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#450014 - 10/29/12 08:50 PM Long Range Weather Forecasting
Bear Offline
Out of curiosity, do any of you believe long range weather forecasts for Caye? I dont particularly given the dynamic environment in the Carribean but I've been trying to convince some folks that a forecast for a week from now bears little likelihood to the reality...

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#450019 - 10/29/12 09:58 PM Re: Long Range Weather Forecasting [Re: Bear]
PSUhorty Offline
Originally Posted By: Bear
Out of curiosity, do any of you believe long range weather forecasts for Caye? I dont particularly given the dynamic environment in the Carribean but I've been trying to convince some folks that a forecast for a week from now bears little likelihood to the reality...

No matter where you are, long range forecasts are highly suspect. Temperature trends a week out are reasonably accurate, but precip and cloudiness is very unreliable.

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#450024 - 10/29/12 11:15 PM Re: Long Range Weather Forecasting [Re: Bear]
elbert Offline
I hardly believe short range forecasts, unless its falling on my head I'd say the sky is firmly in place no matter what Don Little says.
The Caribbean is extremely unpredictable, that's why I get so upset with hurricane predictions. People believe them and it affects my business dramatically. When the weatherman speaketh, in my humble opinion he knoweth not,
especially when it come to my little tear drop on the tip of the Yucatan.
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#450030 - 10/29/12 11:50 PM Re: Long Range Weather Forecasting [Re: Bear]
Bear Offline
Pretty much my take...ditto on your input as well PSU.


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#450037 - 10/30/12 02:10 AM Re: Long Range Weather Forecasting [Re: elbert]
bywarren Offline
"The Caribbean is extremely unpredictable, that's why I get so upset with hurricane predictions. People believe them and it effects my business dramatically."

Damn those people who effet your business when their safety is "unpredictable". sick

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#450038 - 10/30/12 02:16 AM Re: Long Range Weather Forecasting [Re: bywarren]
Ernie B Offline
"effect" ( sorry, Sir) grin
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#450040 - 10/30/12 02:42 AM Re: Long Range Weather Forecasting [Re: Bear]
Mike Campbell Offline
Depends on what you are looking at. Some weather patters are very predictable such as tropical waves that are tracked all across the Atlantic and Caribbean and cold fronts coming down from the north. Hurricane forecasts are usually completely misunderstood and do have a high degree of accuracy based on the time element but most just lump all those storms in one basket and run when there is no reason to run. Usually no way to predict just where a hurricane will go a week out. Local weather can change in just a few hours. A lot depends on what you are trying to predict and the time of the year. Unstable conditions make predictions chancy but on the whole meteorology is a science just very complex. A few days is usually accurate but weather holds many surprises because of its complex nature..

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#450043 - 10/30/12 03:49 AM Re: Long Range Weather Forecasting [Re: elbert]
Sunny Reef Offline
Originally Posted By: elbert
...., that's why I get so upset with hurricane predictions. People believe them and it effects my business dramatically....


Totally agree with Elbert: I remember (I think it was in 2007) we had 3 spring months with lower temperature in Belize and the consequence was that the temperature of the ocean was lower than usually and every child could have guessed that we should get a low activity hurricane season.

In May all these "specialists" forecasted an extremely active hurricane season even the NOAA and at least the NOAA later corrected. But all these "I-feel-so-important-trash-talkers" did so much damage on the businesses in Belize and I really would be interested to know how many hundreds of tourists had decided to not come to Belize.

A possible hurricane can be monitored very good and our systems work very well to evacuate and make our visitors feel safe and instead of publishing this capability and calm down all people who might be sacred we scare them with unproved guessing and spreading insecure outlooks
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#450044 - 10/30/12 04:32 AM Re: Long Range Weather Forecasting [Re: Sunny Reef]
Bear Offline
Although I agree with much of the sentiment associated with misguided predictions and premature evacuation. Hurricanes are a whole different matter, far more serious but not really the intended target of my current ire. So I'd like to put Hurricanes on the shelf for a minute.

Certainly the models used to track those beasts are subject to their own vagaries but I'm not talking about that kind of barometric scale. I'm talking about Accuweather or Weather Undeground or Yahoo or any of the browser based meteorologic pablum which insist that 6 days from now were going to have 5 straight days of torrential rain. The result being a flurry of frenzied emails regarding the quality of vaction experience to be had...Any reply of mine, intended to be both realistic and re-assuring, is countered with skepticism and includes a link to one of the aformentioned websites...a demand for a "weather discount" is surely just over the phantastic cloudy horizon.

I mean I'm looking at barometric and temperature gradient charts, SST maps, large to macro scale sat photos (from water vapor to infrared), and I simply dont see anything that would even hint that this is in the extended forecast...so where is this crap coming from?

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#450048 - 10/30/12 05:08 AM Re: Long Range Weather Forecasting [Re: Bear]
Mike Campbell Offline
One of the problems is that on any given day it rains somewhere in Belize. The problem is that our weather is not the same as Belize weather. It can rain for 5 days straight on the mainland and we will never get a drop. They give Belize weather, not San Pedro weather. We receive less rain than any other part of the country and it does create problems as tourists dont realize those things.

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