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#440196 - 06/09/12 02:57 PM TD In The Northwest Caribbean next weekend?
Marty Offline

I Am Becoming More Confident That Tropical Development Will Occur In The Northwest Caribbean Or Southern Gulf Of Mexico As Early As Next Weekend
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Saturday, June 9, 2012 9:24 am

A good majority of the forecast guidance is now pointing towards tropical development to occur in the far northwestern Caribbean sometime next weekend and for this tropical system to track northward across the Gulf of Mexico shortly thereafter. With such strong model agreement and consistency, my confidence is growing that we will have the development of Tropical Storm Chris by sometime next weekend.

Looking over each individual model member: The GFS model continues to be consistent in that low pressure will develop over Central America sometime on Friday and track into the northwestern Caribbean late next weekend and slowly strengthens before tracking northward into the Gulf of Mexico by June 19th and 20th.

The European model forecasts that a tropical system will form very near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula next Sunday and track just north of the Bay of Campeche by about June 18th. The forecast upper-level pattern in about 10-12 days from now would support a track towards the upper Texas coast or southwestern Louisiana by around June 21st. Considering the fact that the European model is now very consistent in the forecast development of a tropical cyclone I am more confident that we will have tropical development in the northwest Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico region sometime next weekend.

European Model Forecast For June 13th:


The experimental FIM model forecasts the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Honduras by next Sunday and that this tropical storm will track through the Yucatan Channel by June 19th and track northward right towards the northern Gulf states by about June 20th.

For the next 5 days or so, I am pretty confident in saying that tropical cyclone development is not expected anywhere in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Starting as early as Friday, June 15th, I think that we will see a tropical disturbance take hold somewhere between the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel. I am forecasting that this disturbance will track into the southern Gulf of Mexico next weekend and become our third named storm of the 2012 Hurricane Season, Chris. A track north-northwestward towards the northwestern or northern Gulf states seems possible based on the forecast upper-level pattern during the week of June 18th.

This increasing confidence of tropical development next weekend is backed up by the fact that the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to be in an upward motion phase as the Atlantic during the period of June 18th and June 23rd. Additionally, the overall global forecast guidance is showing that a strong ridge of high pressure will develop from the Great Lakes into Hudson Bay by next weekend and into the following week. This type of setup leads to lowering barometric pressures over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean and a lot of times a tropical cyclone pops out of this pattern.

So, based on everything I have looked at I think the Gulf of Mexico and far northwestern Caribbean has a pretty decent chance of seeing tropical development as early as next weekend and continuing into the week of June 18th.

Needless to say, I am keeping very close tabs on this possibility and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Monday morning.


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#440345 - 06/12/12 12:32 PM Re: TD In The Northwest Caribbean next weekend? [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Mischief Possible Off Of US Southeast Coast By Late This Week; I Continue To Believe That Tropical Development Is Very Possible In The Northwest Caribbean Or Southern Gulf Of Mexico Within The Next 7 to 9 Days
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, June 12, 2012 6:07 am

The overall weather pattern for the rest of this week into this weekend consists of a frontal system passage across the Florida Peninsula on Thursday into Friday, across the Florida Straits on Saturday and into the northwestern Caribbean late this weekend into early next week. At the same time, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop about halfway between the US Southeast coast and Bermuda from Friday into this weekend. This particular low pressure system is then forecast to shoot off to the northeast into the open Atlantic by early next week. There is some chance for this low pressure system to acquire sub-tropical characteristics and it will be something that will be monitored in the coming days.

Now, the entire pattern, including the fact that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be moving into Octants 8 and 1 starting around June 18th indicates that the atmosphere may be setting up in a way that leads to tropical development in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico within the next week. The Tropical Precipitable Water loop from CIMSS clearly shows a surge of energy tracking across the central Caribbean. This surge of energy is expected to reach the western Caribbean by early Wednesday morning. I think that the environment is more favorable in the western Caribbean and an increase in thunderstorm activity is expected across the western Caribbean by Wednesday.

The overall wind shear forecast is for a more favorable environment in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend into next week. All of these factors, the favorable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, increasing energy and moisture and lowering wind shear values leads me to believe that tropical cyclone development is quite possible by this weekend or early next week.

The NOGAPS model is the most aggressive by far as it forecasts the development of a tropical storm by Thursday of this week in the western Caribbean. It then forecasts this tropical storm to quickly become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean by Saturday and aim its sights towards western Florida and the Florida Panhandle early next week. I want to be blunt and say that I DO NOT believe this particular model solution and have thrown it out of my forecast reasoning process.

The Canadian model forecasts the development of a tropical storm in the western Caribbean by about next Tuesday and forecasts this tropical storm to be located in the western Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days from now.

Canadian Model Forecast For Thursday, June 21st:


The GFS model guidance hints at tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean by late this weekend and eventually splits into two low pressure systems. One near the northwestern Bahamas and other in the western Caribbean by about next Tuesday.

Finally, the European model guidance forecasts the development of a low pressure system in the northwestern Caribbean early next week and forecasts this system to get into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by about next Wednesday and the central Gulf of Mexico by next Thursday.

I may be stubborn in saying that I strongly believe that tropical development will occur in the western Caribbean sometime between Sunday and Tuesday (June 17th and June 19th). There is just too much evidence with current data to not ignore this possibility and call it the way I see it. I continue to monitor this potential closely and will keep you all updated on the latest.



Edited by Marty (06/12/12 12:32 PM)

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