Looks mostly north and east of us at this point...
A developing storm system over the Caribbean will produce downpours from Hispaniola and Cuba to the Bahamas and South Florida into the weekend.
A non-tropical weather system is taking shape over the northwestern Caribbean and will direct a moist flow of air during the last part of the week and into the weekend.
The developing feature is associated with a pool of cool air at upper levels of the atmosphere and the tail end of an old frontal zone. This creates instability and leads to rising columns of air, producing showers and thunderstorms.
Sometimes these type of features can change character and switch from a cold core system to a warm core, tropical storm during the warm weather season. However, that is not likely to be the case this time.
The effect of the rather large system will be to bring the chance of rainfall from part of the Mexico Yucatan Peninsula eastward to part of Hispaniola initially. Eventually, downpours can reach into part of South Florida and the Bahamas by the weekend.
The overall intensity of the downpours and the extent of the rain will depend on how strong and organized the feature becomes. There is the potential for a couple of inches of rain, where the downpours persist or repeat.
The rain is certainly needed as it is occurring during a dry part of the year and much of this region is experiencing abnormally dry to drought conditions. However, vacationers and those with outdoor plans may not be happy with the forecast and the atmosphere's plans.