that particular city or town. Public officers are also reminded that if they need to take shelter in a district, town or city they should report to the EOC in that area so if you live in area where you yourself will be sheltering, you report to the EOC in that area. The Ministry of Public Service is asking that we share those reminders with officers at this time.
Generally we ask the public to remain on full alert and listen to the official advisories that will be issued by NEMO and the national Met Service."
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST. RINA IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
Rina became a hurricane Monday afternoon and has increased into a category 2 hurricane this morning. Additional strengthening is likely, and Rina could become a major hurricane later today or Wednesday. - Will slowly move generally to the west-northwest for the next couple of days, in the direction of the Yucatan Peninsula - Could bring locally heavy rains...
Hurricane Rina lies 100 miles north of Honduras moving WNW at 3mph. Winds are 100mph and expected to strengthen tomorrow. Rina is expected to make landfall near Cancun, Mexico on Thursday night.
Invest 97 lies north of Curacao moving west at 19mph. Winds are 30mph. The NHC estimates a 40% chance that it will develop during the next 48 hours. Computer models predict that it will move NW toward the Gulf of Mexico and may become a hurricane by Friday.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
Hurricane Rina is a Category 2 Hurricane located at 17.4° N, 83.8° W with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, gusting to 120 mph
Convection continues to build around the circulation of Rina and a gradual increase in strength is expected over the next 24 hours. Rina is the sixth hurricane of the tropical season and has reached Category 2 strength; Rina could become a major hurricane by Wednesday. Rina is located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, approximately 210 miles southwest of Grand Cayman. Environmental conditions will remain somewhat favorable for strengthening in that the wind shear will be light and the sea surface temperatures are more than warm enough to sustain a system. However, one limiting factor for significant strengthening will be a lot of dry air perched over the Gulf of Mexico that could get drawn into the circulation and slow the strengthening process down.
Through the middle of the week, Rina will continue tracking slowly toward the west, north of the coast of Honduras. By the latter part of the week, a strong upper-level trough associated with a cold front will deepen across Texas toward the Gulf of Mexico, and we feel this will help to steer the tropical cyclone to the north and perhaps northeast. This movement could bring the tropical system near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday or Friday. Some moisture from the storm could extend northeastward across Florida, Cuba or the Bahamas by the end of the week or this weekend, but at this time it is very questionable if the center of the storm will make it much farther north than the Yucatan Channel. However, residents of South Florida should monitor the progress of Rina very closely as some computer models do take the center of Rina over the Florida Keys or the southernmost tip of Florida later on Friday or Friday night.
The other area we are monitoring for potential development right now is a broad area of low pressure that is currently over the extreme southeastern Caribbean Sea. Although satellite imagery continues to show some shower and thunderstorm development associated with this low pressure center, it remains rather disorganized without a low-level center of circulation. This area of low pressure will bring some gusty showers and thunderstorms to the central and southern Windward Islands today as it continues to track westward. This low center should continue to track westward across the Caribbean later in the week, and some development will be possible once it reaches the western Caribbean.
The rest of the North Atlantic tropical basin will not support tropical development for at least the next few days.
Hurricane Rina Strengthens in Caribbean on Track Toward Yucatan Peninsula
Hurricane Rina strengthened to a
Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale as it
churned over Caribbean waters toward resorts on Mexico's Yucatan
Peninsula, the National Hurricane Center said.
Rina's top winds are 100 miles (160 kilometers) per hour,
up from 80 mph earlier, according to an NHC website advisory at
5 a.m. Miami time. It's the sixth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic
storm season that runs from June through November.
"Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so" as
the storm spins over warm waters off the north coast of
Honduras, the center said. Rina may become a major storm later
today or tomorrow, the NHC said.
Mexico issued a hurricane watch from north of Punta Gruesa
to Cancun, which means hurricane conditions are possible within
the area and readied 1,130 storm shelters in the state of
Quintana Roo, which includes Cancun and Cozumel. The country
also declared a tropical storm watch for the east coast of the
Yucatan from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa, the NHC said.
Rina Nearing Resorts
Rina is forecast to approach Cancun in two days, then curve
east toward the west tip of Cuba by the weekend, the NHC's
tracking maps show. The system is about 320 miles east-southeast
of Chetumal, moving west-northwest at 3 mph.
The center forecasts Rina's winds will strengthen to at
least 120 mph, a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale
with the power to snap trees, blow down poorly built homes and
create a "high risk of injury or death to people, livestock and
pets due to flying and falling debris."
Hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph extend 15 miles
from its core and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more
reach out 115 miles, the NHC said.
The center is also monitoring a low-pressure system just
north of Curacao that's producing thunderstorms over the
southeastern Caribbean. The system has a 40 percent chance of
forming into a tropical cyclone in the next two days, the center
said in a weather outlook.
Exactly one year ago, on October 24th, 2010, Hurricane Richard mauled and mashed up south-central and western Belize. And tonight on the anniversary of that terrible storm, Belize is under hurricane watch for another: Rina.
Tonight Rina is a category one hurricane sitting on the northeast coast of Nicaragua and, which is about 350 miles east-southeast of Belize. The storm is heading northwest at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.
NEMO has declared Phase II-Red 1, Hurricane watch from Belize City Northward to the Belize Mexican Border.
San Pedro will have voluntary evacuation starting at 6:00 am tomorrow and water taxis will not be allowed to bring travelers to the island.
School will also be closed for San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow. The UB Gymnasium will be used as shelter for San Pedro and UB Scarlet Macaw for Caye Caulker. The Coast Guard will coordinate Caye Caulker evacuation.
Some of the public transportation in the North of the country will be disrupted to assist with coastal to inland evacuation. The public is to take note that this will affect their travel plans tomorrow.
Today, we went to NEMO Headquarters in Belmopan to get a threat assessment from Chief Met Officer Dennis Gonguez:..
Dennis Gonguez - Chief Met Officer "Yesterday Sunday at 3pm the eighteenth tropical depression of this year hurricane season formed over the northwestern Caribbean and by 9pm this system became hurricane Rina. The system strengthened rapidly during the course of today and now it's a category 1 hurricane."
"Conditions are favorable for this system to further intensify and quite possible we will be seeing a major hurricane east of us by Tuesday night. The present projection for landfall is north along the Yucatan Peninsula, north of the country of Belize. However there are some uncertainties in the track at this time, so we are thinking about issuing hurricane watches for Belize City northwards. We are considering declaring the first phase of the national emergency plan at 3 pm for Belize City northwards. That means hurricane conditions are likely within the next 48 hours."
"The ones out at the Cayes have to start to consider evacuation tomorrow and definitely on Wednesday, so it is more urgent the for the folks in the Cayes to be prepared for evacuation for Wednesday."
"This system has potential to become, like I said a major hurricane by tomorrow night and could impact us severely come late Wednesday or Thursday"
Forecasters say the storm is expected to make landfall within the next 48 hours.
NEMO remains on full alert and regular advisories will be available on local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service.
Hurricane Rina is now a Category 2 storm, headed slowly west-northwest at 3 mph towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The most recent hurricane hunter mission was at 4:32 am EDT this morning, and the next aircraft is not due into the storm until this afternoon, so we'll have to rely on satellite estimates of the storm's strength until then. Recent satellite intensity estimates suggest Rina has leveled off in intensity, with no change in strength since the last hurricane hunter mission. A murky, cloud-filled eye is visible on visible satellite loops right now. Rina also has an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the north, and very intense thunderstorms with cold clouds tops that extend up to the stratosphere. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the south, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's south side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Rina has brought sporadic heavy rain squalls to the Cayman Islands; George Town on Grand Cayman has received 4.76" of rain over the past three days from Rina, as of 9 am EDT this morning.
Forecast for Rina The hurricane hunters found Rina's eyewall had a gap in it during their 4:32 am EDT eye penetration this morning, probably caused by the moderate wind shear the storm has experienced over the past day. It is unlikely that Rina will be able to "bomb" and undergo rapid intensification unless it can close off this gap in the eyewall. Wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday night, so Rina still has a day and a half to continue its intensification process. Given the storm's inability to close off its eyewall so far, I expect that a Category 3 storm is the strongest that we will see. On Wednesday night, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.
A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, which should turn Rina more to the northwest by Thursday and northeast on Friday. However, it is uncertain if Rina will be strong enough to fully "feel" the steering influence of this through and be swept to the east-northeast into Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys. If Rina makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula and weakens significantly, the storm will likely be too weak to get caught up by the trough and will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. This is the solution of the latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models. However, if Rina remains strong through Friday, it is more likely to get caught up by the trough and drawn into the Florida Keys as a weakening tropical storm on Friday or Saturday. This is the solution of the latest 2 am EDT runs of the GFDL and GFS models. There is high degree of uncertainty which set of model runs will be correct.
Comparing Rina to Hurricane Wilma of 2005 Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October brings to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also did this in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced (Figure 3). Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.
Hurricane Rina, now a Category 2 storm heading towards Mexico, is wreaking havoc with cruise ship itineraries. Carnival Cruise Lines alone changed eight itineraries due to the late-season hurricane. Several Carnival ships headed early to Cozumel so they can be out of the area before the storm makes landfall.
Carnival Inspiration, for instance, skipped Grand Cayman and visited Cozumel yesterday and was calling at Progresso, Mexico, today on its five-day cruise from Tampa. Carnival Imagination, on a four-day sailing from Miami, is skipping Cozumel altogether and on Thursday will call instead at Nassau, Bahamas.
Hurricane Rina has also impacted the itineraries of the Carnival Legend, Liberty, Freedom, Valor, Triumph and Destiny.
Other cruise lines were monitoring the situation. Norwegian Cruise Line reports no changes "at this time."
They stopped running the boats for a while to see if it was gong to turn and come towards it, but now they're running the boats again. If I was a tourist, I would stay RIGHT HERE on Caye Caulker and not head towards Tulum and Cancun.
The storm is dead even with us now. The tracking map puts us on the southern edge of the strike zone, and means the breeze will be coming from the West, which is good for me as I have no windows facing west, only one door (which can be closed). The beach might get a bit beat up though. Its too cold for a hurricane, and too late in the season. I just restocked the cafe to reopen tomorrow. Let's hope that this storm churns up the warm Caribbean waters so the system following dies out.
NEMO starts evacuation process in San Pedro and Caye Caulker
Hurricane Rina was upgraded to category 2 storm and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) in Belize continues to monitor the storm as it approaches our general area. Today, at 6:00AM evacuation process started in San Pedro Town, on Ambergris Caye. Water taxes from the various companies started the evacuation process as ordered by NEMO.
People began entering the waiting area with basic but necessary items including personal belongings. The process is simple and easy. Once at the office of the water taxi, individual must give specific information that will facilitate NEMO officials to document each person that leaves the island. Evacuation by boat is free. Residents living in the low-lying areas are encouraged to evacuate off the island first. On the other hand, local airlines are flying on normal schedule today (Tuesday October 25th,2011). NO PERSON WILL BE ALLOWED TO COME ON THE ISLAND BY PUBLIC WATER VESSELS. In Caye Caulker, the Belize Coast Guard is spearheading the evacuation process
Hardware stores on the island are beginning to make plywood, nails and other material to board down houses available. The San Pedro Branch of NEMO will meet at 8:00AM and a press briefing is expected shortly after the meeting. The Belizean public is advice to listen to official local bulletins emitted by NEMO and the Belize Met Service. We will continue to provide updates throughout the course of the day.
Residents storm into the office to register thier names.
Islanders preparing to evacuate
Only personal belongins are being taken by residents.
NEMO officials and law enforcement agencies assist in documenting the islanders.
Waiting to evacuate off Ambergris Caye.
Fully loaded vessels prepares to leave San Pedro..
Have an evacuation plan.
Wave over the reef can be seen from off the island.
Hardware store stock up on plywood.
Phase II - Red 1 Flag at the San Pedro Police Station.
Closure of Belize Audubon Society Co-Managed Protected Areas
In order to protect the safety of our guests and prepare for Hurricane Rina, the Belize Audubon Society would like to inform the public that the Halfmoon Caye and Blue Hole Natural Monuments and the Crooked Tree Wildlife Sanctuary will be closed today, October 25th, 2011 until further notice.
Your cooperation is greatly appreciated. We apologize for any inconveniences caused.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RINA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH A SMALL EYE SEEN IN AN 1128 UTC SSMIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED 12Z DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE HURRICANE IS SITUATED OVER A REGION OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE EXPERIENCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST RUN OF THE LGEM MODEL.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/03...AS RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN RINA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN TURNING EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE NHC TRACK LYING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
BASED ON THE FASTER TRACK FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
At 9:00am the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.4 N, Latitude and 83.9 W, Longitude or about 284 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west northwest at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. TS force winds extends out to 115 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 15 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become to major Hurricane within the next 24 hours.
The NEMO National Executive Committee met at 6:30 am this morning and discussed the projected forecast, reports and advisories. Hurricane Rina has moved both westward and northward closer towards Belize.
This morning at 6:25 a.m. 42 people were evacuated from Caye Caulker. The UB Scarlet Macaw building has been prepared to shelter the evacuees from Caye Caulker. 234 people were evacuated from San Pedro. The UB Gymnasium has been prepared to shelter the evacuees from San Pedro.
The Coast Guard has been warning and evacuating people from the atolls and surrounding Caye's. The public is advised that prevailing Sea and Wind conditions can change suddenly even when the Sky is clear. People who do not evacuate when the conditions are favourable must be aware that there will be no evacuation by NEMO once the weather conditions do not permit.
NEMO remains at Phase II-Red 1, Hurricane Watch from Belize City Northward to the Belize/ Mexican Border.
NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. NEMO urges the public to pay keen attention, listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service. Rina is likely to become a powerful Hurricane. Stay alert! Stay tune! Take the necessary actions!
So far so good for Belize; looking at the projected path we might be out of the cone of uncertainty and if we end up on the south side of the storm the sea should get pretty rough which can cause beach erosion and some damage to piers and dive shops. It looks like a normal day in San Pedro, as people are heading to work, nobody has started boarding up their homes yet and very few people are voluntarily evacuating. But many are grateful that NEMO is providing free evacuation for those who want to leave the islands from now.
Evacuations started since 6a.m. this morning and are scheduled until Wednesday afternoon, weather conditions permitting. The water taxi vessels will be used to carry people out of the island and NOT bringing people back in.
People wanting to return to the island will only be able to do so on personal boats or private charters or through the local airlines which are still scheduled to conduct their regular flights. NEMO encourages people not to come to the island if they do not have a place of shelter. There will also be no boat runs to Chetumal, Mexico.
Elito Arceo is arranging trips to Bomba, Maskal, and those seeking to move in that direction need to contact the NEMO office located on Barrier Reef Drive or call 226-4291/226-3654/226-3695 or 600-8672.
Hurricane Rina strengthens, on track towards Yucatan
Hurricane Rina as seen from NOAA GOES 13 at 12:30 EDT.
(NASA)
Hurricane Rina has gradually intensified over the past day, reaching category 2 strength. Aircraft reconnaissance penetrations have recently observed maximum sustained winds near 105 mph (90 knots; pressure 971 mb), just 6 mph shy of category 3 intensity. Positioned about 300 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico, it’s on a slow west-northwest jog at about 3 mph.
Conditions are expected to begin deterioriating over the eastern Yucatan in the next 24-36 hours with a possible landfall on Thursday. Hurricane warnings are posted along much of Yucatan Peninsula’s east coast in Mexico, including Cancun.
Despite its continued strengthening, Rina did not deepen explosively overnight, especially when compared to some big storms in recent times that moved across a similar sector of the tropics.
For example, Hurricane Wilma’s pressure dropped 100 mb in 27 hours (while the wind went from 70 mph to over 170 mph) as it moved over the same part of the Caribbean back in late October 2005. Fortunately, we are not dealing with a situation as dire.
Satellite appearance and near-term intensity
Rina’s tempered rate of intensification may reflect the vast extent of the surrounding exceptionally dry air (shaded in orange in the image below) as discussed yesterday.
The satellite presentation of the storm itself looks healthy for now, with thunderstorm clouds widely distributed across the vortex, and the cirrus-cloud outflow nearly unrestricted in the northeast quadrant.
In the image below, you can actually see a trail of clouds extending from Rina northeastward towards the middle part of the Atlantic. In some circumstances, a cloud pattern like this would actually favor the quick intensification of a tropical cyclone, owing to the apparent existence of an unobstructed outflow channel. But in this case, the dry air to the north may be too much to overcome.
Water vapor image of Rina, showing dry air to the north
(NOAA)
It’s hard to imagine that, with such dry air in close proximity to Rina’s core, that it will not put at least some kind of brake on further development. In fact, it may even be doing that now, as close-up satellite images show a not-so symmetric, somewhat ragged appearance.
Close-up water vapor image of Rina from Tuesday morning
(NOAA)
Nevertheless, some modest stregthening is possible and the National Hurricane Center predicts it will become a major category 3 hurricane in the next day.
Impacts over the Yucatan
As long as Rina remains in this part of Caribbean atmosphere, it will remain a significant concern to nearby land masses.
Fortunately, the radius of hurricane force winds is only 15 miles (for now). With the center of this extremely compact storm expected to approach the Yucatan coast Thursday morning at hurricane strength, destructive wind gusts would surely accompany an eyewall passage, but probably not extend outward much beyond that, especially if the center of Rina parallels the coast on a northward track. Rainfall amounts in a much larger swath could reach 8 to as much as 16 inches due to the storm’s slow forward motion. Flooding may well be Rina’s most significant impact.
Long-term track: Florida in play?
A substantial northward movement into the Gulf of Mexico appears unlikely. Most models agree that Rina will not make it north of 25N.
Many of them still turn the cyclone around and move it back to the south beyond the 5-day forecast period shown above. The probability of a Florida hit is still low, but not out of the question, with some recent model runs suggesting a more northeastward course. We will watch that closely for you in the coming days.
In the unlikely event Rina were to get pulled northward toward the United States, the odds are that it would be coupled with a midlatitude weather system strong enough to seriously damage its tropical characteristics and irreversibly weaken the circulation.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RINA...AND WILL PROVIDE DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE SHORTLY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
...RINA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 84.3W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
CANCUN, Mexico | Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:50pm EDT
(Reuters) - Hurricane Rina closed in on Mexico's Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, threatening beach resorts like Cancun with heavy rain and dangerous waves but steering clear of oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico.
The hurricane largely avoided the coffee and sugar producing nations of Central America, which are still recovering from weeks of heavy rains that destroyed roads to farms and ruined some crops.
Rina, now a Category Two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale packing winds of 105 mph, is expected to strengthen even further to become a major hurricane.
Authorities in the city of Cancun were preparing 50 shelters ahead of the storm, which is expected to make landfall on Thursday morning.
Some worried residents cleared out store shelves of emergency supplies like water and canned tuna in case businesses decide to shut down.
The storm could slam into other tourist hubs like Playa del Carmen and the island of Cozumel, popular with scuba divers and cruise ships on the Yucatan Peninsula, and will also graze the small Central American nation of Belize.
Belize issued a tropical storm watch along its coastline north of Belize City.
Authorities also issued a hurricane watch for the east coast of the peninsula from north of Punta Gruesa to Cancun, and a storm warning from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa.
Rina, the sixth hurricane in the Atlantic this year, was located 280 miles east southeast of Chetumal, Mexico on Tuesday afternoon.
"Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours," the Miami-based hurricane center said. "And Rina is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight."
Major hurricanes are Category 3 or higher. They reach that level when sustained winds hit 111 miles per hour.
The hurricane could dump 8 to 16 inches of rain over the eastern Yucatan peninsula from Wednesday morning, "making outside preparations difficult or dangerous," the center said.
A huge storm surge is also possible, raising the tide level as much as 7 feet above normal levels along the coast.
Hurricane Rina is now a strong category 2, and is slowly moving west-northwest toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Rina is packing winds of 110 mph and is crawling west at a 3 mph. Cancun radar shows some showers approaching the peninsula. Since this morning, satellite imagery has shown Rina becoming slightly more organized, and outflow has increased on all sides of the hurricane. Rina's eye appeared this afternoon, as well, though clouds continue to obscure it most of the time. Recent satellite images suggest thunderstorm activity is increasing around the eye (Figure 1). At 2pm EDT, wind shear was low (5-10 knots) near the cyclone, which is likely aiding it to intensify, but shear expected to increase over the next couple of days. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission reported maximum surface winds of 108 mph north of the eye using the SMFR surface wind instrument, an observation that was not flagged for poor data quality. If the current satellite imagery and organization of the hurricane is indicative, Rina will probably reach major hurricane status tonight or early tomorrow. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on the way to Rina this evening, and a NOAA-9 Gulfstream is also currently investigating the hurricane and sending back dropsonde information, which will be valuable for model forecasts.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Rina taken around 12:45pm EDT on October 25. Image source: NOAA.
Forecast for Hurricane Rina The forecast for Rina hasn't changed much since this morning. Some intensification is expected over the next 12 hours, though its slow speed could act to decrease sea surface temperatures around the hurricane, and thus decrease the amount of fuel available for further intensification. This afternoon's computer model runs continue to be somewhat divided on the likely track for the hurricane, although they seem to be coming into agreement that Rina will struggle to maintain its intensity after the land interaction with the Yucatan, as well as the high shear it will encounter in the coming days. The GFS continues to forecast that Rina will remain intact after a brief brush with the Yucatan before turning northeast and heading toward southern Florida. The HWRF model is also predicting a similar outcome. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is sticking to its forecast that Rina will lose organization once it reaches the Peninsula, and instead providing a heavy rain event for Florida in conjunction with the trough of low pressure that is expected to move through later this week.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to continue to move to the west-northwest over the next 12 hours before turning to the north toward the tip of the Yucatan. This initial forecast is in agreement with the GFS and HWRF tracks, though beyond Thursday, the Center is forecasting Rina to decrease in intensity and make a hard right turn toward the Florida Straits. Regardless, people in Belize and especially the Yucatan Peninsula should be prepared for major hurricane conditions, including a storm surge up to 7 feet above normal tide conditions, and rainfall up to 16 inches.
Hurricane Rina is a Category 2 Hurricane located at 17.4° N, 84.3° W with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, gusting to 130 mph
Hurricane Rina is expected to continue to increase in size and strength prior to nearing Cancun and Cozumel, Mexico, later this week.
Rina continues to gradually strengthen over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is still a category 2 hurricane, but its 110 mph winds are just below category 3 strength. Upper level winds will remain favorable for the next day or two as the storm slowly tracks toward the Yucatan Peninsula, so further strengthening remains likely and Rina will likely be a category 3 storm when it is in the vicinity of Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday.
The forecast for Rina's track and strength becomes much more challenging after Thursday. The eventual path that the hurricane will take depends on several different variables. The first factor to consider is how much strength that Rina will lose while interacting with land near the Yucatan Peninsula. Should Rina maintain most of its strength through Thursday night, it will likely be steered more by upper level west-southwesterly winds that will be found over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. This would increase the threat to Florida. A weaker storm would be more likely to wander closer to Cuba through Friday. Another factor that impacts the forecast will be the strength of those upper level southwesterly winds. These winds may cause shear that would weaken Rina if they are strong enough. Again, the more strength that Rina can hold on to, the farther north Rina will track. Another item to consider will be the strength of an upper level trough and associated surface front that will cross the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern states later this week. The stronger this trough is later this week, the farther north Rina will track. Considering all these variables, AccuWeather believes that Rina will end up far enough north to have some impact on the weather in the Florida Keys and possibly a part of South Florida Friday or Saturday.
Residents of and those with interests in southern Florida, The Bahamas and Cuba should all closely monitor the progress of Rina over the coming days. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, storm preparations should be well under way. Those in Belize and on the islands of Honduras should be prepared for tropical storm conditions as the outer bands of Rina will affect those areas.
There is another area to watch for a new development over the next few days. A tropical wave is crossing the eastern Caribbean with the wave axis along 68 west south of 17 north, slowly edging westward. There is a large but spotty and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms with this wave over the central and eastern part of the Caribbean. Upper level winds in this area are marginally favorable for development, though there is some northerly shear along the wave axis south of Puerto Rico. Waters are very warm over the Caribbean Sea ahead of this wave. The odds of further development over the next day or so are long, but there is a decent chance that this develops further toward the end of the week.
One other tropical wave over the open Atlantic along 40 west south of 20 north is causing some showers and thunderstorms, but upper level winds in this area are hostile to further development. It is very slowly crawling westward. Should this wave end up in the Caribbean Sea in several days, conditions could be more favorable there.
WASHINGTON - The United States urged its nationals on Tuesday to consider leaving Mexico as Hurricane Rina bore down on tourist resorts on the Yucatan peninsula like Cancun, Cozumel and Playa del Carmen.
"The storm is expected to strengthen further before it makes landfall, most likely early on Thursday, October 27 somewhere between Cancun and Tulum in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo," the State Department travel warning said.
Already packing 110-mile (175-kilometer) per hour winds, Rina was forecast to become a major category three storm by early Wednesday before crashing into the Mexican coast near the sprawling resort city of Cancun on Thursday.
A hurricane watch was already in effect from Cabo Grueso north to Cancun, including the tourist areas of Tulum, Cozumel, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cancun.
Here is as up to date info as there is, courtesy of the last HH flight:
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 23:13Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011 Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 5 Observation Number: 08 A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 22:48Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°26'N 84°28'W (17.4333N 84.4667W) B. Center Fix Location: 245 miles (395 km) to the E (91°) from Belize City, Belize. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,830m (9,285ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 61° at 103kts (From the ENE at ~ 118.5mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (342°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,030m (9,941ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 22:39Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 100kts (~ 115.1mph) in the southeast quadrant at 22:45Z
A look at the weather satellite shows Hurricane Rina stalled on the same longitude, but proceeding toward Honduras and the Cape and Bay Islands area. Swan Island is taking a licking.
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
...RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT...
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE THE COAST OF YUCATAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RINA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
At 3:00pm the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.4 N, Latitude and 84.3 W, Longitude or about 258 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west northwest at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. TS force winds extends out to 140 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 30 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become to major Hurricane within the next 24 hours.
NEMO will suspend evacuation operations from the Caye's with effect of 5:00 p.m today. The last set of evacuation boats will leave from San Pedro and Caye Caulker at 5:00 pm today.
NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. NEMO urges the public to pay keen attention, listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service. Rina is likely to become a powerful Hurricane. Stay alert! Stay tune! Take the necessary actions!
All eyes are on Hurricane Rina. The system went from a Tropical Disturbance to a Hurricane in less than twenty four hours. And forecasters believe that the season's sixth hurricane is destined to be a major storm perhaps as strong as a category three hurricane. A short while ago we spoke with National Emergency Coordinator Noreen Fairweather for the latest update on the Hurricane watch on Hurricane Rina.
Noreen Fairweather - NEMO National Coordinator "The NEMO National Executive met this afternoon and subsequent to that we issued this pubic advisory in terms of the status of where we are with Hurricane Rina. At three o'clock NEMO declared phase two red one which is a Hurricane watch from Belize City north to the Belize Mexican border. Water taxi operations will be suspended tomorrow due to the possible evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker and the public is advised to take note that this will be affecting their travel plans to and from the islands. School will be closed for San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow; the UB Gym will be used as a shelter for the people that are being evacuated from San Pedro and UB Scarlet Macaw building will be used as a shelter for the Caye Caulker people that are evacuating, these are the designated shelters as published in our national shelter list for evacuations. The operations coming out of the Cayes, in San Pedro the NEMO Coordinator will be overseeing those operations and out of Caye Caulker the Belize Coast Guard will be overseeing the operations out of Caye Caulker. As a result of all these movements, in the North part of the county, bus runs in the north will be impacted by some of the runs that are running in that area so folks using the public transportation in those areas need to be cognizant of that and their movements will be interrupted in terms of the scheduling and so on. We are asking the public to please take note that the evacuation of the islands will be affecting their travel plans, I know that people need to get to and from work and will be reporting to work tomorrow. NEMO would like to advise the general public to remain on full alert as we continue to monitor Hurricane Rina. We also want to make another announcement as relates to public officers, the Ministry of Public Service has issued a release and they are requesting that public officers who have been assigned shelter management duties in the Belmopan area to report to the Shoman Resource Management representative and that is at the City of Belmopan emergency operating center and that is located at City Hall on Trinity Boulevard and they are being asked to report at six a.m. tomorrow morning so that's the shelter managers for the Belmopan area are being asked to report to the City of Belmopan EOC at six a.m. where they will be assigned their specific duties at that location. All other public officers are asked to keep abreast of the NEMO advisories and to remain on standby in the event that shelters are required to be opened in other parts of the country. More than likely some of that will be happening on Wednesday as we seek to evacuate the coastal communities running from Belize City area that has the advisory to the north those communities such as Sarteneja, Chunox, Shipstern, Bomba, Santa Ana and that entire area in the northern of the country so we are asking public officers to be alert. Persons have been issued their advisories as to what areas they would be assigned duties so once that announcement comes out they are asked to report to the nearest human resource management representative at the EOC that has been designated for them in that particular city or town. Public officers are also reminded that if they need to take shelter in a district, town or city they should report to the EOC in that area so if you live in area where you yourself will be sheltering, you report to the EOC in that area. The Ministry of Public Service is asking that we share those reminders with officers at this time. Generally we ask the public to remain on full alert and listen to the official advisories that will be issued by NEMO and the national Met Service."
The San Pedro NEMO Emergency Committee is in full swing and held a second meeting this morning at 8am to make sure everyone was on the same page. The San Pedro Sun caught up with Ms. Jeromey Timrose, District Emergency Co-ordinator for NEMO San Pedro/ Caye Caulker who updated us on the progress of the evacuation process.
According to Ms. Timrose, evacuation started as early as 6am this morning and up to 10:40 this morning, over 640 individuals had been evacuated from both islands. She commends all the cooperation from individuals evacuating as well as businesses providing the evacuation service. The general public is advised that while the weather is sunny and it may be easy to become unconcerned, to stay vigilant in monitoring the weather. "We have to continue to monitor the weather and take all the necessary precautions to save lives," she stated.
Click here to read the rest of the article and see more photos in the San Pedro Sun!
Close up view on the track of Hurricane Rina, 6:45pm
Click photo for larger version
Four aircraft recon missions per day, alternating between Air Force and NOAA hurricane hunter planes, are planned for the next few days, as long as the system is over water
confused about that last graphic Marty, as it seems that it puts the current position of the storm more north than NOAA/HH is putting it? Or it that the forecasted track?
thats the edge of the forecasted "cone", the part that comes closest to the island. the yellow line at the bottom is the edge of the cone zone, not the track. the actual track dead center is not on this map
Here's the whole image. i just took the part of it closest to the island, and blew it up big.
At 6:00pm the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.5 N, Latitude and 84.5 W, Longitude or about 244 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Tropical Storm force winds extends out to 140 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 30 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become a major Hurricane within the next 24 hours.
With effect from 5:00 p.m today, NEMO suspended evacuation operations from the Cayes.
Boat owners are urgently advised to move their vessels to safe harbor. All vessels must remain in port. NEMO advises the general public not to go to sea.
Coastal evacuation is being planned for 5:00 am tomorrow morning for Orange Walk and Corozal Districts. It is very likely that public transportation for Central and Northern Belize will be disrupted tomorrow to facilitate the possible evacuation of Belize City. NEMO will confirm this decision at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. In regards to this planned evacuation NEMO urges everyone to listen to their radio and television throughout the night.
Those persons who are capable of leaving on their own are advised to voluntarily evacuate Belize City, rural areas in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts. Communities of concern are Belize City, Ladyville northwards to Sand Hill; Maskal; Bomba; Progresso; Copper Bank; Chunox up to Sarteneja. Evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker resumes in the morning at 6:00am if sea conditions permit.
Tomorrow school will be suspended for the entire Cayo, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including Belize City. School staff and management must report to school to prepare their schools. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters.
It is anticipated that Phase III-Red 2 will be declared at 6:00 .a.m. tomorrow morning.
NEMO continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. STAY ALERT! STAY TUNE! TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS AS ADVISED!
...Rina could become a major hurricane at any time...
The eye became obscured on conventional satellite imagery...and consequently T-numbers from SAB and TAFB have decreased a little bit. However...latest microwave data show a distinct eye feature which is better defined than in earlier data. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane investigating the hurricane measured a lower minimum pressure of 966 mb...but neither SFMR or flight-level winds indicate that Rina is stronger than a few hours ago. The initial intensity is kept at 95 knots in this advisory. Given the favorable low-shear environment and the very high oceanic heat content prevailing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Rina could become a major hurricane at any time before reaching eastern Yucatan. Thereafter...Rina will find a very hostile environment of strong shear over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico which most likely will weaken the cyclone significantly.
Rina has been drifting westward about 3 knots...trapped south of a strong subtropical high pressure ridge. But soon...the high will shift eastward...and the hurricane should begin to move...still very slowly...toward the northwest and north around the periphery of the ridge. The cyclone is forecast to be over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and be very near northeastern Yucatan in 48 hours. There is relatively high confidence in this portion of the forecast since most of the guidance is quite consistent with this motion. Beyond 48 hours...as Rina begins to interact with the mid-latitude westerly flow...the forecast becomes highly uncertain since the model spread increases considerably. By then...Rina either recurves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or meanders near Yucatan as a shallow cyclone steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast calls for recurvature and brings a weakening Rina near the north coast of western Cuba. This is consistent with the previous NHC forecast.
hmmmmm.... still going annoyingly pretty much due west for the last 12 hours:
789. Skyepony 8:57 AM GMT on October 26, 2011 Last fix AF304 is headed home..
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 08:41Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304) Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011 Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 6 Observation Number: 20 A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 7:57:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°31'N 85°08'W (17.5167N 85.1333W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 201 miles (324 km) to the E (90°) from Belize City, Belize. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,846m (9,337ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the S (182°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 273° at 88kts (From the W at ~ 101.3mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the S (183°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the south M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 300° to 120° (WNW to ESE) M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 22 nautical miles M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical miles N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:04:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) in the north quadrant at 8:01:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... OUTBOUND SURFACE SFMR WIND 98 KTS IN NORTH QUADRANT
Rina's maximum sustained winds remained steady at about 110 mph early Wednesday, said the National Hurricane Center in Miami, making it a Category 2 storm. Forecasters predict it will strengthen as it nears the Mexican coast Wednesday night before rolling over the island of Cozumel, a popular dive spot and cruise-ship port, then along the coast to Cancun.
Hurricane Rina has started to make the west north west movement as was anticipated earlier. The Hurricane is still bordering on becoming a MAJOR hurricane. It is currently located 198 miles east of Belize City. Maximum sustained winds remain at 110 miles per hour, but it has picked up forward speed, now traveling at 5 miles per hour.
Listening to LOVE FM..Noreen Fairweather just gave update..[1] cayes are to continue evacuating this morning as expected to recieve cat 2 hurricane force winds [2] belize city is expected to receive tropical storm force winds - shelters will open @12:00 midday [3] national transportation system running as usual [4] cayo, belize, orange walk to corozal -schools are closed from pre-school to UB. ..
Category 2 Rina Continues to Churn Westward
Accuweather
Oct 25, 2011 5:10 PM
Hurricane Rina: Cancun in Danger, Florida on Alert
Hurricane Rina is a Category 2 Hurricane located at 17.6° N, 85.3° W with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, gusting to 130 mph
Powerful Hurricane Rina is on a collision course with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula then could impact the Florida Peninsula.
Rina has maintained Category 2 status this morning with winds at 110 mph. This puts the storm just below Category 3 strength and is expected to be upgraded later today. Upper-level winds will remain favorable for the next day or two as the storm slowly tracks toward the Yucatan Peninsula, so further strengthening remains likely and Rina will likely be a Category 3 storm when it is in the vicinity of Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday.
The forecast for Rina's track and strength becomes much more challenging after Thursday. The eventual path that the hurricane will take depends on several different variables. The first factor to consider is how much strength Rina will lose while interacting with land near the Yucatan Peninsula. Should Rina maintain most of its strength through Thursday night, it will likely be steered more by upper-level west-southwesterly winds that will be found over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. This would increase the threat to Florida. A weaker storm would be more likely to wander closer to Cuba through Friday. Another factor that impacts the forecast will be the strength of those upper-level southwesterly winds. These winds may cause shear that would weaken Rina if they are strong enough. Again, the more strength that Rina can hold on to, the farther north Rina will track. Another item to consider will be the strength of an upper-level trough and associated surface front that will cross the Gulf of Mexico and Southeastern states later this week. The stronger this trough is later this week, the farther north Rina will track. Considering all these variables, AccuWeather believes that Rina will end up far enough north to have some impact on the weather in the Florida Keys and possibly a part of South Florida on Friday or Saturday.
Residents of and those with interests in South Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba should all closely monitor the progress of Rina over the coming days. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, storm preparations should be well under way. Those in Belize and on the islands of Honduras should be prepared for tropical storm conditions as the outer bands of Rina will affect those areas.
There is another area to watch for a new development over the next few days. A tropical wave is crossing the eastern Caribbean with the wave axis along 68 west, south of 17 north, slowly edging westward. There is a large but spotty and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms with this wave over the central and eastern part of the Caribbean. Upper-level winds in this area are marginally favorable for development, though there is some northerly shear along the wave axis south of Puerto Rico. Waters are very warm over the Caribbean Sea ahead of this wave. The odds of further development over the next day or so are long, but there is a decent chance that this develops further toward the end of the week.
One other tropical wave over the open Atlantic along 40 west, south of 20 north is causing some showers and thunderstorms, but upper-level winds in this area are hostile to further development. It is very slowly crawling westward. Should this wave end up in the Caribbean Sea in several days, conditions could be more favorable there.
Rina Is A Borderline Category 2/Category 3 Hurricane; Hurricane Warnings Remain In Effect For The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula, Including Cancun & Cozumel
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
October 26, 2011, 6:28 am
Hurricane Rina:
Satellite imagery and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Rina is holding its own this morning. Reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak flight level wind of 120 mph and surface winds from dropsondes of 112 mph in the eastern eyewall. I would argue that Rina is a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane this morning rather than a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane; but, who's arguing a mere 5 mph? Satellite imagery showed a well defined outflow pattern associated with the hurricane and wind shear values from the CIMSS products indicate that there is about 20 knots of shear right over the core of the hurricane with 30 to 40 knots of shear waiting for Rina as it approaches Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday. Additionally, it appears that Rina will continue to track over some very warm ocean waters today before the ocean heat content decreases tonight into Thursday.
So, I think we will see Rina will peak in its intensity today to 120 or at most 125 mph. From there, I expect Rina to weaken tonight into Thursday and the hurricane should still be a formidable 115 mph Category 3 hurricane when it impacts Cozumel starting late tonight and continuing through all of Thursday and Cancun during Thursday and into Thursday night. By Friday into Saturday, I think we will see Rina turn to the northeast and continue to weaken, however, notice that there is an area of higher ocean heat content in the southern Gulf of Mexico that Rina could track over during Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Now, at that time, the wind shear over Rina will be southwesterly at 40 to 60 mph. So, further weakening is likely and I am going with the GFDL model's idea of a track that takes Rina right across south Florida. What is interesting is that the GFDL model forecasts some strengthening of the hurricane after it tracks between the Yucatan Peninsula and south Florida on Friday; the reason for this is that area of higher ocean heat content I just talked about.
As I just mentioned I do think we will see a track that is very similar to the track that Wilma took, except Rina should be weaker when it crosses south Florida late Friday night into Saturday morning. My thinking is that Rina will track from near Cape Romano in southern Collier County east-northeastward to Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale in extreme southern Palm Beach and northern Broward County. As for intensity when it crosses south Florida, my thinking is an upper end tropical storm or the very most a minimal Category 1 hurricane. The strongest winds and worst weather would be on the right side of the storm and much of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties as well as much of the Florida Keys may receive tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall from Friday night into much of Saturday.
Ok, back to the Yucatan Peninsula, tropical storm force winds are expected to reach Cozumel this evening with hurricane force winds expected to arrive in Cozumel around dawn Thursday morning and then continue through much of the day Thursday. The worst part of the hurricane which may have Category 3 strength winds is expected in Cozumel from late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. The winds are then expected to decrease to below hurricane force by late Thursday afternoon and then below tropical storm force right around midnight Thursday night.
As for Cancun, tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive early Thursday morning with hurricane force winds expected by mid-afternoon Thursday. Hurricane force winds will then continue into Thursday night with the worst part of the hurricane which may have 100 to 110 mph winds from late Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening. The winds are then expected to decrease to below hurricane force just before midnight Thursday night and then below tropical storm force during the mid and late morning hours of Friday.
Additionally, Rina will produce total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun and also a storm surge of 6 to 7 feet along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
So, in closing, it appears that the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula which does include Cancun and Cozumel will be hit quite hard by Hurricane Rina. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for this area and if you haven't done so already, you should prepare quickly for severe hurricane conditions this morning before the weather deteriorates.
Good Morning ! I've just listened to LOVEFM and the general info is more or less like this ....... Although alarming to hear about, the evacuation of low areas of Belize City, Ladyville etc was pro-active and admittedly erring on the side of caution. Why - because Rina did not turn north at the time this turn was expected. Had Rina continued due west, Belize City could expect to be hit. Being a little below sea level that is serious - and being one year since Richard, memories are fresh. As of 6 am Rina is slowing its forward track and has made a hint of a turn north. Forecasters still expect Rina to follow a northward track, and to impact Cancun and Cozumel as a Hurricane, either CAT2 or CAT3. If weather events proceed as predicted, San Pedro will experience winds under 45 MPH, some rain and high water in the lagoon. AC evacuations were focused on those living in low-lying areas - San Mateo, San Juan, San Pedrito and DFC. That is still the case. We we're having rain now, skies are fully gray. It's very cool and the winds are from the back. I don't think anybody has boarded up. Most boats are out of the water. That's the current report --- good to pay attention, but there seems no serious risk here at the moment other than Mother Nature once again telling us that San Mateo was a bad idea.
....buuut Belize city is not below sea level, it may be at sea level or dare I say slightly above it. Where are the Dams and levies? For some reason that is commonly stated here!
Cheers, Carlos
Originally Posted by Diane Campbell
Belize City could expect to be hit. Being a little below sea level that is serious - and being one year since Richard, memories are fresh.
Walk into Town at High Tide: Hurricane Rina & Belize
Let me just start with this picture of Coconut Leo in what he is calling his "evacuation center at Wild Mango's" (they obviously hadn't opened yet for the day). He asks that you drop off beer and coconuts to make this "shelter" (which happens to be about 10 feet from the sea) more bareable. He thanks you in advance.
Rina still a Cat 2, and may have peaked in intensity
Jeff Masters
1:48 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
There is little change to Category 2 Hurricane Rina, which continues slowly west-northwest at 4 mph towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The most recent hurricane hunter mission was at 3:58 am EDT this morning, and the next aircraft is not due into the storm until this afternoon, so we'll have to rely on satellite estimates of the storm's strength until then. Recent satellite intensity estimates suggest Rina has peaked in intensity, and may have weakened slightly since the last hurricane hunter mission. The eye is no longer visible on visible satellite loops, and the storm has a distinctly lopsided appearance, which are both signs that Rina may be weakening. Recent microwave images (Figure 1) suggest that the southern portion of Rina's eyewall may have a gap in it. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the south. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, but Rina will be leaving a region of high oceanic heat content late tonight, and will not have as much high-energy fuel to sustain itself. Rina has brought sporadic heavy rain squalls to the Yucatan; Cozumel Island airport reported 9.10" of rain yesterday and another 3.25" as of 9 am EDT today. I'm not sure this is correct, since two personal weather stations on the island reported only 1 - 2" of rain over the past two days. The outer rain bands of Rina are visible on Cancun radar and the La Bajada, Cuba radar.
If Rina does make it to Category 3 strength, it would join a very short list of major hurricanes that have occurred this late in the year. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only twelve major hurricanes in Atlantic on October 26 or later. Rina is a medium-small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds that extend out 25 miles from the center. The latest estimates of Rina's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) made yesterday afternoon by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the damage potential of Rina's storm surge at 2.5 on a scale of one to six. This is a relatively low number for a Category 2 hurricane, and means that storm surge damage will be confined to a relatively small area in the right front quadrant of Rina's eyewall. For comparison, the storm surge damage potential for Hurricane Irene when it was a strong tropical storm approaching Long Island, New York on August 28, 2011 was 4.1 on a scale of 1 to 6, since Irene was a huge storm that put vast areas of the ocean into motion.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Hurricane Rina taken at 7:15 am EDT October 26, 2011. Rina appears to only have the northern half of its eyewall intact. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Forecast for Rina The hurricane hunters found that Rina had a large elliptical eye with a diameter of 23 - 34 miles with a gap in the south eyewall during their 3:58 am EDT eye penetration this morning. Rapid intensification usually requires a circular eye with no gap in it, and thus I expect only gradual intensification of Rina can occur today. Wind shear is not expected to increase to the high range until Thursday afternoon, so Rina still has a day and a half to potentially intensify. Given the storm's inability to close off its eyewall so far, I expect that a Category 3 storm is the strongest that we will see. It is more likely that Rina has peaked in strength, and will begin to weaken. On Thursday, Rina will encounter high wind shear associated with upper-level westerly winds associated with the jet stream and a trough of low pressure moving through the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, and turn Rina more to the northwest by Thursday and northeast on Friday. Cozumel Island off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula appears at the highest risk of receiving a direct hit from Rina; the 5 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave the island a 27% chance of receiving hurricane force winds, the highest chance of any land area in the forecast. If Rina hits Mexico, it would most likely be at Category 1 strength, with Category 2 strength also quite possible. NHC is giving Rina a 21% chance of being a Category 3 or stronger hurricane on Thursday afternoon, and I don't expect the storm will be a major hurricane at landfall. The chief threat from Rina is probably its rains; the hurricane is moving slowly and has the capability of dumping 8 - 16 inches of rain over the coastal Yucatan. Western Cuba is also at risk of receiving heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches.
After Rina makes its closest pass by Cozumel, it is uncertain if the storm will be strong enough to fully "feel" the steering influence of the trough, and be swept to the east-northeast into Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys. If Rina makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula and weakens significantly, the storm will likely be too weak to get caught up by the trough and will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. This is the solution of the latest runs of the ECMWF and HWRF models, with the usually reliable ECMWF model continuing to predict that Rina will dissipate over the Yucatan. However, if Rina grazes the Yucatan and remains strong through Friday, it is more likely to get caught up by the trough and drawn into the Florida Keys or Southwest Florida near Marco Island, as a weakening tropical storm. This is the solution of the latest 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. The latest 2 am EDT runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models are in-between, predicting that Rina will get very close to the Keys on Saturday, but then weaken and sink southwards towards Cuba. There is high degree of uncertainty which set of model runs will be correct, and the threat to Florida depends strongly upon how much of a blow Mexico receives from the hurricane.
Local forecasters just announced that the storm is beginning its turn to the northwest. They are optimistic that Rina will follow the forecast track north of us.
...RINA NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY...AND A FASTER WEAKENING MAY OCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF RINA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
At 6:00am the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.6 N, Latitude and 85.3 W, Longitude or about 198 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west at 4 mph with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Tropical Storm force winds extends out to 115 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 25 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become a major Hurricane within the next 24 hours. NEMO declares Phase III-Red 2 with effect 6:00 a.m. today.
Evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker resumes this morning at 6:00 a.m. All vessels must remain in port. NEMO advises the general public not to go to sea.
NEMO assisted evacuation will be conducted for the Belize, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts.
Communities of concern in Corozal District that will be evacuated are: � Buena Vista will go to the CCC � Caledonia will go to the Cornerstone Presbyterian High School � Chunox will go to the CZL Town-CCC � Consejo will go to the CZL Town-CCC � Copper Bank will go to the Orange Walk - Multipurpose Bldg � Fireburn will go to the Orange Walk-Multipurpose Bldg � Progresso will go to the Orange Walk-Multipurpose Bldg � Ranchito will go to the CZL Town CCC � San Victor will go to the San Narciso RC School � Sarteneja will go to the Saint Viator High School & Orange Walk-Multipurpose Bldg � Yo Chen will go to the Cristo Rey Nazarene Church Bldg
Communities of concern in Orange Walk District that will be evacuated are: � San Lorenzo will go to the Trial Farm Roman Catholic Primary School
Communities of concern in Belize District that will be evacuated are: � Bomba will go to the Maskall Community Centre � Boston will go to the King's College Evangelical High School � Davis and Grace Bank will go to the Orange Walk-San Francisco RC School � Western Paradise will go to the Belmopan-Garden City Primary School � Free Town Sibun will go to the Belmopan - UB Jabiru Bldg � Lords Bank will go to the La Immaculada Bldg 3, Orange Walk � Rhaburn Bridge will go to the Orange Walk, Carmelita Government School � St. Paul's Bank will go to the Belmopan-Garden City Primary School � Willows Bank will go to the Methodist Church & Belmopan-Garden City Primary School � Scotland Halfmoon will go to Belmopan Anglican Primary School & New Mennonite Church
There will be no evacuation of Belize City instead Shelters will be open as follows in Belize City: � Mesoptamia will go to the Grace Primary & Salvation Army � Freetown will go to the All Saints Pallotti � Caribbean Shores will go to the Trinity Methodist � Albert will go to the St. Ignatius Primary School (new bldg) � Lake I will go to the St. Martin De Porres � Port Loyola will go to the St. Johns Vianney � Queen Square will go to the Queen Square Primary � Fort George will go to the Pallotti High School � Collet will go to the Gwen Liz. � Pickstock (South) will go to the St. Martin de Porres � Pickstock (North) will go to the Holy Redeemer
Public transportation is expected to operate its normal schedule. The public will be notified of any intended disruption
Schools have been suspended for the entire Cayo District, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including Belize District. School staff and management must report to school to prepare their schools. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters in Orange Walk, Corozal, Belize City and Belmopan. Shelters are expected to be open this afternoon.
NEMO continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. STAY ALERT! STAY TUNE! TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS AS ADVISED!
If you plan to leave the island by boat the water taxis are stating that boat service to the mainland may be suspended as early as 10:30am.
Alcohol sales have been suspended.
Richies store and Casa Pan dulce are open for business for now.
Captain Shark's boat yard is full and cannot take any more boats.
DFC, San Pablo, San Mateo and San Pedrito residents should seek higher ground now.
We will expect to have high seas and tides for the next 24 hours.
Richie's Supermarket FOR THOSE STAYING ON THE ISLAND WE AT RICHIE'S WILL BE OPEN ALL DAY UNTIL THE WEATHER PERMITS. WE HAVE FOOD SUPPLIES, FLASH LIGHTS, BATTERIES, RAIN COAT AND MUCH MORE. MAKE RICHIE'S YOUR ONE STOP. TAKE ADVANTAGE BEFORE THE ITEMS ARE SOLD OUT.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Schools have been suspended for the entire Cayo District, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including Belize District. School staff and management must report to school to prepare their schools. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters in Orange Walk, Corozal, Belize City and Belmopan. Shelters are expected to open this afternoon.
Tropic says they are continuing to fly to schedule
i like the looks of this northern jag from the most recent data... heck thats nearly NNW!!! about a 50 degree angle to the north from previous western track of early this morning.
RINA HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE EYE IS NOT APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE RADARS AT BELIZE CITY AND ON THE TRMM SATELLITE SUGGEST THE EYEWALL HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION. WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN -80C...THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO REACH THE STORM WILL FIND RINA HAS WEAKENED.
THE RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 290/4.
SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A FASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
Hurricane Rina is no longer forecast to become a Major Hurricane. Projections are for Rina to start weakening today. The latest available data shows Hurricane Rina carrying maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, which is just one mile per hour shy of a Category Three. The hurricane is now 180 miles East North East of Belize City, which technically is above Belize City on the latitude scale.
Hurricane RINA Update Statement Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive UPDATE
000 WTNT63 KNHC 261644 TCUAT3
HURRICANE RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1145 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RINA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED...
RECENT REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT...1730 UTC...IN PLACE OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
SUMMARY OF 1145 AM CDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 85.7W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Last edited by NVJims; 10/26/1111:53 AM. Reason: unformatted data
Belize Electricity Limited (BEL) continues to monitor Hurricane Rina and advises that, in the event there is loss of power supply related to the hurricane, the company will dispatch work crews to the field as soon as it is safe to do so.
The company encourages customers to continue monitoring the hurricane and pay keen attention to safety tips being aired on radio stations.
Customers are also advised that branch offices in Corozal and San Pedro are closed and therefore customers should call BEL's toll free number 0-800-235-2273 or 0-800-BEL-CARE to report any customer service concerns.
Mid-morning, Ambergris Caye, 5 Miles North of San Pedro Town - Eastern coast.
Rita is due-East of were we sit - and is about 150 miles away.
The sea has a lot of power under it with swells producing sets of waves that we usually don't have inside the reef. Still, it's not as hectic as a good March blow.
We still have a lot of birds singing and I trust their instincts - we're fine here.
Prayers and positive thoughts go out to our brothers and sisters in Mexico to the North.
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RINA IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...RINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RINA REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 982 MB... YEAH! WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS THAT...AT THE MOST...SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT. THUS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE ARE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS WIND RADII FORECAST AND NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
Right now, just north of the bridge, the tide is almost to the top of the sea wall and occasional small waves are coming over the top. Hardly any wind and no rain since early morning. I'm sure this will change. LOL
Belize City is overcast, slight drizzles, light light breeze, people going about their biz. Birds are singing here too, dog outside and air temp is cool.
The sun is now out and the sea has turned from steely gray to turquoise again. The tide is high, but I will be surprised if things get much worse from what we've already seen, based on all the forecasts I am reading. Rina is a small storm and weakening.
Hurricane Rina Weakens to Category 1 Storm on Path to Yucatan
Hurricane Rina weakened to a Category 1 storm as it moved toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including the resorts of Cancun and Cozumel.
The system's maximum sustained winds dropped to 85 miles (137 kilometers) per hour and Rina is still expected to be a hurricane when it strikes the coast tomorrow, according to a special advisory issued by the U.S. National Hurricane Center advisory at 1:30 p.m. New York time.
Rina is weakening in part because it is pulling in dry air from over the Yucatan and from another pocket over the ocean, said Paul Walker, expert senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.
Weather patterns over the U.S. will help steer the storm away from the Bay of Campeche and the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm's current track has it bending to the east and nearing the western tip of Cuba, then weakening to a tropical storm.
It is possible that Rina will have been torn apart by wind shear and weakened by colder water before that happens.
Hurricane Rina is a Category 1 Hurricane located at 18.0° N, 85.7° W with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 100 mph
Although Hurricane Rina has weakened, it remains on a collision course with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
Rina has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane this afternoon with winds at 85 mph. Rina is much less organized than yesterday as the hurricane has entrained some dry air from the north. This intrusion of dry air has resulted in an erosion of the eye wall. There is also about 15-20 knots of southerly shear impeding the outflow.
Rina will make landfall along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday. Heavy rain from Rina will result in flooding and mudslides across the Yucatan Peninsula today through Thursday. Winds will increase across the coast of the Yucatan today, and hurricane-force gusts are possible Thursday which may result in damage and power outages.
After Thursday, Rina will continue to battle dry air intrusion along with increasing southerly shear. This along with Rina's interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 36 hours will result in further weakening. An upper-level trough building over the eastern United States late in the week and weekend will help to steer Rina in a more eastward fashion after its interaction with the Yucatan tomorrow. This upper-level trough over the eastern United States will also produce more wind shear over Rina resulting in further weakening and Rina may weaken to tropical storm status by Friday over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Most computer models then turn what is left of Rina to the southeast over the weekend around the vicinity of western Cuba. While there may be an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday across the Florida Keys and far southern Florida, AccuWeather believes that Rina will be in a weakened state by this time as it makes a turn to the southeast toward Cuba. Although Rina is expected to weaken, heavy rain may bring flooding to western parts of Cuba later Friday into the weekend.
Hurricane Hunter flight in 20 minutes ago.... flight path on the right
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 20:23Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304) Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011 Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 17 A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 20:05:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°08'N 85°54'W (18.1333N 85.9W) B. Center Fix Location: 157 miles (252 km) to the ENE (74°) from Belize City, Belize. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,937m (9,636ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the W (279°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 76kts (From the NNE at ~ 87.5mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WNW (282°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Wind Outbound: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:10:40Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:10:40Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... EYE DROP REPORTED SLP OF 981MB AND 24KT SFC WIND
The Lockheed WC-130J aircraft is a venerable workhorse. It flies directly into the hurricane, typically penetrating the hurricane's eye several times per mission at altitudes between 500 feet (150 m) and 10,000 feet (3,000 m). The 53rd WRS Hurricane Hunters operate ten WC-130J aircraft for weather reconnaissance.
The Lockheed WP-3D Orion aircraft flown by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters are heavily instrumented flying laboratories specifically modified to take atmospheric and radar measurements within tropical cyclones and winter storms.
The NOAA G-IV Gulfstream high altitude jet conducts hurricane surveillance flying upwards of 4,000 miles (6,400 km) each flight to document upper and lower level winds that affect the movement of tropical cyclones. The hurricane models (computer models predicting hurricane tracks and intensity) mainly utilize NOAA G-IV dropwindsonde data that is collected both day and night in storms affecting the United States.
At 12:00midday the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 18.1 N, Latitude and 85.8 W, Longitude or about 164 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west north west at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds have decreased from 110 to 85 mph. Tropical Storm force winds extends out to 115 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 25 miles from the centre. Rina weakened significantly when it moved over cool waters. Rina now poses a lesser threat to Belize.
Shelter occupation in the Orange Walk & Belize District including Belize City is currently suspended. Corozal District remains the only area of concern due to the proximity of the Hurricane. Rina is approximately 170 mph east south east of Corozal Town. In Belmopan all evacuees will be transported back to San Pedro tomorrow. Evacuation from the Cayes has ceased.
Classes will resume tomorrow.
NEMO continues to monitor Hurricane Rina as it begins to move away from Belize.
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
...RINA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 85.9W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF RINA NEARS THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
Hurricane Rina weakens as it slides toward the Yucatan
Jeff Masters
9:12 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Hurricane Rina has unraveled a bit since yesterday afternoon, but still packs category 1 winds of 85 mph. Rina is moving steadily to the northwest at 6 mph, and the center of the hurricane is expected to reach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission, which ended at 4:30pm EDT, found maximum surface winds around 85 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 976mb. Rina is battling some moderate wind shear (at least 10-15 knots) this afternoon, which is helping to break down the upper-level outflow of the hurricane, which is now only present on the northeast side of the cyclone. The most recent integrated kinetic energy analysis of the hurricane (Figure 1) illustrates Rina's disorganization, with the strongest winds (in yellow) located on the northeast side. The southern end of the storm looks rather bare, likely due to moderately strong southerly wind shear, which is acting to tear that side of the hurricane apart. The destructive potential rating, which is estimated by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, has is now 1.5 for wind and 2.0 for storm surge and waves on a 0 to 6 scale.
Despite its ragged appearance and obvious weakening, Hurricane Rina is still expected to bring heavy rain and strong wind gusts to the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind speed on Cozumel had been steadily increasing since this morning, though have leveled off in the past few hours. Wind speed will increase again soon as Rina moves closer to the island. This station has also reported 3.25 inches of rain so far, but like Jeff said in this morning's blog, surrounding personal weather stations have only reported up to an inch of rain. Cancun's radar shows Rina's outer bands moving over the peninsula, and strong rain was reported in the city earlier this afternoon. A Yucatan Basin buoy is reporting wind speeds close to 30 mph, and waves around 8 feet so far. Having seen some photos of the Cancun beaches, wave height has increased there, as well, although aren't near 8 feet quite yet.
Figure 1. Hurricane Rina's wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Rina taken at 4:31pm EDT.
Forecast for Hurricane Rina The forecast for Rina remains mostly in line with earlier forecasts, although the intensity has been decreased significantly and the track through Friday has shifted slightly to the east. Rina will continue to move north-northwest toward Cozumel over the next 24 hours, likely making landfall Thursday afternoon and evening. Beyond this, the models have changed their tune since yesterday. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF are all forecasting Rina to weaken significantly after coming in contact with the Yucatan Peninsula, but instead of a forecast track toward southern Florida, they are now calling for Rina to linger in the Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure and disturbed weather until the middle of next week, when it finally is swept out by a trough. The official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center have conveyed this possibility well in the 4 and 5 day track forecasts so far. This afternoon, they're calling for Rina to weaken to a tropical storm after landfall, at which point it will begin its clockwise turn back into the Caribbean while weakening further to a depression. The forecast surge has decreased to 2 to 4 feet, likely due to both the weakening of the hurricane and its relatively small wind radius, and heavy rain and flooding are still a concern for the Yucatan and Cozumel.
Well SP, you know bud, I'd get that comment if we were in the belly of the beast and it was going to get very very bad; but when you read the last few meteorologists discussion & updates maybe you'll understand why my mood was lifted when I saw that that big ole wind shear gap in the south storm wall.
What they had been forecasting (and we should all be hoping for) "seems" to be coming true and that's reason to hope for a lot of people; worth a smile in my book.
NEMO has declared the "All Clear" for the country of Belize with effect from 4:00 p.m. today.
Classes will resume tomorrow.
A Bus will depart Belmopan UB Gymnasium at 7:00, 8:00 and 9:00 a.m. for all evacuees to be transported back to San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow. Boats will leave Brown Sugar between 8:30 & 12:00 midday.
NEMO thanks all private sector and public sector personnel who assisted and supported the people of Belize in our time of threat for Hurricane Rina.
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 700 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
...EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WITHIN THE SCOPE OF BELIZE RADAR... (see image above)
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 86.2W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICAN BORDER.
------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF RINA REACHES THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING RINA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
ironically, now that the "all clear" has sounded, the waves out front are probably the biggest they've been all day. Not rip out your docks big, but they'll certainly be a bit less beach in places come sun up (and more in others I suppose.) I'd say we missed "tear up the docks" weather by about 50 miles.
I would not want to be in a boat out there right now (like the one I just saw pass by.)
The most important question after Rina The most important and many time asked question on the TV Channel from San Pedro after the "All Clear" was given:
"When will we able to buy liquor again and when will the bars be open?"
The answer: "The selling of Alcoholic Beverages will be allowed again after 5 PM"
Only after that were questions asked about evacuated people and tourists, if by plane or boat and if School will be open tomorrow.
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
...RINA HANGING IN THERE WITH 85 MPH WINDS...COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 86.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE DATA WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGES...IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...THE EYE FEATURE IS NOW QUITE DISTINCT IN VERY RECENT SSMIS DATA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WHICH JUST TRAVERSED THE HURRICANE AND OBSERVED A CIRCULAR EYE OF 15 N MI IN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A PEAK WIND OF 82 KNOTS MEASURED BY THE SFMR...MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. MORE RECENT DATA SUGGEST THAT RITA COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN RINA SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS RINA APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY HOSTILE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR...PROBABLY MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.
RINA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING RINA SLOWLY NORTHWARD VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN. THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW.
This is not exactly a post mortem, as she is still quite alive and kicking but here is what gave me such a sense of relief about AC's fate earlier today...
When I posted this earlier
Quote
That hole in Rina's backside (errrr..sorry) is a problem for any self respecting hurricane...
I was referring to the "gap" or inclusion that reflects the recent, and significant, drop in wind speeds along the south storm wall as seen in the graphic below. The data for the graph was developed from dropsonde data collected during hurricane hunter flights over the past two days.
In earlier discussions two NHC meterologists had brought up the possibilty that the 'cane would not recognise its full potential. Their predictiuon, which seems to have been realised, was that the storm's developement could be disrupted as a result of it coming into contact with "shearing" winds from a strong upper level high pressure system (ridge). That ridge had been had been dominating the Yucatan region for a week or more (remember those really consistent north winds all week?). Although the ridge was beginning to break up its upper level wind components could have an effect on Rina. Apprently those dry, warm, high speed winds aloft did indeed cut the tops off of and collapse Rina's high cold clouds on her southern flank. With that area of her upper level "thermal engine" crippled the wind speeds in the southern area of the storm became much slower than the other edges of the storm.
In order for the storm to really shift gears into a higher category those winds need to be in sync and working together. This wind speed differential precluded the 'cane from really spinning up its gyro even though it had plenty of fuel in the form of really warm water. Basically Rina pulled a hamstring just as she was hitting her stride.
Frankly I'm pretty damned impressed with the two meteorolgists who pulled all the information together and recognised this scenario as a distinct possibilty. Not to mention a big shout out to the Hurricane Hunters...
Agreed there are the main stream pro's we always need, but at local levels we need our community to kick in and pass the word on, in a professional manner. What an exceptional job they did. Without T.V. as it eliminated day before yesterday, and no radio, trusting the storm would go north, you never know, things can change as in the past.We found the messageboard our best link to what was going on
LONELY PLANET SAYS TOURIST LOVE OUR ART. BEST PRICES ON ART.
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
...RINA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
RINA HAS BECOME LESS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS DIMINISHING WITHIN A RAGGED-LOOKING CDO FEATURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND INDEED THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW BARELY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH THE PEAK SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 65 KT. SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE... AND THIS ALONG WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE WEAKENING THEN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR DAYS 1-3 AND IS THE SAME AT DAYS 4-5. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL FORECAST.
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 87.0W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
RINA IS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT ABOUT 325/5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN 36-48 HOURS...THE NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF RINA. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
Hurricane Rina is a Category 1 Hurricane located at 18.9° N, 87.0° W with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, gusting to 90 mph
Rina remains a relatively small and weakening hurricane, but still poses dangers to the Yucatan Peninsula where it will slam onshore later today.
Hurricane Rina will make landfall along northeast Yucatan coast near Cozumel later today then it will head north along the coast tonight into tomorrow morning, then slowly shift away to the northeast and east later Friday into Saturday. There will be damaging winds and flooding rains along the northeast Yucatan coast today and tonight then they should taper off later Friday. A storm surge of 2-4 feet will occur near and just north of the landfall. The latest satellite pictures show a significant disorganized area of clouds around Rina. This has caused the winds to drop to 65 knots and it will probably continue weaken to a tropical storm by midday or early afternoon. Strong west-southwest winds aloft will weaken Rina even more over the weekend as the low-level center heads toward western Cuba and the midlevel feature heads across South Florida with heavy rain.
We have been monitoring an area of convection moving across the central Caribbean. Once this feature reaches the western or southwest Caribbean, conditions may become more favorable for development.
One other tropical wave over the open Atlantic along 44 west, south of 20 north, is causing some showers and thunderstorms, but upper-level winds in this area are hostile to further development. It is very slowly crawling westward. Should this wave end up in the Caribbean Sea in several days, conditions could be more favorable there.
Rina Is Falling Apart As It Approaches The Yucatan Peninsula
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
October 27, 2011, 5:41 am
Hurricane Rina:
Rina has been extremely fickle over the past 24 hours. After weakening rapidly from a 110 mph borderline Category 2/Category 3 hurricane to a 85 mph Category 1 hurricane yesterday, it tried to make a comeback last evening, however, the latest satellite imagery and reconnaissance reports indicate that Rina is becoming very ragged and some more weakening has occurred according to reconnaissance reports. It appears that Rina is barely a hurricane this morning and some more weakening is likely as the storm encounters increasing wind shear and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula; in fact, it appears that Cancun and Cozumel probably will not even experience hurricane force winds, but tropical storm force winds are likely in both places today through tonight.
Rina is tracking northwestward at a forward speed of 6 mph this morning and it appears that since Rina is much weaker than previously expected, it will weaken rapidly this weekend and the end result will be quite similar to Hurricane Paula from last year where it weakened and dissipated near Cuba and never regenerated. It is looking more and more likely that south Florida will escape any effects from Rina, however, a frontal system crossing the Florida Peninsula will cause widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the Florida Peninsula from Friday afternoon through Friday night.
It should be mentioned that the European model performed extremely well with the forecast of Rina falling apart as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and the latest European model forecast indicates that Rina will track inland into the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula as it weakens tonight into Friday and then be shunted back to the east-southeast into the northwestern Caribbean by Saturday where it sit right into the middle part of next week. In fact, the European model is forecasting some regeneration of Rina by about Wednesday as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula once again. If this happens, then we may be tracking what is left of Rina for several more days.
Agreed there are the main stream pro's we always need, at local levels we need our community to kick in and pass the word on, in a professional manner. What an exceptional job they did. Without T.V. as it eliminated day before yesterday, and no radio, trusting the storm would go north, you never know, things can change as in the past. We found the messageboard our best link to what was going on
Hear hear Cooper Marty et al, are abfab and there is nothing like the local grapevine of useable information that a good bulletin board provides.
As far as the pros go it speaks volumes to the character of the men and women who voluntarily, with good cheer even, climb into that tiny plane and fly into the middle of something that simply by its nature "wants" to kill them. I also find it astonishing that people, through computer models, experience, and intuition can make sense of and distill the millions of data points collected at risk of life and limb that become the basis for much of the practical information provided here on the board.
there are some fantastic documentaries about the hurricane hunters. i LOVE watching them when they go thru the eyeball and hit the CLEAR BLUE SKY in the middle. takes your breath away.... it's often a bit harrowing getting thru. they have to try this path, then another path. then they fly those big planes around in a small eye. hard to stay in it sometimes. takes some weird flight angles.
amazing work they do. stuff flying around everywhere inside the plane when they go thru the wall sometimes. like being on an ocean ship in a big storm
Read Jeff Master's account if flying into the eye of Hurricane Hugo - you can find it on the Weather Underground site - listed below his blog. It is an astonishing and very scary tale!
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
...RINA MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 87.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESO
------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
Hurricane Rina is a Category 1 Hurricane located at 19.5° N, 87.1° W with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, gusting to 85 mph
Rina remains still poses dangers as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula today.
Rina has weakened to a tropical storm and will make landfall along the northeastern Yucatan coast near Cozumel later today or early tonight. Rina will then continue north along the coast later tonight into Friday before slowly shifting away to the east over the weekend. There will be damaging wind and flooding rain along the northeastern Yucatan coast today through Friday, tapering off Friday night. A storm surge of 1-3 feet will occur near and just north of the landfall. The latest satellite pictures show a significant disorganized area of clouds around Rina. This has caused winds to drop to 70 mph, and that trend will likely continue. Strong west-southwest winds aloft will weaken Rina even more over the weekend as the low-level center drifts eastward toward Cuba the mid-level feature heads across South Florida with heavy rain.
We have been monitoring an area of convection moving across the southern Caribbean. Although a trough is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, development into a tropical system appears unlikely for the next several days.
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COMBINATION OF RINA WEAKENING TO A SHALLOW VORTEX AND RISING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURES TO ITS NORTHWEST SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO TURN SOUTHWARD. WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RINA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PERSIST NEAR OR OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THIS... ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CYCLONE...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING. BASED ON THIS AND THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RINA TO MEET AN EARLIER DEMISE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 48 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE STRUCTURE AND LOCATION OF THE REMNANTS OF RINA THE FORECAST OF REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
Tropical Storm Rina Affecting Cancun and Cozumel Tonight Accuweather, Oct 27, 2011 5:26 PM
Rina continues to weaken. However, it is expected to slowly move north along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night. The main threat from Rina is heavy rainfall. Between 3-6 inches of rain is expected to fall across Cancun and Cozumel through the night. Wind gusts could be locally damaging, but Rina's winds will likely continue to diminish through tonight. The satellite picture continues to show Rina weakening. The center of circulation is now to the south of the strongest convection. The convection will continue to be ripped away from the low-level center of circulation through tomorrow. This will leave nothing more than a low-level swirl of clouds by the weekend.
Tropical Depression Rina is located at 21.8° N, 86.6° W with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 45 mph
Slow-moving and meandering Rina will continue to impact eastern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba for days.
Rina continues to weaken. However, it is expected to slowly move north along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The main threat from Rina is rainfall. Another 1-2 inches of rain is expected to fall across Cancun and Cozumel during the day Friday. Wind gusts could be locally strong, but Rina's winds will continue to diminish as the system weakens. The satellite picture continues to show Rina weakening. The center of circulation is now to the south of the strongest convection thanks to strong upper-level wind shear. The convection will continue to be ripped away from the low-level center of circulation today as shear is not expected to change much. This will leave nothing more than a low-level swirl of clouds by the weekend, when eventually Rina will turn around and begin to drift south and back out over the Caribbean as a remnant low.
We have also been monitoring a tropical wave over the southern Caribbean. Although the wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, development into a tropical system appears unlikely for the next several days.
A third system, a low pressure center to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, is producing an area of area of showers and thunderstorms; however, due to wind shear aloft, it is currently not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone anytime of the next couple of days.
Things are back to normal in the country of Belize after a number of people were returned to their homes following evacuations due to Hurricane Rina. NEMO oversaw the return of islanders and other evacuees this morning. Huricane Rina continues to weaken and Will move slowly to the north near the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today and Friday, likely as a weakening tropical storm. Even so, Rina is poses a threat of strong winds and maybe some storm surge and waves along portions of the North Eastern Yucatan coast. Meanwhile, there are no significant systems and no new tropical cyclones expected to form for at least the next couple of days. Rina is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Accuweather seems a bit off in calling Rina a CAT1 hurricane --- if the winds are 50MPH, Rina is not a hurricane. The headline is right but the text is wrong - would hate to rely on their writers for important info.
thats a typo on my part Diane sorry about that. I fixed it.... Marty
Last edited by Marty; 10/28/1112:28 PM. Reason: fix typo
Accuweather seems a bit off in calling Rina a CAT1 hurricane --- if the winds are 50MPH, Rina is not a hurricane. The headline is right but the text is wrong - would hate to rely on their writers for important info.
You inadvertanlty (with much appreciation) turned me onto this site Diane, I really like it. Many thanks to San Pedro Weather (Amanda and Callum) for hosting the link... Storm Pulse
Tropical Storm Rina is being ripped apart by strong upper-level southerly winds creating 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Visible satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Rina is just a naked swirl over Cancun, on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The shear has torn away Rina's heavy thunderstorms so that they lie about 200 miles to the northeast of the center. Cancun radar shows almost no rain affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, even though the center of the storm is directly over Cancun. Last night, Rina brought wind gusts of up to 41 mph to Cancun and 43 mph at Cozumel, where 8.20" of rain fell yesterday. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be very minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business today.
Rina will continue to be sheared apart today, with the low level center expected to drift slowly southwards along the Yucatan coast. Long range radar out of Key West shows that moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is bringing rain to the Southwest coast of Florida. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches are likely over the Florida Keys and South Florida through Sunday due to moisture from Rina. Wind shear should be able to destroy the circulation of Rina by Saturday.
Figure 1. What tropical storm? It's hard to tell a tropical storm with 45 mph winds was centered over this beach in Cancun, Mexico this morning. Rina's heavy rains and strong wind were several hundred miles to the northeast of Cancun this morning, thanks to strong upper-level winds that sheared the storm apart.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rina showing the center of circulation over the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles to the northeast of the center.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Honduras is drifting slowly northwest at less than 5 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is giving the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Heavy rains from the disturbance will affect Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and Nicaragua Friday through Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though we will continue to see disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean that could generate something.
Ha! That little minx looks like she may just slip impotently through the channel into the Gulf with wings clipped and not rebound at all...hurray for Southerly Shearing Winds!
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011
AN ASCAT OVERPASS NEAR 1600 UTC SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF RINA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. A SMALL AREA OF 25-KT WINDS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS IN MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE HAS BEEN NO ORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS NEAR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF RINA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...RINA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO CONTINUING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/4. THE REMNANTS OF RINA ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RINA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
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