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#443740 - 08/02/12 04:23 AM Hurricane Ernesto
Marty Offline

Here is an update on Tropical Depression #5 which formed from the area of disturbed weather in the west central Atlantic this evening... Stay informed and BE PREPARED!


Atmospheric conditions will become favourable for strengthening of TD # 5 as it approaches the Windward Islands and enter the eastern Caribbean. The NHC forecast track moves the system WNW to just south of Jamaica by next Monday afternoon as a hurricane; while the GFS model 850 mb level vorticity projection (Figure 2) has the vorticity maximum center or Low slowing down and moving towards the southern or central Yucatan coast by 12:00pm on Thursday, August 9, 2012.

All interests in the eastern, central and western Caribbean should continue to monitor the progress of TD # 5 as it moves generally WNW during the next 24-48 hours.


CLICK HERE for the full Belize Mid Week Weather Report



Edited by Marty (08/07/12 07:35 PM)

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#443774 - 08/02/12 03:11 PM Re: Tropical Depression #5 [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

TD 5 strugging
Jeff Masters

2:04 PM GMT on August 02, 2012

A disheveled Tropical Depression Five is clinging to life in the face of stiff wind shear and dry air, as the storm heads towards the Lesser Antilles Islands with a forward speed of 20 mph. The depression is very ragged looking on visible satellite loops. The depression has only a small area of heavy thunderstorms, which are on the south side of the center due to high wind shear and dry air on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 15 - 20 knots. Water vapor satellite loops show that TD 5 is at the southern edge of a large area of dry air. Wind shear due to strong upper level winds from the west is driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. The first Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 5 Thursday afternoon to give us a better idea of its strength.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 5.

Forecast for TD 5
TD 5's west to west-northwest motion should bring its outer rain bands to Barbados early Friday morning, and high winds and heavy rain will spread over the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon. Since wind shear will be higher on the storm's north side, I expect the heaviest weather will be on the south side of TD 5, over the Windward Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. However, the reliable ECMWF model predicts higher shear on Friday and Saturday, which could tear TD 5 apart. A number of our reliable computer models predict TD 5 will not survive its passage through the islands this weekend. However, most of the models agree that once TD 5 (or its remnants) pass enter the Central Caribbean on Monday, wind shear will fall to the low range, and strengthening (or regeneration) can occur. Once TD 5 enters the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning TD 5 more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico. An equally likely scenario at this point is that TD 5 will not turn, and instead will take a more westerly path over the Yucatan Peninsula. The long-term forecast for what the storm will do once it gets to the Western Caribbean depends upon whether or not TD 5 survives during the next two days.


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#443776 - 08/02/12 03:17 PM Re: Tropical Depression #5 [Re: Marty]
elbert Offline
Masters, "disheveled Tropical Depression Five is clinging to life in the face of stiff wind shear and dry air"
Poor little TD, Masters almost makes you feel sorry for it :-)
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http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/

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#443787 - 08/02/12 04:04 PM Re: Tropical Depression #5 [Re: Marty]
Diane Campbell Offline
The hurricane folks have had little or nothing to report on this side of the globe this year --- I am pleased as punch with that scenario.

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#443790 - 08/02/12 04:53 PM Re: Tropical Depression #5 [Re: Marty]
shuffles Offline
@Elbert.... "almost".....
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#443813 - 08/02/12 11:51 PM Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Tropical Depression 5 Has Become Tropical Storm Ernesto

CLICK HERE for complete Tropical Weather Report





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#443862 - 08/03/12 03:51 PM Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto [Re: Marty]
Diane Campbell Offline
Ernesto survived the night and is building an eye-wall.
Jeff Masters' assessment is that the storm will eventually track north of us heading into the Gulf.
One computer model has the storm making landfall in Belize, whilst others take it along the path Masters suggests.
Please use the presence of this weather event as a reminder to be prepared for emergencies.
If you need a hurricane planning guide I can post one - or Marty can direct you to a site where you can read up on what to do.

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#443864 - 08/03/12 04:00 PM Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Here is some general information on hurricanes in Belize:

http://ambergriscaye.com/hurricane/

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#443927 - 08/04/12 01:00 PM Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Will Ernesto become a hurricane threat to Belize?

Chief Meteorologist Dennis Gonguez told Amandala late this evening that Belizeans should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which formed east of the Lesser Antilles earlier today and which could potentially become the second hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Gonguez said that the present track projects the storm as moving west and then making a slight turn north sometime over Sunday night and into Monday. That, said Gonguez, would put the storm just near Belize.

“What we are looking for over the weekend is a more northward turn. If we don’t see that materialize, we will have to hasten preparations,” Gonguez told our newspaper.

Tropical storm warnings—meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area case within 12 to 24 hours—have been posted for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles have been advised to continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Gonguez said that the weather system, which had maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour this evening, is expected to continue moving at a pace of 22 miles per hour, which, he noted, is not healthy for its development.

“When they move too fast, the environment does not become conducive to development,” the Chief Meteorologist said, adding that he is not expecting any rapid strengthening of the system.

However, he said that if the storm survives while moving at such a fast speed, it could become a minimal hurricane at the most.

“We have more confidence in the track forecast than the intensity forecast,” said Gonguez, speaking of the long-range predictions.

For Belize, he said, the weekend should be relatively quiet and dry.

With the development of Tropical Storm Ernesto from Tropical Depression #5, said Gonguez, the season’s performance is matching meteorological predictions made for 2012. The National Hurricane Center in Miami had said that “...there’s a 70 percent chance of 9 to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those 1 to 3 will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5).”

Two named storms, Alberto and Beryl, formed ahead of the official June 1 start-date of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Since then, Hurricane Chris, Tropical Storm Debby and now Tropical Storm Ernesto, the fifth storm of the season, have emerged.

In a cautionary note, Gonguez emphasized that although the season appears to be average or slightly below average, it only takes one system to wreak havoc.

Amandala

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#443935 - 08/04/12 01:48 PM Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto [Re: Marty]
SFJeff Offline
...some of the latest info... storm looks better organized than when the above piece was written. Not a lot of confidence/consensus in either intensity or path... other than it will get stronger, keep heading west and probably(?) curve north... one to keep an eye on.

==================

NHC discussion as of 5:00 AM EST

The low-shear environment and improved structure of the cyclone suggest at least steady intensification over the next couple of days. However...the disagreement in the intensity guidance continues. The SHIPS and lgem still show a faster pace of intensification...while the dynamical models show strengthening at a much slower rate. Given the current trends...the official forecast has been adjusted upward and shows Ernesto becoming a hurricane in 36 hours...but remains below the statistical-dynamical guidance. Later in the period...the GFDL shows more intensification than earlier runs...but the HWRF and much of the hfip guidance remain weaker. At days 3 through 5 the new NHC forecast has been adjusted upward slightly...and is close to the iv15 consensus and the Florida state superensemble. Needless to say...there is low confidence in the intensity forecast through the period.

The initial motion estimate is 275/16 as Ernesto is situated south
of the subtropical ridge. The track model guidance is in good
agreement through 48 hours in showing a continued westward motion
as the ridge builds westward to north of the cyclone. Through this
time the NHC forecast is simply an update of the previous one. At
days 3 through 5 there continues to be large spread in the model
guidance. The biggest change this cycle is a southward shift in the
UKMET...which now joins the GFS and ECMWF in showing that Ernesto
will remain too far south to move into a weakness in the
subtropical ridge that develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in
4 to 5 days. However...the GFDL...HWRF...and several of the hfip
models continue to show Ernesto gaining more latitude in the second
half of the forecast period. The NHC forecast has been adjusted a
little to the south toward the new multi-model consensus at days 3
through 5...but still lies to the right of the center of the
guidance envelope.

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