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#419935 - 10/26/11 03:08 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: SP Daily]
Chica Blanca Offline
High waves are rolling over the reef at Basil Jones.

_________________________
Coleen

Beach bum, butterfly stalker, native plant enthusiast.

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#419936 - 10/26/11 03:24 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: SP Daily]
Marty Offline
Accuweather

Oct 26, 2011 1:10 PM

Hurricane Rina Rapidy Weakens

Hurricane Rina is a Category 1 Hurricane located at 18.0° N, 85.7° W with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 100 mph

Although Hurricane Rina has weakened, it remains on a collision course with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Rina has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane this afternoon with winds at 85 mph. Rina is much less organized than yesterday as the hurricane has entrained some dry air from the north. This intrusion of dry air has resulted in an erosion of the eye wall. There is also about 15-20 knots of southerly shear impeding the outflow.

Rina will make landfall along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday. Heavy rain from Rina will result in flooding and mudslides across the Yucatan Peninsula today through Thursday. Winds will increase across the coast of the Yucatan today, and hurricane-force gusts are possible Thursday which may result in damage and power outages.

After Thursday, Rina will continue to battle dry air intrusion along with increasing southerly shear. This along with Rina's interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 36 hours will result in further weakening. An upper-level trough building over the eastern United States late in the week and weekend will help to steer Rina in a more eastward fashion after its interaction with the Yucatan tomorrow. This upper-level trough over the eastern United States will also produce more wind shear over Rina resulting in further weakening and Rina may weaken to tropical storm status by Friday over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Most computer models then turn what is left of Rina to the southeast over the weekend around the vicinity of western Cuba. While there may be an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday across the Florida Keys and far southern Florida, AccuWeather believes that Rina will be in a weakened state by this time as it makes a turn to the southeast toward Cuba. Although Rina is expected to weaken, heavy rain may bring flooding to western parts of Cuba later Friday into the weekend.


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#419941 - 10/26/11 04:51 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: SP Daily]
Marty Offline
Hurricane Hunter flight in 20 minutes ago.... flight path on the right

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 20:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 20:05:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1808'N 8554'W (18.1333N 85.9W)
B. Center Fix Location: 157 miles (252 km) to the ENE (74) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,937m (9,636ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the W (279) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33 at 76kts (From the NNE at ~ 87.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WNW (282) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9C (48F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16C (61F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12C (54F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:10:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:10:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYE DROP REPORTED SLP OF 981MB AND 24KT SFC WIND

The Lockheed WC-130J aircraft is a venerable workhorse. It flies directly into the hurricane, typically penetrating the hurricane's eye several times per mission at altitudes between 500 feet (150 m) and 10,000 feet (3,000 m). The 53rd WRS Hurricane Hunters operate ten WC-130J aircraft for weather reconnaissance.

The Lockheed WP-3D Orion aircraft flown by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters are heavily instrumented flying laboratories specifically modified to take atmospheric and radar measurements within tropical cyclones and winter storms.

The NOAA G-IV Gulfstream high altitude jet conducts hurricane surveillance flying upwards of 4,000 miles (6,400 km) each flight to document upper and lower level winds that affect the movement of tropical cyclones. The hurricane models (computer models predicting hurricane tracks and intensity) mainly utilize NOAA G-IV dropwindsonde data that is collected both day and night in storms affecting the United States.

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#419943 - 10/26/11 05:04 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: SP Daily]
Marty Offline
NEMO PRESS RELEASE # 7

At 12:00midday the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 18.1 N, Latitude and 85.8 W, Longitude or about 164 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west north west at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds have decreased from 110 to 85 mph. Tropical Storm force winds extends out to 115 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 25 miles from the centre. Rina weakened significantly when it moved over cool waters. Rina now poses a lesser threat to Belize.

Shelter occupation in the Orange Walk & Belize District including Belize City is currently suspended. Corozal District remains the only area of concern due to the proximity of the Hurricane. Rina is approximately 170 mph east south east of Corozal Town. In Belmopan all evacuees will be transported back to San Pedro tomorrow. Evacuation from the Cayes has ceased.

Classes will resume tomorrow.

NEMO continues to monitor Hurricane Rina as it begins to move away from Belize.


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#419945 - 10/26/11 05:42 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: SP Daily]
Marty Offline
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA
WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF RINA NEARS THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

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#419949 - 10/26/11 06:34 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: SP Daily]
Marty Offline
Liquor sales approved. Mayor just said!

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#419951 - 10/26/11 06:43 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: SP Daily]
Marty Offline

Hurricane Rina weakens as it slides toward the Yucatan
Jeff Masters

9:12 PM GMT on October 26, 2011

Hurricane Rina has unraveled a bit since yesterday afternoon, but still packs category 1 winds of 85 mph. Rina is moving steadily to the northwest at 6 mph, and the center of the hurricane is expected to reach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission, which ended at 4:30pm EDT, found maximum surface winds around 85 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 976mb. Rina is battling some moderate wind shear (at least 10-15 knots) this afternoon, which is helping to break down the upper-level outflow of the hurricane, which is now only present on the northeast side of the cyclone. The most recent integrated kinetic energy analysis of the hurricane (Figure 1) illustrates Rina's disorganization, with the strongest winds (in yellow) located on the northeast side. The southern end of the storm looks rather bare, likely due to moderately strong southerly wind shear, which is acting to tear that side of the hurricane apart. The destructive potential rating, which is estimated by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, has is now 1.5 for wind and 2.0 for storm surge and waves on a 0 to 6 scale.

Despite its ragged appearance and obvious weakening, Hurricane Rina is still expected to bring heavy rain and strong wind gusts to the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind speed on Cozumel had been steadily increasing since this morning, though have leveled off in the past few hours. Wind speed will increase again soon as Rina moves closer to the island. This station has also reported 3.25 inches of rain so far, but like Jeff said in this morning's blog, surrounding personal weather stations have only reported up to an inch of rain. Cancun's radar shows Rina's outer bands moving over the peninsula, and strong rain was reported in the city earlier this afternoon. A Yucatan Basin buoy is reporting wind speeds close to 30 mph, and waves around 8 feet so far. Having seen some photos of the Cancun beaches, wave height has increased there, as well, although aren't near 8 feet quite yet.


Figure 1. Hurricane Rina's wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Rina taken at 4:31pm EDT.

Forecast for Hurricane Rina
The forecast for Rina remains mostly in line with earlier forecasts, although the intensity has been decreased significantly and the track through Friday has shifted slightly to the east. Rina will continue to move north-northwest toward Cozumel over the next 24 hours, likely making landfall Thursday afternoon and evening. Beyond this, the models have changed their tune since yesterday. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF are all forecasting Rina to weaken significantly after coming in contact with the Yucatan Peninsula, but instead of a forecast track toward southern Florida, they are now calling for Rina to linger in the Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure and disturbed weather until the middle of next week, when it finally is swept out by a trough. The official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center have conveyed this possibility well in the 4 and 5 day track forecasts so far. This afternoon, they're calling for Rina to weaken to a tropical storm after landfall, at which point it will begin its clockwise turn back into the Caribbean while weakening further to a depression. The forecast surge has decreased to 2 to 4 feet, likely due to both the weakening of the hurricane and its relatively small wind radius, and heavy rain and flooding are still a concern for the Yucatan and Cozumel.


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#419955 - 10/26/11 07:00 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: SP Daily]
Bear Offline
That hole in Rina's backside (errrr..sorry) is a problem for any self respecting hurricane...

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#419958 - 10/26/11 07:03 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: Bear]
SP Daily Offline
Anyone who would joke about a hurricane has never been through one. Bad form!

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#419959 - 10/26/11 07:08 PM Re: Hurricane Rina [Re: SP Daily]
Amanda Syme Offline
What will the depression do when it drops back down into the Caribbean I wonder?

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