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#446818 - 09/17/12 12:31 PM Watching Invest 92L
Marty Offline

Invest 92L which is located about 200 miles to the east of the Windward Islands is void of any thunderstorm activity this morning. I do not expect tropical development from this system due to unfavorable upper level winds. Additionally, none of the global forecast guidance forecasts any sort of development from it. Nevertheless, I will keep an eye on Invest 92L, especially when it reaches the western Caribbean late this week where climatology says we should look for development.

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Edited by Marty (09/17/12 12:33 PM)

#446833 - 09/17/12 04:45 PM Re: Watching Invest 92L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

92L and 93L not a threat
Jeff Masters

2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.


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