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#419554 - 10/22/11 06:31 PM Hurricane Rina
SP Daily Offline

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#419555 - 10/22/11 07:17 PM Re: Uh Oh... [Re: SP Daily]
Marty Online   happy

Accuweather 5pm

We continue to watch a low pressure center in the southwest Caribbean Sea. It is located just off the east coast of Nicaragua and is only slowly drifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized over the last 12 hours despite upper-level shear being light enough for further organization. A strong area of high pressure located to the north of this feature will likely steer it into Central America on Sunday, limiting any chance for development this weekend.

An upper-level trough of low pressure will sink to the southeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, then across Florida on Monday. We think this will steer the tropical low on a more northward track toward the northwest Caribbean Sea early next week. The waters of the northwest Caribbean have a deep warm layer which is favorable for organization and intensification. If the shear remains light aloft over the northwest Caribbean, and this system gets over these deep warm waters, we could see a tropical storm develop at the least. However, one limiting factor will be a lot of dry air perched over the Gulf of Mexico that could get drawn into the circulation and slow the process down. Later next week, a strong upper-level trough associated with a cold front will deepen across Texas toward the Gulf of Mexico and we feel this will help to steer the tropical cyclone to the north and east. Florida, Cuba or the Bahamas could wind up in the path of this system later next week.

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#419556 - 10/22/11 07:34 PM Re: Uh Oh... [Re: SP Daily]
BrusselSprout Offline
No! NO! NO!!!!!!!!!!
_________________________
www.sanpedroscoop.com

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#419557 - 10/22/11 07:49 PM Re: Uh Oh... [Re: SP Daily]
Diane Campbell Offline
Hey there Sprout - 50 MPH we can take without a problem.
Chill and do not freak out until it gets to 150 - then a good EEEk is in order.
BUT we've been there and done that and survived too. The main thing is to be prepared for inconvenience ......... and the more prepared you are the less inconvenienced you are.

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#419559 - 10/22/11 08:04 PM Re: Uh Oh... [Re: Diane Campbell]
SP Daily Offline
Excellent advice....

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#419560 - 10/22/11 08:22 PM Re: Uh Oh... [Re: SP Daily]
elbert Offline
Yep, 50 to 60 and i just tie the boat good nothing to worry about, 70 to 100 I pull it up on the beach, 100 to 150 I tie it to a coconut tree :-)
_________________________
The Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/

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#419562 - 10/22/11 08:35 PM Re: Uh Oh... [Re: elbert]
SP Daily Offline
Thats good..and when the waves get to 40'?

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#419565 - 10/22/11 11:42 PM Re: Uh Oh... [Re: SP Daily]
SimonB Offline
If it doesn't improve I'm outta here early Monday and into the mangroves in Placencia or down to Rio Dulce.

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#419566 - 10/23/11 07:11 AM Re: Uh Oh... [Re: SP Daily]
BrusselSprout Offline
I hate it. HATE IT! GO THE F AWAY RINA!
_________________________
www.sanpedroscoop.com

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#419570 - 10/23/11 09:00 AM Re: Uh Oh... [Re: SP Daily]
Marty Online   happy
Jeff Masters late last night:

The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

Accuweather 8am

We continue to watch a low pressure center in the southwest Caribbean Sea. It is located roughly 150 miles east-southeast of the Honduras and Nicaragua border. Satellite imagery continues to show robust yet disorganized shower and thunderstorm development associated with this low pressure center. This feature will continue to slowly move off to the north or northwest over the next 12 to 24 hours, so it should remain offshore over the warm waters of the western Caribbean.

An upper-level trough of low pressure will sink to the southeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico today, then across Florida on Monday. We think this will steer the tropical low on a more northward and eventually northwestward track across the Caribbean early this week.

The waters of the northwest Caribbean have a deep warm layer which is favorable for organization and intensification. If the shear remains light aloft over the northwest Caribbean, and this system gets over these deep warm waters, we could see a tropical storm develop at the least.

However, one limiting factor will be a lot of dry air perched over the Gulf of Mexico that could get drawn into the circulation and slow the process down. Later this week, a strong upper-level trough associated with a cold front will deepen across Texas toward the Gulf of Mexico and we feel this will help to steer the tropical cyclone to the north and east during the latter half of the week. This movement would bring any potential tropical system or at the very least its moisture northeastward across Florida, Cuba or the Bahamas during the last half of the week.

Note by editor: "We could see a Tropical Storm at the least." Doesn't sound like it's going to be super strong AT THIS POINT.

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